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This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...

NATO treaty does not require defense of member states. Article V says that each member state may respond by taking the actions we deem necessary….we could respond by a strongly worded message and flipping Putin off and still fulfill our obligations
We've made it abundantly clear we'd honor our NATO treaty obligations militarily.

He attacks a NATO member it's game on....he knows it.



 
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so why would that calculus suddenly change if Putin does the same thing to Poland or the baltics?
What is different about Putin launching a war on a nuclear armed alliance of 30 nations?

The risk of escalating the war is the scenario you’ve outlined. You’re asking how is the worst case scenario different from making Ukraine into a worst case scenario.

We all just watched this dude seriously miscalculate. You pin hopes on him not miscalculating again if we escalate the war in a manner he has already threatened will result in "consequences greater than any you have faced in history”?

We can’t unring the bell if he responds by nuking the second largest city in the Baltics and Poland, and says “get out of this war, or it gets worse”.
Nobody gets to ‘win’ after that line gets crossed.
Just various degrees of losing for all of us.
 
NATO treaty does not require defense of member states. Article V says that each member state may respond by taking the actions we deem necessary….we could respond by a strongly worded message and flipping Putin off and still fulfill our obligations
And at that point NATO would effectively cease to exist.
 
We've made it abundantly clear we'd honor our NATO treaty obligations militarily.

He attacks a NATO member it's game on....he knows it.



And I agree with that stance, but I don’t see how that changes my point.

Why would suddenly nuclear war be palatable at that point compared to now, when we’re seeing what we’re seeing of the horrific acts?

If the risk of nuclear war outweighs all of this, then shouldn’t it also outweigh the risk of him doing this to other European countries?
 


"It seems that in one day we fired Kabaeva and deprived her of a billion in income. Her page has disappeared from the National Media Group website. Yesterday, when I posted the thread, Kabaeva's page was in place. And now she's gone. Hahaha, they really believe that this will help to avoid sanctions"
 
And I agree with that stance, but I don’t see how that changes my point.

Why would suddenly nuclear war be palatable at that point compared to now, when we’re seeing what we’re seeing of the horrific acts?

If the risk of nuclear war outweighs all of this, then shouldn’t it also outweigh the risk of him doing this to other European countries?
It's called deterrence....Putin hasn't crossed that NATO country line because of it. He knows he'd get his ass kicked. If he didn't respect that line he'd have gone after the easy targets called the Baltic states....he hasn't touched them. Why? NATO...

It's pretty much that simple...

With the ass whoopin the Ukrainians have given him the talk of him moving on Poland or any other NATO country is pretty silly...
 
Well Laura...some people have little patience for dipshits that disregard the Nuclear threat.
You think Wesley Clark and David Patreus are dipshits?

Both have discounted the nuclear threat in their call for amped up weapons delivery and pressure from NATO/Europe.
 
I still can't believe that 80 years after WW2 a nation can destroy another nation with virtual impunity. Whole cities are being erased and the civilian death count will surely total in the 100s of thousands when all is said and done. But feel good - not an inch of NATO soil has been violated...yet.
 
I still can't believe that 80 years after WW2 a nation can destroy another nation with virtual impunity. Whole cities are being erased and the civilian death count will surely total in the 100s of thousands when all is said and done. But feel good - not an inch of NATO soil has been violated...yet.
Great post.
 
The nuclear shit is just a bluff. India and Pakistan are killing each other all the time and have nukes. Putin knows if he uses nukes his Russian empire is radioactive waste. He isn't retarded.
No doubt, the nuclear threat is a strange one in that it is generally unusable. BUT, I am having a hard time thinking of a previous crisis situation (including India and Pakistan) where the potential end game of the conventional conflict included a potential existential threat to the leadership of one side or the other. Indeed, it is a key assumption of nonproliferation doctrine that the most important people to keep nuclear weapons away from are the ones who, for religious, military, or whatever other reasons, feel like they have nothing to lose.

This is a little different, and probably a particularly good instance where a nuclear deterrent -- particularly one in which a state has tactical nukes as part of its doctrine - is best not to be "testing" for shits and giggles.
 
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You think Wesley Clark and David Patreus are dipshits?

Both have discounted the nuclear threat in their call for amped up weapons delivery and pressure from NATO/Europe.
I’m for amped up weapons delivery.

I’m talking about direct military intervention…which neither of them are calling for to my knowledge

Arming them is part of the Cold War “rules”. Soviets armed NK and China in the Korean War and the Armed the North Vietnamese.

I’m for helping the Ukrainians short of direct military involvement
 
I guess I’m confused, I thought he was a Putin ally, but I also see he must have run against him for president?
I don't really know much about him but from what I've gathered online, many say he was a far right leader who even far right people in Russia didn't take seriously. Sort of the over the top idiot saying idiotic things to make Putin and other seem reasonable. He was allowed to function in this capacity because he served the role of saying outlandish things well.

If you have any other questions I'll need to consult the reddit threads again.
 
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I’m for amped up weapons delivery.

I’m talking about direct military intervention…which neither of them are calling for to my knowledge

Arming them is part of the Cold War “rules”. Soviets armed NK and China in the Korean War and the Armed the North Vietnamese.

I’m for helping the Ukrainians short of direct military involvement
You will cross the redline. It is just a matter of time.
 
It's called deterrence....Putin hasn't crossed that NATO country line because of it. He knows he'd get his ass kicked. If he didn't respect that line he'd have gone after the easy targets called the Baltic states....he hasn't touched them. Why? NATO...

It's pretty much that simple...

With the ass whoopin the Ukrainians have given him the talk of him moving on Poland or any other NATO country is pretty silly
Or it could be that Ukraine is the much more lucrative prize for the Russians. If NATO does not respond militarily to the invasion and atrocities in Ukraine, because of the nuclear threat, Putin could just as well assume that NATO would take the same stance with attacks on the Baltic states.

Additionally, if trump should regain the presidency in 2025, the NATO charter would be as worthless as the tits on a boar. The European members would not respond militarily if the US refuses to.
 
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Or it could be that Ukraine is the much more lucrative prize for the Russians. If NATO does not respond militarily to the invasion and atrocities in Ukraine, because of the nuclear threat, Putin could just as well assume that NATO would take the same stance with attacks on the Baltic states.

But we, and other NATO members, already have troops already in the Baltic states.

Additionally, if trump should regain the presidency in 2025, the NATO charter would be as worthless as the tits on a boar. The European members would not respond militarily if the US refuses to.

If that's the case, it says just as much about European NATO members as it does us.
 
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Or it could be that Ukraine is the much more lucrative prize for the Russians. If NATO respond militarily to the invasion and atrocities in Ukraine, because of the nuclear threat, Putin could just as well assume that NATO would take the same stance with attacks on the Baltic states.

Additionally, if trump should regain the presidency in 2025, the NATO charter would be as worthless as the tits on a boar. The European members would not respond militarily if the US refuses to.
We have made it clear on how we’d respond to an attack on a NATO member.

We made it clear before Russia attacked Ukraine we wouldn’t respond militarily.


It’s as simple as that.
 
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Fertilizer is exempted.
Interesting. What was proposed in the podcast was that many countries were starting to complain about the inability to receive fertilizer from Russia. Brazil being one of them. Perhaps it is exempt, but it's still hard to ship?
 
You think Wesley Clark and David Patreus are dipshits?

Both have discounted the nuclear threat in their call for amped up weapons delivery and pressure from NATO/Europe.
Well, Clark did try to start WW3 a few decades ago.
His judgement isn’t unquestioned.

Nato supreme commander General Wesley Clark is not being allowed to fade away quietly. Days after the Clinton administration relieved him of his command two months early, Newsweek is reporting that the victor of Kosovo was blocked from sending paratroopers to Pristina airport to pre-empt an unexpected Russian advance.
Lieutenant-general Sir Michael Jackson overruled General Clark because the British commander did not want to spark a clash with the Russians.
"I'm not going to start Third World War for you," General Jackson told the US commander, according to Newsweek. In the hours that followed General Clark's order, both men sought political backing for their position, but only General Jackson received it.
News of the clash between the British and US commanders comes just days after the US snubbed General Clark by ordering him to step down next year, two months early, to make way for Air Force General Joseph Ralston, vice chairman of the joint chiefs of staff.
The move is widely seen as a rebuke for the man who led Nato to victory, but who clashed repeatedly with his superiors because he favoured more aggressive tactics.
 
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