COVID-19 Thread

[rossel 33]

Fauci himself would not defend his remarks. He stated that he was mislead by assurance by China and the WHO that it could not spread human to human. Basically, Fauci bought the line of sh*t. He should have known better.

It's fair to criticize both CDC and WHO for being a little slow as things were getting started in China in Dec and early January, especially since China was suppressing info. But without information it is hard to be definitive about what to do. Trump had closed the U.S. CDC pandemic office in China months earlier in 2019.

China reported the first human to human transmission of covid on Jan 20th.

The first case in U.S. was on Jan 21st.

But by the end of January, Fauci and every other infectious disease expert were sounding alarms, and making recommendations.

 

[Kwoodhawk]

Agree. I would guess a lot of those under 60 had some sort of medical conditions that increased their likelihood of having a bad outcome. I have a feeling (although nobody will really tell us this for some reason) that Covid19 is not that dangerous for completely healthy people less than 60. For people 40-60 with underlying risk factors and those over 60 (most of which probably have risk factors as well), it is quite dangerous and deadly. Give us the DATA!!!

Here is some CDC data I posted awhile back. Don't know if you saw or not. Gives deaths for age groups, male, female, and all the states by the same.

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku/data

 

[Kwoodhawk]

Mom's basement..........after several months quarantine......

 

[Jackhawk87]

Here is some CDC data I posted awhile back. Don't know if you saw or not. Gives deaths for age groups, male, female, and all the states by the same.

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku/data

Yeah, I saw those. We have been going around and around for a month. I want more specific data on the 30-60 year olds. We know it is less harmful/deadly for those under 30 yo. It is very dangerous/deadly for those over 60 yo (probably less so in healthy 60-70 yo).

Of those that are in the 30-39, 40-49, 50-59 yo range that have had severe ICU illness or death, how many had underlying illnesses/risk factors.

If it isn’t very dangerous for those under 50 or 60 that are very healthy (no risk factors), they should be told this. Nobody is safe, but if they gave us the specific data, it would help us make informed decisions, and perhaps, form a better game plan for opening up the economy and help people get back to normal life where possible.

And if the average healthy 20 yo has an extremely low risk of significant morbidity and mortality, why are we telling them they can’t go to school, see their friends, date somebody, and go out and enjoy life (obviously being safe and not spreading it to the vulnerable).

If healthy 20-35 yo athletes have little to worry about if they get infected, why are we telling them they can’t play baseball, basketball, football, golf, etc?

We cannot avoid all risks in life. Let us know what our specific risks are and let that guide public and individual choices. Closing down almost everything for everybody regardless of their individual risk isn’t a very selective or smart way to go about it IMO - but it is, for the most part, what they have decided to do.

 

[scruffyhawk]

At least a month ago I got tired of following this thread so don't know what everyone's been talking about. However, I decided to post something that I looked at today.

Basically, I'm all about the DATA, I don't really listen much to doctors, health officials, mayors, governors, etc. --- they're about 10x smarter than me, but they tend to paint a worst-case scenario, I think that's how they're trained. However, DATA sometimes tells a different story.

I often check the website of the Colorado Dept. of Public Health for updates on cases, hospitalizations and deaths - it's the best state site I've seen, shows great graphs and DATA (https://covid19.colorado.gov/data/case-data). Today I ran the mortality numbers and here's what the DATA shows:

In Colorado there have been 1062 deaths from Covid. When looking at age group, here is the death count...
0-9 = 0
10-19 = 1
20-29 = 6
30-39 = 7
40-49 = 27
50-59 = 51
60-69 = 142
70-79 = 243
80+ = 585

Quick calculation shows that people 60 and older have accounted for 91% of the deaths. People 0-39 have accounted for 1%. Wow.

I also calculated that in the 20-29 range, apprx. 3000 people have tested positive, yet only 6 deaths (similar for 30-39). For the 60 and older, apprx. 35% who tested positive have died, and while that's not a good number, it can be viewed that 65% of these elderly people recover.

I also viewed the DATA for California, Washington state, Illinois and Pennsylvania - similar percentages. The missing DATA that I would really like to see is the factor of underlying/pre-existing health issues (e.g. did the 14 people under 40 who have died in Colorado have other health issues that contributed?).

Conclusion. First, a disclaimer...I am NOT, repeat NOT minimizing the seriousness of Covid - I sympathize for the people who have lost loved ones. However, the DATA unequivocally shows that Covid is reasonably dangerous for people over 60 (when the immune system is going down and health issues abound), but not much to be concerned about for people under 60.

The problem looking at only mortality is hospital beds/ventilator capacity is ignored. If 30 year olds require hospitalization but live them contracting covid is still a drag on the health care system. According to the Iowa Covid site we have 448 ICU beds and 707 ventilators total available. Without getting too far into the numbers we have 76-77% spare capacity. Total inpatient beds are 3620 with only 44.86% of spare capacity. There are 388 Covid hospitalized patients. 133 Covid patients in the ICU. 101 Covid Patients on ventilators.

So the real question is how full do you want to modulate the hospitals? Given the unequal distribution of resources geographically what percentage of capacity doesn't result in loss of life if you are close to capacity in one region and the outbreak there isn't slowing fast enough if things are closed back down? If our max capacity before people are denied life saving care is 4x (could be more or less depending on what is being managed for) where we are now with regard to mix of patient treatments how comfortable and empowering is not staying home going to feel then?

All I am attempting to refute is mortality is not the only statistic that matters. Mortality amongst age groups especially doesn't matter because other than telling those at high risk to distance as much as possible people of all age groups interact in an opened or semiopen economy. Are you going to tell the 55 year old junior high teacher they have to show up to teach a bunch of kids who you hope contact covid to help reach herd immunity?

The numbers and implications just are not neat and orderly in the real world as they might seem with aggregate statistics. The medical professionals being cautious and warning against opening up things too much or too quickly are not wrong. The balance is just flat out tricky and I do not envy any elected official trying to keep everyone happy and alive.

 

[scruffyhawk]

Yeah, I saw those. We have been going around and around for a month. I want more specific data on the 30-60 year olds. We know it is less harmful/deadly for those under 30 yo. It is very dangerous/deadly for those over 60 yo (probably less so in healthy 60-70 yo).

Of those that are in the 30-39, 40-49, 50-59 yo range that have had severe ICU illness or death, how many had underlying illnesses/risk factors.

If it isn’t very dangerous for those under 50 or 60 that are very healthy (no risk factors), they should be told this. Nobody is safe, but if they gave us the specific data, it would help us make informed decisions, and perhaps, form a better game plan for opening up the economy and help people get back to normal life where possible.

And if the average healthy 20 yo has an extremely low risk of significant morbidity and mortality, why are we telling them they can’t go to school, see their friends, date somebody, and go out and enjoy life (obviously being safe and not spreading it to the vulnerable).

If healthy 20-35 yo athletes have little to worry about if they get infected, why are we telling them they can’t play baseball, basketball, football, golf, etc?

We cannot avoid all risks in life. Let us know what our specific risks are and let that guide public and individual choices. Closing down almost everything for everybody regardless of their individual risk isn’t a very selective or smart way to go about it IMO - but it is, for the most part, what they have decided to do.

The professionals who do hair/nails, are servers/bartenders, personal trainers etc need to work to pay their own bills. If the hospitals are overwhelmed in a second wave how wonderful will it really feel to have gone to the gym and gotten a haircut before meeting friends for drinks with dinner?

Say a 30 year old server with covid just needs fluids but hospitals are overwhelmed with patients already so they pass of dehydration. Who should feel guilty? There are so many things that can be said are personal choice or individual risk but how far can those enjoying the amenities of an open economy turn their cheek?

Hopefully such things do not happen, but if they do we are about to find out how thick each of our skins are.

 

[Mendoza77]

The professionals who do hair/nails, are servers/bartenders, personal trainers etc need to work to pay their own bills. If the hospitals are overwhelmed in a second wave how wonderful will it really feel to have gone to the gym and gotten a haircut before meeting friends for drinks with dinner?

Say a 30 year old server with covid just needs fluids but hospitals are overwhelmed with patients already so they pass of dehydration. Who should feel guilty? There are so many things that can be said are personal choice or individual risk but how far can those enjoying the amenities of an open economy turn their cheek?

Hopefully such things do not happen, but if they do we are about to find out how thick each of our skins are.

Wow scruffy, worry much? Forget to take your meds for anxiety and paranoia?

 

[Mendoza77]

Since I've been out of the loop in this thread, was it discussed that there was a flu pandemic in 1957 (a new strain) that killed 1.1 million worldwide (almost 4x what Covid has done so far) and 116,000 in the U.S., and another flu pandemic in 1968 that killed 1 million worldwide, and 100,000 in the U.S. Does anyone know if all schools, universities, businesses, retail, etc. were shut down for months during those pandemics?

 

[Fluffles]

Since I've been out of the loop in this thread, was it discussed that there was a flu pandemic in 1957 (a new strain) that killed 1.1 million worldwide (almost 4x what Covid has done so far) and 116,000 in the U.S., and another flu pandemic in 1968 that killed 1 million worldwide, and 100,000 in the U.S. Does anyone know if all schools, universities, businesses, retail, etc. were shut down for months during those pandemics?

Not sure, but they were shutdown in 1918. I noticed you conveniently left that one out. We also had a vaccine right away in 1957 (before the pandemic even made it to the US) and partial immunity in 1968 as it was closely related to the 1957 pandemic. Also I should point out, nobody has immunity to Covid-19. Regardless, many states are reopening, and we will find out in real-time whether it was the right decision or not.

 

[rossel 33]

At least a month ago I got tired of following this thread so don't know what everyone's been talking about. However, I decided to post something that I looked at today.

Basically, I'm all about the DATA, I don't really listen much to doctors, health officials, mayors, governors, etc. --- they're about 10x smarter than me, but they tend to paint a worst-case scenario, I think that's how they're trained. However, DATA sometimes tells a different story.



Conclusion. First, a disclaimer...I am NOT, repeat NOT minimizing the seriousness of Covid - I sympathize for the people who have lost loved ones. However, the DATA unequivocally shows that Covid is reasonably dangerous for people over 60 (when the immune system is going down and health issues abound), but not much to be concerned about for people under 60.

There is more to the covid story than just deaths. Some of this has been pointed out by Kwood, scruffy and others.

1. Overwhelming the health care system - it's critical to
prevent that from happening.
2. Significant organ damage, without necessarily killing... e.g.
scarred lungs, stroke, amputation of extremity, etc
3. In kids, something called Pediatric Multisystem
Inflammatory Syndrome. This is something relatively
new, seen in young children. ~100 cases of it in NY,
and also seen in other countries and states. Very
serious, and thought to be related to covid, but
not well understood.

 

[scruffyhawk]

Wow scruffy, worry much? Forget to take your meds for anxiety and paranoia?

Just not afraid to dive into implications of what the real world application of numbers/data become. It can be sobering to look at multiple sides of some things! Often it feels more like a Rubix Cube vs rolling dice.

 

[Kwoodhawk]

Wow scruffy, worry much? Forget to take your meds for anxiety and paranoia?

I don't see where he worries or has anxiety or paranoia. He answered in an adult way to your post.

And you come back with a weak, smart mouth put down.??? Points for the smiley face though.

If you want to have an adult discussion do so. If you need to use juvenile put downs when someone replies to your posts, maybe you need to go back to not reading this thread. Your choice.

Post your good information. Join the discussion. Leave the lame comments to the kids on the board. It's not really that hard to do is it?

 

[Kwoodhawk]

Since I've been out of the loop in this thread, was it discussed that there was a flu pandemic in 1957 (a new strain) that killed 1.1 million worldwide (almost 4x what Covid has done so far) and 116,000 in the U.S., and another flu pandemic in 1968 that killed 1 million worldwide, and 100,000 in the U.S. Does anyone know if all schools, universities, businesses, retail, etc. were shut down for months during those pandemics?

There was an article posted about how the CDC comes up with their numbers for deaths with the flu and it was basically apples to oranges compared to how COVID-19 deaths are being counted.

CDC flu deaths a lot of guessing rather than a lot of counting.

https://blogs.scientificamerican.co...u-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/

 

[SPOONER]

The problem looking at only mortality is hospital beds/ventilator capacity is ignored. If 30 year olds require hospitalization but live them contracting covid is still a drag on the health care system. According to the Iowa Covid site we have 448 ICU beds and 707 ventilators total available. Without getting too far into the numbers we have 76-77% spare capacity. Total inpatient beds are 3620 with only 44.86% of spare capacity. There are 388 Covid hospitalized patients. 133 Covid patients in the ICU. 101 Covid Patients on ventilators.

So the real question is how full do you want to modulate the hospitals? Given the unequal distribution of resources geographically what percentage of capacity doesn't result in loss of life if you are close to capacity in one region and the outbreak there isn't slowing fast enough if things are closed back down? If our max capacity before people are denied life saving care is 4x (could be more or less depending on what is being managed for) where we are now with regard to mix of patient treatments how comfortable and empowering is not staying home going to feel then?

All I am attempting to refute is mortality is not the only statistic that matters. Mortality amongst age groups especially doesn't matter because other than telling those at high risk to distance as much as possible people of all age groups interact in an opened or semiopen economy. Are you going to tell the 55 year old junior high teacher they have to show up to teach a bunch of kids who you hope contact covid to help reach herd immunity?

The numbers and implications just are not neat and orderly in the real world as they might seem with aggregate statistics. The medical professionals being cautious and warning against opening up things too much or too quickly are not wrong. The balance is just flat out tricky and I do not envy any elected official trying to keep everyone happy and alive.

Hospitalized, ventilators, ICU and capacity of beds filled are all down from their highs and even at their highs, none came within the same galaxy of capacity. Iowa's high of hospitalized covid patients has been 417 and you're concerned there are only 3,620 more beds available?

 

[Gobblin]

FYI and FWIW, for those who may be interested, Pat Militechs’ Twitter is a hammer squarely driving nail after nail after nail.

 

[el dub]

Wow scruffy, worry much? Forget to take your meds for anxiety and paranoia?

I think scruff is right on.

We might be able to quit our anxiety when some of you folks start taking your psych meds.

It’s not our fault that you can’t see the president is mentally ill, but it is our problem.

 

[Mendoza77]

Not sure, but they were shutdown in 1918. I noticed you conveniently left that one out. We also had a vaccine right away in 1957 (before the pandemic even made it to the US) and partial immunity in 1968 as it was closely related to the 1957 pandemic. Also I should point out, nobody has immunity to Covid-19. Regardless, many states are reopening, and we will find out in real-time whether it was the right decision or not.

Ummm..."conveniently left out"? I don't understand the intent of your comment. I wasn't arguing anything, simply posting that last week I found out about these pandemic in '57 and '68 and wasn't sure if people knew, and what the reaction had been during those times. That's all. Chill.

Regarding those pandemics, in '57 if there was a vaccine before the virus made it to the U.S., I wonder why 100,000 people died. And your statement that no one has immunity to Covid....well, I think everyone already knows that (although relatively few people below age 40, even age 60, are dying, even without immunity).

 

[Mendoza77]

There is more to the covid story than just deaths. Some of this has been pointed out by Kwood, scruffy and others.

1. Overwhelming the health care system - it's critical to
prevent that from happening.
2. Significant organ damage, without necessarily killing... e.g.
scarred lungs, stroke, amputation of extremity, etc
3. In kids, something called Pediatric Multisystem
Inflammatory Syndrome. This is something relatively
new, seen in young children. ~100 cases of it in NY,
and also seen in other countries and states. Very
serious, and thought to be related to covid, but
not well understood.

Regarding #1, I haven't read where any place except New York City that hospitals are being overwhelmed, though that term is subjective. Also, all of the DATA shows that we're on the downhill side of infections, hospitalizations and deaths, and have also addressed shortcomings in hospitals, so pressures should be easing.

Regarding #2, I suspect (without DATA) that this damage is primarily in the older population (not making it acceptable, but it points to my prior argument that this is a health crisis for the elderly and doesn't warrant the extreme measures taken by everyone, particularly shutdowns).

Regarding #3, I just read about this last night (https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52648557). Prof. Russell Viner, president of the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health, states that this syndrome is "exceptionally rare" and shouldn't prevent parents from allowing their children to exit lockdown.

 

[Mendoza77]

I don't see where he worries or has anxiety or paranoia. He answered in an adult way to your post.

And you come back with a weak, smart mouth put down.??? Points for the smiley face though.

If you want to have an adult discussion do so. If you need to use juvenile put downs when someone replies to your posts, maybe you need to go back to not reading this thread. Your choice.

Post your good information. Join the discussion. Leave the lame comments to the kids on the board. It's not really that hard to do is it?

I apologize for posting an attempt at light-hearted humor, in the midst of all of this doom and gloom. I didn't realize I'm so childish. Please forgive me.

 

[Mendoza77]

There was an article posted about how the CDC comes up with their numbers for deaths with the flu and it was basically apples to oranges compared to how COVID-19 deaths are being counted.

CDC flu deaths a lot of guessing rather than a lot of counting.

https://blogs.scientificamerican.co...u-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/

Is that only true for recent yearly estimates, or also true for events that occurred 60 years ago? I would think that after 60 years the numbers would be confirmed and reasonably accurate.

 

[Spaceman Spifff]

Deaths in the US and Worldwide continue to fall:
Worldwide
48,905 April 12-18
43,588 April 19-25
-10.87%

43,588 April 19-25
38,182 April 26-May 2
-12.40%

38,182 April 26-May 2
35,533 May 3-9
-6.94%

20,146 May 3-6 (partial week)
17,546 May 10-13 (partial week)
-12.91%

USA
15,269 April 12-18
14,925 April 19-25
-2.25%

14,925 April 19-25
13,188 April 26-May 2
-11.64%

13,188 April 26-May 2
12,593 May 3-9
-4.51%

7,355 May 3-6 (partial week)
5,160 May 10-13 (partial week)
-29.84%

 

[Mendoza77]

I think scruff is right on.

We might be able to quit our anxiety when some of you folks start taking your psych meds.

It’s not our fault that you can’t see the president is mentally ill, but it is our problem.

Dub, I definitely agree with you on the bolded part (keep in mind that I'm a bizarre mix of liberal, conservative, Libertarian and neo-Marxist).

 

[Jackhawk87]

I don’t think anybody is suggesting that the vulnerable should rush out to restaurants or other crowded locations. Nobody is recommending that young people don’t wear masks or visit grandma after seeing their friends. I think there are very few even advocating a return to normal.

Selectively allowing the least vulnerable to resume a safe return to relatively normal life is all that I see most reasonable people recommending. They won’t allow the PGA and baseball to resume for goodness sakes. Distance both in hotels and on the course/dugout - this is not going to overwhelm the medical system. Fans are a no (at least large groups and none that are with significant risk factors).

Even when things are opened up, I would hope that the most vulnerable and those worried about their risks if they get infected are smart enough to resume social distancing/sheltering. Those in government seem to think they know best and that they need to tell all people what they can or cannot do (because we are all too stupid to make our own choices). Give us the data and their educated recommendations. Exclude events/outings that are obviously a bad idea (5 hour indoor concert with people packed in, etc).

 

[scruffyhawk]

Hospitalized, ventilators, ICU and capacity of beds filled are all down from their highs and even at their highs, none came within the same galaxy of capacity. Iowa's high of hospitalized covid patients has been 417 and you're concerned there are only 3,620 more beds available?

With the exponential nature of growth of Covid at any time there is no moment to take our eyes off the ball. Now that there is widespread geographic infection to begin with hotspots populating faster than we saw in the 1st wave warrants concern. Note I didn't say we needed more beds or ventilators etc. It is quite documented the second wave can dwarf the 1st if things are opened too far or too fast. All I am pointing out is the infrastructure wall and an example or two of why we do not want to push right to its 'full capacity.'

We dodged a fatal bullet but they are still flying. The good job we are taking comfort having done has only put us on the downward slope of a curve and not given us cover or a guarantee we will not find ourselves in the middle of a second outbreak. We just need to be cognitive the collective exhale of the moment doesn't result in an abandonment of the basic precautions we know work. I don't think anyone wants to walk back things being open once they are. Being aware some will abuse the privilege and attempting to not fall into that temptation too often or wholeheartedly is not more than being pragmatic.

 

[SPOONER]

With the exponential nature of growth of Covid at any time there is no moment to take our eyes off the ball. Now that there is widespread geographic infection to begin with hotspots populating faster than we saw in the 1st wave warrants concern. Note I didn't say we needed more beds or ventilators etc. It is quite documented the second wave can dwarf the 1st if things are opened too far or too fast. All I am pointing out is the infrastructure wall and an example or two of why we do not want to push right to its 'full capacity.'

We dodged a fatal bullet but they are still flying. The good job we are taking comfort having done has only put us on the downward slope of a curve and not given us cover or a guarantee we will not find ourselves in the middle of a second outbreak. We just need to be cognitive the collective exhale of the moment doesn't result in an abandonment of the basic precautions we know work. I don't think anyone wants to walk back things being open once they are. Being aware some will abuse the privilege and attempting to not fall into that temptation too often or wholeheartedly is not more than being pragmatic.

I think we are in general agreement. I just don't think Iowa's experience/conditions are strong supporting evidence of your/our thoughts.

 

[scruffyhawk]

I think we are in general agreement. I just don't think Iowa's experience/conditions are strong supporting evidence of your/our thoughts.

I would also say we are in general agreement. The lag when someone who gets Covid showing symptoms to when they (even under expedited testing) receive a positive result and contact tracing starts is just a problem there is no solution for. There are so many stories of funerals or innocent gatherings that have resulted in mini outbreaks in other states that a Mason City or a Fort Dodge could quickly find themselves overwhelmed while other regions see no blip in patients. The rural areas also being more elderly compared to urban areas also could cause 'abnormal patterns' from what we have experienced to date.

The butterfly effect of any one of us going and doing something within our routines could have resulted in someone contracting Covid and we would never know. Maybe it was as simple as being polite and saying after you to a fellow grocery shopper who then comes in contact with a superspreader instead of us. We all just need to be aware for the next however many weeks/months/years til an effective vaccine becomes widely used that risk to ourselves and to others as a result of our random choices is prevalent.

There is an outbreak at a nursing home I can see from my deck and I found on the state website last night about it. It really hit home how nothing visibly changed even though it's front sidewalk is a major bike trail and across the street is an elementary school. Heck for years I have been frustrated with parents parking in my neighborhood to pick up their kids in front of this nursing home instead of in the school parking lot. I would bet money those parents would have been just as oblivious as I was had school been resumed.

Data is great, but it isn't real time. The governor has outperformed many so far but a good track record could just make her the great Casey at bat. I don't really have personal concerns for myself as I am young enough with no underlying risk factors but I am making an effort to face how my actions with no fear may affect others adversely. Civic duty or a moral consciousness depending on the moment if you will.

 

[Jackhawk87]

For those wanting information about how viruses spread in an airborne fashion and how to avoid getting the infection, here is an excellent article. You won’t get it from walking past an asymptotic person. Sitting close to them at a restaurant for an hour - maybe. Singing in a choir or yelling/cheering with a Covid + person in a small enclosed space for an hour or two - you are probably going to get it. The more informed we are, the better decisions we can make.

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

Contacting an infected surface without washing your hands and then touching your face is a different story. Don’t do that.

 

[scruffyhawk]

Regarding #1, I haven't read where any place except New York City that hospitals are being overwhelmed, though that term is subjective. Also, all of the DATA shows that we're on the downhill side of infections, hospitalizations and deaths, and have also addressed shortcomings in hospitals, so pressures should be easing.

Regarding #2, I suspect (without DATA) that this damage is primarily in the older population (not making it acceptable, but it points to my prior argument that this is a health crisis for the elderly and doesn't warrant the extreme measures taken by everyone, particularly shutdowns).

Regarding #3, I just read about this last night (https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52648557). Prof. Russell Viner, president of the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health, states that this syndrome is "exceptionally rare" and shouldn't prevent parents from allowing their children to exit lockdown.

#1 If you look at how the outbreak early was so distorted to New York and the surrounding states that region going down is making it look like the country is going down even though many regions are trending up or holding steady. The data has so many nuggets and lag in it one has to be careful drawing meaningful conclusions. The thought process really needs to be we are in range/spiking/subsiding vs we are out of the woods.

#2 I just disagree but neither are going to change each other's minds.

 

[GogglesPaizano]

It's fair to criticize both CDC and WHO ...

But by the end of January, Fauci and every other infectious disease expert were sounding alarms, and making recommendations.

Alarms really? Google the Jan 21st Catsimatidis interview Fauci gave, not to mention his curious comments regarding Tinder hookups in March. Even he has been all over the map at times.

 

[Kwoodhawk]

I apologize for posting an attempt at light-hearted humor, in the midst of all of this doom and gloom. I didn't realize I'm so childish. Please forgive me.

If it was a serious attempt at light-hearted humor then I misunderstood your words and I apologize. .

Others have made the same sort of comments and meant it. Hard to tell the difference sometimes.

Doom and gloom? Is that more humor?

No one said you were childish. No one.

 

[rossel 33]

Regarding #1, I haven't read where any place except New York City that hospitals are being overwhelmed, though that term is subjective. Also, all of the DATA shows that we're on the downhill side of infections, hospitalizations and deaths, and have also addressed shortcomings in hospitals, so pressures should be easing.

Regarding #2, I suspect (without DATA) that this damage is primarily in the older population (not making it acceptable, but it points to my prior argument that this is a health crisis for the elderly and doesn't warrant the extreme measures taken by everyone, particularly shutdowns).

Regarding #3, I just read about this last night (https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52648557). Prof. Russell Viner, president of the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health, states that this syndrome is "exceptionally rare" and shouldn't prevent parents from allowing their children to exit lockdown.

------
I agree with some of your points, but would say, while total U.S. numbers are dropping (cases and deaths), much of that is due to the 800 lb gorilla (NY) getting better.

There are still a number of states that are seeing upticks in covid - Wisc, Iowa, Minn, Nebr, KS, Texas and Alabama. It's not one size fits all.

Regarding #1, while NYC was certainly the hardest hit, hospitals were overwhelmed in other places including Detroit and New Orleans.

Detroit:
https://nypost.com/2020/04/13/bodies-piled-in-closet-slumped-in-chair-at-detroit-hospital/

https://abcnews.go.com/US/detroit-h...gan-coronavirus-cases-surge/story?id=69940149

NJ (Newark)

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...n-in-tears-after-ems-comes-to-its-rescue.html

New Orleans:

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-04-02/in-louisiana-coronavirus-death-toll-mounts

<<New Orleans hospitals were converting operating rooms and other units into COVID-19 treatment areas this week, searching for additional staff, ventilators and dialysis machines for the coronavirus patients, whose kidneys often fail. National Guard troops were racing to build a temporary 3,000-bed hospital in the city’s convention center.>>

Connecticut:

https://ctmirror.org/2020/04/07/yal...d-19-impact-other-hospitals-less-forthcoming/

<<
As of Tuesday morning, the Yale New Haven Health hospitals at the epicenter of Connecticut’s coronavirus pandemic have seen 53 COVID-19 fatalities. Sixty staff members at Greenwich Hospital have tested positive for the disease, and more than half the beds at that hospital are now filled with COVID patients, hospital officials said in a video conference call Tuesday.

Critical N95 respirator masks are now being used up at a rate of more than 3,000 per day within the three hospitals – twice the “burn rate” of a week earlier – and many of those masks are now undergoing sterilization for re-use.

Dr. Tom Balcezak, chief clinical officer for Yale-New Haven Health, said the system currently has “adequate supplies” of personal protective equipment (PPE) but is continuing to search for N95 masks. He said those types of masks used to cost 50 cents each but are now selling for $6 apiece “if you’re able to find them.”>>

Regarding #3, it's true that the total number of children getting PMSIS is small, they're only beginning to learn about this, and apparently it can hit the child weeks after they have covid.

 

[rossel 33]

Alarms really? Google the Jan 21st Catsimatidis interview Fauci gave, not to mention his curious comments regarding Tinder hookups in March. Even he has been all over the map at times.

People really try to vilify Fauci need to understand that the U.S. got covid case #1 on Jan 20th. If you lift a Fauci quote from late January and leave out other things he said, it paints a distorted picture.

On January 26th, Fauci answered a question "should the American people be scared?"

<<Fauci said “isn’t something the American people need to worry about or be frightened about” because, at the time, it was centered in China and the U.S. could screen travelers from that nation.

But Fauci also twice described the virus as “an evolving situation,” and said, “Every day, we have to look at it very carefully.”>>

Fauci didn't have a crystal ball, but his answer indicated it's "an evolving situation."

I have no idea what was said about Tinder hookups.

 

[1032004]

Since I've been out of the loop in this thread, was it discussed that there was a flu pandemic in 1957 (a new strain) that killed 1.1 million worldwide (almost 4x what Covid has done so far) and 116,000 in the U.S., and another flu pandemic in 1968 that killed 1 million worldwide, and 100,000 in the U.S. Does anyone know if all schools, universities, businesses, retail, etc. were shut down for months during those pandemics?

Best I could tell, in 1957 and 1968, no -

https://reason.com/2020/03/31/how-will-coronavirus-pandemic-deaths-compare-to-the-1957-flu-pandemic/

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...dstock-take-place-middle-pandemic/3094481001/

Who knows where this one will end up, but almost a certainty it will be higher than those, and that’s with all the closures.

Here’s an interesting article (from 2011) talking about how the nationwide closing of schools in Mexico likely helped during the 2009 swine flu -
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/flu-pandemic-study-supports-social-distancing

 

[el dub]

As far as Fouchi goes... Pick apart any person’s public speeches concerning the future and you will find instances where that person was wrong. That’s normal.

Intelligent people tend to watch situations unfold and then revise opinions and appropriate actions.

 

[dhm az]

https://www.theblaze.com/news/san-d...vid-deaths-are-pure-solely-coronavirus-deaths

 

[1032004]

https://www.theblaze.com/news/san-d...vid-deaths-are-pure-solely-coronavirus-deaths

The guy who said that should probably be fired IMO.

I bet there are some deaths being counted as COVID that may not necessarily be, but to discount all “underlying conditions” is ridiculous, especially when it seems some of the hardest hit “underlying conditions” aren’t all-that uncommon, such as obesity and high blood pressure.

 

[dhm az]

As far as Fouchi goes... Pick apart any person’s public speeches concerning the future and you will find instances where that person was wrong. That’s normal.

Intelligent people tend to watch situations unfold and then revise opinions and appropriate actions.

So what do you do?

 

[dhm az]

Here you go dub, is this what you're looking for https://www.theblaze.com/news/oregon-business-owner-who-defiantly-reopened-says-child-protect
ive-services-questioned-her-family

 

[24 so far]

The guy who said that should probably be fired IMO.

I bet there are some deaths being counted as COVID that may not necessarily be, but to discount all “underlying conditions” is ridiculous, especially when it seems some of the hardest hit “underlying conditions” aren’t all-that uncommon, such as obesity and high blood pressure.

The world will never know the accurate count of COVID-19 related deaths. Ever. Pick someone's best guess and roll with it, cause that's all you're ever going to get.

 

[grapplefann]

The world will never know the accurate count of COVID-19 related deaths. Ever. Pick someone's best guess and roll with it, cause that's all you're ever going to get.

Maybe not exactly, but you can compare the number of deaths in a normal April and May of 2017, 2018, 2019, etc., to the number of deaths in this April and May. Then ask, "What accounts for the difference?"
We see that some people are trying to minimize the deaths to cover for poor leadership at the top. Don't believe it.