Tom Brands addresses the rumors: Kemerer at 174 is far from done deal; Here is a PROJECTED LINEUP

[Huck]

Damn, and here I don't even set my high school lineup to the local paper because I want everyone knowing each spot is "open".
And yes, I know it's a bit different as I'm not making six figures at the U of I but come on....the writing has been on the wall for quite some time on what is happening. I'm not Brands but here's the plan right now guys...this is what we're looking to do at this point.
Ready???

Plan
157 Young
165 Da Bull
174 Da Dawg
Sincerely,
Coach Brands

 

[DonHawkeye]

So, in conclusion, the HawkCentral projected Iowa line up is this:

125 Lee
133 DeSanto
141 Murin
149 Lugo
157 Young
165 Marinelli
174 KemDog
184 Wilke
197 Warner
HWT Stoll

I see a 135-140 points here. Hope it is enough to win.

 

[Grip220]

Amine is a hammer and in the same tier as ZV and Hall. I see Kem as a solid 3rd, 4th at 74 just because Amine losses focus in a match or two.

Amine was very good my point was and is Hall is beatable more so then Nolf no question and I think we see Kemdawg raise the bar at 74

 

[24 so far]

Maybe Tom didn't want to say 74 because he might grow to 84

Is Big Sam's spot in the lineup in jeapordy? To be continued..........

 

[artradley]

This...what they see is lack of planning I see as holes. Limiting factors vs coaching shortfall.

Also, it makes me laugh to think that some don't believe a bunch of wrestling guys (the coaches) do not sit in the office and kick around their best lineup obsessively...like we do on here. So much to do with coaching and managing. Most bosses that hire folks will give the official line that the job is open for qualified folks to compete...may the best person win. However, most have a good idea of who that person is going to be...they just can't say it out loud to the folks in their workplace...it shows favoritism and hurts morale.

Well, this is significantly different than, say, telling us who is going to get the 141 spot between the three guys who are there. Sure, in that case you say -- and probably truthfully -- you'll see who emerges. This is a case of one guy going up two weight classes and another guy going down two weight classes. There is no way that in June the decision hasn't been made. Because neither wrestler can make that move without spending the entire off season preparing for it.

So we're left with two choices. Either Dawg is hitting the weight room hard (pictures of him indicate this is the case) with a 100%-all-in-no-turning-back attitude; while Kaleb is using the same attitude to prepare himself for 157. Or they're both making an "effort" to get there, holding out the possibility that it doesn't work out in which case they change their minds and revert back. IMO the second option is not an option at all. At the risk of sounding like Yoda, there is no "try", there is "do" or "not do."

If it's the first option -- which I suspect and certainly hope is the case, then there's no reason not to let the fans know the plan. And as a PR person (which is absolutely part of the coach's job) he should be anxious to let the fans know that the team they follow so fervently has got a plan.

 

[wasdt21]

now tell me what my job is

 

[rustynailhawk]

He looks totally different, he has Sammy brooks guns there

 

[IowaFan1414]

now tell me what my job is

LOL!!!

 

[IAChief32]

Well, this is significantly different than, say, telling us who is going to get the 141 spot between the three guys who are there. Sure, in that case you say -- and probably truthfully -- you'll see who emerges. This is a case of one guy going up two weight classes and another guy going down two weight classes. There is no way that in June the decision hasn't been made. Because neither wrestler can make that move without spending the entire off season preparing for it.

So we're left with two choices. Either Dawg is hitting the weight room hard (pictures of him indicate this is the case) with a 100%-all-in-no-turning-back attitude; while Kaleb is using the same attitude to prepare himself for 157. Or they're both making an "effort" to get there, holding out the possibility that it doesn't work out in which case they change their minds and revert back. IMO the second option is not an option at all. At the risk of sounding like Yoda, there is no "try", there is "do" or "not do."

If it's the first option -- which I suspect and certainly hope is the case, then there's no reason not to let the fans know the plan. And as a PR person (which is absolutely part of the coach's job) he should be anxious to let the fans know that the team they follow so fervently has got a plan.

They've done everything except slap you upside the head with their "plan." Hints, leaks, winks and a nod on Twitter. Now...Tom may not be the best coach in the NCAA, that's debatable. However, his teams have finished top 5 every year for the past ten years. Nobody else can say that. While that is not the titles we want, it indicates Tom always has some sort of plan. Just because he does not clear it with fans does not mean it is not so. What coach in any sport speaks definitively five months before their season starts?

 

[artradley]

now tell me what my job is

I don't know...burger flipper?

 

[artradley]

They've done everything except slap you upside the head with their "plan." Hints, leaks, winks and a nod on Twitter. Now...Tom may not be the best coach in the NCAA, that's debatable. However, his teams have finished top 5 every year for the past ten years. Nobody else can say that. While that is not the titles we want, it indicates Tom always has some sort of plan. Just because he does not clear it with fans does not mean it is not so. What coach in any sport speaks definitively five months before their season starts?

You seem to suggest that Dawg and Young are "all-in" on the switch, and Brands is just being coy. Is that where you are on this?

 

[BanjoSaysWoof]

The article talks like Nolf is a tougher out than Mark Hall. Hall is my number one ranked college wrestler,with Spencer Lee 2,Nolf 3, and Nickel 4.

Jason Nolf is the best wrestler in college right now.

 

[artradley]

Jason Nolf is the best wrestler in college right now.

I'll bet every Pokemon I've ever captured that you're wrong...

 

[hogghawk]

Again, Most posters don’t expect him to Tell everyone’s plan to wait for the following year. It’s when he gives a vague answer where it makes it appear that he’s gonna let it play out. That, combined with the history, has people concerned. No one expects him to give all the answers right now. you some sort of tough guy with the name-calling? Usually it’s you and your “friends “online who attack everyone who questions anything in regards to coach brands for the wrestling program I’m just pointing out the flaws in your argument. Sorry if I hurt your vagina by comparing your way of arguing to my kids way of arguing. It seemed fitting. Don’t respond to me if you don’t want to but if you’re gonna call me a name be prepared to call to my face.

Who does it have concerned? Opposing fans or the coaches of those teams? You are a Tom brands troll and always have been. Your points are off base and you try to work your agenda into all the discussions. You seem to be a better fit over in the central part of the state. You and dresser deserve each other.

 

[Jackhawk87]

I'll bet every Pokemon I've ever captured that you're wrong...

So I assume you have never captured a Pokemon. Who do you have as better? Spencer, Fix, and Bo are the only ones in contention IMO.

 

[artradley]

So I assume you have never captured a Pokemon. Who do you have as better? Spencer, Fix, and Bo are the only ones in contention IMO.

The Pokemon reference was a clue.

 

[SPOONER]

Well, this is significantly different than, say, telling us who is going to get the 141 spot between the three guys who are there. Sure, in that case you say -- and probably truthfully -- you'll see who emerges. This is a case of one guy going up two weight classes and another guy going down two weight classes. There is no way that in June the decision hasn't been made. Because neither wrestler can make that move without spending the entire off season preparing for it.

So we're left with two choices. Either Dawg is hitting the weight room hard (pictures of him indicate this is the case) with a 100%-all-in-no-turning-back attitude; while Kaleb is using the same attitude to prepare himself for 157. Or they're both making an "effort" to get there, holding out the possibility that it doesn't work out in which case they change their minds and revert back. IMO the second option is not an option at all. At the risk of sounding like Yoda, there is no "try", there is "do" or "not do."

If it's the first option -- which I suspect and certainly hope is the case, then there's no reason not to let the fans know the plan. And as a PR person (which is absolutely part of the coach's job) he should be anxious to let the fans know that the team they follow so fervently has got a plan.

We have known Tom Brands for like 25 years. It is comical that you suddenly expect a different person.

 

[PapaBearSLIM]

*Devil's advocate
If Iowa's starting QB decided this spring to play receiver instead would the coaches not speak to that when interviewed? If the star cornerback was moving to offense would coaches not acknowledge it when asked?

And Young, who was a 165 last season, wrestling 74kg (162.8lbs) last week was not "wrestling down". Most in that bracket will be wrestling 165 next season... the Bull also wrestled 74kg last month. So that is not one of the tea leaves of the plan in place.

I'm in the camp that believes it will go Young/Bull/Kem but doesn't get why Brands wouldn't give a definitive answer when asked. If there is a competitive advantage for speaking around it, fine... but I don't see it.

 

[MSU158]

Nolf was the most clear favorite at his weight the past 2 years and went 1-2 with a 4x Finalist that is now #2 on the ladder at 74kg. When it comes to folkstyle, he truly is one of the best there has ever been. His pace is ridiculous, he can score from any position and he is not rideable.

Spencer may prove to be at his level, but he needs to essentially go undefeated the next 3 years with a bonus rate of 90% just to be even with him.

Nolf is currently 86-3(one of those I personally do not count, but I am not the Official NCAA Scorekeeper).

34-2 as a RSFR bonusing 89%
27-0 as a RSSO bonusing 93%
25-1(the loss I really don't consider) as a RSJR bonusing 81% while still wrestling on a blown out knee
Barring a freak of nature he goes 30ish-0 with 90%+ bonus.

So that would put him around 116-3 with over 100 bonus wins.

Lee went 22-2 as a TF bonusing 92%

So, if you compared freshman versions, I would put Lee ahead. But, current versions? Nolf is the man!

 

[SPOONER]

Nolf was the most clear favorite at his weight the past 2 years and went 1-2 with a 4x Finalist that is now #2 on the ladder at 74kg. When it comes to folkstyle, he truly is one of the best there has ever been. His pace is ridiculous, he can score from any position and he is not rideable.

Spencer may prove to be at his level, but he needs to essentially go undefeated the next 3 years with a bonus rate of 90% just to be even with him.

Nolf is currently 86-3(one of those I personally do not count, but I am not the Official NCAA Scorekeeper).

34-2 as a RSFR bonusing 89%
27-0 as a RSSO bonusing 93%
25-1(the loss I really don't consider) as a RSJR bonusing 81% while still wrestling on a blown out knee
Barring a freak of nature he goes 30ish-0 with 90%+ bonus.

So that would put him around 116-3 with over 100 bonus wins.

Lee went 22-2 as a TF bonusing 92%

So, if you compared freshman versions, I would put Lee ahead. But, current versions? Nolf is the man!

You don't even think he's the best wrestler on the Iowa team so all this makes sense.

 

[IAChief32]

*Devil's advocate
If Iowa's starting QB decided this spring to play receiver instead would the coaches not speak to that when interviewed? If the star cornerback was moving to offense would coaches not acknowledge it when asked?

Then you'd really get a shit load of fans questioning the coach's sanity in both scenario's lol...Unless a returning starting QB is a heisman type of guy, the standard line for every coach is that there is going to be a competition for the spot. Some lineup rearranging is nothing really new in wrestling. Moving up a few weights is a little bit different...however, your analogy would play if Kemdawg was moving up to 197 or something crazy like that.

And Young, who was a 165 last season, wrestling 74kg (162.8lbs) last week was not "wrestling down". Most in that bracket will be wrestling 165 next season... the Bull also wrestled 74kg last month. So that is not one of the tea leaves of the plan in place.

I'm in the camp that believes it will go Young/Bull/Kem but doesn't get why Brands wouldn't give a definitive answer when asked. If there is a competitive advantage for speaking around it, fine... but I don't see it.

Young is most certainly wrestling down if their plan was to get him up to 174. 79kg is 174 ...why have a guy cut to 163 when your plan was to wrestle him at 174? Also, he wrestled his last 4 matches at 174. As to your second question, Tom has always played coy with lineup questions and its not necessarily about competitive advantage although most coaches have the view about treating the media like mushrooms...I'm guessing it is about keeping other guys motivated to win the spot...especially at 157.

 

[Jackhawk87]

*Devil's advocate
If Iowa's starting QB decided this spring to play receiver instead would the coaches not speak to that when interviewed? If the star cornerback was moving to offense would coaches not acknowledge it when asked?

And Young, who was a 165 last season, wrestling 74kg (162.8lbs) last week was not "wrestling down". Most in that bracket will be wrestling 165 next season... the Bull also wrestled 74kg last month. So that is not one of the tea leaves of the plan in place.

I'm in the camp that believes it will go Young/Bull/Kem but doesn't get why Brands wouldn't give a definitive answer when asked. If there is a competitive advantage for speaking around it, fine... but I don't see it.

I can see a lot of reasons. Things are still in slight limbo and weight changes are not complete.

Plan A - highly likely but not 100%
Kem is gaining good weight and will be at 174.
Bull's preferred weight is 165.
Young can get to 157 and will be effective.

Plan B
Kem is gaining good weight and will be at 174.
Young can't get down to 157 and goes 165.
Bull, while preferring to go 165, can get down to 157 more easily than Young and goes 157 for the team.

Plan C
Kem is gaining good weight and plans on being at 174. His weight gain stalls, however, and can't get to a full sized 174 and in one month says he wants to go 165.
Bull says "No problem. I like eating, I got 174."
Young can get to 157 and will be effective.

Other unlikely plans in place as well. You expect Brands to give the plan and all possible variations and various timelines of the plan with percentages just in case one of them plays out? Or does he just say things will work out, despite having a primary plan and multiple backup plans to kick in in one month, two months, etc.?

Edit: Of course, those in the Inner Circle get all the plans, percentages and timelines when we hang out in the sauna together but are sworn to secrecy. The rest of you get "Things will work out".

 

[artradley]

I can see a lot of reasons. Things are still in slight limbo and weight changes are not complete.

Plan A - highly likely but not 100%
Kem is gaining good weight and will be at 174.
Bull's preferred weight is 165.
Young can get to 157 and will be effective.

Plan B
Kem is gaining good weight and will be at 174.
Young can't get down to 157 and goes 165.
Bull, while preferring to go 165, can get down to 157 more easily than Young and goes 157 for the team.

Plan C
Kem is gaining good weight and plans on being at 174. His weight gain stalls, however, and can't get to a full sized 174 and in one month says he wants to go 165.
Bull says "No problem. I like eating, I got 174."
Young can get to 157 and will be effective.

Other unlikely plans in place as well. You expect Brands to give the plan and all possible variations and various timelines of the plan with percentages just in case one of them plays out? Or does he just say things will work out, despite having a primary plan and multiple backup plans to kick in in one month, two months, etc.?

Only "Plan A" is a plan. The others are contingencies. But the only way this gets initiated is if Dawg says he can't make 157 any more. Once he says he's on his way to 174, there is no turning back; especially if his move caused Young to start cutting down. If Dawg tries to get to 174 and fails, the team is screwed.

That's why I say Plan A would have to be the one and only plan. No contingencies. I would be more than a little disappointed if TnT approved MK to start the move to 174, but told him it's okay if he doesn't make it. And I don't see that being their style.

 

[PapaBearSLIM]

Then you'd really get a shit load of fans questioning the coach's sanity in both scenario's lol...Unless a returning starting QB is a heisman type of guy, the standard line for every coach is that there is going to be a competition for the spot. Some lineup rearranging is nothing really new in wrestling. Moving up a few weights is a little bit different...however, your analogy would play if Kemdawg was moving up to 197 or something crazy like that.



Young is most certainly wrestling down if their plan was to get him up to 174. 79kg is 174 ...why have a guy cut to 163 when your plan was to wrestle him at 174? Also, he wrestled his last 4 matches at 174. As to your second question, Tom has always played coy with lineup questions and its not necessarily about competitive advantage although most coaches have the view about treating the media like mushrooms...I'm guessing it is about keeping other guys motivated to win the spot...especially at 157.

A weight change is a change in position on the team. You mentioned other sports and that analogy is about as close as you can get in football. Even a linebacker changing from inside to outside would at least get a "We're gonna try him there and see how it works out" when asked.

Did Young not wrestle 74kg last summer? He was presumed to be wrestling 174 this time last year. Young/Bull both wrestling 74kg is no more an indicator that Young will be 157, Bull will be 157 or Bull will be 174.
I only mentioned Young for those that have said he is "wrestling down so..."

Motivation to win the spot is weak unless it was a thing where all weights are in limbo every year until the season. Even then its a reach.

 

[1stplacehawk]

A weight change is a change in position on the team. You mentioned other sports and that analogy is about as close as you can get in football. Even a linebacker changing from inside to outside would at least get a "We're gonna try him there and see how it works out" when asked.

Did Young not wrestle 74kg last summer? He was presumed to be wrestling 174 this time last year. Young/Bull both wrestling 74kg is no more an indicator that Young will be 157, Bull will be 157 or Bull will be 174.
I only mentioned Young for those that have said he is "wrestling down so..."

Motivation to win the spot is weak unless it was a thing where all weights are in limbo every year until the season. Even then its a reach.

Young wrestled 79kg last summer.

 

[PapaBearSLIM]

Only "Plan A" is a plan. The others are contingencies. But the only way this gets initiated is if Dawg says he can't make 157 any more. Once he says he's on his way to 174, there is no turning back; especially if his move caused Young to start cutting down. If Dawg tries to get to 174 and fails, the team is screwed.

That's why I say Plan A would have to be the one and only plan. No contingencies. I would be more than a little disappointed if TnT approved MK to start the move to 174, but told him it's okay if he doesn't make it. And I don't see that being their style.

This place would go batshit if Bull, Kem and Young are wrestling off at 165 in November. And I'm sure there will still be some press secretaries.

 

[PapaBearSLIM]

Young wrestled 79kg last summer.

Thank you. Didn't wanna look it up.

 

[artradley]

Young wrestled 79kg last summer.

?

Is that a weight class?

 

[MSU158]

You don't even think he's the best wrestler on the Iowa team so all this makes sense.

Well done!

Of course that was taken out of context. I did specify that I expected Lee to pass Kemerer, I just gave Kemerer more props by having been more proven over the course of 2 season.

It's sort of like rankings vs. personal opinion. Should Marinelli have been ranked in the teens to start last season? Absolutely. Did I believe he would be an AA? I said it from the beginning.

For clarity, here is my "personal opinion" top 10 lb for lb:

1. Nolf
2. Nickal
3. Valencia
4. Lee
5. Gross
6. Joseph
7. Yianni
8. Hall
9. Suriano
10. Martin

Fix will most likely move into the top 10 quickly, but I need to see big matches that count before deciding.

 

[IAChief32]

This place would go batshit if Bull, Kem and Young are wrestling off at 165 in November. And I'm sure there will still be some press secretaries.

Yea...except that wouldn't be logical. Like moving a star CB to WR full time. What is going on now is pretty logical...If you are saying we are carrying Tom's water, that's fair play I guess. But also know that the guys that are questioning it are guys that are known to have an admitted anti Brands bias. I guess the question is...which side of the spectrum has credibility? TnT don't text me their lineup changes but living here and going to some practices, you hear and see things. So when certain moves get made, you either nod your head and say that makes sense or you don't...either way, I think we are going to be just fine this winter.

 

[artradley]

This place would go batshit if Bull, Kem and Young are wrestling off at 165 in November. And I'm sure there will still be some press secretaries.

LOL!

JRent, DeSanto, Happel, Turk, and Murin all go 141
Bull, Kem, Young all at 165

Cats and dogs living together -- mass hysteria!

 

[Dagboi]

Jason Nolf is the best wrestler in college right now.

Superman Lee

 

[PapaBearSLIM]

Yea...except that wouldn't be logical. Like moving a star CB to WR full time. What is going on now is pretty logical...If you are saying we are carrying Tom's water, that's fair play I guess. But also know that the guys that are questioning it are guys that are known to have an admitted anti Brands bias. I guess the question is...which side of the spectrum has credibility? TnT don't text me their lineup changes but living here and going to some practices, you hear and see things. So when certain moves get made, you either nod your head and say that makes sense or you don't...either way, I think we are going to be just fine this winter.

Refer to the linebacker analogy.

As already stated I believe it will go Young/Bull/Kem but don't get why Brands would dance around it.

And yes, I agree the Hawks will be more than fine this winter.

 

[Grip220]

Jason Nolf is the best wrestler in college right now.

Emmm Im going Lee then Nolf you know Hawk Fan

 

[Divided42]

Go back and watch Hall wrestle Amine he was 1 point from losing twice and you tell me I’m wrong he is very beatable.

Well to be fair Amine wrestled 2 extremely close matches with Zahid this season as well. Frankly I thought Amine might get Zahid after he got that 2nd takedown in the NCAA Semi.

Nolf is on another level compared to Hall in folk, no offense to Hall, Nolf is just that good. That being said the top 4 at 174 is much better than the top 4 at 157 imo, so that may play into his higher bonus percentage a bit.

 

[Grip220]

Well to be fair Amine wrestled 2 extremely close matches with Zahid this season as well. Frankly I thought Amine might get Zahid after he got that 2nd takedown in the NCAA Semi.

Nolf is on another level compared to Hall in folk, no offense to Hall, Nolf is just that good. That being said the top 4 at 174 is much better than the top 4 at 157 imo, so that may play into his higher bonus percentage a bit.

Im not sure your correct about the top 4 Nolf, Hidlay, Kem ,Panteleo Deakin for this year or
174 Hall, Kem , Amine ,Kutler ? If Z goes up

 

[1stplacehawk]

?

Is that a weight class?

Yep

 

[artradley]

Refer to the linebacker analogy.

As already stated I believe it will go Young/Bull/Kem but don't get why Brands would dance around it.

And yes, I agree the Hawks will be more than fine this winter.

I think that's where almost everybody stands -- it looks like Young and Dawg aware swapping spots, and that seems great.

The two camps are those who are fine with Brands being coy about it, and those of us who don't understand why he doesn't just come out and say it.

 

[1stplacehawk]

I think that's where almost everybody stands -- it looks like Young and Dawg aware swapping spots, and that seems great.

The two camps are those who are fine with Brands being coy about it, and those of us who don't understand why he doesn't just come out and say it.

It's become a thing in the coaching profession. None of them seem to be straight forward about anything. I don't believe anything they say regardless, because it's pretty much all coach speak.

 

[TarpHawk]

Tom has tightened up his recruiting game in response to Cael and Ryan. That's great, but he had the lead in 2010. That shows he's not infallible, but also shows he learns from his mistakes. I feel good about our recruiting trajectory for the first time in years.

He has yet to show that he's tightened up his strategy on allocating dollars efficiently across weight classes and having a plan for allocating wrestlers efficiently across weights. His philosophy has been "It will work itself out." That's true, if winning NCAA titles doesn't matter. Not trying to be a dick--the proof is in the pudding.

We had a logjam at 149 with Sorensen, Grothus, and Cooper that resulted in a weak 141 and 157 at NCAA time. We had PD3 floating mysteriously between 184 and 197, resulting in Wilcke not being at his optimal weight at NCAAs. (Fine to blame 75% of that on PD3.) We had 3 top-20 guys at 141 with a giant gaping hole at 133.

Gable somehow managed to get Troy Steiner, Lincoln Mac, and Terry Steiner into 3 different weight classes in the same year in order to put the team into better contention to win a title. He didn't say, "Lincoln and Troy are both 142-pounders, but it will work itself out."

We all know the article is coach-speak, we all know Tom is not going to commit to anything now, no one really expects otherwise.

But to trust that he has a plan and just isn't telling us is inconsistent with the data we've seen over the past 7 years. If he does, great! Some of us are skeptical until we see the evidence. But peace. Nobody needs to call anybody names over it. We're far ahead of where we were a few short years ago regardless. It's going to be a great season.