*****Official Cubs 2019 thread*****

[lucas80]

Who could they possibly deal that would clear enough salary?

I like Rosenthal, and I don't know that he normally pulls stuff straight from his ass, but there aren't logical choices here. Zobrist or Heyward? Mind you, I don't even know if they have NTCs or not. Rizzo? Clearing some money with the younger guys like Russell and Schwarber? I don't think that gets you where you need to be for Hammels. Nobody is taking Chatwood's contract without giving a crappy one back to the Cubs.

 

[hawkifann]

I like Rosenthal, and I don't know that he normally pulls stuff straight from his ass, but there aren't logical choices here. Zobrist or Heyward? Mind you, I don't even know if they have NTCs or not. Rizzo? Clearing some money with the younger guys like Russell and Schwarber? I don't think that gets you where you need to be for Hammels. Nobody is taking Chatwood's contract without giving a crappy one back to the Cubs.

Clearly, I think it depends on how high they're willing to go and what kind of FAs they'd like to pursue in the off-season. Those questions will determine whether they're trying to lose a few million here and a few million there, or whether they're trying to cut $30-40M or more. As it appears right now, if the Cubs retain everyone but Hamels, they're looking at something like $190M locked in, which would give them about $55M to potentially spend to stay under the "super tax" threshold.

I think there's a group that is going nowhere, either because they're key players or are guys that would be really hard to move: Lester, Darvish, Heyward, Chatwood, Morrow.

There's another group that likely wouldn't be let go or traded because they're a good deal for the Cubs: Rizzo (bargain at $11M), Quintana (he's not an ace, but look at his $10.5M compared to Chatwood), Hendricks.

From there, it gets interesting. The Cubs could negotiate with KB, Javy, Hendricks to explore longer deals. If they come to an agreement, they might be able to get creative with the contract to minimize the up front cap hit.

I don't think TLS will be back, but that's a small save. Cubs will have a decision to make on Russell, too. Any major saves will be done via trade. The Cubs could deal Zobrist and his last $12M, but I don't expect it. If anyone has interest in Happ, Almora or Schwarber, the Cubs might be able to package one of those guys with Montgomery as an enticement to take maybe a Chatwood-level salary. Quintana could be another one to deal as an enticement to take on some bad money, though I still think Quintana is a good deal for the Cubs right now at $10.5M.

 

[dgordo]

 

[comet_y2k]

Cubs pick up the $20 million option on Hamels, trade Smyly to Rangers....that frees up $7 millions assuming the Cubs didn't hold on to any cash, which I assume they wouldnt.

 

[hawkifann]

So based on numbers widely estimated, that probably puts the Cubs at $204M right now if they bring everyone else back and the arbitration estimates are correct, which puts them right around $40M under the super tax.

 

[dgordo]

Cubs pick up the $20 million option on Hamels, trade Smyly to Rangers....that frees up $7 millions assuming the Cubs didn't hold on to any cash, which I assume they wouldnt.

 

[hawkifann]

So, that locks in the Cubs top 4 in the rotation: Lester, Hendricks, Hamels, Quintana (in whatever order). Montgomery would seem to have the leg up to be 5th starter, but if he's included in a trade then it would be Chatwood vs. a couple of the kids that might look to make a move up.

 

[comet_y2k]

So, that locks in the Cubs top 4 in the rotation: Lester, Hendricks, Hamels, Quintana (in whatever order). Montgomery would seem to have the leg up to be 5th starter, but if he's included in a trade then it would be Chatwood vs. a couple of the kids that might look to make a move up.

Yu?

 

[hawkifann]

Yu?

Oh yeah. I sort of forgot he existed. Oops.

 

[HawkRugged17]

Yu?

Moi?

 

[hawkifann]

Oh yeah. I sort of forgot he existed. Oops.

Now that Hamels is in the fold for sure, it might mean that the Cubs look to make Montgomery part of a deal. There are a lot of teams that would likely be very happy to plug him in as a cost-controlled starter. He's not necessarily much of a save, but he might help make a package look more attractive. It also means the Cubs might be able to deal Quintana to save his $10+M.

 

[HawkeyesAndCubs1023]

This wouldn't surprise me, as the new mega luxury tax penalties are steep. The Cubs don't have top draft picks these days, but they're not going to want to see them dropped 10 slots and they're not going to want to sacrifice a ton of international money.

I've gone back and forth with you in these threads and I've never tried to imply that there are no worries with the points you raise - there are certainly concerns. The Cubs have already spent their way past some bad contracts, and there's no doubt that gets harder as KB continues to get more expensive and Javy starts costing real money. Montgomery will get significantly more expensive this year, too (though IMHO, will still be a bargain at the likely price).

The Cubs have some options this offseason. I do expect to see a couple trades, possibly a blockbuster type, and I think the Cubs will either make a run at one of the top guys (Harper/Machado) or may potentially see if they can use those two as cover to get a couple other players. This is a really good FA class. There may also be some things the Cubs can do to negotiate through things like Hamels' option year - perhaps renegotiate into a 2-year deal so that he gets his money, but is less per year against the cap.

It's going to be a very interesting offseason.

So based on numbers widely estimated, that probably puts the Cubs at $204M right now if they bring everyone else back and the arbitration estimates are correct, which puts them right around $40M under the super tax.

Michael Cerami of Bleacher Nation says they are at $225M in payroll for luxury tax purposes. He's factoring in projected arbitration raises.

I tried to tell you that the "it's just money" argument for Darvish and Chatwood doesn't fly because it will limit them.

But hey, at least the Cubs have the 29th best farm system in baseball. And the arms in the lower minors are clearly for real this time (LOL).

 

[hawkifann]

Michael Cerami of Bleacher Nation says they are at $225M in payroll for luxury tax purposes. He's factoring in projected arbitration raises.

I tried to tell you that the "it's just money" argument for Darvish and Chatwood doesn't fly because it will limit them.

But hey, at least the Cubs have the 29th best farm system in baseball. And the arms in the lower minors are clearly for real this time (LOL).

Spotrac.com and other places I've seen have them at $211 before the Smyly move. We'll see where they map out, ultimately.

Since the Cubs have Darvish and he's not moveable and apparently isn't retiring, I'm just going to hope he's healthy. If he can pitch healthy in 2019, he could still be very good. Whether he's "worth" his contract or not is mostly irrelevant at this point because the money is allocated.

 

[HawkeyesAndCubs1023]

Spotrac.com and other places I've seen have them at $211 before the Smyly move. We'll see where they map out, ultimately.

Since the Cubs have Darvish and he's not moveable and apparently isn't retiring, I'm just going to hope he's healthy. If he can pitch healthy in 2019, he could still be very good. Whether he's "worth" his contract or not is mostly irrelevant at this point because the money is allocated.

Yu's career peaked in 2013. He could have a good year next year, but he hasn't strung two good years together since his Tommy John. Yu won't string two good season seasons together. Plus he lacks mental toughness, and the Cubs will have to juggle the rotation to ensure he never starts in Dodger Stadium because he is afraid of getting boo'd.

 

[hawkifann]

Yu's career peaked in 2013. He could have a good year next year, but he hasn't strung two good years together since his Tommy John. Yu won't string two good season seasons together. Plus he lacks mental toughness, and the Cubs will have to juggle the rotation to ensure he never starts in Dodger Stadium because he is afraid of getting boo'd.

You keep going down this path.....but this is a path to nowhere. Lester is past his prime. Zobrist is past his prime. Rizzo may have had his best season (as you've hammered on many times), Yu has probably had his best season.

Ok. So now what? The money is on the books at this point. You spent last season going on and on and on about how Rizzo would never be 2015-2016 Rizzo again. Ok....so cut him? Trade him? Send him to Iowa? Your focus always goes to the areas where really nothing can be done at this point.

You keep talking about the window closing....so what do you think they can do to extend it? What do you want them to do this offseason? The answer can't be to go back in time and change past moves.

 

[TC Nole OX]

Spotrac.com and other places I've seen have them at $211 before the Smyly move. We'll see where they map out, ultimately.

Since the Cubs have Darvish and he's not moveable and apparently isn't retiring, I'm just going to hope he's healthy. If he can pitch healthy in 2019, he could still be very good. Whether he's "worth" his contract or not is mostly irrelevant at this point because the money is allocated.

Darvish and whatever our expensive right fielders name is, I can't be bothered to open another tab and search, may have closed our window several years early. I hope Ricketts tells Theo no on any mega dollar signings until one of them is off the books. Maybe the cap penalty limitations will save us from another expensive long term error this offseason.

 

[hawkifann]

Darvish and whatever our expensive right fielders name is, I can't be bothered to open another tab and search, may have closed our window several years early. I hope Ricketts tells Theo no on any mega dollar signings until one of them is off the books. Maybe the cap penalty limitations will save us from another expensive long term error this offseason.

How about the Cubs just make a good signing instead of a bad one. The Darvish and Heyward contracts make everything harder right now but passing on an opportunity with a really good player that fits within the budget constraints of this season in a really good pool of free agents would be cutting off our nose to spite our face if it's an arbitrary "no signings until these guys are gone" situations. I'm sure Ricketts wants to win another ring as much as everyone else in the organization.

 

[HawkeyesAndCubs1023]

You keep going down this path.....but this is a path to nowhere. Lester is past his prime. Zobrist is past his prime. Rizzo may have had his best season (as you've hammered on many times), Yu has probably had his best season.

Ok. So now what? The money is on the books at this point. You spent last season going on and on and on about how Rizzo would never be 2015-2016 Rizzo again. Ok....so cut him? Trade him? Send him to Iowa? Your focus always goes to the areas where really nothing can be done at this point.

You keep talking about the window closing....so what do you think they can do to extend it? What do you want them to do this offseason? The answer can't be to go back in time and change past moves.

Jon Lester's best years are certainly behind him, but he was worth every penny of his contract regardless of what he does these final 2 years. I have never disputed that. No World Series without him.

I love Anthony Rizzo. I expect him to be a good hitter for the foreseeable future. I also expect that his peak was 2014-2016 (look up the numbers). His last two years have been down a tick. I think he'll be around a 125-130 wRC+ guy, with good 1B defense, and a great contract.

The Zobrist signing was also terrific.

But all I have been pointing out is that the ineptitude of the organization to develop cost-controlled pitching will be a limiting factor and could shorten the contention window. Yu Darvish and Tyler Chatwood made $33M last year and both brought negative value to team, and both have huge question marks going forward.

Nobody saw Jason Heyward becoming a terrible hitter, and there were two other teams (STL, Washington) willing to pay the same amount. That's bad fortune.

Theo is the one paid the big bucks to come up with the answers, and I wouldn't blame Tom Ricketts if he didn't let Theo offer another big contract based upon his horrible track record with $100M deals.

 

[doughuddl2]

So based on numbers widely estimated, that probably puts the Cubs at $204M right now if they bring everyone else back and the arbitration estimates are correct, which puts them right around $40M under the super tax.

So getting Harper will put them just slightly over.

 

[lucas80]

Yu's career peaked in 2013. He could have a good year next year, but he hasn't strung two good years together since his Tommy John. Yu won't string two good season seasons together. Plus he lacks mental toughness, and the Cubs will have to juggle the rotation to ensure he never starts in Dodger Stadium because he is afraid of getting boo'd.

You peaked as a poster around 2013.

 

[lucas80]

This seems like a gentleman's agreement trade. The Cubs saved the Rangers from eating $6 million, and they get what should be a useful arm in return for approximately the same amount.

 

[dgordo]

The Red Sox just won a World Series without a single system developed starter. You don’t need to develop pitching in house if you can develop enough bats. The question is will enough bats take a step forward this year.

 

[hawkifann]

Theo is the one paid the big bucks to come up with the answers, and I wouldn't blame Tom Ricketts if he didn't let Theo offer another big contract based upon his horrible track record with $100M deals.

In fairness, you contradict yourself here. You say Lester was 100% worth every penny (any sane Cub fan would agree) and you say that Heyward was unfortunate since he regressed far more than any metrics would have anticipated and other teams were ready to offer him the same money (agreed) and Yu was a bomb. I'll roll with Yu as a bomb.....that basically makes Theo 1-2 with a push (Heyward) on those massive deals. Not sure I'd handcuff a GM over that.

The young pitching thing is a valid criticism. I would hope we'll see some of those young arms take jumps this year and be successful at AA & AAA. If not, there likely need to be substantial changes within the player development system.

All that said, maybe the budget situation is a blessing in disguise. If we look back at Theo's FA history, it's largely been good. Maybe having him chase a couple guys who aren't top tier would be a good thing. Here's a sample of the overall FA activity since Theo got to Chicago:

Great: These are guys who have been quality signings worth their money and/or played massive roles in the Cubs' resurgence

• Jon Lester: Duh
• Jason Hammel: He might not have been "great" as a pitcher, but he was a solid piece of the in-season rotation for the 2015 Cubs and was very good the previous season, which allowed him to be traded with Samardjiza for Addison Russell
• David Ross: Helped the Cubs grow up and ended his playing career with a WS game 7 home run off Andrew Miller.
• John Lackey: Another vet that gave the young Cubs an edge. Wasn't always great, but he pitched a lot of big games.
• Ben Zobrist: In spite of bad/injured 2017, he's been worth every penny of his contract and beyond.
• Dexter Fowler: As he went, the Cubs went in 2016.

Solid: Here I'll put guys who were useful as solid role players and/or as parts for positive returns via trade.

• Reed Johnson & Paul Maholm: Decent players included in trade for Arodys Vizcaino, who was ultimately dealt for TLS
• Luis Valbuena: Signed in 2012 and later included in trade to the Astros for Dexter Fowler
• Jorge Soler: Made contributions on 2015-2016 Cubs and was dealt for Wade Davis
• Scott Feldman: Key piece in the deal for Jake Arrieta
• Carlos Villanueva: Included in trade for Justin Wilson and Alex Avila
• Scott Hairston: Traded for Ivan Ineyro, who was traded for Dan Haren, who helped the 2015 Cubs get into the playoffs.
• Chris Coghlan: Important depth piece of 2015-2016 Cubs
• Emilio Bonifacio: Signed and included in deal for Victor Caratini
• James Russell: Productive bullpen arm in 2015 and included in deal for Caratini
• John Jay: Out-produced his contract in 1 year stint

Bad: These will be the signings that were big money for no performance - guys who didn't perform close to the level of contract they were given. I'm not going to include players who were signed cheap and didn't perform here.

• Edwin Jackson: 4/$52M was Theo's first big signing and he was dreadful.
• Jason Heyward: He'll never play close to his contract in spite of a glove & arm that are still elite. He came to Chicago and lost his bat along the way.
• Yu Darvish: Huge contract and delivered absolutely nothing in 2018.
• Tyler Chatwood: See Edwin Jackson deal. Same $/yr, awful performance.
• Brett Anderson: Bad deal on injury-prone pitcher

 

[hawkifann]

So getting Harper will put them just slightly over.

Depends. Personally, I don't think they'll get Harper or Machado (may not even try that hard for either), but if being slightly over is the difference, there are guys they can deal or let go to clear the remaining room.

 

[dgordo]

also i think it is worth saying that injuries happen and are impossible to predict, but if bryant doesnt get hurt the cubs likely win closer to 100 games last year.

 

[H4wkfan4life]

also i think it is worth saying that injuries happen and are impossible to predict, but if bryant doesnt get hurt the cubs likely win closer to 100 games last year.

and still choke in the playoffs, so it wouldn't really matter.

 

[hawkifann]

and still choke in the playoffs, so it wouldn't really matter.

We'll never know. If we have a healthy KB all year (KB was a shell of himself coming off the DL), then the lineup might look entirely different.

 

[bagdropper]

Hime is correct about one thing. Not being able to develop more pitching is a bad thing in today's baseball.

The Cubs simply must get a lot better at it, and fast. They have so much money committed to so many guys already across the roster, and more coming pretty soon in the field - to where the payroll is going to be a hindrance in having any roster flexibility down the road.

And here's the irony. They might have to make some seriously hard, unpopular decisions on kids in the field they want to keep.

I know...one might say "the Cubs are a license to print money". Well, I'm here to tell ya, every owner has his limits - and it has been proven many times over recently, money does not necessarily buy championships. It can certainly cover up mistakes and keep you in the hunt every year...but sooner or later, your system must produce on an every year basis ML players for all positions on the roster.

Including (and especially IMHO) pitching.

And signing a guy like Machado or Harper would be crazy unless they have some sort of magical $30M/yr salary dump in the works.

 

[hawkifann]

Hime is correct about one thing. Not being able to develop more pitching is a bad thing in today's baseball.

The Cubs simply must get a lot better at it, and fast. They have so much money committed to so many guys already across the roster, and more coming pretty soon in the field - to where the payroll is going to be a hindrance in having any roster flexibility down the road.

And here's the irony. They might have to make some seriously hard, unpopular decisions on kids in the field they want to keep.

I know...one might say "the Cubs are a license to print money". Well, I'm here to tell ya, every owner has his limits - and it has been proven many times over recently, money does not necessarily buy championships. It can certainly cover up mistakes and keep you in the hunt every year...but sooner or later, your system must produce on an every year basis ML players for all positions on the roster.

Including (and especially IMHO) pitching.

And signing a guy like Machado or Harper would be crazy unless they have some sort of magical $30M/yr salary dump in the works.

You're absolutely right about unpopular decisions coming. I've known that would be true for years. I also agree on limits. I don't think the Cubs will ever go over the "super tax" level where draft picks are limited. There may be other limits before then, but I don't see current management doing that to themselves.

 

[Herky T Hawk]

Funny thing is that you guys are right about unpopular decisions coming up. A lot of fans would be unhappy if Bryant, Rizzo, Schwarber, or Baez were traded. But none of them are untouchable. Schwarber is probably gone first for some pitching. And while Rizzo is highly respected, he is also replaceable. Bryant has been an MVP and is young enough to do it again if healthy, but he will get so expensive that it may be hard to keep him. Baez is the guy I’d hate to see go the most as he’s just so fun to watch play, but he will get expensive in a few years too.

I’m worried that they’ll go like the Blackhawks have in keeping the core around for so long that once they deserve big contracts the team can’t afford to stock the rest of the team that well. At least the Blackhawks won multiple titles in their run.

 

[dgordo]

It’s extremely unlikely that Rizzo, Bryant or Baez is going away anytime soon. I guess some would be sad to see schwarber go but that wouldn’t be an unpopular decision.

 

[HawkRugged17]

 

[H4wkfan4life]

We'll never know. If we have a healthy KB all year (KB was a shell of himself coming off the DL), then the lineup might look entirely different.

could have rested some guys, but I'm still not sure they wouldn't choke....I'd say they probably would.
but yes, we'll never know.

 

[H4wkfan4life]

It’s extremely unlikely that Rizzo, Bryant or Baez is going away anytime soon. I guess some would be sad to see schwarber go but that wouldn’t be an unpopular decision.

If the deal is in our favor, I'm fine with anyone leaving .
Prefer tony stay though, really like him!

 

[hawkifann]

could have rested some guys, but I'm still not sure they wouldn't choke....I'd say they probably would.
but yes, we'll never know.

When has this core choked? They got beat by dominant pitching in 2015, they won it all in 2016 and they pulled an upset to make NLCS in 2017. I see no reason to have anticipated a choke. If they'd have been healthy, they'd have been a tough out.

 

[H4wkfan4life]

When has this core choked? They got beat by dominant pitching in 2015, they won it all in 2016 and they pulled an upset to make NLCS in 2017. I see no reason to have anticipated a choke. If they'd have been healthy, they'd have been a tough out.

15/17/18 the hitters blew it......
I would hardly call us beating the nats an "upset"......

 

[HawkeyesAndCubs1023]

In fairness, you contradict yourself here. You say Lester was 100% worth every penny (any sane Cub fan would agree) and you say that Heyward was unfortunate since he regressed far more than any metrics would have anticipated and other teams were ready to offer him the same money (agreed) and Yu was a bomb. I'll roll with Yu as a bomb.....that basically makes Theo 1-2 with a push (Heyward) on those massive deals. Not sure I'd handcuff a GM over that.

The young pitching thing is a valid criticism. I would hope we'll see some of those young arms take jumps this year and be successful at AA & AAA. If not, there likely need to be substantial changes within the player development system.

All that said, maybe the budget situation is a blessing in disguise. If we look back at Theo's FA history, it's largely been good. Maybe having him chase a couple guys who aren't top tier would be a good thing. Here's a sample of the overall FA activity since Theo got to Chicago:

Great: These are guys who have been quality signings worth their money and/or played massive roles in the Cubs' resurgence

• Jon Lester: Duh
• Jason Hammel: He might not have been "great" as a pitcher, but he was a solid piece of the in-season rotation for the 2015 Cubs and was very good the previous season, which allowed him to be traded with Samardjiza for Addison Russell
• David Ross: Helped the Cubs grow up and ended his playing career with a WS game 7 home run off Andrew Miller.
• John Lackey: Another vet that gave the young Cubs an edge. Wasn't always great, but he pitched a lot of big games.
• Ben Zobrist: In spite of bad/injured 2017, he's been worth every penny of his contract and beyond.
• Dexter Fowler: As he went, the Cubs went in 2016.

Solid: Here I'll put guys who were useful as solid role players and/or as parts for positive returns via trade.

• Reed Johnson & Paul Maholm: Decent players included in trade for Arodys Vizcaino, who was ultimately dealt for TLS
• Luis Valbuena: Signed in 2012 and later included in trade to the Astros for Dexter Fowler
• Jorge Soler: Made contributions on 2015-2016 Cubs and was dealt for Wade Davis
• Scott Feldman: Key piece in the deal for Jake Arrieta
• Carlos Villanueva: Included in trade for Justin Wilson and Alex Avila
• Scott Hairston: Traded for Ivan Ineyro, who was traded for Dan Haren, who helped the 2015 Cubs get into the playoffs.
• Chris Coghlan: Important depth piece of 2015-2016 Cubs
• Emilio Bonifacio: Signed and included in deal for Victor Caratini
• James Russell: Productive bullpen arm in 2015 and included in deal for Caratini
• John Jay: Out-produced his contract in 1 year stint

Bad: These will be the signings that were big money for no performance - guys who didn't perform close to the level of contract they were given. I'm not going to include players who were signed cheap and didn't perform here.

• Edwin Jackson: 4/$52M was Theo's first big signing and he was dreadful.
• Jason Heyward: He'll never play close to his contract in spite of a glove & arm that are still elite. He came to Chicago and lost his bat along the way.
• Yu Darvish: Huge contract and delivered absolutely nothing in 2018.
• Tyler Chatwood: See Edwin Jackson deal. Same $/yr, awful performance.
• Brett Anderson: Bad deal on injury-prone pitcher

You forgot Carl Crawford in Boston. That deal helped get Theo shown the door. If Ned Colletti doesn’t take that deal off of their hands (LA spent recklessly around 2012-2013 to get the city into their team) Boston may not have two rings since then.

His deal for Lackey in Boston was $82M and mostly bad.

Where is the Quintana deal in your list above?

 

[hawkifann]

You forgot Carl Crawford in Boston. That deal helped get Theo shown the door. If Ned Colletti doesn’t take that deal off of their hands (LA spent recklessly around 2012-2013 to get the city into their team) Boston may not have two rings since then.

His deal for Lackey in Boston was $82M and mostly bad.

Where is the Quintana deal in your list above?

I made it very clear that I was looking at FA signings in Chicago. I don't recall the Cubs signing Carl Crawford or Lackey for $82M. Links?

I also didn't realize that the Cubs both signed Quintana as a FA and gave up top prospects for him. Holy crap that was stupid.

 

[dgordo]

 

[HawkeyesAndCubs1023]

I made it very clear that I was looking at FA signings in Chicago. I don't recall the Cubs signing Carl Crawford or Lackey for $82M. Links?

I also didn't realize that the Cubs both signed Quintana as a FA and gave up top prospects for him. Holy crap that was stupid.

Haste makes waste. Did not read close enough.

I will admit to being too negative. On the other hand, you are a Pollyanna when it comes to this organization going forward.

I hope you are right, but when the payroll flexibility wanes, and the farm system is a steaming pile (which the Cubs certainly is), the window (which there should not be for a big money franchise like the Cubs) generally shortens. Two years ago, the Cubs ranked #1 in FanGraphs "next 5 years" rankings. They are currently at 7th. It's not just negative Cubs fans who think this.

I expect the Cubs to be good next year, because Theo will continue to be as short-term focused as Ricketts will allow him to be, and then 2020 will start the gradual decline. Theo will leave after his contract is up to go slay a new dragon. I just hope the Cubs don't look like the current SF Giants when that happens.