Someone convince me this is wrong...
- Thread starter coloradonoles
- Start date
I don't know why you've colored Iowa red for an automatic win for Trump.
I think this is the BEST Biden can hope for.
Nobody should waste any time trying to convince you that you are wrong.
Well, Biden is going to win at least a district in Nebraska, so you are guaranteed to be wrong there. Trump is behind, and some way behind in the states you have given to him. Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona, ect. Your expecting 2016 with even more exaggeration, while understating increased voter turn out for the democrats. I think you are going to be greatly disappointed.
Just my guess.
Like it or not... I fear this will all come down to the 9+million votes in Pennsylvania.
PA was so damn close in 2016. And PA has had a solid history of voting democratic with over 50%. Everyone is saying it's the key state.
| Nominee | Donald Trump | Hillary Clinton |
| Popular vote | 2,970,733 | 2,926,441 |
| Percentage | 48.18% | 47.46% |
| Nominee | Barack Obama | Mitt Romney |
| Popular vote | 2,990,274 | 2,680,434 |
| Percentage | 51.97% | 46.59% |
| Nominee | Barack Obama | John McCain |
| Popular vote | 3,276,363 | 2,655,885 |
| Percentage | 54.47% | 44.15% |
| Nominee | John Kerry | George W. Bush |
| Popular vote | 2,938,095 | 2,793,847 |
| Percentage | 50.92% | 48.42% |
| Nominee | Al Gore | George W. Bush |
| Popular vote | 2,485,967 | 2,281,127 |
| Percentage | 50.60% | 46.43% |
- Sep 13, 2002
- 94,061
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One way or another this is the election that will either prove or disprove the “polls are wrong!” contingent.
My belief is the polls were quite accurate in 2016 and 2018 and will be again. People seem to forget that it is primarily campaigns themselves that pay for polling - and they are not paying millions for bad data. Follow the money.
My belief is the polls were quite accurate in 2016 and 2018 and will be again. People seem to forget that it is primarily campaigns themselves that pay for polling - and they are not paying millions for bad data. Follow the money.
Well then, you will be one happy person! Congrats!!
Another question....what percent of the pop vote nationwide do you think your boy will get? Do you think he will get more votes than Biden? I think he’s gonna get swamped in the pop vote...worse than last time...but he may pull it out In the EC.
Another question....what percent of the pop vote nationwide do you think your boy will get? Do you think he will get more votes than Biden? I think he’s gonna get swamped in the pop vote...worse than last time...but he may pull it out In the EC.
Or talking to him about anything really. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice... you can't get fooled again.
Lol. I will cut off my left testicle if Trump gets 313.
I think your map is pretty close. But I’m not sold that NC goes to Trump. I think this election comes down to NC and PA.
It's certainly plausible, but one miss on FL, GA, NC or PA and it flips to Biden. Let's HOPE that AZ isn't the only miss on that map.
- Sep 13, 2002
- 94,061
- 190,264
- 113
Or last time in Florida
"In Florida, Clinton is ahead of Trump by three points among likely voters, 45 percent to 42 percent "
- Sep 13, 2002
- 94,061
- 190,264
- 113
That was a pretty decent poll. Final count in FLA in 2016 was 49 percent to 48 percent for Trump - well within the 4 point margin of error.
If this poll also undercounts Trump by the exact same amount as the 2016 poll, it will be Biden 50 percent to Trump 47 percent.
This is HROT,.. It's impossible to convince anyone of anything.
- Sep 13, 2002
- 94,061
- 190,264
- 113
This is interesting - disparity between national and state polling is shrinking. This makes sense as we run out of time. This race has been remarkably stable in October.
Nobody knows, but i think some of team MAGA who think this is just like 2016 are missing the importance of Biden breaking the 50% barrier in some of the swing state polls.
Also, it's been pointed out repeatedly, but polls this year have seen nowhere near the amount of dramatic shifts/movements we saw in 2016. The race overall is far more stable.
I think Trump wins Nevada, and he wins at least 1 out of 3 between MN, WI, and MI (might win 2 of 3).
I think this is the BEST Biden can hope for.
I think it comes down to how many GOP state legislatures are willing to throw out the vote and give their electoral votes to Trump.
- Sep 13, 2002
- 94,061
- 190,264
- 113
Another huge difference from 2016:
Biden’s yawning favorability edge
One of the most undersold and important ways (among many) in which Biden appears primed to avoid a shocking, Hillary Clinton-esque loss is favorability. A poll Wednesday affirmed it.
The CNN poll showed Biden with a pretty sterling image rating: 55 percent favorable and 42 percent unfavorable. That plus-13 was notably far better than Trump, who was 16 points underwater (41 percent favorable to 57 percent unfavorable).
And while the gap was particularly pronounced, it’s merely the latest evidence that Biden has actually gotten more popular as the race has worn on — in contrast to Clinton, who wound up about as unpopular as Trump on Election Day 2016 (about 6 in 10 voters disliked each of them).
The only way Trump wins is if he steals the election or contests it and steals it using the SCOTUS. Both are likely.
Not sure how much of this fits with the Obama/McCain vote in PA but... I imagine there was a rather large black turnout for that election. It looks like the 2020 black turnout in Georgia will exceed 2016. If that extrapolates to other states, PA for instance, maybe Trump doesn't win there...
The good news if you are correct, we might get to experience living in a foreign country. Been considering it for retirement and we're getting tired of working. A Trump win MIGHT be the proverbial straw. No its not a threat/promise/whatever so don't get your panties in a wad...
I think this is the BEST Biden can hope for.
I hope some Trump supporters are willing to match you on this, double or nothing.
Wait 5 days, compare then get back to us on how close/far off you were.
I think this is the BEST Biden can hope for.
WTF are you talking about? Look at his map. Minnesota - that’s MN - it’s the state above Iowa, is Blue. Blue means that OP has it picked for Biden, not Trump as you stated.
Disagree - you just might not convince me of the point you're hoping for
touche'
Not true. I've been taught multiple things on this site. My thinking is much different than it was 10 years ago. 19 years ago.
