This actually the most likely scenario based on the KF era.
First, the scoring stat is always biased against the ground and pound offenses. The KF model, and it was the dominant model until the rules changes slanted heavily in favor of the passing offenses, will never produce a high scoring, yardage volume team. The team will always be built that way. Citing national scoring numbers is not helpful in evaluating Iowa's offense.
But...the dramatic decline from last season to this season cannot continue. When something cannot continue it does not continue. The coaches cannot be fully candid, there's a lot of politics in their jobs. You know that both KF and BF know this terrible offense cannot continue.
I only know a few people who get to see practices or parts of practices these days, but every one of them has said both Labas and May are more skilled and athletic than Padilla or Petras. But they also say that Spencer really looks much better in practice, and unsurprisingly very much in command of the offense. I think KF looks at the young guys and mostly just sees the mistakes while still looking for Spencer to play in games like he plays in practices. I think that is where risk aversion meets old man stubborn and KF is afraid to risk mistakes so he plays a guy that actually creates more big picture risk.
The line is more puzzling. The move to Logan Jones was perplexing and remains so. Myslinski was a highly recruited center, we stole him from Texas so I don't know why the summer experiment didn't end when Myslinksi was fully healthy (if he is). It would be hard to be a worse center than Jones. But Plumb is the only senior and he's the second worst lineman. Just don't see him as hard to replace. They will all be a year older and have substantial starting experience, individually and as a unit. So I think we upgrade the two worst positions on the offense.
Never get lost in moment. People were howling like scalded dogs for KFs head after 2013 and two years later the Hawks are 12-0. I said the Stanley bashers would miss him when he graduated. Spencer Petras will be forgotten by half time of the season opener.
I'll pass along a little extra I heard from those that have seen Carson May practice. Apparently, Carson doesn't fully follow the red jersey rules. The defenders will hit him and apparently Carson is not afraid to deliver a hit. Nothing brutal but Carson seems to enjoy banging around with defenders. Not sure if that's a good or bad QB trait but it sure is funny.