ADVERTISEMENT

UCLA/USC to B1G?!?!?!

The only question to me is what happens to the ACC and their buyout date of 2036?

At this point, it seems the real battle will be if a reformed Big12 can entice any PAC 12 schools to join and does the additions of the current 4 school expansion even occur.

The SEC and B1G will be miles ahead of whomever ends up as the #3.
I saw the buyout was $52 million. If I’m a ACC team I would jump ship and just pay that after the first year of TV deal. I would assume the extra would be more than what they are getting now.
 
You're right . . . there's no scenario that exists under any circumstance that "flagship" programs would leave a conference to align with a different conference for more money.

You're right . . . There's no scenario where Michigan, Penn State, USC and UCLA decide that their membership in the "richest collegiate conference" wouldn't think to themselves . . . "why split the money equally among 16 teams when we can add 33% to our coffers by maintaining the same footprint and reducing conference members by 4."

You're right . . . decisions are being driven by loyalty and not based upon money.

You're right . . . there's lots of situation in sports where those making millions upon millions upon millions say "we've got it pretty good; we don't need to make more" and remain satisfied with the status quo.

"Doomsday fascination?" Give me a break. Simply pointing out facts.

Lots of people posting here comments like "that will never happen." Pretty sure that there are 12 university fanbases who were confident that USC and UCLA would "never" leave the Pac-12. Those "flagship" schools were too deeply engrained in Pac-12 tradition and in financially sound condition. Why would they affiliate with a conference that has no teams west of Lincoln, Nebraska? That would "never" happen.

Athletic Department revenue. Increasing budgets. That's the driving force. Loyalty - out the window. Logistics - out the window.

So . . . tell me again about how this will never negatively impact a school like Iowa.
Your logic and reasoning is sound but wouldn't that be unprecedented? Teams have been moving/joining new conferences for quite some time now but I don't remember a single school ever being "kicked out".
 
  • Like
Reactions: cmhawks99
Your logic and reasoning is sound but wouldn't that be unprecedented? Teams have been moving/joining new conferences for quite some time now but I don't remember a single school ever being "kicked out".
Yes, it is essentially unprecedented. Temple is the only one I can recall from a major conference.

It’s not happening. People love to talk out their ass when stuff gets crazy.
 
  • Like
Reactions: BettDogs7 and Ree4
Your logic and reasoning is sound but wouldn't that be unprecedented? Teams have been moving/joining new conferences for quite some time now but I don't remember a single school ever being "kicked out".
A school being removed from a conference would seem less likely than simply the biggest players moving elsewhere. For example, tosu and michigan would lose the Big Ten name if they bolted. But if it's all about money they'd probably have more to gain if they formed a "super duper league" or whatever you'd like to call it with the top programs in the country. If this were a 30 team league, then I could see Iowa making the cut as one of the bottom 10 or so in. Progress?
 
Iowa's net worth factors in:
1. Ticket sales.
2. Donations.
3. Revenue sharing from the B1G's television contracts.

#1 doesn't add anything to any other team in the B1G.
#2 doesn't add anything to any other team in the B1G.
#3 is a function of cable subscriptions, TV viewing households, population, etc. It is a "pot" of cash that is split equally.

Iowa doesn't add more to the B1G's conference revenue pot than Minnesota, Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana or Illinois. BTN gets $.75/month per cable, satellite or streaming service that has BTN as part of its base package. The revenue generated in Iowa pales in comparison to every other market (other than Nebraska).

If 80% of households in Iowa have BTN as part of their TV package, Iowa households generate about $7.2M for BTN per year.
If 80% of households in Minneapolis alone have BTN as part of their TV package, Minnesota households generate $12.6M for BTN per year.
When NYC got added to BTN footprint by adding Rutgers, BTN revenues skyrocketed. In that financial sense, Iowa benefitted more from Rutgers being in the B1G than vice versa.

I never wrote that Iowa is "screwed." I wrote that people who are giddy over this news should look at what is driving the decision making process. The driving force is television revenue and the need to increase Athletic Department budgets in the "arms race." If it continues to trend in that direction and re-alignment continues in that direction, Iowa isn't exactly playing from a position of strength.
You make some good points and offer balance, but you're missing some important metrics.

TV viewers are not defined by state borders. Iowa's TV numbers have been great for years, the Hawkeye brand draws. It's not just how many TV sets are there...it's how many are tuned into the game. The Minneapolis numbers are the perfect example. The TC metro is roughly the population of the entire state of IOWA... but the Gophers don't draw anywhere near the TV viewers that the Hawks do.

IOWA pays it's way and brings value to the conference. Look at the annual valuation of college football programs, we're always in the top 25.

https://247sports.com/LongFormArtic...ia-Ohio-State-Oklahoma-178007658/#178007658_1

https://www.gobankingrates.com/net-worth/sports/25-most-valuable-teams-college-football/

Certainly not on the level of a Michigan or Ohio State...but that's true of pretty much every other team in the B1G. If the B1G long term play is an elite super conference with only huge TV markets...half the B1G will be dropped. It won't just be an IOWA problem...it'll be the end of college football as we know it for many schools.

Iowa will be fine. If not, we're going to be among a pretty large group of teams in the same situation.
 
Last edited:
I saw the buyout was $52 million. If I’m a ACC team I would jump ship and just pay that after the first year of TV deal. I would assume the extra would be more than what they are getting now.
I'm reasonably certain schools like Clemson have attorneys doing work behind the scenes.

Imagine being the newly hired Big12 Commish and walking into this shitstorm?
 
  • Like
Reactions: BrunoMars420
Best post I saw, dont have much time to lurk :(

"Iowa State needs to apply for the B1G and get out of this conference that Bowlmovementsby destroyed"
They are so delusional. The Big 10 is adding teams like USC and UCLA. Not also-rans like ISU.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ree4
The PAC 12 TV deal is up next. They are going to get a worse deal than they had before given they lost the LA Market and believe that was the worst of the 5 major conferences.

Fox, ESPN, Amazon whomever is going to want the combine select Pac 12 teams with other conferences resulting in 1 less conference to pay a TV deal. And those schools are not going to be enthralled with pay cuts they are going to look for a way to get a better deal.

Washington State and Oregon State are MWC bound.

I don't think Stanford/Cal could live with BYU and Baylor in the same conference.
More likely it will be the 2 Arizona Schools, Phoenix is a decent size market, Colorado (Denver) and Utah (Salt Lake City)

I agree with everything here and honestly I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried at all. But I'm not worried much.

The PAC is the one who is screwed this time.

The ACC teams are locked because of their ridiculous GoR going all the way to 2036, plus their TV contract runs until then as well and it absolutely sucks.

The Big 12 schools GoR goes to 2026. The fact that OU and UT still haven't even said when they are leaving the conference means it's pretty dang tough to get out of those things. So the PAC can't poach Big 12 teams without serious GoR issues for their 2024 contract, and that thing probably needs to be finalized extremely soon. Sounds like the Big 10's was weeks away from being finalized for 2024. Right now the PAC is negotiating TV broadcast rights, and every network knows any team that can is trying to get out right now. I don't think they can get teams from any other conference on any sort of short timeframe.

For a long time I've been saying at least financially, it's going to be a Big 2, the SEC and Big 10. Those conferences are going to command the vast majority of the TV money. What the best way forward is for all other teams is to try and get in to those conferences. If they can't, what is the best way forward for them? I don't know, but it sure seems like at least for the Big 12 and PAC, it's about time to start talking about some kind of merger.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ree4
Best post I saw, dont have much time to lurk :(

"Iowa State needs to apply for the B1G and get out of this conference that Bowlmovementsby destroyed"

I don't think the Big 10 is taking anybody else from the PAC or Big 12. This has happened twice in two years now - OU and UT, and USC and UCLA. Both times it came completely out of left field and we found out and it was finalized in like 24 hours.

Honestly very few ISU fans are still talking about ISU to the Big 10, honestly that is pretty much dead. You'll find some dummies out there that think it's possible or hope it's possible but most people aren't talking about it at all.
 
Your logic and reasoning is sound but wouldn't that be unprecedented? Teams have been moving/joining new conferences for quite some time now but I don't remember a single school ever being "kicked out".

"Kicking out" is the wrong terminology. And, yes, I originally wrote "booted" - so that's on my word choice.

All signs point to the creation of two super conferences. If two super conferences are started/created, what is driving the decision making process for who is "in" and who is "out?"

Someone earlier wrote that if it was a 24 team super conference, Iowa should be nervous but if it was 30 teams, Iowa should be safe.

If I'm a television executive and consulting with decision makers, I'm looking to maximize revenue opportunities (ads). I'm thinking that Iowa should feel safe if the two power conferences total 40 teams. Iowa may have a higher "net worth" than Utah but, if I'm a TV executive, I'm likely concluding that Utah brings more revenue to the table to be shared among conference members than Iowa does. Hell, I"m likely concluding that Rutgers brings more to the revenue table to be shared among conference members than Iowa does.

The more I think about logistics . . . the less I like this development.
 
A school being removed from a conference would seem less likely than simply the biggest players moving elsewhere. For example, tosu and michigan would lose the Big Ten name if they bolted. But if it's all about money they'd probably have more to gain if they formed a "super duper league" or whatever you'd like to call it with the top programs in the country. If this were a 30 team league, then I could see Iowa making the cut as one of the bottom 10 or so in. Progress?

This. This. And this.
As for top 30? I wouldn't be confident. I'd feel a hell of a lot better if it was 40 or more teams.
 
I don't think the Big 10 is taking anybody else from the PAC or Big 12. This has happened twice in two years now - OU and UT, and USC and UCLA. Both times it came completely out of left field and we found out and it was finalized in like 24 hours.

Honestly very few ISU fans are still talking about ISU to the Big 10, honestly that is pretty much dead. You'll find some dummies out there that think it's possible or hope it's possible but most people aren't talking about it at all.
Probably not the big 12 but I would assume it’s a forgone conclusion they will be taking in a couple more teams from the PAC
 
I don't think the Big 10 is taking anybody else from the PAC or Big 12. This has happened twice in two years now - OU and UT, and USC and UCLA. Both times it came completely out of left field and we found out and it was finalized in like 24 hours.

Honestly very few ISU fans are still talking about ISU to the Big 10, honestly that is pretty much dead. You'll find some dummies out there that think it's possible or hope it's possible but most people aren't talking about it at all.
Yes I agree, most that I saw were pretty level headed and honestly I think it sucks that things are moving this way. College tradition is going away all because of greed and the almighty dollar. The B1G had to make a move like this to stay at/near the top and it was the right move however unfortunate it might be.
 
"Kicking out" is the wrong terminology. And, yes, I originally wrote "booted" - so that's on my word choice.

All signs point to the creation of two super conferences. If two super conferences are started/created, what is driving the decision making process for who is "in" and who is "out?"

Someone earlier wrote that if it was a 24 team super conference, Iowa should be nervous but if it was 30 teams, Iowa should be safe.

If I'm a television executive and consulting with decision makers, I'm looking to maximize revenue opportunities (ads). I'm thinking that Iowa should feel safe if the two power conferences total 40 teams. Iowa may have a higher "net worth" than Utah but, if I'm a TV executive, I'm likely concluding that Utah brings more revenue to the table to be shared among conference members than Iowa does. Hell, I"m likely concluding that Rutgers brings more to the revenue table to be shared among conference members than Iowa does.

The more I think about logistics . . . the less I like this development.
You have to remember that conferences are about more than just athletics though, athletic money is dwarfed by research grants although I'm sure that gap is closing somewhat. I just dont see it happening but wouldnt rule it out either. You definitely bring up fair points
 
The only question to me is what happens to the ACC and their buyout date of 2036?

At this point, it seems the real battle will be if a reformed Big12 can entice any PAC 12 schools to join and does the additions of the current 4 school expansion even occur.

The SEC and B1G will be miles ahead of whomever ends up as the #3.
They already are
 
Why wouldn't they have already done it when they took USC and UCLA then? What are they waiting for?
I’m sure there are conversations going on right now we don’t know about. The big ten and usc/ucla were talking for 8 weeks before this happened. Now that usc and ucla are with the big ten, where do you think Oregon/Stanford/Washington are going to look with these new TV deals coming up? Also I’m sure the big is looking at information on valuations now and in the future of potential teams and how it affects their bottom line.
 
  • Like
Reactions: MitchLL
I’m sure there are conversations going on right now we don’t know about. The big ten and usc/ucla were talking for 8 weeks before this happened. Now that usc and ucla are with the big ten, where do you think Oregon/Stanford/Washington are going to look with these new TV deals coming up? Also I’m sure the big is looking at information on valuations now and in the future of potential teams and how it affects their bottom line.
Also this is like saying, “why didn’t usc and ucla do it after OU and UT left the big 12?” Shit takes time to figure out lol
 
  • Like
Reactions: BettDogs7
I’m sure there are conversations going on right now we don’t know about. The big ten and usc/ucla were talking for 8 weeks before this happened. Now that usc and ucla are with the big ten, where do you think Oregon/Stanford/Washington are going to look with these new TV deals coming up? Also I’m sure the big is looking at information on valuations now and in the future of potential teams and how it affects their bottom line.

Why didn't they do that when they were talking with USC and UCLA 8 weeks ago? You think the decision makers at the Big 10 aren't aware of those three schools' valuation?

Rumors of UCLA and USC to the Big 10 have been happening for a very long time. It's not new.
 
Why didn't they do that when they were talking with USC and UCLA 8 weeks ago? You think the decision makers at the Big 10 aren't aware of those three schools' valuation?

Rumors of UCLA and USC to the Big 10 have been happening for a very long time. It's not new.
Because obviously they were focusing in on USC And UCLA lol. Don’t forget, USC and UCLA reach out to them. Did any other PAC schools reach out to the big ten like them? Reactions from the PAC commissioner seems like these convos were kept secret unless you think all ADs in the PAC share emails and convos with everyone 🤷🏽‍♂️
 
  • Like
Reactions: bumpstock
Why didn't they do that when they were talking with USC and UCLA 8 weeks ago? You think the decision makers at the Big 10 aren't aware of those three schools' valuation?

Rumors of UCLA and USC to the Big 10 have been happening for a very long time. It's not new.
The "reason" it was rumors was b/c they kept it secret...from everybody, get it? They didn't need to include others. Now, the B1G is in the cat-bird seat. They can choose to let whomever they want in, or, let nobody in.
 
  • Like
Reactions: BrunoMars420
Why didn't they do that when they were talking with USC and UCLA 8 weeks ago? You think the decision makers at the Big 10 aren't aware of those three schools' valuation?

Rumors of UCLA and USC to the Big 10 have been happening for a very long time. It's not new.
BTW, do you think that just maybe the Huskies/Ducks, or Bears/Indian want to keep their potential move on the down low, too? What do they gain from leaking it?
 
Sigh.

Tradition and competitive balance are dead. Money is really the only thing on the table.

I'm assuming USC & UCLA will join the West and Purdue will be sent East. It also means that once a year the Hawks will be heading to LA for a game.

The Hawks have not fared well traveling West during the regular season. These will likely be night games, which means the games will start at 9 or 10 PM local time - and "body time" for the players. Not good.

On the other hand, the LA teams will have to travel to the Midwest 3 -4 times a year, and probably the eastern time zone annually or biannually.

The travel in basketball just got re-dick-ulus!

But, let's not worry about the players, coaches or families! :rolleyes:
It’s a free country man. Those kids and families can do whatever the F they wanna do. Go dig taters instead if they want.
 
Why wouldn't they have already done it when they took USC and UCLA then? What are they waiting for?
Because USC/UCLA were like pulling a lynch pin. Other PAC schools were thinking the PAC was solid. Plus, when making moves like this you want things to remain quite and the more people in the room the more chance for leaks. Now you've locked in USC/UCLA, the rest of the PAC realizes the situation they are facing. The BIG can now select the schools they want as they will be coming to them as well.

Also remember, USC/UCLA approached the BIG. That's the way it works. The conference didn't go poaching. Reports are that Oregon and Washington have now approached the BIG. My guess is Cal and Stanford will too, probably all the PAC schools will now. The BIG can be selective, or choose to stand pat.
 
The Big Ten (then the Western Conference) was organized in 1895 or so. The University of Iowa joined in 1899.

In 125-plus years the Big Ten has never permanently kicked anybody out. Suspended for a year or two for malfeasance, yes. And that's more than most conferences do.

The University of Chicago (excellent academic school) left because they thought athletics were being overemphasized. That was about 1940.

Conference membership isn't decided by fans on message boards, or even athletic directors. It's decided by university presidents. Relax Iowa fans, we aren't going anywhere.

Now Iowa State, it might be time to look at that Mountain West schedule. Time to look at road trips to Colorado State, Air Force and New Mexico.
 
The issue for non B1G and SEC programs will be coaching salaries and keeping head assts.

Imagine lil Matty wondering "what could have been"?
 
Divisions are probably being dropped with this news, so I wouldn’t bother speculating. Maybe 3 locked rivals.
 
Also remember, USC/UCLA approached the BIG. That's the way it works. The conference didn't go poaching. Reports are that Oregon and Washington have now approached the BIG. My guess is Cal and Stanford will too, probably all the PAC schools will now. The BIG can be selective, or choose to stand pat.
You sure about that? According to another gem on cyclone fanatic this might have happened, lol:

"They could be killing the Pac 12 slowly with questionably illegal media interference like the Big Ten and SEC did to the Big 12.

It's entirely possible...but Washington and Oregon will be part of this sometime
."
 
Divisions are probably being dropped with this news, so I wouldn’t bother speculating. Maybe 3 locked rivals.
I’d like to see an annual lotto ball schedule and have a week long reveal. Why do we need to know 6 years from now we play Indiana away?
 
  • Like
Reactions: rchawk
Interesting if they're really putting the decision to ND. That means, potentially ND/Oregon/Wash/ and one more yet TBD.

The total package, if considering other sports and academic standing, Stanford.
Would not be shocked if ND was approached first with the hook that if they join now they will have a say in the future, i.e. they will have a voice on who else is added. Could benefit a school like Stanford where there may be a decision to be made between them and another school.

The flip side is ND waits, and the BIG keeps a spot open until the last moment, but that any way you slice it the BIG/SEC are divvying things up and if you want a say in the process join now. Otherwise you'll get what you get, or maybe be left out entirely.
 
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT