*****Official Cubs 2019 thread*****

[SoDakHawk]

Unless the Dodgers collapse, the field for this year's WS is already determined from the NL. However, upsets do occur. The 1973 NLCS comes to my mind.

I wouldn't count out the Braves.

As for the Cubs, it would be nice to sneak in but they don't have what it takes to make the WS and they have too many injuries. I'm more interested in what off-season moves they make to become a contender again/replenish the system/retool on the go.

 

[TheCainer]

I wouldn't count out the Braves.

As for the Cubs, it would be nice to sneak in but they don't have what it takes to make the WS and they have too many injuries. I'm more interested in what off-season moves they make to become a contender again/replenish the system/retool on the go.

Agreed. I would listen to all offers other than Javy I think.

 

[MuscoHawk]

I wouldn't count out the Braves.

As for the Cubs, it would be nice to sneak in but they don't have what it takes to make the WS and they have too many injuries. I'm more interested in what off-season moves they make to become a contender again/replenish the system/retool on the go.

Their only shot would be to hang on to the wild card and stay alive long enough to get everyone healthy — Javy included.

Unfortunately, chances of making the wild card, winning the game AND getting everyone healthy are like 0.01%.

 

[hawkifann]

Agreed. I would listen to all offers other than Javy I think.

Why not listen on Javy? I'd listen on anyone....but some guys are going to be REALLY expensive. Even KB....while it makes some sense to move him, I'm sure as hell not giving him away.

 

[SoDakHawk]

Their only shot would be to hang on to the wild card and stay alive long enough to get everyone healthy — Javy included.

Unfortunately, chances of making the wild card, winning the game AND getting everyone healthy are like 0.01%.

Once you are in you never know what can happen. Maybe a couple guys go on a tear and carry the offense, seen that happen before against the Cubs. But yeah, odds are against it.

 

[MuscoHawk]

Once you are in you never know what can happen. Maybe a couple guys go on a tear and carry the offense, seen that happen before against the Cubs. But yeah, odds are against it.

I totally agree. If the Cubs can get in AND get healthy, anything can happen. We’ve only seen the Core 4 all producing at a high level at the same time ONCE this season — that stretch in May/June where they went 20-7. If those guys can do that again (plus Schwarber and Castellanos) this team can beat anyone.

 

[hawkifann]

Their only shot would be to hang on to the wild card and stay alive long enough to get everyone healthy — Javy included.

Unfortunately, chances of making the wild card, winning the game AND getting everyone healthy are like 0.01%.

FanGraphs currently has the Cubs:

• 19% chance to win division
• 42% chance to earn a WC slot
• 61% chance to make the playoffs
• 38% chance to make LDS
• 17% chance to win LDS
• 8% chance to win LCS
• 3% chance to win WS

 

[SoDakHawk]

Why not listen on Javy? I'd listen on anyone....but some guys are going to be REALLY expensive. Even KB....while it makes some sense to move him, I'm sure as hell not giving him away.

You don't move him in the off-season, you move guys like that at the deadline to leverage the desperation of the buyer and increase the haul. Problem is the Cubs probably won't be in that position where they are definite sellers at the deadline. People would freak if they gave up on a season where they were in the hunt. They are in that proverbial no-man zone.

The Yankees really lucked out as when they made their deals they were hopelessly out of it, had young talent right on the horizon, and were in a position to make the Cubs and Indians pay heavy prices. Then they get Chapman right back. I still think that was collusion, but whatever, it got us a WS Title. Imagine that, the Yankees lucking out.

 

[MuscoHawk]

FanGraphs currently has the Cubs:

• 19% chance to win division
• 42% chance to earn a WC slot
• 61% chance to make the playoffs
• 38% chance to make LDS
• 17% chance to win LDS
• 8% chance to win LCS
• 3% chance to win WS

Wow, those numbers are actually much higher than I expected!

 

[hawkifann]

Wow, those numbers are actually much higher than I expected!

Me too, but only to a point. I think STL is clearly in the driver's seat for the division, but they do have a tough schedule coming up and they will have to "prove it" with 7 of the last 10 games against the Cubs, so there's opportunity there for the Cards to fall down.

I do think the Cubs are still likely to win the WC. Losing Yelich is a crusher for the Crew and while AZ has hung tough, I'm not sure they're going to have enough. Phillies and Mets haven't capitalized on chances. They still could, but seems less likely.

So those are the ways in which the Cubs get in. If they make it, then they're in. While it would likely be a 1-game playoff in DC facing Scherzer or Strasburg, it's still a one-shot deal. If the Cub starter comes in hot or the Cubs strike with some quick runs early or the Nats pen melts down late (as they're wont to do).....there's no way the Nats statistically enter the game as any more than a 60-40 likely winner.

As they say, once you're in, anything can happen. You can get hot, the other team could go cold or have a key injury. Some key starter could blow a start, etc. etc. etc.

 

[SoDakHawk]

I do think the Cubs are still likely to win the WC. Losing Yelich is a crusher for the Crew and while AZ has hung tough, I'm not sure they're going to have enough. Phillies and Mets haven't capitalized on chances. They still could, but seems less likely.

Truth is every club fighting for WC positions are flawed. Get hot at the right time and find yourself in, slump at the wrong time and find yourself out. All of these teams take 2 steps forward then 2 steps back, that's why they are in the position they are in.

 

[CuttyDoesIt]

This team is garbage

 

[hawkifann]

Truth is every club fighting for WC positions are flawed. Get hot at the right time and find yourself in, slump at the wrong time and find yourself out. All of these teams take 2 steps forward then 2 steps back, that's why they are in the position they are in.

Definitely true. Prior to Yelich getting hurt, I was more a lean to the idea that Milwaukee would catch the Cubs again and that the Nats wouldn't fall far enough. That's certainly still possible, but the road gets much tougher for Milwaukee without their MVP. Philly/Arizona/NYM are still in play, but the Cubs sit 2/2.5/3 games ahead of them, so there's some cushion.

I'm not betting the farm on the Cubs earning a WC slot, but I do still think it's more likely than not. Milwaukee does have a pretty soft schedule the rest of the way, so that will be something to watch. The Nats have a brutal schedule down the stretch - MIN/ATL/STL/(MIA)/5 against PHI and CLE.

Milwaukee may jump in, but the Nats may fall out.

 

[dgordo]

The Dodgers look unbeatable in the NL but this is 7 years in a row without winning the WS, they need to prove it.

All we know for sure is the cubs are done.

 

[MitchLL]

Unless the Dodgers collapse, the field for this year's WS is already determined from the NL. However, upsets do occur. The 1973 NLCS comes to my mind.

Braves are only 3 games behind for home field. But yeah, LAD has been the

You don't move him in the off-season, you move guys like that at the deadline to leverage the desperation of the buyer and increase the haul. Problem is the Cubs probably won't be in that position where they are definite sellers at the deadline. People would freak if they gave up on a season where they were in the hunt. They are in that proverbial no-man zone.

The Yankees really lucked out as when they made their deals they were hopelessly out of it, had young talent right on the horizon, and were in a position to make the Cubs and Indians pay heavy prices. Then they get Chapman right back. I still think that was collusion, but whatever, it got us a WS Title. Imagine that, the Yankees lucking out.

Cashman made the Yankees a one year rebuild. That's pure genius.

He raped the Cubs and most of their fans are happy about it. Imagine Javy and Gleyber anchoring your team for the next decade?

Einstein will be like Dombrowski in a year.

 

[hawkfan0319]

Braves are only 3 games behind for home field. But yeah, LAD has been the

Cashman made the Yankees a one year rebuild. That's pure genius.

He raped the Cubs and most of their fans are happy about it. Imagine Javy and Gleyber anchoring your team for the next decade?

Einstein will be like Dombrowski in a year.

Imagine a world where Yankee fans didn't act like effin Husker fans. Ahh what a glorious world that would be.

Epstein may very well be gone soon, but he still did bring the Cubs a championship.

 

[dgordo]

Epstein may very well be gone soon, but he still did bring the Cubs a championship.

People forget that because it was easy and anyone could have done it.

 

[33hawkfan]

But hey the Yankees will get an inflated regular season record from playing in a bottom heavy AL and another post season loss to Houston. That's about the ceiling for that franchise any more.

 

[jamesvanderwulf]

FanGraphs currently has the Cubs:

• 19% chance to win division
• 42% chance to earn a WC slot
• 61% chance to make the playoffs
• 38% chance to make LDS
• 17% chance to win LDS
• 8% chance to win LCS
• 3% chance to win WS

 

[hawkifann]

People forget that because it was easy and anyone could have done it.

Exactly. A lot of things have to go right to win a ring. Theo has made some big mistakes and a couple of those mistakes certainly appear to be helping close the window earlier than it needed to. Those have all been hashed and re-hashed here - not developing cost-controlled pitching, overpaying on some FA contracts that haven't worked out, trading too many pieces from the farm for staff upgrades that didn't really pan out.

Theo also made some really good moves. Early on, he was able to identify some pretty cost-effective pitchers that made good short-term additions or trade bait. He made some very good trades. He also had some luck - not every elite offensive prospect pans out, but for about 2.5 years, the Cubs seemed to strike gold with every single one. The Cubs really shouldn't have had Dexter Fowler in 2016, but the Orioles crapped the bed and Des fell back into the Cubs' lap.

At this point, though, the Cubs are where they are and there will definitely be things that need to be addressed this offseason.

 

[hawkifann]

Of course there's a chance. I'm sure you remember the 85-win Cardinals that took home the trophy.

 

[St. Louis Hawk]

I think the good Lord grants us payback for the dumpster fire double tie ending last year and we get some payback.

A boy can dream.

 

[dgordo]

I think the good Lord grants us payback for the dumpster fire double tie ending last year and we get some payback.

A boy can dream.

 

[SoDakHawk]

He raped the Cubs and most of their fans are happy about it. Imagine Javy and Gleyber anchoring your team for the next decade?

At the time of the trade Addison Russell was thought to be the better player and have a higher upside than Javy Baez. Gleyber was essentially blocked as the Cubs had their middle infield of the future. Flipping him for a piece that completes the puzzle for a WS title was considered the smart thing to do.

Hindsight is 20/20. You could not predict what would happen with Russell or any of the other young Cubs that actually delivered on a WS title. For all the Cubs knew Gleybor could have become the next Corey Patterson or Felix Pie, or Josh Vitters, or, the list is too numerous to count.

 

[St. Louis Hawk]

Keep the faith.

 

[CuttyDoesIt]

Jason Mcleod reassigned to VP or Player Personnel

 

[St. Louis Hawk]

At the time of the trade Addison Russell was thought to be the better player and have a higher upside than Javy Baez. Gleyber was essentially blocked as the Cubs had their middle infield of the future. Flipping him for a piece that completes the puzzle for a WS title was considered the smart thing to do.

Hindsight is 20/20. You could not predict what would happen with Russell or any of the other young Cubs that actually delivered on a WS title. For all the Cubs knew Gleybor could have become the next Corey Patterson or Felix Pie, or Josh Vitters, or, the list is too numerous to count.

Yep. I’d do this trade again today even if I knew the outcome. We won a WS and rode Chapman like an OP’s Mom.

WS are damn hard to win even with a great team. See Dodgers, Los Angeles.

 

[dgordo]

Keep the faith.

Like most long time fans i have lived most of my life having no faith in the cubs. For a few minutes in 2015 i believed, that was weird.

 

[dgordo]

Jason Mcleod reassigned to VP or Player Personnel

 

[dgordo]

I know people are upset with the Quintana trade but Quintana has been worth almost 6 WAR for the cubs while eloy and cease have combined for a negative WAR. It certainly seems like the white sox will be the long term winners but to this point its been all cubs.

 

[CuttyDoesIt]

I know people are upset with the Quintana trade but Quintana has been worth almost 6 WAR for the cubs while eloy and cease have combined for a negative WAR. It certainly seems like the white sox will be the long term winners but to this point its been all cubs.

Quintana has been solid for the cubs no doubt. My complaint with the trade is that the Cubs could have gotten a top of the rotation starter for Eloy and Cease.

 

[jamesvanderwulf]

Of course there's a chance. I'm sure you remember the 85-win Cardinals that took home the trophy.

No, but I remember the 83 win team that won the '06 WS. . Here's where having 2 lockdown starters can skew the long regular season. Of course Cards started well in '06 but Edmunds, Eckstein, Molina, Isringhausen and Mark Mulder all went down midseason, the latter 2 for the end of the season. Wainwright came up as a rookie and became the closer than we were missing. Issy blew 10 saves before he let on how bad his hip injury was. We got the position players back while Rolen and Pujols continued to carry the load. Chris Carpenter, Suppan and Wainwright were the difference.

 

[CuttyDoesIt]

No, but I remember the 83 win team that won the '06 WS. . Here's where having 2 lockdown starters can skew the long regular season. Of course Cards started well in '06 but Edmunds, Eckstein, Molina, Isringhausen and Mark Mulder all went down midseason, the latter 2 for the end of the season. Wainwright came up as a rookie and became the closer than we were missing. Issy blew 10 saves before he let on how bad his hip injury was. We got the position players back while Rolen and Pujols continued to carry the load. Chris Carpenter, Suppan and Wainwright were the difference.

Those were some damn good teams

 

[St. Louis Hawk]

Like most long time fans i have lived most of my life having no faith in the cubs. For a few minutes in 2015 i believed, that was weird.

I get it brother. Just keep making the playoffs and stuff happens.

 

[SoDakHawk]

Quintana has been solid for the cubs no doubt. My complaint with the trade is that the Cubs could have gotten a top of the rotation starter for Eloy and Cease.

Quintana logs a lot of innings over the course of a season, something you need out of a starter. Going all the way back to his White Sox days he will give you 30 starts and 200 innings per year of consistently average 3-4 starter numbers. He's not top of the line, never was meant to be top of the line, but was a cost controlled, innings eating starter. Just view him for what he is and not what you think he should be.

 

[lucas80]

Jason McLeod seems to be getting a promotion. Hmmm.
He's been named Senior VP of Player Personnel. That seems like a big league guy, or GM in waiting?
It means the Cubs will now have a new voice at the top when it comes to scouting and player development. McLeod has had some hits, but a lot of misses. Every chief does, but he has been overweighted with high end draft pick and IFA signings. Not enough 2nd to 10th round successes. Not enough lower round successes where you identify a guy with that one skill you can develop and exploit.

 

[dgordo]

Jason McLeod seems to be getting a promotion. Hmmm.
He's been named Senior VP of Player Personnel. That seems like a big league guy, or GM in waiting?
It means the Cubs will now have a new voice at the top when it comes to scouting and player development. McLeod has had some hits, but a lot of misses. Every chief does, but he has been overweighted with high end draft pick and IFA signings. Not enough 2nd to 10th round successes. Not enough lower round successes where you identify a guy with that one skill you can develop and exploit.

he had a ton of success as a scout with the red sox but the game has changed and he didnt.

 

[HawkeyesAndCubs1023]

he had a ton of success as a scout with the red sox but the game has changed and he didnt.

Jason McLeod getting promoted likely means one of the following:

1. Theo doesn't think there is a talent problem, and that his crew is still the smartest in the game.

2. Theo knows McLeod is bad at his job, but would rather be surrounded by "yes men." I'm still not sure what Jed Homer actually does either.

3. Theo does not care anymore.

This is the equivalent of a college football program promoting a Recruiting Coordinator to Defensive Coordinator after several terrible recruiting classes.

I thought it was a joke when I saw it on Twitter.

 

[CuttyDoesIt]

Quintana logs a lot of innings over the course of a season, something you need out of a starter. Going all the way back to his White Sox days he will give you 30 starts and 200 innings per year of consistently average 3-4 starter numbers. He's not top of the line, never was meant to be top of the line, but was a cost controlled, innings eating starter. Just view him for what he is and not what you think he should be.

Sorry but you dont trade a top 10 and a top 100 prospect to get a solid 3/4. Thats where the criticism comes from.

 

[lucas80]

Jason McLeod getting promoted likely means one of the following:

1. Theo doesn't think there is a talent problem, and that his crew is still the smartest in the game.

2. Theo knows McLeod is bad at his job, but would rather be surrounded by "yes men." I'm still not sure what Jed Homer actually does either.

3. Theo does not care anymore.

This is the equivalent of a college football program promoting a Recruiting Coordinator to Defensive Coordinator after several terrible recruiting classes.

I thought it was a joke when I saw it on Twitter.

Well, I would add that the Cubs have a ton of money, and you don't just throw out a guy who helped to bring the first WS title to the North Side in 100+ years. It's Crazy Joe's money, so if Tom and the other kids are okay with Theo stashing a guy in a VP role, I'm okay with that, too.