This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...

[Tenacious E]

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So I wonder if Ukraine is going let Severodonesk get blown up as part of a battlefield. Meaning, luring large amounts of Russian forces into tight places where they can get blown up in multiple directions by javelins and such, even if it means those buildings will be lost with counterfire.

 

[timinatoria]

Crimea was either part of Russia or the USSR from 1783 to 1991. Most of the Crimeans have been gone for like 100 years. What is your stance on Native Americans in the US?

Edit: Here's an ethnic composition by year. There were more Russians than Crimean Tatars since at least the 1920's (2 to 1 Russians to Tatars in 1923). The data is a little sparse before that.

Ethnic Composition of Crimea

iccrimea.org

 

[Joes Place]

You can't compare anything that happened in the USSR to modern day Russia, since 1991. Georgia was over in two weeks with a peace agreement. Most of the people in Crimea are Russians, speak Russian and/or identify as Russians. It's a territorial dispute to be sure, but the opinions of the people that live there should be considered.

So, any locality in the US where most of the people speak Spanish or identify as Hispanic should be allowed to cede US territory and become "Mexican", Amirite?

 

[Joes Place]

Crimea was either part of Russia or the USSR from 1783 to 1991.

Whole slew of US Western states used to be "Mexico".

In fact, MOST of the colonized world (not Old Europe) used to be Dutch.
Do we need to give that all back to Netherlands?

 

[Joes Place]

To the comment about propaganda. It's true that both sides are releasing propaganda as to how successful they are. I'm trying to focus primarily on those who play it more factual like General Hertling's comments over time. In those estimates it's going to be very bloody without too much progress for the next few months as Russia is legitimately throwing everything they have at this war outside of their nuclear weapons. As long as Ukraine can keep supplying bodies to a military that is taking some heavy losses itself, and keep morale up, a turning point should come around August and September as they expect that Russia will have depleted most of their weaponry, and as long as Europe stays united and keeps supplying weapons to Ukraine, they'll then make a quick amount of progress towards retaking areas.

I think it'll still be hard to retake areas like Crimea (I don't know if they ever get that back) and the city areas where Russia may have embedded themselves in Donbas region, but those aeras can be retaken over time. The harder part is going to be in what Russia has done to the citizens of those areas over the past 7 years. How many are still ukranians who want to be Ukranians and how many Russians have they moved in to replace Ukranians that they've likely relocated.

You just kick all the Russians back to Siberia.

Just like Putin is doing with Ukrainians. If they want to be part of Ukraine, great, if not, enjoy your trip. That's how war and insubordination work.

 

[Joes Place]

I believe JFK planned to invade if the Russians didn't remove their missiles.

So, NO, JFK did NOT "shell Cuba into oblivion"

Thx for clarifying.

 

[Joes Place]

The sad thing is, due to our diminished attention spans and demand for instant gratification in America/Europe, this strategy has a decent chance of success:

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1940s Americans made sacrifices.

2020s Americans are total pussies.

 

[Joes Place]

Estonian Prime Minister explains the western cycle of appeasement with Russia.

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Don't give them shit.

If he's "humiliated", then he's humiliated. We should not care.
Once Putin learns this tactic doesn't work anymore, he's done.

 

[lucas80]

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Five large landing ships of the Russian Federation entered the Black Sea https://inforesist.org/v-chernoe-more-voshli-pyat-bolshih-desantnyh-korablej-rf/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=%5Btwitter%5D&utm_campaign=%5Brogue_corq%5D… #Ukraine #Russia

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I didn't fully read the Treaty of Montreaux, but how is Russia adding ships to the Black Sea in a time of war? Are they claiming these are not warships, or that they were home-ported there already? There have been rumors that the Russians will try to send some vessels via inland waterways, but that would be pretty tough technically considering it has never been done before.

 

[lucas80]

Whole slew of US Western states used to be "Mexico".

In fact, MOST of the colonized world (not Old Europe) used to be Dutch.
Do we need to give that all back to Netherlands?

F the Dutch!

 

[hwk23]

So, any locality in the US where most of the people speak Spanish or identify as Hispanic should be allowed to cede US territory and become "Mexican", Amirite?

No, not at all, obviously. Nobody alive got rug pulled on their original county. If the vast majority of residents would vote to join Mexico, then maybe, but still it’s so far removed in history, not like Crimea.

My whole point is to say this is not an imperial conquest but more a territorial dispute with no recourse for them. Crimea and the Donbas are unique and I doubt it goes beyond that, like so many claim.

I also think Biden could and should end this (without Ukraine necessarily ceding the Donbas).

 

[noleclone2]

Don't give them shit.

If he's "humiliated", then he's humiliated. We should not care.
Once Putin learns this tactic doesn't work anymore, he's done.

Yep. Makes no sense. He has humiliated himself to all in NATO and even perhaps worse to some of his allies. The ship left port in March.

Russian allies / China watching Russia last 100 days (some who are using the equipment they bought from Russia):

US/UK/Canada/North and East Europe last 100 days:

France and Germany

 

[DFSNOLE]

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

…..and now for something completely different….

Russia achieving success in Ukraine's Donbas - MoD - BBC News

On the war's 100th day, UK Defence Intelligence says Russia has the initiative in the country's east.

www.bbc.com

 

[noleclone2]

…..and now for something completely different….

Russia achieving success in Ukraine's Donbas - MoD - BBC News

On the war's 100th day, UK Defence Intelligence says Russia has the initiative in the country's east.

www.bbc.com

Funny - that article is not near as positive for Russia as headline states.


On the war's 100th day, the UK said Russia holds 90% of the Luhansk region - half of the Donbas - and is likely to complete control of it in two weeks.
It said these tactical successes had been achieved "at significant resource cost" with the concentration of forces.
But it said none of Russia's original war objectives had been achieved.”

-They had changed game plan to abandon getting Kyiv to Donbas for Mayday Parade (great band sidebar) and here we are a month after the supposed victory day trying to capture half of it with great cost and no ability to keep it long/


“Russian forces have generated and maintained momentum and currently appear to hold the initiative over Ukrainian opposition," the intelligence update said.
"Russia controls over 90% of Luhansk Oblast and is likely to complete control in the next two weeks."

“The UK intelligence assessment said Russia had not been able to "generate momentum or movement" on other fronts and is on the defensive in other parts of the conflict.
Achieving "any form of success" in the war will require "continued huge investment of manpower and equipment" and is likely to take a considerable amount of time, the assessment concluded.”

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

Funny - that article is not near as positive for Russia as headline states.


On the war's 100th day, the UK said Russia holds 90% of the Luhansk region - half of the Donbas - and is likely to complete control of it in two weeks.
It said these tactical successes had been achieved "at significant resource cost" with the concentration of forces.
But it said none of Russia's original war objectives had been achieved.”

-They had changed game plan to abandon getting Kyiv to Donbas for Mayday Parade (great band sidebar) and here we are a month after the supposed victory day trying to capture half of it with great cost and no ability to keep it long/


“Russian forces have generated and maintained momentum and currently appear to hold the initiative over Ukrainian opposition," the intelligence update said.
"Russia controls over 90% of Luhansk Oblast and is likely to complete control in the next two weeks."

“The UK intelligence assessment said Russia had not been able to "generate momentum or movement" on other fronts and is on the defensive in other parts of the conflict.
Achieving "any form of success" in the war will require "continued huge investment of manpower and equipment" and is likely to take a considerable amount of time, the assessment concluded.”

Totally agree.

Reading this thread you’d think the Russians aren’t getting anywhere though

 

[The Tradition]

Funny - that article is not near as positive for Russia as headline states.


On the war's 100th day, the UK said Russia holds 90% of the Luhansk region - half of the Donbas - and is likely to complete control of it in two weeks.
It said these tactical successes had been achieved "at significant resource cost" with the concentration of forces.
But it said none of Russia's original war objectives had been achieved.”

-They had changed game plan to abandon getting Kyiv to Donbas for Mayday Parade (great band sidebar) and here we are a month after the supposed victory day trying to capture half of it with great cost and no ability to keep it long/


“Russian forces have generated and maintained momentum and currently appear to hold the initiative over Ukrainian opposition," the intelligence update said.
"Russia controls over 90% of Luhansk Oblast and is likely to complete control in the next two weeks."

“The UK intelligence assessment said Russia had not been able to "generate momentum or movement" on other fronts and is on the defensive in other parts of the conflict.
Achieving "any form of success" in the war will require "continued huge investment of manpower and equipment" and is likely to take a considerable amount of time, the assessment concluded.”

Russia will achieve their objectives in the east, but they're unlikely to hold their gains if Ukraine can maintain its resolve.

 

[noleclone2]

Russia will achieve their objectives in the east, but they're unlikely to hold their gains if Ukraine can maintain its resolve.

That is the whole rub. You have Putin propagandists and pay-rolled folks desperately trying to use the current gains as a means to negotiate peace and let Russia have their land bridge. Problem is they put all their chips on table and can’t hold it for long.

It may have worked had Russia not been so absolutely brutal on targeting civilians infrastructure and war crimes. I doubt it does now. No way Ukraine is calling a truce and giving Russia land. Not now.
A drawn out war is likely the worst outcome for Russia. The sanctions are impacting them, their military is in shambles and won’t be easily made whole, and everyday, Putin is closer to death and/or a coup.

 

[Obviously Oblivious]

Russia produces nearly 25% of the world's natural gas. Ukraine produces .6%. It hardly makes a dent, still not worth it just for the Donbas but this is speculation on each of our parts. I think it's at best a secondary consideration.

IIRC it’s not about current production levels rather proven untapped reserves.

 

[pjhawk]

Stories like this get me, you're just going along, just trying to live your life, run a business, and some psycho nut gets control of the country next to you. It's infuriating. All of these peoples lives being destroyed or flat-out ended because of one nut's megalomania.

A Farmer Holds On, a Fraying Lifeline for a Besieged Corner of Ukraine

Most farmers have fled the Russian advance, but Oleksandr Chaplik has stayed, despite the lethal risks and a lack of workers, water and power.

www.nytimes.com

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

Russia will achieve their objectives in the east, but they're unlikely to hold their gains if Ukraine can maintain its resolve.

If this goes on into next year Ukraines resolve isn’t going to be the problem…..

 

[h-hawk]

bI didn't fully read the Treaty of Montreaux, but how is Russia adding ships to the Black Sea in a time of war? Are they claiming these are not warships, or that they were home-ported there already? There have been rumors that the Russians will try to send some vessels via inland waterways, but that would be pretty tough technically considering it has never been done before.

Wonder if they came down from the Sea of Azore as I think you are correct about no more military traffic through the Dardanelles. My optimistic theory is that maybe they are being sent there in case they have to supply or transport their army our of Crimea. Ukraine will have to take out that bridge connecting Crimea to Russia if they become strong enough to reclaim the Crinea.
With Odessa being protected by anti ship missiles now and with Russia's weakening I don't see these as an invasion force.

 

[h-hawk]

 

[CarolinaHawkeye]

Has russia called on the warrior poet society yet?

 

[THE_DEVIL]

Has russia called on the warrior poet society yet?

I found this statement that he has released

 

[h-hawk]

So I wonder if Ukraine is going let Severodonesk get blown up as part of a battlefield. Meaning, luring large amounts of Russian forces into tight places where they can get blown up in multiple directions by javelins and such, even if it means those buildings will be lost with counterfire.

Russia razes whole cities with artillery fire anyway. This is a clever attempt to take away their strength by staying close to the Russian lines-this may actually save some of the city! (I hope.)

 

[h-hawk]

This has probably been stated before but if Germany and France supported Ukraine like the US, UK and Poland, to mention the big 3, this war would be over a lot faster than it is going to be. France's and Germany's indifference is costing lives in Ukraine.

 

[h-hawk]

More detail on the trap.

 

[seminole97]

I didn't fully read the Treaty of Montreaux, but how is Russia adding ships to the Black Sea in a time of war? Are they claiming these are not warships, or that they were home-ported there already? There have been rumors that the Russians will try to send some vessels via inland waterways, but that would be pretty tough technically considering it has never been done before.

The way the translation of that page reads to me is that they have four of those vessels in the Black Sea fleet, two of which are undergoing repairs. A fifth, from the Baltic Fleet, is also in the bay for repairs.
It didn’t read to me as though those five vessels just traversed the Dardanelles.

 

[Joes Place]

My whole point is to say this is not an imperial conquest but more a territorial dispute

Uh, no

It's an imperial conquest. That's why Putin tried to take Kiev, spud.

EDIT: AND sent "assassination teams" to take out/kill Ukraine's president.

 

[hwk23]

This has probably been stated before but if Germany and France supported Ukraine like the US, UK and Poland, to mention the big 3, this war would be over a lot faster than it is going to be. France's and Germany's indifference is costing lives in Ukraine.

Biden ending this now would save a lot of lives.

 

[notlongago]

Biden ending this now would save a lot lives.

You make Joe sound rationale....thats a trick.

 

[Joes Place]

Biden Putin ending this now would save a lot of lives.

Yep.
Just.Go.Home.

 

[h-hawk]

 

[noleclone2]

You make Joe sound rationale....thats a trick.

 

[h-hawk]

"The Ukrainian operational command "Nord 'claims the shooting down of another Russian helicopter in #Donbas . From the video it is not possible to tell which model it is." #Donbass #UkraineRussianWar

 

[h-hawk]

#Donezk #Donetsk was also shot at today. Russian media immediately blamed the HIMARS. #Ukraine #UkraineKrieg

 

[hwk23]

It's an imperial conquest. That's why Putin tried to take Kiev, spud.

EDIT: AND sent "assassination teams" to take out/kill Ukraine's president.

Kiev was an extension of the negotiations for the Russians. It was meant to intimidate the Ukrainian government and to divert Ukrainian forces. Why do you think they were trying to negotiate in the first week or so?

The current war is not about territory. That’s secondary. It’s about the West not having a military presence in Ukraine. Russia does not want the US to have too much influence in the area. Georgia and Ukraine are red lines for any Russia leader, per Chomsky, especially Ukraine.

The US Ukraine joint partnership in September was crossing a line for them, too much influence on politicians and military involvement, right on their doorstep.

 

[Joes Place]

Kiev was an extension of the negotiations for the Russians. It was meant to intimidate the Ukrainian government and to divert Ukrainian forces. Why do you think they were trying to negotiate in the first week or so?

"Negotiate" what?

"What's mine is mine and what's yours is negotiable"?

Go Home, Russian Troll.

 

[Joes Place]

It’s about the West not having a military presence in Ukraine.

NATO already borders Russia.

This is, again, not at all about NATO, it's about Putin.