*****Official Cubs 2019 thread*****
- Thread starter QChawks
- Start date
Dexter was a very average lead off hitter, just goes to show that even a very average lead off hitter makes a huge difference.
Remember when the Cubs had a manager who was known for keeping guys engaged and finding unconventional ways to have fun and break up the long season and the front office completely neutered him to try to make him conform to the type of manager they wanted?
It is on him thinking Almora should be playing CF. He needed to find someone to replace DF when he left for StL. The lineup has been a hack job ever since.
So much this. So many times on here I see fans griping about relievers giving up runs late in games...and I get that it sucks to blow a 2-0 lead to lose 3-2 and that kind of thing, but you're right, the offense often gives little margin for error. I was annoyed at Hamels giving up the HR last night and it would have been nice if he could have gone 6, but the Cubs got 3 hits. THREE hits.
Worse than the low-scoring losses, the Cubs have lost 17 games this season when they've scored at least 5 runs. If you're feast-or-famine, you better win when you're feasting. Looking at this series, I can tip my cap to Paddack for pitching well, but the Cubs needed that game Tuesday night when they scored 8.
This is easily the most seesaw team Maddon has had in Chicago. Looking back at the schedule, here are the big swings I've seen: Lose 6 straight, win 9/11, win 13/15, lose 8/10, win 6/7, win 9/11, lose 7/10, win 6/7, lose 6/7, win 5, lose 3, win 7/9, lose 5/6. That's crazy. And it's been getting worse. Earlier in the season, they'd have some of those streaks and intermingle some randomness....but here's literally the Cubs last 58 games:
- July 4-20: Win 9 of 11, scoring 5.8 and giving up 3.3 per
- July 21-Aug 1: Lose 7 of 10, scoring 3.2 and giving up 3.8 per
- Aug 2-8: Win 6 of 7, scoring 7 and giving up 3.9 per
- Aug 9-16: Lose 6 of 7, scoring 2.7 and giving up 6.1 per
- Aug 17-22: Win 5 straight, scoring 5.4 and giving up 2.8 per
- Aug 23-25: Lose 3 straight, scoring 3.3 and giving up 7.7 per
- Aug 27-Sep 5: Win 7 of 9, scoring 5.2 and giving up 2.7 per
- Sep 6-11: Lose 5 of 6, scoring 4.3 and giving up 5.5
This data is actually a bit of an indictment of Maddon, IMHO. In 2015-2017, the Cubs kept a pretty even keel to avoid having many big negative swings and were generally much better in the 2nd half than in the first. Last year started to change that and this year is turning into the reverse on crack. Baseball is a streaky game, but this is a little absurd.
That said, the Cubs are obviously a team that's hard to predict. They could stumble a few more games or go rip of 6 wins in the next 7.....and if they make the playoffs, they could get swept out quick in any series or get hot and pull an upset.
Worse: if the season ended yesterday (when these were posted), the Cubs would be playing a road game in Milwaukee today, to decide who gets the 2nd Wildcard Spot, to then travel to DC to play the Nats.
The Cubs front office will be looking at trades and free agents, etc in the off season? No f'ing way!
Theo's tweets are directed at an audience of one... the Ricketts. He knows his own job is teetering on the brink.
Note to Einstein... No one gives two shits about the run differential between the Brewers and Cubs. It's like the stat crazy posters on this thread. It's about winning and losing and having a lame duck manager that already achieved his life goal. Maddon doesn't need a job, he's riding into the sunset in a month.
Note to Einstein... No one gives two shits about the run differential between the Brewers and Cubs. It's like the stat crazy posters on this thread. It's about winning and losing and having a lame duck manager that already achieved his life goal. Maddon doesn't need a job, he's riding into the sunset in a month.
Whichever team gets hot, Cubs or Cards, will probably make the playoffs; other one may end up sitting at home.
Someone's going to lose 4 or 5 games in the 7 head-head games they have left, and their only hope is that the Brewers, Phillies or Mets play worse during that stretch.
If the Cubs can go 5-2 vs. the Cards, they'd have a shot at the NL Central.
Dbacks and Brewers play the easiest schedules from here on out; everyone else has multiple games against Division leaders or teams vying for the WC spots (Cards have the Brewers, Nats and Cubs in their last 5 series finishing out the season; that's pretty brutal this time of year).
Good thing they won't have to worry about buying any rings for all those guys!
Don't care. I'm old school.
BTW: Following Boone, now?
One thing you and your great grandpa now have in common... you both witnessed 1 WS title in your lifetime.
BTW: I predicted in July the Cubs would win 85 games. Might have been a little too generous.
Any ragrets letting Soler go? 43 Hrs and 106 RBIs so far. Salary under 5M. Paid Wade Davis 10M for his one year and got nothing when he left as a FA...or did they?
Don't care. I'm old school.
BTW: Following Boone, now?
One thing you and your great grandpa now have in common... you both witnessed 1 WS title in your lifetime.
My kid is a Yankees fan ... I failed as a parent.
Aaron Boone is analytics and your team has embraced it. Learn to love it.
Old school? I will show you old school ...
I think how they've handled the closer spot since the end of 2016 has been a huge problem for the front office. I would have went hard after resigning Chapman or going after Jansen that offseason. The Cubs had money to spend at that time. Instead they gave up Soler for a year of Davis, who was very good. Then signed a huge injury risk in Morrow who pitched half a year, went into this season thinking for some unknown reason that Morrow would be back at some point and no other closer, then finally paid for Kimbrel midway through the year, and shockingly a guy who didn't have a spring training has been inconsistent and injured since they got him.
I don't remember if they got a pick or not for Davis (probably not), but Soler was only good/healthy enough to play a total of 96 MLB games across the past two seasons and we'll see if he's able to stay healthy for more than one full season. He was never able to keep his legs healthy in Chicago. He's getting a ton of time at DH, which has probably greatly helped keep his bat in the lineup.
I'd make that trade 100 more times. He could always hit and hit for power, but he couldn't stay in the lineup due to injuries. The Cubs can't use him as a DH except in a handful of games every year, so his value was significantly less. In return, the Cubs got a reliable closer and used him to win a division title and make a 3rd straight trip to the NLCS.
trading for chapman and davis were absolutely the right moves, signing morrow was not.
The Cubs were planning on going with a Schwarber/Heyward/Soler OF in 2016 before resigning Fowler. I would have liked to see how that would have played out. Defensively would have been somewhat sketchy, but that would have minimized the negative impact of Heyward's bat, but the Cubs had to get Almora and his negative bat and defense in there in CF instead.
And signing Kimbrel ... TBD.
He's had exactly the season everyone should have expected. No spring training for pitchers generally does lead to a slow start, inconsistency and periodic injuries. He has had stretches where he looked really good, however. Hopefully he gets right and is reliable the rest of his contract.
Again, though, Soler doesn't address any current Cubs weaknesses. Sure, I'll always take 43 HRs, but lack of power isn't the Cubs' problem. The problem the last three years has been the lack of an effective (even averagely effective) leadoff man and a decreasingly versatile roster. Keeping Soler addresses neither, which is why he was available as trade bait.
We're also making a big leap to assume that a Soler who plays 35 MLB games in 2017 and 65 games in 2018 would have even still been on the 2019 roster to potentially hit 43 HRs. I'm happy to see him having success in KC, but I just don't see any any of the last 3 seasons would have been made better by having Soler.
I think there was a reason Boston didn't want to resign him. Just my opinion.
I was meh about it overall (you can go back in this thread and look). It was absolutely a no-brainer because Kimbrell was the best available arm at a time when the bullpen was struggling that wasn't going to require trading prospects....but he was always in line for an inconsistent, injury-riddled season. We'll see how the rest of the deal plays out.
And while the offense can't be consistent, the bullpen has blown 26 of 62 save opportunities. They are 19th in MLB in save %. I would love to see how many of those blown saves are when the offense scores 5 or more versus 4 or less. For comparison, StL has only blown 13 of 58 and league MLB. A 13 game difference right there.
And, Soler is tied for the AL lead in strikeouts. The Cubs need more balls in play, not less.
There was a reason everyone didn't chase him. It was his contract demand. 2019 Kimbrell is not 2015 Kimbrell, but he's still a legit major league reliever....he's just not worth the money he was chasing. From the reporting I saw, the Cubs got him substantially cheaper than what he would have cost them in the off-season. Boston might have brought him back in January for the deal the Cubs gave him if that had ever been something Kimbrell would have considered at the time.
When Zobrist has played, he has led off....unfortunately, he fouled a ball of his knee Tuesday.
That's where the lack of consistency comes in. Like they always say, right off the bat, basically every team is going to win around 60 and every team is going to lose around 60 (unless you're historically great or awful). It's those other 42 that tell the tale. The Cubs have largely played with a razor-thin margin and that leaves little room for error. It means a starter often can't give up 2 runs in 6 innings....or it means the bullpen has to be perfect because the offense doesn't score after putting up 4 runs in the first 5 innings. It's all those little things...bullpen is certainly a component. I do have a hard time, for the most part, blaming starting pitching. I think that rotation has been the best aspect of this team basically all season. There have been brief stretches where they've been bad, but every team has that.
Yeah...No! Braves seemed to have done just fine with acquiring Dallas Keuchel under the exact same circumstances. Same age, too.
Listen, I understand the excuses and the frustration. I think too many Cub fans are vastly overestimating the talent on the current team. If you want moral victories... this club still might make the WC game. But that's it.
See. Out of touch. I never seem to catch the beginning of a game anymore. Last night as I was watching I was wondering if Castellanos was playing. I kept getting pulled away from the TV and every time I got back to it Schwarber was up. I was like, is this guy going to bat 15 times tonight?
Kimbrel was struggling at the end of last year, which made the contract demands a little strange. I was against the signing for the reasons you mentioned (no spring training, conditioning, etc.) as well as a pitcher beginning to lose his skill/command. Oh well. We will see if it works out in the long run.
Keuchel has stayed healthy, but he was inconsistent over his first couple of months. He started poorly, got better, regressed again and has been on a nice run since -- you know, the kind of thing you work out in spring training.....but inconsistency and injuries are things you tend to see from athletes across all sports that miss pre-season work. This isn't a new thing. Not every guy goes through it, but many do.
Either that or Kimbrell just sucks/is injury-prone now, which is possible and we'll find out in the next couple years.
