The current GPS model has it hitting me as a Cat 3 on Thursday. The Euro has it going into the Big Bend Saturday morning as a strong TS or weak Cat 1. The Canadian model has it hitting us as a TS. Boo GPS!!
Hurricane season has arrived....
- Thread starter The Tradition
- Start date
FSU grad Dr Levi Cowan
The seedling of a tropical cyclone is likely taking shape in the western Caribbean. Low-level rotation is aggregating off the coast of Nicaragua/Honduras as an upper-level trough to the north aids large-scale deep convection (thunderstorms) in the area. Odds favor a tropical depression or storm forming east of the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday or Tuesday. The storm would likely be named #Helene.
This initial location would favor a storm track northward into the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico as a longwave trough digs into the south-central US. Eastern #Mexico, western #Cuba, and the #CaymanIslands could see impacts on Tuesday/Wednesday, with heavy rains already spreading into the Caymans today.
The eastern gulf coast of the southeastern U.S. should be preparing for impacts from a possible hurricane spreading northward during Wednesday-Friday this week. Environmental conditions will be imperfect but will likely still favor intensification. The eventual track of this expected storm will not become clear until it actually forms in a day or two, but by that time, there may only be a couple days of time to prepare.
I'll probably begin video updates on this system Monday morning.
The seedling of a tropical cyclone is likely taking shape in the western Caribbean. Low-level rotation is aggregating off the coast of Nicaragua/Honduras as an upper-level trough to the north aids large-scale deep convection (thunderstorms) in the area. Odds favor a tropical depression or storm forming east of the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday or Tuesday. The storm would likely be named #Helene.
This initial location would favor a storm track northward into the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico as a longwave trough digs into the south-central US. Eastern #Mexico, western #Cuba, and the #CaymanIslands could see impacts on Tuesday/Wednesday, with heavy rains already spreading into the Caymans today.
The eastern gulf coast of the southeastern U.S. should be preparing for impacts from a possible hurricane spreading northward during Wednesday-Friday this week. Environmental conditions will be imperfect but will likely still favor intensification. The eventual track of this expected storm will not become clear until it actually forms in a day or two, but by that time, there may only be a couple days of time to prepare.
I'll probably begin video updates on this system Monday morning.
I can appreciate this thread and my fellow Floridians that pay attention to this shit. That being said, I literally don’t look at the weather at all. In construction you could call off almost every day based on the weather predictions. It’s gonna rain most days in the summer, but we got shit to install so don’t care.
Forget the rain. People get concerned because of possible wind and surge damage.
Tropical Thoughts:
1. Ok, here's what I'm thinking. As you can see, our "Stalking Turtle" is taking shape. 🐢 (Ultimately it will pick up forward speed later this week)
2. Chances are increasing this makes landfall in the panhandle or "Big Bend" late on Thursday or Friday as a hurricane.
3. Ive already received a TON of questions about folks with kids at FSU or FAMU. You'll want to keep a close eye on this one but there is no imminent threat. I've already told my son at Florida State University there's a chance he might want to come home midweek. Just a chance. If it's Cat 1, probably not, but some models (including the GFS) are stronger. This is NOT set in stone, but I wanted to give parents a heads up in case it plays out that way.
4. Is it still possible for changes? You betcha. This is my thinking right now. It absolutely can change tomorrow or Tuesday. And if it DOES change, it would probably be more East than West.
5. If the models are correct, the Bay Area would be on the fringe of the heavy stuff. Specifics at tbis point would be premature. We can tackle that tomorrow and Tuesday.
6. Intensity is always the big question mark. Models range from a strong tropical storm to a midsized hurricane. There will be significant shear in the Northern Gulf later this week. Hopefully, that caps intensity a bit.
7. Rule #7. If you live in the panhandle, you know the drill. Make your preps and keep a close eye on changes. If you live in the Bay Area, you know the drill. Have a plan ready to go if needed. IF the ensembles are reasonably accurate, impacts on our area would be limited. A shift East would obviously increase those impacts.
That's all I got right now. I suspect you'll be hearing a bit more from me this week. As always, we're here for you 24/7. And I mean that...TWENTY FOUR/SEVEN. Sleep is overrated during hurricane season.
I’m as cool as a cucumber. I live my life a 1/4 mile at a time.
I"m not sure I understand the benefits of being a homeowner in the south. I'm sure you can all give me plenty of reasons. I can't imagine cleaning up a Derecho once or twice per year.
Going to be an interesting week. At the airport to fly out for work and back Wednesday. Coming back on Wednesday may just be too grab the family and evacuate.
Dr. Phillips was correct in saying any shift would be to the east. This morning it has moved away from us. The biggest variation between the models right now is the strength. GFS is the only one predicting a major hurricane.
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for further development of this system. A tropical
depression or storm is likely to form within the next day or two as
the system moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where additional development
is expected.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
rains over portions of Central America during the next several days.
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this
system, as watches or warnings will likely be required later
this morning for portions of these areas. Later this week, the
system is forecast to move generally northward across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the northern and northeastern
Gulf Coast should also closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for further development of this system. A tropical
depression or storm is likely to form within the next day or two as
the system moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where additional development
is expected.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
rains over portions of Central America during the next several days.
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this
system, as watches or warnings will likely be required later
this morning for portions of these areas. Later this week, the
system is forecast to move generally northward across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the northern and northeastern
Gulf Coast should also closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Reed Timmer
LIVE EMERGENCY UPDATE ON HURRICANE HELENE HEADING TO FLORIDA THURSDAY!
LIVE EMERGENCY UPDATE ON HURRICANE HELENE HEADING TO FLORIDA THURSDAY!
First video from FSU grad Dr Levi Cowan
[Monday] New Storm in Caribbean Likely to Become Significant Hurricane in Eastern Gulf of Mexico
[Monday] New Storm in Caribbean Likely to Become Significant Hurricane in Eastern Gulf of Mexico
The ECMWF has Helene coming in south of Tallahassee Thursday after as a TS (982 mb)
The GFS has it about the same area Thursday evening as a Cat 3 (950 mb)
The CMC into Apalachicola Thursday as a Cat 1 (975 mb)
The GFS has it about the same area Thursday evening as a Cat 3 (950 mb)
The CMC into Apalachicola Thursday as a Cat 1 (975 mb)
Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines chief meteorologist……so far, the position is in line with the models
Visible satellite loop through the day shows the disturbance's circulation center clearly, & despite developing more east in the Carib, it appears to be moving WNW in line with the models. This makes sense when you look at the position of the blocking high to the north steering it westward. But as the high moves east, it will help steer the system north and into the Gulf.
Some southwesterly shear over the disturbance's northwest half is keeping thunderstorms from wrapping all the way around for the moment. Over time the shear will abate allowing for symmetrization. As these processes take place, it appears the stage will be set for some significant strengthening.
Visible satellite loop through the day shows the disturbance's circulation center clearly, & despite developing more east in the Carib, it appears to be moving WNW in line with the models. This makes sense when you look at the position of the blocking high to the north steering it westward. But as the high moves east, it will help steer the system north and into the Gulf.
Some southwesterly shear over the disturbance's northwest half is keeping thunderstorms from wrapping all the way around for the moment. Over time the shear will abate allowing for symmetrization. As these processes take place, it appears the stage will be set for some significant strengthening.
The sparsely-populated Big Bend area has been a favorite landfall spot the past few years. Hopefully they'll take another one for the team.
