A few thoughts:
1. I find myself caring less and less each of the last couple of seasons, which is a good thing. Not sure if it is 2016, growing family responsibilities, the decline of the franchise, or a combination but I can barely watch more than an inning at a time.
2. Darvish might give Heyward a run for his money in the bad contract department. Through two starts, he has gone 6 2/3 innings and leads MLB in walks.
3. I have been wrong often in these threads, namely wanting to trade Javy because I didn't think his plate discipline could lead to anything better than league average at the plate. He is an absolute anomaly and I am thrilled to be wrong.
4. I repeatedly said last year that Theo's bad contracts and lack of pitching development would shorten the competitive window. Some of the responses here indicated that these contracts weren't that's bad "because it's just money" and that it wouldn't limit what the Cubs could do in the future. We are seeing my doomsday prediction come to fruition. Theo/Hoyer/McLeod could have done better drafting/signing amateur pitchers if they did no scouting and simply went by rankings on public lists.
We saw that Theo was unable to make substantial changes to the team in the offseason, and it is his own fault. He seemingly has to sleep in the bed that he and hi son buddies made.
5. People who blame the Ricketts have a difficult time with math. The Cubs have the 2nd highest payroll in MLB at $209M. The NL Central has the Cardinals at $163M and the Brewers at $124M. I have seen people on Twitter state that if the Cubs don't contend this year, it's because Ricketts didn't provide the resources.
"What those people are saying is 'The Cubs spend $46M more than St. Louis and $85M more than Milwaukee, but poor Theo wasn't given enough money to compete."
1. You're out of your mind on the idea of "decline of the franchise". The Cubs are arguably coming off the best 4-year stretch in franchise history. Will this year be a down year? Maybe, but I'm not ready to burn everything to the ground after a week.
2. Maybe so, but he basically took last year off. He's either done or, as we've seen with others in the past, it takes time to work back into routines and game-level command. See point 1 about not being ready to burn it all to the ground after a week.
3. Nobody is right on all players all the time. Nobody is wrong on all players all the time. This goes for Joe Fan and Joe Maddon and Theo Epstein.
4. I'm not sure we're looking at a "doomsday" scenario. The Cubs are still in position to have an extended window to contend. There's still a lot of talent on this team.....and bullpens can be built and go to crap very quickly, as we saw last year after a relatively weak 2017 pen and this year after a relatively strong 2018 pen. The Cubs will have more flexibility next offseason, whether the Ricketts allow for more spending or not.
5. Agreed that the Cubs are spending enough to win. Also agreed that some moves haven't worked out the way anyone hoped. Hayward and Darvish have been bad contracts. The lack of pitching development did mean that the Cubs felt compelled to spend $20M on Cole Hamels and make the Quintana trade in 2017. Those moves haven't been outstanding. The Cubs will have more flexibility next year and even more the year after.
Next year, Hamels ($20M), Zobrist ($12M), Cishek ($6.5M), Strop ($6.25M) and Kintzler ($5M) come off the books. That's just a shade under $50M. There are also club options on Rizzo ($14.5M), Morrow ($12M), Quintana ($10.5M), Brach ($5M), Barnette ($3M) and Graveman ($3M). I'm sure they'll pick up Rizzo's option, but there's a fair chance they let Morrow and Brach walk, maybe even Quintana. All totaled, that's $65-75M to spend without increasing payroll. The next year, Lester, Chatwood and the guys with club options in 2020 are gone (except Rizzo, who would have one more club option). That's close to another $40-60M depending on who they keep into 2020.
The Cubs may have a lull if this year is a dud, but they still have a lot of young bats (plus some guys on the farm like Hoerner) plus a lot of money to spend. There's no reason to assume that the Cubs are in an endless downward spiral. Heck, if this year really does go south, they may well be able to make some deals at the deadline to sell off some parts and get an injection of prospects and/or international cash.
