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Opening Line: Iowa State -5 (Now -7)

Aug 16, 2010
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Opening line just got released. Iowa State -5. And within an hour it jumped to -7.

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Pretty generous to the Hawks.
I suppose Iowa's blowout win and isu's early struggles in their games earlier this week are contributing.
Agree that Hawks getting 10 seems like a better bet, although I still wouldn't take it.
 
No way that line gets close to 10. Kenpom has it at 4.5-5 which is why Vegas came out at 5. Your smart money will not sway too far from Kenpom, at +7, they will consider the Hawks a great value.
 
Dayton was the only team to really soundly beat Iowa this year. They used their superior athleticism to great advantage.
What does isu possess over the Hawks? Athleticism. By a wide margin.
 
Dayton was the only team to really soundly beat Iowa this year. They used their superior athleticism to great advantage.
What does isu possess over the Hawks? Athleticism. By a wide margin.
Yeah soundly beat them, were behind with 50 seconds left and got a lot of questionable calls down the stretch. Also, the Hawks missed multiple 1-1's late and struggled at the FT line. But I guess that is soundly beating someone.
 
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Iowa struggled a lot with Dayton in the first half. To their credit they kept it close and had a chance late.
It was dayton's athleticism to control a large portion of the game.
'clones are superior to dayton athletically.

Hawks have a chance. Absolutely.
To win, though, I think it takes on fire shooting from outside for Iowa and the 'clones being off. Something like Iowa hitting close to 55% from the floor and 'clones 40% or under. Will need to keep the rebound margin to under -10.
I'd give Iowa a 25% chance at the upset.
 
Iowa struggled a lot with Dayton in the first half. To their credit they kept it close and had a chance late.
It was dayton's athleticism to control a large portion of the game.
'clones are superior to dayton athletically.

Hawks have a chance. Absolutely.
To win, though, I think it takes on fire shooting from outside for Iowa and the 'clones being off. Something like Iowa hitting close to 55% from the floor and 'clones 40% or under. Will need to keep the rebound margin to under -10.
I'd give Iowa a 25% chance at the upset.
Add a period in there and I think you're dead on! (.25%)
 
Iowa struggled a lot with Dayton in the first half. To their credit they kept it close and had a chance late.
It was dayton's athleticism to control a large portion of the game.
'clones are superior to dayton athletically.

Hawks have a chance. Absolutely.
To win, though, I think it takes on fire shooting from outside for Iowa and the 'clones being off. Something like Iowa hitting close to 55% from the floor and 'clones 40% or under. Will need to keep the rebound margin to under -10.
I'd give Iowa a 25% chance at the upset.

Seems like you have a very loose grasp on reality.

To say Dayton beat Iowa soundly is clearly false and to say they won on "athleticism" is far fetched at best.

It was a close game that could have gone either way, Dayton used good ball movement to get open shots in the corners against the zone.

ISU is not any more athletic than most good teams. They're just good players.
 
I'm OK with my worldview Rock.
If you don't think dayton had better athletes on the floor, then we disagree on the use of that term.
The score of that game reflected Iowa making a late run. dayton was in control for the most part.
We'll see how it plays out tonight.
 
Seems like you have a very loose grasp on reality.

To say Dayton beat Iowa soundly is clearly false and to say they won on "athleticism" is far fetched at best.

It was a close game that could have gone either way, Dayton used good ball movement to get open shots in the corners against the zone.

ISU is not any more athletic than most good teams. They're just good players.
The Dayton game was literally 5 on 8. One of the worst officiated games I have seen. I kept thinking we were playing Izzo with Valentine blowing the whistle.
 
According to sportsbookspy, spread is now 7.5, with 70% of spread bets going to ISU and 99% of Moneyline (Straight up) bets going on ISU.

interesting to have that high of a moneyline % with only a 7.5pt spread.
 
Moneyline is deceiving... you have to know the payouts to see what people are putting as win% for each team. Perhaps the payout is quite generous compared to the projected win% for ISU and it is a positive EV play.
 
Betting on sporting events involving 18-21 year old kids can be frustrating at best. Having said that, if I was a betting man, I would be tempted to lay the points.
 
I'm OK with my worldview Rock.
If you don't think dayton had better athletes on the floor, then we disagree on the use of that term.
The score of that game reflected Iowa making a late run. dayton was in control for the most part.
We'll see how it plays out tonight.

There's a difference between saying Dayton had more athleticism and saying they controlled the game because of it.

They clearly did not control the game if Iowa had a lead late.

FSU and Marquete had better athletes too. Athleticism and basketball ability are two separate things, sometimes related sometimes not.

ISU, IMO, is a skilled team more than anything. As far as major conference teams go they're athleticism is pretty standard. McKay is really the only uber athletic guy.
 
Iowa struggled a lot with Dayton in the first half. To their credit they kept it close and had a chance late.
It was dayton's athleticism to control a large portion of the game.
'clones are superior to dayton athletically.

Hawks have a chance. Absolutely.
To win, though, I think it takes on fire shooting from outside for Iowa and the 'clones being off. Something like Iowa hitting close to 55% from the floor and 'clones 40% or under. Will need to keep the rebound margin to under -10.
I'd give Iowa a 25% chance at the upset.

Fran's sit with 2 fouls rule dominated Iowa in the first half of that game; that rule is one of my primary fears every game we play.
 
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