There is data out there that the mitigation efforts are effective, but it's more of turning a dial rather than an on/off switch. Look at the curves back in March 2020-May 2020 when the mitigation efforts were at their strictest.
The problem now is that the pandemic has changed with delta and especially with omicron, and the messaging and/or mitigation efforts have not kept up. Omicron is extremely contagious, transmitted efficiently via the airborne route, and the vaccines are not as protective against infection for this variant. This means, in order for mitigation efforts to be effective, we need higher quality masks and that the risks of things like indoor dining and indoor sporting events had increased significantly, even if you are > 6 feet. Good ventilation and high quality masks are the keys right now, and that message has been lost.