major winter storm on Xmas eve?
- Thread starter QChawks
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- qcpizzasucks
- Sep 13, 2002
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10 to 12 for OP's mom
Tradition Manor is forecast to see a light freeze on Friday and Saturday nights. High temps won't break 50 on Saturday and Sunday! Slight warm up for Monday.
- Sep 13, 2002
- 98,648
- 206,471
- 113
It was December 15 last year that Iowa had the derecho and a record tornado outbreak.
Maybe this is becoming the new norm for December.😖
Is this cumulative from 3 to 4 HORTers?
We don't have that detailed of info this far. Just taking a stab based on latest model output. The progression of this thing will tell the story. If it ends up further west E IA gets railed. Moves a little quicker and we could get 3 inches.
Right now it seems the 5-10 range is about as accurate as any. The Euro model has E IA around 8, with the heaviest out towards Chicagoland
I've perused several different sources, and right now the consensus is no matter what part of the midwest you're talking about - nobody is predicting "you will get X inches here". They're staying away from amounts at the moment because forecast models are all over the place as to where this storm will bomb out.
"The hype" about this storm is for the most part, everybody agrees this storm will indeed bomb out - they just don't know where. AND the one thing they are certain of it is will be horribly windy and cold for just about everybody once the backside reaches pretty much everywhere in the midwest.
I've seen the 5-10" forecast for eastern Iowa - but from what I have gathered, that is the ensemble blended forecast (sort of a blend of all the models molded into one single prediction). What I saw also stresses - this type of forecast STILL might move west, east, etc.
There's a whole lot of throwing darts with a forecast like that. Call it a "reasonable expectation given we're this far out".
In short, none of the experts really has a firm grasp on predictions yet - but all are stating given the winds and cold, snow amounts really aren't the story here. The wind and cold is the bigger issue - meaning "X" might get "only" 4 inches of snow - but back that with a day or two of 50 mph gusts blowing it around, then add in the cold along with the expected massive traveling planned for the holiday weekend...
They don't want a lot of people stranded out there freezing to death. That's the reason they're crying wolf. This type of panhandle hook storm, fusing of the bitter cold front coming from the north - THAT is where their concern this far out is coming from. And if this thing bombs out with a low pressure center path running say from NE Missouri through NW Illinois - eastern Iowa is in for a major shitstorm come Thursday through Saturday.
"The hype" about this storm is for the most part, everybody agrees this storm will indeed bomb out - they just don't know where. AND the one thing they are certain of it is will be horribly windy and cold for just about everybody once the backside reaches pretty much everywhere in the midwest.
I've seen the 5-10" forecast for eastern Iowa - but from what I have gathered, that is the ensemble blended forecast (sort of a blend of all the models molded into one single prediction). What I saw also stresses - this type of forecast STILL might move west, east, etc.
There's a whole lot of throwing darts with a forecast like that. Call it a "reasonable expectation given we're this far out".
In short, none of the experts really has a firm grasp on predictions yet - but all are stating given the winds and cold, snow amounts really aren't the story here. The wind and cold is the bigger issue - meaning "X" might get "only" 4 inches of snow - but back that with a day or two of 50 mph gusts blowing it around, then add in the cold along with the expected massive traveling planned for the holiday weekend...
They don't want a lot of people stranded out there freezing to death. That's the reason they're crying wolf. This type of panhandle hook storm, fusing of the bitter cold front coming from the north - THAT is where their concern this far out is coming from. And if this thing bombs out with a low pressure center path running say from NE Missouri through NW Illinois - eastern Iowa is in for a major shitstorm come Thursday through Saturday.
Make sure to bundle up! Cold weather is nothing to take lightly
Yeah, in general can't really predict exactly where strongest bands of snow will setup over 72hrs out. Winter precip in general is tough forcacsting.
But yeah, it's obvious we'll have some giant pressure drops, strong winds, and frigid air.
Dangerous whiteout conditions can occur with only a few inches of snow, so the threshold for dangerous travel on this one is really low. Not to mention the time of year and the number of people potentially impacted.
Yeah, they do seem to lean on the ensembles quite a bit anymore it seems like. Weighted average sort of best guess is as good as you can do. I haven't got into habit of following all the different ensembles. Mostly stick to the Euro/GFS . . . and then NAM when it comes into play. At 48hrs the HRRR is really handy, although I don't know its track record on winter. The geeks know all the biases the different models contain though, that goes into their forecasts.
fwiw... latest GFS spitting out around 11in of snow in E IA while the ECMWF(Euro) has 8. So not too far off. Notable is that this is a big system... not going to be a narrow little band of snow... this is going to cut through a large swath of the upper midwest. Helps their concern.
I don’t think it is old. That has increased from earlier today. Man this could be a huge storm for us.
Welp NWS QC is starting to post blizzard warning reminders. Can’t remember the last time we had nasty winter conditions like this. Sure big snow storms, or bitter cold and wind. But it’s been awhile for the 1-2 punch.
Hahaha I was beat! But seems like they’re subtly dropping hints without saying it yet.
This really could be the type of storm kids today will remember when they're older - kinda like the 1973 April blizzard is for many of us. That being said, my hunch is it ain't going to be THAT bad - but you never truly know. The early warnings thing though - that is kinda ominous. Like, the NWS et al is seeing the model data and thinking "holy shit". So, get the word out and if we're gonna be wrong, let it be wrong on over-estimating rather than the opposite.
There are some pretty big storms many of us remember here in Iowa. The April 1973 blizzard, the 1978 (?) storm (believe the QC got nearly 20 inches). The old timers up in Guttenberg used to tell stories about the Armistice Day Blizzard in I believe 1940 - which IIRC when it blew on shore in Washington took out the Tacoma Narrows bridge before it hit the midwest.
This one, kinda hoping it doesn't clobber us and jogs east. Cold and wind I can handle. Add in a foot of snow though...
There are some pretty big storms many of us remember here in Iowa. The April 1973 blizzard, the 1978 (?) storm (believe the QC got nearly 20 inches). The old timers up in Guttenberg used to tell stories about the Armistice Day Blizzard in I believe 1940 - which IIRC when it blew on shore in Washington took out the Tacoma Narrows bridge before it hit the midwest.
This one, kinda hoping it doesn't clobber us and jogs east. Cold and wind I can handle. Add in a foot of snow though...
Relax Nancy.
I walked to school uphill (both ways) in feet of snow at much colder temps.
My parents talk about the 78 storm from time to time.
The worst I remember was going to Ohio to visit my family on Christmas break in 02. We walked out of Christmas Eve Mass to snowfall and had 9 inches on the ground Christmas morning. A little further south in the Dayton area where my grandparents lived they had over 20 inches. I remember reading the Dayton Daily News and the explanation for it not being a blizzard was a lack of sustained winds.
Snow probably won't be insane. Winds could create some crazy drifts.
But a legit 10 inches with 50mph gusts could shut stuff down a couple days.
I was a senior at Purdue in the 1978 storm and it was a monster. However, we also had a terrible storm in 1977, which, imo, was worse. We went about 40 days where the temperature never got above freezing, from about Jan. 1st to Feb. 10th. In fact, there were some days the high temperature was still below zero. Just a brutal winter, and most of my classes were about a mile's walk from my dorm. My mustache and beard often froze together during that walk from the moisture in my breath I exhaled.
Spring break in south Florida that spring was a godsend, but then, we had to go back.😖
I'm guessing your memory must be about as long as your appendage. Either that or you're a victim of alzheimers.
Google it, Jean-yus.
F Ohio. The only state that deserves that kind of a storm more is Missourah.
Latest GFS/NAM runs are more progressive and have the system blasting off quicker. Only 3-4 inches in Eastern Iowa. Does show us getting clipped by wrap-around snow that adds another 3-4 inches Sunday(ish), however.
Only one run, though. Lets see if the trend holds.
Only one run, though. Lets see if the trend holds.
TwisterData.com | NAM SURFACE SNOWIN Forecast
www.twisterdata.com
This ish better not fade. I didn’t move back from Florida for just cold temps. I want a ****ing blizzard and I want it now!
@torbee you ready to come ride and see if you really don't mind winter and cold?
Yep, appears the latest model data pushed it further east compared to yesterday, lowering snow amounts in Iowa. They actually sort of began mentioning amounts this time around though, but also stressed not to put too much into those.
It's almost like they're shrugging their shoulders still with this storm - like they know what's going to happen, but locking it down to what actually happens in specific spots is still pretty much useless.
Two days out yet, might not get a firm grasp on any specifics locally for another 24-36 hours unfortunately.
Crazy...
It's almost like they're shrugging their shoulders still with this storm - like they know what's going to happen, but locking it down to what actually happens in specific spots is still pretty much useless.
Two days out yet, might not get a firm grasp on any specifics locally for another 24-36 hours unfortunately.
Crazy...
Apologies for the interruption but must give this man his due via thread title. RIP
Wrong on both accounts. Struggled to go right until senior year in college. And I’ve never even implied that I’m in support of drug use, much less unbridled drug use.
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