*****Official Cubs 2019 thread*****
- Thread starter QChawks
- Start date
The window is closed boys.
If they’re healthy, this squad can compete with anyone, but pretty much everyone is dinged up at this point. Baez, Bryant, Kimbrel, Darvish, Rizzo, Contreras... all some level of injured/playing hurt.
I was holding out hope that everyone was going to get healthy for the last 20 games but now I realize that wasn’t very likely.
Going to need to do major retooling in the off-season. The rotation outside of Hendricks is old balls. Darvish looks like he’s got something left. Lester, Hamels and Quintana have all started/will start declining. Probably adding Alzolay next season.
Need to extend Baez. Need to make a decision on Bryant. Definitely consider trading Rizzo or Contreras to replenish the farm system. Would love to keep Castellanos but he’s a Boras client. Not sure what to do with Schwarber, he’s actually putting together a good season. Maybe trade if an AL team is willing to overpay.
MUST FIND A LEADOFF MAN. Back when they let Fowler go, I was on board with the line of thinking that leadoff men were unnecessary and overrated. After 3 years of this goddamn revolving door at the top, I’ve had enough. Find someone. Can Hoerner fill this role?
If they’re healthy, this squad can compete with anyone, but pretty much everyone is dinged up at this point. Baez, Bryant, Kimbrel, Darvish, Rizzo, Contreras... all some level of injured/playing hurt.
I was holding out hope that everyone was going to get healthy for the last 20 games but now I realize that wasn’t very likely.
Going to need to do major retooling in the off-season. The rotation outside of Hendricks is old balls. Darvish looks like he’s got something left. Lester, Hamels and Quintana have all started/will start declining. Probably adding Alzolay next season.
Need to extend Baez. Need to make a decision on Bryant. Definitely consider trading Rizzo or Contreras to replenish the farm system. Would love to keep Castellanos but he’s a Boras client. Not sure what to do with Schwarber, he’s actually putting together a good season. Maybe trade if an AL team is willing to overpay.
MUST FIND A LEADOFF MAN. Back when they let Fowler go, I was on board with the line of thinking that leadoff men were unnecessary and overrated. After 3 years of this goddamn revolving door at the top, I’ve had enough. Find someone. Can Hoerner fill this role?
I was listening to Spiegel on the Score this morning as he interviewed a guy from the Atlantic. He said that the Cubs have the worst contact rate in MLB? I knew they were bad, but dead last? Three hitting coaches in three seasons doesn't seem to have helped much.
A caller this morning said that he feared the 2016 Cubs are going to become the '85 Bears. Theo needs to make smart changes unless he wants this to happen. The team has an open window for a few more seasons, but Theo simply cannot throw out the same roster next season without getting better about getting on base and more athletic.
A caller this morning said that he feared the 2016 Cubs are going to become the '85 Bears. Theo needs to make smart changes unless he wants this to happen. The team has an open window for a few more seasons, but Theo simply cannot throw out the same roster next season without getting better about getting on base and more athletic.
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So, as the mound visit was happening after the near punch out, Lester, Rizzo and Zobrist all looked depressed and I couldn't help but think about how sad it was to finally see the 2016 team as completely a thing of the past. It felt like that reality had probably hit those three as well. Following that with the three run homer seemed inevitable and fitting. It was a good run from 2015-2018.
They have until they lose control of KB, Baez, Contreras, and Rizzo's contract is up.
The Core 4 isn’t the problem — I’m worried about starting pitching next season.
One blessing is that this is not the 1985-86, 1991, 2005-6 or 2010 Cubs. The front office has all the tools they need to keep contending:
- Elite talent on the field right now (Baez, KB, Contreras)
- Tradeable assets that could bring back significant talent and/or help re-stock the system (KB, Contreras, Rizzo, Schwarber, maybe Happ & Caratini)
- Ownership willing to spend money
- Young talent on the horizon (no, not what we saw 2015-2017, but guys like Alzolay, Hoerner, Marquez, Amaya and a few others seem to be developing well)
Lester was gassed. It was obvious after the opposite field liner by Perez. Letting him pitch to any more eighties was on the manager.
Joe Maddon has managed his last season in Chicago.
He will be replaced shortly after the season is over.
Ben Zobrist, Jon Lester, Albert Almora, Kris Bryant,
and several others have played their last season for
the Cubs.
The Chicago Cubs won 1 World Series in the 21 century
and their fans should be grateful for big miracles.
He will be replaced shortly after the season is over.
Ben Zobrist, Jon Lester, Albert Almora, Kris Bryant,
and several others have played their last season for
the Cubs.
The Chicago Cubs won 1 World Series in the 21 century
and their fans should be grateful for big miracles.
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It’s his own fault he was gassed.
Greg Maddux never pitched hard enough to break a pane of glass, yet would never mentally fold like Lester did today.
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The Cubs are cutting all those guys Monday? Are you really serious.....because that's effing insane.
You attribute absolutely everything to a mental/effort failure.....as if Walter Johnson faced Babe Ruth in every at-bat, the one who lost the battle didn't care or didn't try.
You are forgetting one big thing: pitching. This team has an ancient pitching staff, without a single good big league pitcher under the age of 30. At no point has this front office given us any reason to believe that they will have any good, young starting pitchers hit the big leagues.
Additionally, you are placing a lot of faith in a farm system that no national publication ranks better than #25. There's a reason you don't hear Jason McLeod's name pop up for jobs anymore.
And finally, free agency is a tough way to get better these days. With the current CBA structure, the best way to win is developing talent and cashing in on great production while they are on their pre-web deals. A bunch of excellent young players signed extensions to avoid free agency.
Theo Epstein has never successfully retooled a contender on the fly like this. When things turned south in Boston, he bolted. He is likely to do the same here after the Cubs go 81-81 in 2020.
Um, I talked at length about tradeable assets. Do you think the Cubs couldn't get any pitching if they dealt some combo of KB, Rizzo, Contreras, Schwarber, Happ?
My overall point is that the Cubs clearly need to make some substantial changes, but are fortunately in a position to do so if they really look hard at what they have and where they're headed.
As for the farm rankings, a big reason for the low placement is overall lack of depth and overall relative distance that depth is from being ML ready. Being ranked near the bottom doesn't mean every prospect in the system is garbage.
So you trade your best hitters for pitching...what about the hitting now? I don't think Schwarber is going to bring as much as some think. He has no true position, DH is where he would need to go. Happ isn't going to bring elite talent either.
Epstein missed the window on trading Schwarber for high level pitching. I sense he thought it would be a admission that KS was a very limited ability ball player. And the Cubs will end up giving Happ away for zilch, just like they did with TLS.
As strange as it sounds after such a recent WS... this team needs nearly a complete tear down, outside of Javy, everyone should be tradeable.
Boston fired Dave Dombrowski less than 12 months after winning a World Series. They won last October, butbare poorle positioned for the future with bad contracts and a lousy farm system.
Their situation is similar to the Cubs, and I've seen Theo referred to as a younger Dombrowski. They will go all-in to get you a title, but can't sustain success like the Yankees and Braves did, or like Houston is today.
Their situation is similar to the Cubs, and I've seen Theo referred to as a younger Dombrowski. They will go all-in to get you a title, but can't sustain success like the Yankees and Braves did, or like Houston is today.
I have been having the conversation in here for over a year -- ever since Darvish's 2018 became a disaster and Chatwood had the yips -- stating that the contention window was going to close quickly because the Cubs are embarrassingly pathetic at developing starting pitchers. Buying pitching is easy when Kris Bryant, Javy Baez, and Willson Contreras are making $1M or less. It becomes impossible when you have to pay your young hitters, unless ownership doesn't care about the luxury tax.
I was told that I am too negative (true -- I was negative during 2017 and I gave up on Baez too early), and was also told that the Darvish contract was no big deal because it "won't limit them from spending on other players to improve their club" - a statement that is categorically false and was proven this winter.
Trading one of their "Core 4" now is cutting off the nose to spite the face. It will improve your pitching at the expense of your hitting. Happ and Schwarber won't net anybody who is worthwhile.
Theo's only hope is that Tom Ricketts lets him approach $240-250M in payroll, which is unlikely.
George Steinbrenner and Mike Illitch are gone, and the new luxury tax is punitive. No owner is going to allow a reckless spending front office anymore.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^This. Theo traded his greatest asset at the time, mortgaging the next 10 years, to get Chapman. 2+ years later and they're struggling for a WC spot. I know the organization was desperate to break the jinx, but the cost was ridiculous.
Meanwhile... Brian Cashman had a 1 year rebuild, courtesy of the Cubs and Cleveland.
You make some good points. They do have $60 million coming off the books of real money (Zobrist, Hamels, Morrow, Strop, Cisek, Kintzler and Duensing alone).
They also have promising/young starters ready to push the big league club - Abbot, Alzolay, Miller, Graverman and Rea. You cant have your 5th and 6th starters making 20 million and 13 million anymore. Darvish's contract is also no longer a disaster. The last couple years of Lester are gonna look ugly im afraid.
You don't trade all the hitting, but unless the Ricketts are going to go $100M over the luxury tax threshold, they have to do something. My post was never to trade all of them. Here's my take:
- KB: He's still widely regarded as a guy with pretty close to elite (if not elite) offensive skills. He'd bring a significant haul back. He also still has 2 years of team control.
- Rizzo: Very cost-effective contract for a guy who consistently produces. Injuries have started to mount, but that contract for two more years with his D and offensive skill would not be cheap out on the trade market.
- Contreras: Elite offensive catcher who could be converted into an OF, if desired, would require significant talent in return. He's made somewhat expendable due to other good catching prospects coming through the system and the year that Caratini has had.
- Schwarber isn't going to bring a star's haul by himself, but he's really come on and is having another above-average offensive year. He's very cheap relative to his established production level for the next two seasons. He becomes a hell of a sweetener with another player named above.
- Happ is cost-controlled for 3 more seasons and has shown substantial growth this year, cutting his strikeout rate by a full third. He could be bait for a leadoff man or become sweetener in another deal to get the Cubs another ML player or additional good prospects.
The big key, though is that if next year's team basically looks exactly like this year's team with a few new bullpen names, Alzolay in the 5th spot replacing Hamels and a couple new role playing bench bats, this team will continue to be inconsistent and sputter. They have the assets they need to make moves to significantly improve and I don't buy that there would be little trade interest in Bryzzo/Contreras and I think Schwarber has helped his value in the 2nd half.
The $60M is also a good argument for trading KB or Contreras. Assuming you pick Javy as the one guy you want to be absolutely certain to extend, trading KB or Contreras frees up an escalating contract. KB already makes a shade under $13M and would be likely to move up into the $15-17M territory, maybe getting close to $20M by 2021. A trade would net significant assets and push the free cash space into the $70M, which could allow them to sign Castellanos or Rendon and still have decent cash left to fill holes on the roster that remain after the trade.
As for Lester, we all knew the back end would be rough, but I'd make that signing 200 times over again in 2015. As for the pitching coming on mentioned above, don't forget Marquez, either. He was pretty dam good this season.
Agree with everything youve been saying. Interested to see is Marquez is gonna stick as a starter. Saw Keith Law saying he is more of Hader type.
Still disagree. Still have no issue with that deal....but what they couldn't do was do both the Chapman deal AND Quintana deals. The Quintana deal is really what killed them. It would be awfully nice to have Alzolay and Cease on the way up with Eloy Jimenez as the next power bat coming up the chain.
I just love his stat lines and what I've been hearing described as some pretty incredible stuff. Could be great to see him up as a starter, but if he can become a top-end bullpen arm, I'm thrilled with that, too. If he goes that route, maybe he could be a good set-up guy in the next year or two and maybe be heir apparent for Kimbrell.
