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This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...
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Senior Defense Official Holds a Background Briefing
A senior defense official held a background briefing.
www.defense.gov
- Sep 13, 2002
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So those are Ukrainian tanks firing then? I wonder how much armor the UKR forces have. Most of the footage I've seen has been infantry only.
- Sep 13, 2002
- 94,722
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We're seeing them use a lot more unclassified communications because their classified communications capability is -- is being -- is -- well, for one reason or another, is not as strong as it should be.
Senior Defense Official Holds a Background Briefing
A senior defense official held a background briefing.www.defense.gov
Dude almost shared too much there, I bet! That is, I bet *we* are doing some things to disrupt the Russian comms, but don't want to say it out loud.
Russians are doing their own part on messing up the comms / OPSEC. I find it hard not to laugh at. Officially a 3rd world country
hawkeyetraveler
HR Heisman
The spirit of the Ukrainian people is incredible In the face of unimaginable hardship.
China is heavily reliant on grains and meats from Western countries
Do you really think they are going to sit back and let Putin destroy their social infrastructure, too?
Without the ability to feed their own people, civil unrest rots them from the inside, too, if Putin "radiates" much of the Western world.
Yessir. Russia doesn’t have a stealth threat anyway. So, second rate air defense is capable of shooting down second rate 3rd and 4th generation Russian aircraft.
And most of the airspace around Moscow is closed off
Unless he wants a long long vacation in a bunker in Siberia...
So, I peaced out on this thread for a while. Was sick of the political arguing, and then went on vacation and logged off. Probably needed a mental health break from this as well.
But I've got a question for those who have continued to follow closely. A week or so in, when the sanctions started coming in fast an furious, a lot of commentators stated with pretty strong authority that the Russian economy would totally collapse within weeks if not days, that it would be total chaos for average Russians throughout the country.
While I'm sure the effects have been significant, it doesn't appear to me that this has completely borne out. At least not to the extent that some led us to believe, with nobody in Russia having the ability to buy, sell or produce normal products. It doesn't appear to have crippled everyday life in Russia as some have predicted.
Were the predictions overblown? I know China and India have somewhat remained supportive of Russia, but is that propping up the entire economy?
Has anyone done a deep dive on why Russia hasn't devolved into total economic anarchy? Or is it just the typical thing where people make authoritative predictions, and when it doesn't come true, just move on like its nothing?
But I've got a question for those who have continued to follow closely. A week or so in, when the sanctions started coming in fast an furious, a lot of commentators stated with pretty strong authority that the Russian economy would totally collapse within weeks if not days, that it would be total chaos for average Russians throughout the country.
While I'm sure the effects have been significant, it doesn't appear to me that this has completely borne out. At least not to the extent that some led us to believe, with nobody in Russia having the ability to buy, sell or produce normal products. It doesn't appear to have crippled everyday life in Russia as some have predicted.
Were the predictions overblown? I know China and India have somewhat remained supportive of Russia, but is that propping up the entire economy?
Has anyone done a deep dive on why Russia hasn't devolved into total economic anarchy? Or is it just the typical thing where people make authoritative predictions, and when it doesn't come true, just move on like its nothing?
The White House PEOC is rumored to be able to withstand a relatively close range nuclear detonation. No bunker that we, Russia or anyone has can withstand a direct megaton yield blast though. Not even Cheyenne Mountain.
I think the general consensus was that it would take time to run through inventory and for things to make an impact. Best estimates seem to be June. With a kind of zombie economy until then.
We are three weeks in and the tank and truck factory just ran out of parts. That’s going to happen a lot more in the future.
This fills me with murderous rage. No death is too cruel or unusual for Putin IMO
Yes, it was overblown, hence my comment on the first day that Biden announced them to the effect that we were too late and that we needed sanctions/assistance of more immediate impact. The west, being economically driven, tends to see everything through that prism, and I think probably underestimated the Russians' (or, the Russian leadership's) willingness to suffer (or impose suffering) in time of war, and perhaps even to go relatively "off the grid" a la North Korea. Further, I think we thought the billionaires controlled Putin, rather than the other way around (again, projecting our own sense of things on to them and forgetting their long tradition of security apparatus). Mind you, it remains to be seen whether they really can go off the grid, and for how long.
Thankfully, I think many, myself included, underestimated the Ukrainians' willingness to resist militarily, and, as with the Russians, their ability to suffer. I doubt that the people in this country have what either of them have in that regard.
How long before Russia starts selling their excess nukes for cash?
Wrecked economy...frozen assets. Oligarchs have to get their cash from somewhere right?
Say hello to Nuclear proliferation....
At the end of the cold war we had the same scenario...unfortunately there won't be US/Russia cooperation in securing their nukes this time...
news.stanford.edu
Hecker and the rest of the Americans were deeply concerned about the one million-plus Russians who worked in nuclear facilities. Many faced severe financial pressure in an imploding society and thus constituted a huge potential security risk.
“The challenge that Russia faced with its economy collapsing was enormous,” he said in an interview.
The Russian scientists, Hecker said, were motivated to act responsibly because they realized the awful destruction that a single nuclear bomb could wreak. Hecker noted that one Russian scientist told him, “We arrived in the nuclear century all in one boat, and a movement by anyone will affect everyone.” Hecker noted, “Therefore, you know, we were doomed to work together to cooperate.”
All of this depended on the two governments involved easing nuclear tensions while allowing the scientists to collaborate. In short order, the scientists developed mutual respect and trust to address the loose nukes scenario.
Wrecked economy...frozen assets. Oligarchs have to get their cash from somewhere right?
Say hello to Nuclear proliferation....
At the end of the cold war we had the same scenario...unfortunately there won't be US/Russia cooperation in securing their nukes this time...
Cooperation of U.S., Russian scientists helped avoid nuclear catastrophe at Cold War's end, Stanford scholar says | Stanford News
During the fall of the Soviet Union, U.S. and Russian scientists and engineers joined together over a 20-year period to prevent nuclear materials and secrets from getting into the wrong hands, Stanford scholar Siegfried Hecker said.
news.stanford.edu
Economic collapse, political turmoil
But the nuclear experts faced an immense problem. The Soviets had about 39,000 nuclear weapons in their country and in Eastern Europe and about 1.5 million kilograms of plutonium and highly enriched uranium (the fuel for nuclear bombs), Hecker said. Consider that the bomb that the U.S. dropped on the Japanese city of Nagasaki in 1945 was only six kilograms of plutonium, he added. Meanwhile, the U.S. had about 25,000 nuclear weapons in the early 1990s.Hecker and the rest of the Americans were deeply concerned about the one million-plus Russians who worked in nuclear facilities. Many faced severe financial pressure in an imploding society and thus constituted a huge potential security risk.
“The challenge that Russia faced with its economy collapsing was enormous,” he said in an interview.
The Russian scientists, Hecker said, were motivated to act responsibly because they realized the awful destruction that a single nuclear bomb could wreak. Hecker noted that one Russian scientist told him, “We arrived in the nuclear century all in one boat, and a movement by anyone will affect everyone.” Hecker noted, “Therefore, you know, we were doomed to work together to cooperate.”
All of this depended on the two governments involved easing nuclear tensions while allowing the scientists to collaborate. In short order, the scientists developed mutual respect and trust to address the loose nukes scenario.
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The one that also nukes Moscow if they see a launch.
hawkeyetraveler
HR Heisman
They’re not cut off from the world though. The sanctions in effect put a tariff on the European (and American) producers that would otherwise use Russian raw materials.
The Russians are still going to sell all the oil they can pump and load into tankers or pipelines. China, India, Asia and Africa are still customers.
I say all this to say, don’t put too many eggs in the ‘sanctions’ basket crushing Russia. They’ll just have to sell Chinese, etc imported brands instead of European.
I guess the Euro luxury cars will be an even bigger status symbol.
You say this, but there’s a reason Russia won’t open their stock market and why the Ruble is trading at a penny.
Belarus is not a serious threat and they would be stupid to try. Plus the rail lines to Ukraine are cut. Lukaschenko has his hands full staying in power as it is.
Oh, so just adding more nukes to the end of world scenario. Here I thought you were implying they'd actually be able to prevent what everyone, including our military leaders and politicians, are worried about.
Thanks for clearing that up.
JFC you guys crack me up.
You're probably right....I'd expect the Chinese to buy up cheap Russian assets.
I just think this conflict is going to have all kinds of unanticipated effects outside the death and destruction in Ukraine....not many of them good.
...and has been for weeks now. To be sure there are impacts that can be measured in economic terms. But those impacts do not immediately translate to political compulsion in a society that's been autocratic for the better part of 1000 years.
You seem to be oblivious to the "own goal" aspect of this.
Putin, all of his oligarchs and everyone of any political influence in Russia gets incinerated or loses in this scenario. That's one helluvan incentive to shut Putin down, internally.
Hands down the biggest idiot in Washington...which is filled with idiots.
I think the deterioration of Russia’s economy won’t be immediate, but it will be steady at a somewhat quick pace.
If the Belarussians conscript him and the fam into fighting in Ukraine, I'd call this one an "Own Goal"....
That's almost word for word what Poet has said many times. Is it possible? Poet is MTG and MTG is Poet!
Right, but if they buy at a 30% discount, that’s an enormous change to Russia’s GDP.
It's going to be steady. And it's going to be "not reversible" on a multi-year, perhaps decade+ time-frame.
- Sep 13, 2002
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I don't say this about many people, but I wouldn't bat an eye if someone put a bullet in the back of that traitor's skull.
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