*****Official Cubs 2019 thread*****

[hawkifann]

Still owed around 120 million. How depressing

That's obviously the big challenge with him. If you could separate player from contract, a lot of teams might have an interest in Heyward. He was a 2-win player this year per FanGraphs WAR. I think he's capable of several more seasons like he had this year....using the FanGraphs current estimate of 1 WAR being worth roughly $8 million, he'd be "market priced" if he had about $40 million left on his deal. At that price, A) he wouldn't be a boat anchor on Cub payroll and B) he'd be interesting to a lot of teams.

 

[LuteHawk]

Theo has made some bad signings: Heyward,
Darvish, Chatwood, Morrow. He needs to get
serious about a pitching staff that goes into
October.

 

[HawkeyesAndCubs1023]

When discussing the Cubs, I've always taken "window" to mean the period of time with the current core. The "window" for Rizzo, Bryant, Lester, Baez, Russell, Contreras etc, is about two more years. That's not necessarily to imply that they'll go back to winning 60 games and try again, but rather guys like Lester and Zo will have moved on and the Cubs will have to make choices with the younger guys and pick the 1-2 they want to build around and then work some deals to move others and probably have someone leave for free agency.

I think that in addition to FA signings, the next 2-3 offseasons are going to include more trades than we've seen lately. There are guys who have value and guys like Heyward pick up more value as the clock ticks and the contract becomes something more moveable.

I agree with South Dakota in that the Cubs should have a competitive team every single year, and there should be no such thing as a window. The miracle is not that the Cubs broke some "curse" in 2016, but that horrific ownership allowed for the prominent team in the #3 market with a massive national fan base to be so bad.

If Theo brings one more championship but leaves the Cubs looking like the current San Francisco Giants in 2022-2023, I would only give him a B for his Chicago tenure.

Theo has given 3 big contracts (I define "big" as $100M+), one of them was good (Lester), one of them is very bad (Heyward), and the other has a less than 5% chance of being decent (Darvish). Don't forget the deal he gave Carl Crawford in Boston.

Theo is phenomenal at establishing culture, evaluating hitting talent, and making trades (his trades have been mostly awesome. Theo is mostly bad at free agent deals, and is impossibly terrible at developing pitching.

 

[hawkifann]

I agree with South Dakota in that the Cubs should have a competitive team every single year, and there should be no such thing as a window. The miracle is not that the Cubs broke some "curse" in 2016, but that horrific ownership allowed for the prominent team in the #3 market with a massive national fan base to be so bad.

If Theo brings one more championship but leaves the Cubs looking like the current San Francisco Giants in 2022-2023, I would only give him a B for his Chicago tenure.

Theo has given 3 big contracts (I define "big" as $100M+), one of them was good (Lester), one of them is very bad (Heyward), and the other has a less than 5% chance of being decent (Darvish). Don't forget the deal he gave Carl Crawford in Boston.

Theo is phenomenal at establishing culture, evaluating hitting talent, and making trades (his trades have been mostly awesome. Theo is mostly bad at free agent deals, and is impossibly terrible at developing pitching.

Can't disagree with much although I'll continue to quibble over the use of the word "window". Every competitive team has a "window" with their current talent. The Nationals have had a 4-year or so window with the core they've had and that's mostly over now with Harper likely leaving, Murphy gone and several other guys traded.....that doesn't mean they're going to roll into 2019 as a terrible team, it just means they need to establish their new core and add the pieces.

I'd say the "core" of the Cubs current window has been Rizzo, Lester, Arrieta, Bryant, Hendricks and the cast of young players all having some stand-out moments. Jake is gone, but everyone else is largely around.....that won't be the case by 2021, hence the "window". Unless Theo/Jed really take the approach that they're out in a couple years so maximize everything to win now at the expense of continuity, I fully expect that over the next two seasons the Cubs will try to make some moves to set up a new core and establish another window that will extend another 3-5 years. That will mean working on extensions with KB and Baez (most likely) trying to lock them in long-term and then likely some trades in an attempt to clear some money for a really good free agent class.

I definitely want to see more trading. I agree that on the whole, Theo has been an outstanding trader.

 

[Iowahawkeyes1993]

If we don’t sign Harper or machado I’d look at signing aj pollock or markakis and trying to just dump Hayward to someone and pay half or something

 

[lucas80]

I agree with South Dakota in that the Cubs should have a competitive team every single year, and there should be no such thing as a window. The miracle is not that the Cubs broke some "curse" in 2016, but that horrific ownership allowed for the prominent team in the #3 market with a massive national fan base to be so bad.

If Theo brings one more championship but leaves the Cubs looking like the current San Francisco Giants in 2022-2023, I would only give him a B for his Chicago tenure.

Theo has given 3 big contracts (I define "big" as $100M+), one of them was good (Lester), one of them is very bad (Heyward), and the other has a less than 5% chance of being decent (Darvish). Don't forget the deal he gave Carl Crawford in Boston.

Theo is phenomenal at establishing culture, evaluating hitting talent, and making trades (his trades have been mostly awesome. Theo is mostly bad at free agent deals, and is impossibly terrible at developing pitching.

The Tribune at the end of their ownership, and Sam Zell weren't about winning.

 

[dgordo]

 

[comet_y2k]

If we don’t sign Harper or machado I’d look at signing aj pollock or markakis and trying to just dump Hayward to someone and pay half or something

AJ Pollock? yeesh, set the bar low.

 

[lucas80]

Interesting morning of Cubs talk on the Score. Bernstine says he has a source that says the Cubs may bring back DJLeM to play 2nd. He's a grindy type hitter that Theo loves. Too bad he gave him away for a sack of garbage named Ian Scott.
There is some intrigue around Cole Hammels. Could the Cubs have a nod and wink deal in place with Hammels, and allow the Rangers to buy him out for them? Could the teams speak and work out something beneficial to each of them?

 

[BioHawk]

Interesting morning of Cubs talk on the Score. Bernstine says he has a source that says the Cubs may bring back DJLeM to play 2nd. He's a grindy type hitter that Theo loves. Too bad he gave him away for a sack of garbage named Ian Scott.
There is some intrigue around Cole Hammels. Could the Cubs have a nod and wink deal in place with Hammels, and allow the Rangers to buy him out for them? Could the teams speak and work out something beneficial to each of them?

Aren't rules in place to prevent "nod and wink" deals in baseball?

 

[HawkRugged17]

Interesting morning of Cubs talk on the Score. Bernstine says he has a source that says the Cubs may bring back DJLeM to play 2nd. He's a grindy type hitter that Theo loves. Too bad he gave him away for a sack of garbage named Ian Scott.
There is some intrigue around Cole Hammels. Could the Cubs have a nod and wink deal in place with Hammels, and allow the Rangers to buy him out for them? Could the teams speak and work out something beneficial to each of them?

Please keep your sacks of garbage straight ... it was Ian Stewart.

 

[hawkifann]

Aren't rules in place to prevent "nod and wink" deals in baseball?

To a point, but there are plays here. The Cubs are welcome to not pick up his option, at which point the Rangers pay and Hamels is a free agent. Hard stop. From there, there's nothing stopping Hamels and the Cubs for agreeing on a price less than $20M as far as I'm aware.....but obviously while negotiating, the rest of baseball would be free to work with Hamels and his agent.

The union would likely file a grievance if it was overtly coordinated to where this all happened in one shot (and they'd be right and would win), but if it was done in an orderly manner where the Cubs decline the offer, the Rangers pay and Hamels hits FA and other teams have the opportunity to bid, then I don't see the problem. Cubs would be rolling the dice, but it would seem legit.

 

[SoDakHawk]

To a point, but there are plays here. The Cubs are welcome to not pick up his option, at which point the Rangers pay and Hamels is a free agent. Hard stop. From there, there's nothing stopping Hamels and the Cubs for agreeing on a price less than $20M as far as I'm aware.....but obviously while negotiating, the rest of baseball would be free to work with Hamels and his agent.

The union would likely file a grievance if it was overtly coordinated to where this all happened in one shot (and they'd be right and would win), but if it was done in an orderly manner where the Cubs decline the offer, the Rangers pay and Hamels hits FA and other teams have the opportunity to bid, then I don't see the problem. Cubs would be rolling the dice, but it would seem legit.

Also, if you do something like that to the Rangers, who have been a pretty good trade partner with the Cubs, you risk alienating them in future trade deals.

I predict the Cubs pick up the option and then Hamels and the Cubs immediately renegotiate it into a two year deal with an option after year one.

 

[hawkifann]

Also, if you do something like that to the Rangers, who have been a pretty good trade partner with the Cubs, you risk alienating them in future trade deals.

I predict the Cubs pick up the option and then Hamels and the Cubs immediately renegotiate it into a two year deal with an option after year one.

That's a good point, too, although the Rangers piece would really come down to the timing and optics. If it looks shady, they'd balk, but if he hits the FA market and really doesn't get a lot of interest and then the Cubs swoop in late, then I don't think the Rangers would have much to say......but a quick re-negotiation to bring the $/yr down for tax purposes would make sense.

 

[SoDakHawk]

Good news is we won't have to wait long to find out. Teams only have a couple of days after the end of the season to pick up options.

 

[lucas80]

Also, if you do something like that to the Rangers, who have been a pretty good trade partner with the Cubs, you risk alienating them in future trade deals.

I predict the Cubs pick up the option and then Hamels and the Cubs immediately renegotiate it into a two year deal with an option after year one.

I kind of mentioned this. During the discussion they mentioned the Cubs and Rangers have worked well together in the past. It's possible the Cubs could slide a mid range prospect and some cash to the Rangers in order to get them to be helpful in working something out.
I do not think the Cubs would go full doucher. Theo doesn't do that.

 

[Iowahawkeyes1993]

I want Harper or machado fine with either one

 

[ClarindaA's]

Trade Happ, Contreras, and Schwarber for Merrifield and Salvador Perez. He's expensive, but ...i'm done with Willson. Then get either Machado or Harper and bludgeon the NL

 

[HawkeyesAndCubs1023]

Trade Happ, Contreras, and Schwarber for Merrifield and Salvador Perez. He's expensive, but ...i'm done with Willson. Then get either Machado or Harper and bludgeon the NL

I ma not a Contreras fan at all. There is passionate and then there isn't hyperactive/obnoxious - Willson is the latter. He is terrible behind the plate. Anybody who does not acknowledge that has barely watched him, is willfully ignorant, or both. He is the absolute worst framer in the game and his blocking is bad as well. Most frustrating with Willson is that he has gotten no better since he entered the league.

HOWEVER...

I don't like your deal because you have made the Cubs significantly older and acquired Perez with his best days behind him. He is 28, but there are a ton of innings on those knees. Yadier Molina is the aging exception and not the rule.

With the horrible contracts of Heyward, Darvish, and Chatwood, the Cubs need the affordability of Contreras, Schwarber, and Happ if they are going to get Harper.

 

[ClarindaA's]

I ma not a Contreras fan at all. There is passionate and then there isn't hyperactive/obnoxious - Willson is the latter. He is terrible behind the plate. Anybody who does not acknowledge that has barely watched him, is willfully ignorant, or both. He is the absolute worst framer in the game and his blocking is bad as well. Most frustrating with Willson is that he has gotten no better since he entered the league.

HOWEVER...

I don't like your deal because you have made the Cubs significantly older and acquired Perez with his best days behind him. He is 28, but there are a ton of innings on those knees. Yadier Molina is the aging exception and not the rule.

With the horrible contracts of Heyward, Darvish, and Chatwood, the Cubs need the affordability of Contreras, Schwarber, and Happ if they are going to get Harper.

JT Realmuto wants traded.... send them Contreras and Happ, get back Castro and JT. Javy at ss, Castro at 2nd.

 

[dgordo]

Contreras was really bad this year, no doubt about it but I’m not ready to give up on him. He needs a veteran back up to fill in more and help him. Rene Rivera is available and was well liked during his cubs stint.

 

[WorldSeriesChamps2015]

Trade Happ, Contreras, and Schwarber for Merrifield and Salvador Perez. He's expensive, but ...i'm done with Willson. Then get either Machado or Harper and bludgeon the NL

Come on Man! As a Cubs and Royals fan, you can't trade away Salvy, he's a lifer in KC. Plus, honestly, how many more years can you really see Salvy being a catcher. DH is gonna be his position by 2021 with Melendez and Viloria coming up. Now I do think Merrifield would be a good fit in Chicago especially with Nicky Lopez pretty much ready to take over 2nd. BUT saying that, Dayton idiot Moore needs to sell HIGH on Merrifield. Schwarber aint gonna cut it. Need a pitcher that is about ready to go to the majors.

 

[ClarindaA's]

Come on Man! As a Cubs and Royals fan, you can't trade away Salvy, he's a lifer in KC. Plus, honestly, how many more years can you really see Salvy being a catcher. DH is gonna be his position by 2021 with Melendez and Viloria coming up. Now I do think Merrifield would be a good fit in Chicago especially with Nicky Lopez pretty much ready to take over 2nd. BUT saying that, Dayton idiot Moore needs to sell HIGH on Merrifield. Schwarber aint gonna cut it. Need a pitcher that is about ready to go to the majors.

I found a better fit

 

[WorldSeriesChamps2015]

I found a better fit

Merrifield is a good fit for teh Cubbies though. Id take Schwarber and a pitching prospect for him.

 

[HawkRugged17]

 

[SoDakHawk]

We knew that was going to happen, he wasn't getting $5 million anywhere else.

 

[CuttyDoesIt]

Merrifield is a good fit for teh Cubbies though. Id take Schwarber and a pitching prospect for him.

You don't want our pitching prospects

 

[WorldSeriesChamps2015]

You don't want our pitching prospects

They can’t be as horrible as Ian Kennedy, that would be really bad!

 

[dgordo]

i can live with kintzler at that price, i think he will be better this year, he couldnt be worse.

 

[dgordo]

 

[lucas80]

i can live with kintzler at that price, i think he will be better this year, he couldnt be worse.

It might be an echo chamber on the Score, but the consensus is he was not healthy for most of his time with the Cubs.

 

[hawkifann]

It might be an echo chamber on the Score, but the consensus is he was not healthy for most of his time with the Cubs.

I can live with Kintzler at that price. As stated, he may have been hurt and likely will pitch better. If not, $5M isn’t so much that you can’t walk away during the season next year.

 

[HawkRugged17]

 

[HawkRugged17]

 

[dgordo]

View embedded media

Who could they possibly deal that would clear enough salary?

 

[TheCainer]

Who could they possibly deal that would clear enough salary?

Darvish?

 

[LuteHawk]

Schwarber will be traded to the American League to
a team that needs a DH. He is not a NL player since
he is a liability on defense. Theo will finally part with
his fascination over the potential of Schwarber. Now
Theo wants some productive players.

 

[MuscoHawk]

Schwarber will be traded to the American League to
a team that needs a DH. He is not a NL player since
he is a liability on defense. Theo will finally part with
his fascination over the potential of Schwarber. Now
Theo wants some productive players.

How did he actually score defensively? He’s got a great arm and I don’t remember too many egregious errors.

 

[HawkeyesAndCubs1023]

The report from Rosenthal has a number of prominent #CubsTwitter accounts speculating that this likely means the Cubs are going to fight to stay below the $246M mega luxury tax line.

I will own the fact that I have been too negative and reacfionady in this thread in 2017-2018. One of my biggest gaffes was my declaration that the Cubs failed to sell high on Javy and his plate discipline profile will never allow him to be more than average at the plate. Thrilled to be wrong.

But I have continually said that Theo has been absolutely atrocious since the World Series title, and that what should have been a decade-long run will likely be a shorter window.

Some folks in this thread have expressed zero concern about any of Theo's moves, holding to the following assumptions:

1. It doesn't matter if the org is the worst in baseball at finding and developing pitching, because they can always buy it.

2. Bad contracts for Heyward, Darvish, and Chatwood don't matter because "it's just money" and it won't prevent the Cubs from doing what they want in free agency.

These assumptions are based on the idea that Tom Ricketts is going to operate without a budget.

This is different from Steinbrenner's day as the luxury tax is far more punitive than it was.

Theo's inability to develop pitching will almost certainly limit his ability to spend freely as guys like Bryant and Baez are no longer cheap.

 

[hawkifann]

The report from Rosenthal has a number of prominent #CubsTwitter accounts speculating that this likely means the Cubs are going to fight to stay below the $246M mega luxury tax line.

This wouldn't surprise me, as the new mega luxury tax penalties are steep. The Cubs don't have top draft picks these days, but they're not going to want to see them dropped 10 slots and they're not going to want to sacrifice a ton of international money.

I've gone back and forth with you in these threads and I've never tried to imply that there are no worries with the points you raise - there are certainly concerns. The Cubs have already spent their way past some bad contracts, and there's no doubt that gets harder as KB continues to get more expensive and Javy starts costing real money. Montgomery will get significantly more expensive this year, too (though IMHO, will still be a bargain at the likely price).

The Cubs have some options this offseason. I do expect to see a couple trades, possibly a blockbuster type, and I think the Cubs will either make a run at one of the top guys (Harper/Machado) or may potentially see if they can use those two as cover to get a couple other players. This is a really good FA class. There may also be some things the Cubs can do to negotiate through things like Hamels' option year - perhaps renegotiate into a 2-year deal so that he gets his money, but is less per year against the cap.

It's going to be a very interesting offseason.