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Now That the Season is Over, Who Transfers Out?

IowasLaw

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Nov 19, 2019
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Illinois had a guy announce he was entering the transfer portal 10 minutes after his team was bounced from the dance. Players unhappy with their situations have likely been planning their exit strategies for months. So now that Iowa's season has come to an unceremonious conclusion, losing 3 in a row to some really poor teams, which players are most likely to seek opportunities elsewhere? Here they are in order of most likely to leave.

1. Ogundele (75% likelihood of transfer). Josh is the most likely to announce his transfer. He already tried once, last year, but when not a single suiter came calling, he crawled back to Iowa with his tail between his legs and promised Fran he'd work hard to get in better shape. A year later, Ogundele played in just a hand full of games (which is shocking considering he plays a position of need) and showed little to no improvement over last year. My guess is, Fran sits down with the kid, wishes him luck, and sends him off to a school like Drake that can utilize his size.

2. Bowen (33% likelihood of transfer). Came in with a good amount of hype (and confidence) as a top 20 point guard recruit. While he played quite a bit early on, he saw his minutes dramatically diminish in favor of Fran's son, who started playing more and more. With 18 year olds, ego is everything and I don't think Fran handled Bowen's playing time well at all. There was about a 10 game stretch where Bowen didn't even leave the bench (even though he finished the season 2nd on the team in shooting %), despite some wide margin wins and losses in that time. Look for Bowen to seek out a fresh start, as he's likely not happy with his treatment this year.

3. Perkins (25% likelihood of transfer). There was just something about Perkins' demeanor this year that led me to believe he's unhappy at Iowa. With his occasional flashes of brilliance, he may try to parlay that into some NIL money at a school in need of a scorer. His game reminds me a lot of Isaiah Moss, who had a 32 point game as a freshmen (but only averaged 6 points per game), declared for the NBA as a sophomore before coming back, then transferred to Kansas for his senior year.

4. Mulvey (10% likelihood of transfer). Mulvey actually agreed to give up his senior year of high school basketball to come straight to Iowa because Fran told him he'd get immediate playing time. Instead, Mulvey played about 5 minutes his entire freshmen year and a year of eligibility was burned for nothing. During the offseason, Mulvey was expected to bulk up and greatly improve his game. Unfortunately, a second year of eligibility went by and he never played a meaningful minute (he only played 50 minutes total). If Mulvey resents skipping a year of high school where he could have been the star of his team in favor of being the 12th man off Iowa's bench, or if he resents his lack of playing time his sophomore year, I think he could transfer to a Missouri Valley school and be an instant starter.
 
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Now that Kris and Pilip have exhausted their eligibility I'm expecting Mulvey will get extended minutes at either power forward or the center position. will shall see as if there is any movement to the portal will be within the next week or so. Stay tuned.
 
I'm worried that Bowen will move on. I'm not sure JoshO does, he came back to Iowa after dipping his toes in the portal and didn't show anyone else any reason to offer him this year if he went back in.
 
Now that Kris and Pilip have exhausted their eligibility I'm expecting Mulvey will get extended minutes at either power forward or the center position. will shall see as if there is any movement to the portal will be within the next week or so. Stay tuned.

Can he get some extended minutes in the sun too? Damn that kid's a bright white...
 
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Murray, Josh O, Mulvey, Ulis (in that order of likelihood).
If Ulis were smart, he isn't going anywhere. He starts at a Big 10 program, yet doesn't have the talent to get playing time at a mid-major. He'll never find a better situation than he has at Iowa, where we've got years without even a below average point guard. If he transfers, he will either ride the bench somewhere or play at a non-power 5 school.
 
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Ulis isn't going anywhere. He starts at a Big 10 program, yet doesn't have the talent to get playing time at a mid-major. He'll never find a better situation than he has at Iowa, where we've got years without even a below average point guard.
I'm afraid you may be right - certainly from Ulis' perspective; I wouldn't if I were him. Fran needs to start shedding non-producers. This is big time, high-major hoops. We need to start acting like it.
 
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I'm afraid you may be right - certainly from Ulis' perspective; I wouldn't if I were him. Fran needs to start shedding none-producers. This is big time, high-major hoops. We need to start acting like it.
We used to call that creaning...it may be needed from time to time, but Indiana took it too far.
 
We used to call that creaning...it may be needed from time to time, but Indiana took it too far.
The rules have changed. We have the NIL, the money, in a power conference, national visibility. You want guaranteed ride for all 4 years then then go to a mid-major. This is high-major, D1 basketball.
 
I will be surprised if Perkins leaves as the offense will most likely go through him. I am worried Bowen will leave, given time I think he has a chance to be a really good ball player.

Fran is all about loyalty, no way he "Crean's" anyone.
 
Illinois had a guy announce he was entering the transfer portal 10 minutes after his team was bounced from the dance. Players unhappy with their situations have likely been planning their exit strategies for months. So now that Iowa's season has come to an unceremonious conclusion, losing 3 in a row to some really poor teams, which players are most likely to seek opportunities elsewhere? Here they are in order of most likely to leave.

1. Ogundele (75% likelihood of transfer). Josh is the most likely to announce his transfer. He already tried once, last year, but when not a single suiter came calling, he crawled back to Iowa with his tail between his legs and promised Fran he'd work hard to get in better shape. A year later, Ogundele played in just a hand full of games (which is shocking considering he plays a position of need) and showed little to no improvement over last year. My guess is, Fran sits down with the kid, wishes him luck, and sends him off to a school like Drake that can utilize his size.

2. Bowen (33% likelihood of transfer). Came in with a good amount of hype (and confidence) as a top 20 point guard recruit. While he played quite a bit early on, he saw his minutes dramatically diminish in favor of Fran's son, who started playing more and more. With 18 year olds, ego is everything and I don't think Fran handled Bowen's playing time well at all. There was about a 10 game stretch where Bowen didn't even leave the bench (even though he finished the season 2nd on the team in shooting %), despite some wide margin wins and losses in that time. Look for Bowen to seek out a fresh start, as he's likely not happy with his treatment this year.

3. Perkins (25% likelihood of transfer). There was just something about Perkins' demeanor this year that led me to believe he's unhappy at Iowa. With his occasional flashes of brilliance, he may try to parlay that into some NIL money at a school in need of a scorer. His game reminds me a lot of Isaiah Moss, who had a 32 point game as a freshmen (but only averaged 6 points per game), declared for the NBA as a sophomore before coming back, then transferred to Kansas for his senior year.

4. Mulvey (10% likelihood of transfer). Mulvey actually agreed to give up his senior year of high school basketball to come straight to Iowa because Fran told him he'd get immediate playing time. Instead, Mulvey played about 5 minutes his entire freshmen year and a year of eligibility was burned for nothing. During the offseason, Mulvey was expected to bulk up and greatly improve his game. Unfortunately, a second year of eligibility went by and he never played a meaningful minute (he only played 50 minutes total). If Mulvey resents skipping a year of high school where he could have been the star of his team in favor of being the 12th man off Iowa's bench, or if he resents his lack of playing time his sophomore year, I think he could transfer to a Missouri Valley school and be an instant starter.
Sounds about right to me. Bowen and Mulvey need to be very different players next year.
 
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Honestly I don't expect any one player to transfer, but I imagine there will be a couple.

Why would Perk leave? Sandfort is obviously going to stay to play with his brother.

We'll see about the rest.
 
I really hope that Josh O and Mulvey don't return to just hold the bench down. Either return and contribute or find playing time at a lower level
Exactly. If we don't have some turnover involving at least 3 players (including Murray), it's NIT at best next year...
 
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Ulis isn't going anywhere. He starts at a Big 10 program, yet doesn't have the talent to get playing time at a mid-major. He'll never find a better situation than he has at Iowa, where we've got years without even a below average point guard.

None of us have inner knowledge so this is all speculation.

80% probability Ulis stays. Ulis demand on portal would be low and he'd have to take a step down in prestige. Also Ulis home is Illinois, not many places closer than Iowa. Ulis seems okay with 15 minutes per game..

I think you have underestimated Bowen's probability of transferring. Bowen will go to portal because he would have high market demand + he is from out East to begin with. + Dixon passed him on Fran's rotation + Fran is not type of coach to promise PT. IF the Swarm gave him obscene money, that could change things but I think Perkins would be the primary Swarm target.

I think the Swarm may be able to keep Perkins and he l has to be paid because some other big10 team would pay him if Iowa doesn't.

JoshO---has no alternatives, he already failed to land a spot last year in Portal. I think Fran may seek a Medical retirement scholarship for Josh, but since Fran usually has a couple free schollies anyway, it isn't necessary. JOsh and Mulvey both seem like great teammates.

Kris Murray can get paid wherever he chooses to go. I doubt Swarm has enough NIL money to keep him.

I think Fran may pick up a portal player, but it would likely be a leftover, unless the Swarm came through with
top market offer

PMAC will start next year. CMAC will coaching in some form at Iowa in next 2-3 years. Much like KF, Fran will want to exploit the move to the front of the line, don't pay any dues path to career advancement for your progeny. This is a fringe benefit at Nepotism University.
 
None of us have inner knowledge so this is all speculation.

80% probability Ulis stays. Ulis demand on portal would be low and he'd have to take a step down in prestige. Also Ulis home is Illinois, not many places closer than Iowa. Ulis seems okay with 15 minutes per game..

I think you have underestimated Bowen's probability of transferring. Bowen will go to portal because he would have high market demand + he is from out East to begin with. + Dixon passed him on Fran's rotation + Fran is not type of coach to promise PT. IF the Swarm gave him obscene money, that could change things but I think Perkins would be the primary Swarm target.

I think the Swarm may be able to keep Perkins and he l has to be paid because some other big10 team would pay him if Iowa doesn't.

JoshO---has no alternatives, he already failed to land a spot last year in Portal. I think Fran may seek a Medical retirement scholarship for Josh, but since Fran usually has a couple free schollies anyway, it isn't necessary. JOsh and Mulvey both seem like great teammates.

Kris Murray can get paid wherever he chooses to go. I doubt Swarm has enough NIL money to keep him.

I think Fran may pick up a portal player, but it would likely be a leftover, unless the Swarm came through with
top market offer

PMAC will start next year. CMAC will coaching in some form at Iowa in next 2-3 years. Much like KF, Fran will want to exploit the move to the front of the line, don't pay any dues path to career advancement for your progeny. This is a fringe benefit at Nepotism University.
Connor has stated that he will not coach at Iowa. He has said he's learned a lot from his dad, but if he pursues coaching he wants to hear from different voices.
 
Hope he enjoys the D-Leage then, way too soft for the NBA
We shall see on all these "way too soft for the NBA" predictions I keep seeing but either way he's going to be getting paid nicely to play a game he loves. I'm sure he will enjoy himself
 
Illinois had a guy announce he was entering the transfer portal 10 minutes after his team was bounced from the dance. Players unhappy with their situations have likely been planning their exit strategies for months. So now that Iowa's season has come to an unceremonious conclusion, losing 3 in a row to some really poor teams, which players are most likely to seek opportunities elsewhere? Here they are in order of most likely to leave.

1. Ogundele (75% likelihood of transfer). Josh is the most likely to announce his transfer. He already tried once, last year, but when not a single suiter came calling, he crawled back to Iowa with his tail between his legs and promised Fran he'd work hard to get in better shape. A year later, Ogundele played in just a hand full of games (which is shocking considering he plays a position of need) and showed little to no improvement over last year. My guess is, Fran sits down with the kid, wishes him luck, and sends him off to a school like Drake that can utilize his size.

2. Bowen (33% likelihood of transfer). Came in with a good amount of hype (and confidence) as a top 20 point guard recruit. While he played quite a bit early on, he saw his minutes dramatically diminish in favor of Fran's son, who started playing more and more. With 18 year olds, ego is everything and I don't think Fran handled Bowen's playing time well at all. There was about a 10 game stretch where Bowen didn't even leave the bench (even though he finished the season 2nd on the team in shooting %), despite some wide margin wins and losses in that time. Look for Bowen to seek out a fresh start, as he's likely not happy with his treatment this year.

3. Perkins (25% likelihood of transfer). There was just something about Perkins' demeanor this year that led me to believe he's unhappy at Iowa. With his occasional flashes of brilliance, he may try to parlay that into some NIL money at a school in need of a scorer. His game reminds me a lot of Isaiah Moss, who had a 32 point game as a freshmen (but only averaged 6 points per game), declared for the NBA as a sophomore before coming back, then transferred to Kansas for his senior year.

4. Mulvey (10% likelihood of transfer). Mulvey actually agreed to give up his senior year of high school basketball to come straight to Iowa because Fran told him he'd get immediate playing time. Instead, Mulvey played about 5 minutes his entire freshmen year and a year of eligibility was burned for nothing. During the offseason, Mulvey was expected to bulk up and greatly improve his game. Unfortunately, a second year of eligibility went by and he never played a meaningful minute (he only played 50 minutes total). If Mulvey resents skipping a year of high school where he could have been the star of his team in favor of being the 12th man off Iowa's bench, or if he resents his lack of playing time his sophomore year, I think he could transfer to a Missouri Valley school and be an instant starter.
Not the point of your thread, but Illinois has lost a lot of players and coaches lately. Underwood seems to be a douche.
To the point of the thread, Ulis and Perkins would not find a better situation at a P5 school. They start, and they get minutes. I can see Mulvey leaving for a non P5 opportunity. He is 2 years away from being a productive B10 player. I'll call him a 50/50 chance. To me Bowen is the most likely to leave. He's going to be blocked for another year by Ulis and Perkins, there is a PG coming in, and he's fighting Dix for minutes, too. I like a lot about Bowen, but he is not physically ready for the B10. He'll always be slender, but he's gotta get a lot stronger, and his attitude needs to sharpen up.
 
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Connor has stated that he will not coach at Iowa. He has said he's learned a lot from his dad, but if he pursues coaching he wants to hear from different voices.
That would be a smart move but also wouldn't be surprised to see him back suckling off daddy's hind teat after a few years of that just like Brian
 
Not a player departure, and I don't see a need to start a thread on potential coaching changes, but I am leaning towards Sherman Dillard leaving this year, or next. He's 65, I believe, and from my seat at CHA it appeared like to me that Courtney Eldridge took a much bigger in game role than Dillard this season. If a move is in the works behind the scenes, it's reasonable that Fran is promoting Eldridge to Dillard's role as the top assistant.
Dillard still recruits a lot, and that's got to be tiring, and they can stash him in the athletic department like they did with Speraw and still pay him some money.
 
That would be a smart move but also wouldn't be surprised to see him back suckling off daddy's hind teat after a few years of that just like Brian
There was always rumoring that Brian was going to come back and join the staff. I take Connor at his word. I've talked to him a few times, and he's a smart guy. I'm not sure he's decided on his future, but he seems much more likely to want to chart his own path.
 
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Bowen will be back. The connection with Eldridge is very deep--he knew he was committing to Iowa before he ever took a visit. There also just wouldn't be as much P6 demand for him as a relatively unproven former 3 star PG. He'd be competing with lots of 4th and 5th year mid major PGs for those spots which are proven commodities. There's no reason he can't be the starting PG next year at Iowa either. If he just cuts down on the turnover problem, the job will be his.

I expect both Ogundele and Mulvey to be moving down to try and get playing time--there's 0 path forward for them with Freeman coming in and Fran being adamant that they are going after a starting portal big. It's not so much Creaning, as it is just plain recruiting over them and helping them find landing spots at a mid-major institution.
 
Bowen played completely out of control almost every time he was on the court. He might have think he should have played more but his mistakes, gunning and turnovers kept him on the bench, not nepotism.

Bowen played 244 minutes and had 26 assists and 25 turnovers. Connor played 966 minutes and had 117 assists and 30 turnovers. So clearly the turnover machine should have taken those minutes.
 
There was always rumoring that Brian was going to come back and join the staff. I take Connor at his word. I've talked to him a few times, and he's a smart guy. I'm not sure he's decided on his future, but he seems much more likely to want to chart his own path.

I'd like to see Connor find a spot on a really good defensive program, and maybe pick up some new ideas. Not at all opposed to his ultimate return to Iowa.

Although Iowa's defensive answer is actually pretty easy to see. Full time full court pressing and trapping. That's what feeds the fast-paced offense, and it is the one thing McC's teams have consistently done well on defense. I have never understood why he doesn't press and trap most of the game.
 
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