major winter storm on Xmas eve?
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Model runs changed overnight run to yesterday afternoon run. That's how it goes sometimes. Also keep in mind, as mentioned forecasters tend to have their favorite models to base their forecast. Models can vary widely...
It'd not be all that surprising to see this afternoon's models revert back west or even go further east than this morning.
- Sep 13, 2002
- 98,636
- 206,433
- 113
The derecho was august of 2020.
What a maroon.
Officials have determined at least 43 tornadoes resulted from the Dec. 15 derecho that swept across Iowa — more than seven times the total number of tornadoes to take shape in December in Iowa since 1950, and the most tornadoes in any single day in the state's historical record.
As data from last week's storm — the first December derecho in U.S. history — continues to be processed, its historic nature becomes clearer. The storm will go down as the worst late-fall or winter thunderstorm in Iowa's recorded history, said Mike Fowle, the science and operations officer at the National Weather Service in Des Moines. It could also rank as one of the worst severe thunderstorms ever recorded in Iowa, regardless of season, he said.
Iowa's second derecho in two years spawned 43 tornadoes. Here's how the storm compared to others
At least 92 tornadoes, including 43 in Iowa, were confirmed after last week's derecho, making it one of the most historic thunderstorms in the state.
www.desmoinesregister.com
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Yeah-they are both right.
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/s...oric-december-serial-derecho-2021/8995299002/
Iowa's second derecho in two years spawned 43 tornadoes. Here's how the storm compared to others
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/s...oric-december-serial-derecho-2021/8995299002/
That dude dumb. Dumb, dumb, dumb.
There has only been one derecho in the history of mankind!
- Sep 13, 2002
- 98,636
- 206,433
- 113
Wrong about politics. Wrong about the weather. I'd say stay in your lane, but guessing you are more of a drainage ditch kinda person.
Who could forget the infamous feces weighing scene. . .
Latest watch wording for E IA says 4 - 6 inches
Can I bring my "billy club" if go riding with you? And can I call your car a Paddy Wagon?
- Sep 13, 2002
- 98,636
- 206,433
- 113
Go to Peru. It's summer there. Bring me back a pan flute and large amounts of cocaine!
QC weather bubble always delivers
Tots and pears Central Iowa
Tots and pears Central Iowa
Latest GFS/NAM runs kept us at the 3 inch mark or so across E IA. Higher totals north.
ECMWF (Euro model) paints a snowier picture per the last complete run (6z) With approx 5-8 inches across E IA.
ECMWF (Euro model) paints a snowier picture per the last complete run (6z) With approx 5-8 inches across E IA.
Goddammit I love when someone tries to put a poster in their place and ends up looking like a ****ing idiot.
A
anon_b29nm7v7dwp6r
Guest
Latest Euro (12z) maintaining roughly 5-8in
High of 36° with a low of 18° here in the western panhandle of Florida on Saturday.
DVN area forecast discussion excerpt:
Bulk of accumulating snowfall will look to occur Thu into the 1st
half of Thu night now with current timing trends, but there will be
some initial elevated WAA type snows moving acrs the northwest
third to half of the DVN CWA along organizing LLVL inverted trof
complex as Wed night progresses, with a couple of inches by dawn Thu
possible northwest of Cedar Rapids. A conundrum here though, as the
Wed night winds look rather light and the incoming isallobaric
arctic front surge high winds and intensifying snowfall right now
does not look to occur until later Thu morning, thus the watch start
time may be a bit early. But will leave it for now and start times
will get better defined with eventual watch upgrades. As for snow
amounts, still very uncertain with arctic airmass high SLR support
being cancelled out by high winds shattering the dendrites into
fine snow. This along with the more progressive and drier system
indicated by the latest ensembles add to the uncertainty. Last
night`s GEFS 12 inch mean snowfall for our CWA has lowered to around
4 inches on this early monring`s run. Several other mean ensembles
have trended toward 3-6 inches now as opposed to the crazy high
amounts a night ago. With this, should not be even advertising exact
amounts just yet and will pull from the watch headline for now.
Bulk of accumulating snowfall will look to occur Thu into the 1st
half of Thu night now with current timing trends, but there will be
some initial elevated WAA type snows moving acrs the northwest
third to half of the DVN CWA along organizing LLVL inverted trof
complex as Wed night progresses, with a couple of inches by dawn Thu
possible northwest of Cedar Rapids. A conundrum here though, as the
Wed night winds look rather light and the incoming isallobaric
arctic front surge high winds and intensifying snowfall right now
does not look to occur until later Thu morning, thus the watch start
time may be a bit early. But will leave it for now and start times
will get better defined with eventual watch upgrades. As for snow
amounts, still very uncertain with arctic airmass high SLR support
being cancelled out by high winds shattering the dendrites into
fine snow. This along with the more progressive and drier system
indicated by the latest ensembles add to the uncertainty. Last
night`s GEFS 12 inch mean snowfall for our CWA has lowered to around
4 inches on this early monring`s run. Several other mean ensembles
have trended toward 3-6 inches now as opposed to the crazy high
amounts a night ago. With this, should not be even advertising exact
amounts just yet and will pull from the watch headline for now.
Trends the last 24-48 have been for a drier more progressive system. Wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of 3 inch totals.
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