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B1G WBB general discussion

The turnaround at Illinois is amazing. Greene looked like a good hire on paper. Did not expect this big of jump so quickly. Normally a rebuild of a down program takes a little time.
She is an excellent coach for sure, but the transfer portal era sure makes a huge difference. Two players followed her from Dayton and another came from NC State. Add them to two fine returning players in Bostic and McKenzie, and you have an instant contender.
 
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Add to it, Greene doesn't have to be loyal to the current players that haven't produced like she would with the players she recruited.
 
OSU's poor rebounding performance vs Iowa last night suggests that maybe OSU is not built for elite success this year, at least not elite NCAA tournament success. OSU is 154th in defensive rebounding rate, and 229th in offensive rebounding rate. While lots of WBB teams make a Final Four or Elite Eight with being a poor rebounding team on one end of the court, they usually make up for it by being much better in rebounding on the other end of the court. It's really hard to advance to a Final 4/Elite 8 being a poor rebounding team on both ends of the court. Since 2010, no team below 130 in rebounding on both ends of the court has advanced to the Elite Eight, and no team below 90 in rebounding on both ends of the court has advanced to a Final Four. Even when Jacy Sheldon returns, not sure her return will help the team markedly improve in rebounding.
 
OSU's poor rebounding performance vs Iowa last night suggests that maybe OSU is not built for elite success this year, at least not elite NCAA tournament success. OSU is 154th in defensive rebounding rate, and 229th in offensive rebounding rate. While lots of WBB teams make a Final Four or Elite Eight with being a poor rebounding team on one end of the court, they usually make up for it by being much better in rebounding on the other end of the court. It's really hard to advance to a Final 4/Elite 8 being a poor rebounding team on both ends of the court. Since 2010, no team below 130 in rebounding on both ends of the court has advanced to the Elite Eight, and no team below 90 in rebounding on both ends of the court has advanced to a Final Four. Even when Jacy Sheldon returns, not sure her return will help the team markedly improve in rebounding.
One thought on rebounding: I'm not sure how important offensive rebounding is for teams like Iowa and Ohio State that shoot the ball really well. Obviously more offensive rebounds are good, but the difference between a very good offensive rebounding team like Stanford (14.3) and Ohio State and Iowa (11.0 and 9.1 respectively) really isn't that large.

I do think that defensive rebounding is vital to help close out stops, which is why it's good that Iowa has improved significantly in that area. That almost certainly will be a major weakness for Ohio State come tournament time.

Plus Stuelke should really help both categories if she gets 20+ minutes per game like she has recently.
 
They have some tougher games coming up with 2 against Indiana and Maryland plus PSU and Michigan on the road.
 
OSU is all about the press and turning people over for easy baskets. One post I saw said 24% of their points came from that. They have been very good at it. Their interior defense in half court or on our fast breaks wasn’t very good against us.. Between Monica’s layups and our fast break layups from Clark passes exposed them at least last nite
 



Believe this is now 38-4 after the weekend. Quite a top 6, finally a small middle, and a large, bad bottom tier.
 
One thought on rebounding: I'm not sure how important offensive rebounding is for teams like Iowa and Ohio State that shoot the ball really well. Obviously more offensive rebounds are good, but the difference between a very good offensive rebounding team like Stanford (14.3) and Ohio State and Iowa (11.0 and 9.1 respectively) really isn't that large.

I do think that defensive rebounding is vital to help close out stops, which is why it's good that Iowa has improved significantly in that area. That almost certainly will be a major weakness for Ohio State come tournament time.

Plus Stuelke should really help both categories if she gets 20+ minutes per game like she has recently.

5.2 extra possessions is beyond large.
 
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Being a bit over halfway through conference play has me thinking about post season awards. Let's talk All-Freshman team.

Cotie McMahon of OSU was on a tear for a while, but defenses are starting to learn that she can't really shoot outside of 8 feet. Her numbers are taking a hit as OSU has had to rely on her being as much of a creator in their absence of Greene and Sheldon as opposed to just a play finisher. Meanwhile, Yarden Garzon of Indiana has quietly been leading the conference in 3P%, shooting 50% from deep on an astounding 5 attempts per game. Obviously it helps a ton when you have Mac Holmes inside attracting so much attention, but still, Garzon's numbers have been incredible. I'd say FOY is her award to lose at this point.

After McMahon and Garzon, there are three other spots on the All-Freshman team up for grabs. Early this season I thought the Gophers had a chance to land multiple players, especially since the media has touted that freshman class so highly. But they've only won one game since Christmas and have looked worse and worse throughout the season. Doesn't help that Braun's shooting numbers have taken a sharp nose dive. At this point I think it would be unjust to put multiple Gophers on the all freshman team.

My team right now would be as follows:
1. Yarden Garzon, Indiana (FOY)
2. Cotie McMahon, OSU
3. Hannah Stuelke, Iowa
4. Mara Braun, Minnesota
5. Kaylene Smikle, Rutgers

Other candidates:
-Serah Williams of Wisconsin averaging 12.8ppg on 54% shooting
-Shay Ciezki of PSU averaging 11.1ppg, shooting 40% from 3.
-One of the other Gophers?

All postseason awards -- but especially the all-freshman awards -- are always awkward because you have to weigh volume versus efficiency versus team results. Often the key freshmen on bad teams will have high volume but bad efficiency that isn't translating to wins (ex: the Gophers, Smikle, Williams, Ciezki). Then you have freshmen on good teams playing smaller roles but doing really well in those roles (ex: Stuelke). In conference play, for example, Stuelke is playing just 14.3mpg but averaging 9.2ppg and 5.8rbg in that limited time. In the Iowa WBB thread I posted about Stuelke's incredible stats per 40 minutes and how she is currently leading all "key rotation freshmen" in both points and rebounds per 40 minutes.
 
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Purdue with a sell-out for IU on Sunday. Purdue coach also calls IU best team she has coached against.

It's important to remember the context. She's trying to hype up her fans and increase the magnitude of a potential upset. She's not just going to say "they're good, but Iowa is as good or better."
 
It's important to remember the context. She's trying to hype up her fans and increase the magnitude of a potential upset. She's not just going to say "they're good, but Iowa is as good or better."
I won't be surprised if it is half Purdue and half Indiana fans making up the crowd. Fun atmosphere. Hope Purdue can pull off the upset.
 
Last year Purdue almost pulled off the upset. This year they’re better. But so is Indiana.
That was against the version of IU that was without Mac Holmes, which was even worse that the version of IU with a weakened Mac Holmes that we beat three times.

It's important to remember the context. She's trying to hype up her fans and increase the magnitude of a potential upset. She's not just going to say "they're good, but Iowa is as good or better."
TBH I'm comfortable saying that IU has been objectively better than us this year. Now that they actually have reliable 3 point shooting to go along with Holmes, their offense has been just as elite as ours. And their defense remains undoubtably better.
 
That was against the version of IU that was without Mac Holmes, which was even worse that the version of IU with a weakened Mac Holmes that we beat three times.


TBH I'm comfortable saying that IU has been objectively better than us this year. Now that they actually have reliable 3 point shooting to go along with Holmes, their offense has been just as elite as ours. And their defense remains undoubtably better.
Indiana very well might be better, but I want to see how the two games go first. We're a better team since conference play started with Hannah's emergence. Since Indiana got Berger back, their results are very similar to ours against Maryland, Michigan, and Ohio State.

I'm also curious if a triangle and two might slow Indiana down. Moore-McNeil isn't a three-point shooter. Berger hasn't been her whole career. If we play man on Garzon and Parrish does that neutralize Indiana's shooting?

Indiana also isn't very deep. Can Clark/Czinano get one of their big players in foul trouble?
 
Indiana very well might be better, but I want to see how the two games go first. We're a better team since conference play started with Hannah's emergence. Since Indiana got Berger back, their results are very similar to ours against Maryland, Michigan, and Ohio State.

I'm also curious if a triangle and two might slow Indiana down. Moore-McNeil isn't a three-point shooter. Berger hasn't been her whole career. If we play man on Garzon and Parrish does that neutralize Indiana's shooting?

Indiana also isn't very deep. Can Clark/Czinano get one of their big players in foul trouble?
For sure. While they've been better on average over the whole season, I definitely think we can beat them.

Re: the triangle and two. Yes we could scheme to take away their 3 point threats in this manner but I sadly have little faith that the "triangle" part of the triangle and two would be able to stop the Berger/Holmes connection. Yes, "3" is more than "2," but given how lethal Holmes is, I'd personally rather make their shooters try to beat us. The guards are good, but Holmes is the engine of the team. If I were the coach I'd throw the triangle at them for a few possessions in the second quarter just to see what they do with it, but otherwise take our chances with our 2-3 zone or a man defense that brings a double to Holmes on the catch. Just my two cents!

Re: Foul trouble. Sadly I think it's more likely that Holmes gets Czinano gets into foul trouble than the other way around. But I'd love to be wrong! Caitlin was able to draw fouls at will against Indiana last season, but they tended to put a different defender on her every few possessions so as to not get any one player in too much trouble. Curious if they'll do the same again. I don't think they have anyone quite as pesky as Cardano-Hillary.
 
IU with a 19-2 3rd quarter at PU, after only leading 31-26 at half. 50-28 going to the 4th at sold out Mackey Arena.
 
Indiana (14-1)
Iowa (12-2)
Maryland (12-3)
Ohio State (10-5)
Michigan (10-4)
MichiganWisconsin@ Michigan State@ Penn State@ Indiana
Purdue@ NebraskaIowa@ MichiganOhio State
@ Iowa@ Maryland@ Ohio StateMarylandRutgers
Indiana@ Wisconsin

Here is what the remaining schedule looks like for the Big Ten teams with 4 or less losses at this point in the season (2/10/23). And what our outlook looks like for us to repeat as Conference regular season champions.
 
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Indiana (13-1)
Iowa (11-2)
Maryland (11-3)
Ohio State (10-4)
Michigan (9-4)
@ Ohio StateRutgersIllinoisIndianaNebraska
MichiganWisconsin@ Michigan State@ Penn State@ Indiana
Purdue@ NebraskaIowa@ MichiganOhio State
@ Iowa@ Maryland@ Ohio StateMarylandRutgers
Indiana@ Wisconsin

Here is what the remaining schedule looks like for the Big Ten teams with 4 or less losses at this point in the season (2/10/23). And what our outlook looks like for us to repeat as Conference regular season champions.
I'm glad we get Nebraska at the beginning of that end stretch. If it were between Maryland and Indiana it would be a huge trap game. I don't think that game is anywhere close to a gimmie.

I'm sure the conference did this on purpose, but it really is incredible how stacked the back of everyone's schedule is this year. Plenty of big games left.
 
We would also need to win at Nebraska and Maryland which will be tall tasks. We have yet to win at Maryland since they have joined the Big Ten conference.
Maryland doesn't have a center that can counter Czinano like Indiana does. In fact in the last game against Maryland, Iowa's lobs to Czinano were more effective than usual. Certainly, after that game, Maryland's coaching staff will try to come up with better schemes against her the next time.
 
IU blows out OSU on the road 83-59. OSU missing their big girl. Mackenzie Holmes 33 on 15/18 from floor. Scalia 24 in her best game since coming over from the Gophers.
 
Nothing really surprising about this, but modern adjusted efficiency stats (Her Hoop Stats Off. Rating - HHS Def. Rating) confirm this is the best BIG in a long time. Two of the top seven rated teams since 2009-10 are this year’s IU and Iowa, with this year’s MI and MD also being top 18. This year’s IU is the best non-Maryland team since Maryland joined the league.
  1. 2019-20 Maryland 44.6
  2. 2015-16 Maryland 42.3
  3. 2016-17 Maryland 42.2
  4. 2020-21 Maryland 42.2
  5. 2022-23 Indiana 40.6
  6. 2014-15 Maryland 39.1
  7. 2022-23 Iowa 35.3
  8. 2017-18 OSU 33.0
  9. 2018-19 Iowa 33.9
  10. 2021-22 Maryland 32.7
17. 2022-23 Michigan 30.8
18. 2022-23 Maryland 30.2

Edit: The absence of pre-Maryland teams from the top 10 shows how Maryland raised the bar for the league, and forced teams to up their game to try to compete with Maryland.
 
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Single-Session B1G Tournament tickets are on sale. $14 a session - not bad.
$16 in fees per ticket per session added for a total of $30/ticket - not good.
 
Single-Session B1G Tournament tickets are on sale. $14 a session - not bad.
$16 in fees per ticket per session added for a total of $30/ticket - not good.
Having the fees be more than the ticket price is brutal. I went to the Final Four and National Championship last year and don't remember the fees being nearly that egregious.
 
Iowa women's home games are what, $12 a ticket? They should really just mark the single session ticket at $25 and slap a $5 fee on it. Nobody would complain about it then.
 
Nebraska is in deep trouble. They just lost at Minnesota 95 - 92. Sitting at 6-9, they will have to win out against Iowa, Illinois and Northwestern to not having a losing conference record. They are desperate to beat Iowa to have any traction towards the post season. If Iowa can get an early lead, I think they will panic and totally lose confidence.
 
Nebraska is in deep trouble. They just lost at Minnesota 95 - 92. Sitting at 6-9, they will have to win out against Iowa, Illinois and Northwestern to not having a losing conference record. They are desperate to beat Iowa to have any traction towards the post season. If Iowa can get an early lead, I think they will panic and totally lose confidence.
Nebraska is done. They play too carelessly.
 
Unlike Wisconsin and Rutgers, Nebraska still have something to play for. They would love to beat us, NCAA tournament bid. They have some very good wins showing ability. But some bad losses, who shows up
 
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Unlike Wisconsin and Rutgers, Nebraska still have something to play for. They would love to beat us, NCAA tournament bid. They have some very good wins showing ability. But some bad losses, who shows up
No doubt. It's a must-win for them if they want to make the tournament. Amy Williams announced this morning they've sold over 12,000 tickets-have been pumping this match-up for weeks.
 
With their win today, Indiana officially clinches at least a share of the Big Ten Regular Season Conference Title. It is their first regular season title in 40 years, the second regular season title overall for the program. Congrats to them! They are going to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.

Our Hawks will need to win out if we want to share it with them.
 
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