WBB 16/17 Season

[NJ-HawkDog]

WBB Hawks have a tougher road to NCAA Tourney than their Big Ten Peer Group - especially after the road Illinois loss. They now need to win up to 2 road wins against their B10 peer group to even have a chance at the NCAA tourney

The following is one approach at looking at the WBB Hawks making the NCAA Tournament. It is based on the common principle that to qualify you need to win your conference home games and win a couple on the road. Feel free to suggest changes to assumptions and/or provide a counter view.

Assumption - Three tiers of WBB Big Ten Teams:

1. Tier 1 (2): Will fight for Big10 Title
   • Maryland and Ohio State
   • Expected to win road games against Tier 2 and 3 teams
   • Will likely get top 2 Big10 NCAA seeds
2. Tier 2 (7): Will contend for NCAA bid and places 3-9 in Big10 standings
   • Michigan, Michigan St, Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue, Penn St and Iowa
   • Expected to win road games against Tier 3, but lose home games to Tier 1
   • 3-5 NCAA bids from this group
3. Tier 3 (5): Rebuilding or struggling teams not going to NCAA or NIT
   • Nebraska, Illinois, Minnesota, Rutgers and Wisconsin
   • Expected to lose home games to Tier 1 and 2

Using the above as a guide, the difficulty of the road to the NCAA can be determined across the Tier 2 teams (those fighting for an NCAA birth). Difficulty of initial schedule base on above:

Most Difficult INITIAL Big10 schedules - hardest to easiest across Tier 2 teams:

1. Iowa - (+1) expected wins over 8-8 record (win all home games, loses all road games)
   • Expected home loss to Maryland (-1),
   • Expected roads wins against Illinois and Rutgers (+2)
   • Expected home wins over Tier 2 and 3, expected road loses to Tier 2
2. Purdue (+2): Maryland & OSU home (-2) and Ilini, Wisc, Minn & Rutgers away (+4) Michigan St (+2): Maryland & OSU home (-2) and Neb, Wisc, Min & Rutgers away (+4)Northwestern (+2): OSU home (-1) and Nebraska, Minnesota & Rutgers away (+3), Penn St (+2): No home game against Maryland or OSU(-0) and Illini & Rutgers away (+2)Indiana (+2): Maryland & OSU home (-2) and Illini, Neb, Wisc & Minnesota away (+4)
3. Michigan (+3): No home game against Maryland or OSU (-0) and Illini, Neb & Wisc (+3)

What this says is that if games go directionally to form, the Hawks would need to get 1-2 more unexpected wins than teams that they are fighting to get a NCAA big against, based on strength of Big10 schedule

Now - lets see how this plays out for games to date (if remaining games go to form)

1. Iowa is sitting at (+0) given they lost to Maryland at home and beat Rutgers on the road, but lost an expected win to the Illini on road. 3-3 record - all wins against Tier 3 teams
2. Penn St (+0), given they lost to IU at home and Rutgers on the road. 3-4 - wins: Iowa, Neb, Wisc
3. Purdue (+2), wins and losses to plan to date. 3-3 - wins: MSU, PSU and Wisc
4. Michigan State (+2), given a home win against OSU, but a road loss to Rutgers. 3-3 - wins: OSU, Ilini and Neb
5. Northwestern (+2), wins and losses to plan to date. 4-2 - wins: beat 3 Tier 2 teams at home (IU, MSU and Purdue)
6. Indiana (+3), win on road vs. PSU. 3-3 - wins: @PSU, Purdue, Minn
7. Michigan (+3), wins and losses to plan to date

Given the games to date, the Hawks now need 2 or 3 more unexpected wins to finish in the top 7 in the Big10. They will need to beat two of their Tier 2 peers on the road (Mich, Purdue or Indiana) while winning all games at home.

 

[non-poster]

NJ--You must have had some spare time on your hands. ; )

While there are a couple givens in your analysis that I don't think are completely cut and dried (upsets around the rest of the conference being the biggest) I think your logic is pretty solid.

Sticking just with Iowa's schedule, since really that's the only controllable for the Hawkeyes, I look at both the MSU and NU games at home as being concerning. Both teams have different styles of play, but both have given Iowa trouble. Things have also been problematic at Crisler, Assembly and Mackey for Coach Bluder.

While they could go on a great roll, realistically I think this squad could finish anywhere from 16-12/7-9 on the low end to 18-10/9-7 on the high end. Either way they would need to pick up at least 2, probably 3 wins in the BIG Tournament to have a shot at the NCAA Tournament.

 

[LinusPF]

12-7 record.
Assume home wins over Rut/Wis and road losses to Mary / OSU. Leaves us 14-9 / 5-5
Remaining games are all toss-ups: Minn / at Mich / MSU / NW / at Pur / at Ind. NJHawkDog - I wouldn't call any of them "expected losses".

I say win five of them we're in the tournament. And for every less win we need to win a B1G tournament game - ex. Win four of them we need to win a B1G tournament game, and so on.

 

[oakhawk]

Good win for the Hawks today , 80-65 over Minnesota.
Minnesota maintained a small lead in the first half by shooting well. the hawks shot very well in the second half to pull away.
Megan with a double-double, 19-12. Ally had 17 (3 threes) , Tania had all of her 10 points in the second half. Kathleen Doyle added 11. Tania 8 assists, 1 TO.
Bre Cera was more offensive minded.The bench did well. Everyone got in.Only 11 turnovers.
One of the toss ups goes to the Hawks.

 

[BGHAWK]

Good to see Ally hit 3 of 7 threes. MacKenzie got 2 quick fouls and didn't play much until the 4th Q, but she hit a big 3 and a 2 so that's was good. Enjoy watching Doyle and Davis.

Now, my gripe and I am going to email Barta. Stop the polytechnics (sp?) stuff at the introduction of the Iowa players. You could smell the fumes and see the haze the rest of the game.

 

[mphawk]

Good to see Ally hit 3 of 7 threes. MacKenzie got 2 quick fouls and didn't play much until the 4th Q, but she hit a big 3 and a 2 so that's was good. Enjoy watching Doyle and Davis.

Now, my gripe and I am going to email Barta. Stop the polytechnics (sp?) stuff at the introduction of the Iowa players. You could smell the fumes and see the haze the rest of the game.

I agree. Once on the pyrotechnics was cool, but now it is every game, both men's and women's. Carry on now with the regular griping!

 

[BGHAWK]

Nm

 

[Bum Leer]

I agree. Once on the pyrotechnics was cool, but now it is every game, both men's and women's. Carry on now with the regular griping!

I agree on the pyrotechnics, but I thought the girl scouts gave a great reaction when it happened. I know the two young girls in the family sitting in front of me squealed and giggled.

 

[wneff]

I agree on the pyrotechnics, but I thought the girl scouts gave a great reaction when it happened. I know the two young girls in the family sitting in front of me squealed and giggled.

At Friday's wrestling meet they/we were doing it before each match, and I could actually feel the heat each time they did it.

 

[oakhawk]

At the half way point in the B1Gseason, the Hawks are 4-4. They have both Maryland games out of the way after today's loss. 100.81.
Kathleen Doyle had a terrific game with 21. Five in double figures. A 26-6 run by Maryland just before the half doomed the Hawks.

 

[Row55]

Apparently Mohns is still not in game form. If she were 100% or close to it, I'd think we would see her against the more athletic teams like Maryland.

 

[non-poster]

Apparently Mohns is still not in game form. If she were 100% or close to it, I'd think we would see her against the more athletic teams like Maryland.

According to her and the medical staff I spoke with. She is ready. Had a quick conversation with one of the assistants last week and she said they are just having trouble finding her minutes right now. I clearly couldn't hide my surprised reaction, and she just shrugged her shoulders. Your guess is as good as mine. I don't think there is any question Carly was on her way to not only being a starter, but a solid contributor before her injury. Not being hypercritical, but Coach Bluder has tended to fall into this method of operation before---Once she sets a rotation, she stays with it (good or bad). Some good players get buried on the bench.

 

[conn53victor]

Tania Davis makes Sportcenter

 

[bravehawks1]

Agree on getting rid of the pyrotechnics. It has run its course now that is done at every game, both men and women. At least they eliminated the fireworks that created the haze which was especially bad at women's game which I suspect was due to the curtains down that keep the ventilation system to take care of it.

Also would like to see Mohns on the court. I think her athleticism would be helpful. She could easily take the minutes from Kastanek IMO

 

[oakhawk]

On the Carly front, she has looked ready to go both in warm-ups and in the few minutes she has played. She was directing traffic on defense and looked quick and agile. When they are down 20 and getting beat on rebounds and defensive drives, I wonder why she isn't given a chance.
Before she got injured she was on the verge of starting, and she was a force in GTL. I can't figure it out either.

 

[brfhilltop]

According to her and the medical staff I spoke with. She is ready. Had a quick conversation with one of the assistants last week and she said they are just having trouble finding her minutes right now. I clearly couldn't hide my surprised reaction, and she just shrugged her shoulders. Your guess is as good as mine. I don't think there is any question Carly was on her way to not only being a starter, but a solid contributor before her injury. Not being hypercritical, but Coach Bluder has tended to fall into this method of operation before---Once she sets a rotation, she stays with it (good or bad). Some good players get buried on the bench.

I always thought that this year we were just a PF away from being a really good team. That said. I would move Ally to the wing and play either Mohns or Olliniger at the PF. This is the way I would play the players. 1. Davis, Doyle 2. Doyle, Meyer 3. Ally, Meyer, Cera, Buttenham 4. Mohns, Olliniger 5. Megan, Stewart, Chase.

 

[bravehawks1]

I always thought that this year we were just a PF away from being a really good team. That said. I would move Ally to the wing and play either Mohns or Olliniger at the PF. This is the way I would play the players. 1. Davis, Doyle 2. Doyle, Meyer 3. Ally, Meyer, Cera, Buttenham 4. Mohns, Olliniger 5. Megan, Stewart, Chase.

Agree with everything but the players at the 4 spot. Ollinger may have been better served by also redshirting to work on strength and foot speed. She really struggles keep up on the wing. Chase is probably a litte better at the 4 spot than the 5 too, primarily due to strength issues and not being a very good defender in the lane. Key for the women's team is keeping Doyle on the court and out of foul trouble. She brings the intensity kind of like Baer does for the men or like Logic did for four years

 

[brfhilltop]

Chase is to slow to be effective at the 4, to go along with her lack of defense. I was hoping at the beginning of the season that Stewart would be able to play the 4. But it looks like she is best suited for the post.

 

[LinusPF]

Could not have been a worse last 10 minutes! Great effort though.
Any one of six or so plays goes differently down the stretch and we win.

I'd say maybe two of Doyle's five fouls were legit!

 

[UpstreamHawkeye]

Doyle seems to run into foul trouble a lot of times. I remember it happened to Logic in her early years as well. Similar playing style maybe?

 

[ant80]

I think there's going to be some bad news with Tania Davis and her injury.

 

[hawkfan55]

Think Carly is gone. Cannot understand her not seeing the court in games like today.

 

[oakhawk]

Early on they had the platoon system.It was to keep people fresh in the 4th quarter, and get some floor time for the FR. Now they have gone to the opposite extreme. Starters playing 30 plus minutes and the bench with low minutes. It seems like there should be some happy medium.
I was at the men's game yesterday, and haven't been able to bring myself to rewatch the WBB game. How did Tania get injured?

 

[brfhilltop]

On a drive to the basket, landed wrong. Then Doyle fouled out soon after.

 

[oakhawk]

Thanks for the injury report.
That was a huge loss. the difference between 4th place and 7th,

 

[BGHAWK]

The Davis injury makes me sick, and hope it's only a slight strain. If it's major and she needs surgery, I hope she redshirts next year. They will have Doyle, Meyer and Sevillian to run the point if that happens. Hope I'm wrong. Those in the know, please keep us up to date on her.

 

[iarick]

Just reported Tania will miss the rest of the season. ACL tear

 

[jockos]

Just reported Tania will miss the rest of the season. ACL tear

That is awful news. Best of luck to Tania as she goes through the surgery & rehab process.

 

[oakhawk]

Shoulder last year, ACL this year. Just hoping for clean health for her going forward.

 

[cyberhawk]

It will be interesting to see how Lisa chooses to replace her in the line-up. More minutes for Mackenzie, Bre, Christina and/or Alexis. Also, who will be the new starter.

 

[hawkfan55]

It will be interesting to see how Lisa chooses to replace her in the line-up. More minutes for Mackenzie, Bre, Christina and/or Alexis. Also, who will be the new starter.

Might be a good time to dump the 4-guard lineup and go 2 bigs with Chase backed up by Carly. Mac already plays starters minutes.

 

[brfhilltop]

Jan said tonight it will depend on who they play, and the match up. Their not sure, could be Chase, Cera,or Kastanek.

 

[jockos]

Jan said tonight it will depend on who they play, and the match up. Their not sure, could be Chase, Cera,or Kastanek.

Doyle is more than ready to handle the point & Meyer will have to produce more consistently. They need another offensive threat to space the floor & out of the three mentioned Coley has been the most consistent. If they go with a guard I'd think it would be Buttenham or Kastanek getting the first chance to show they can produce & not turn the ball over at a high rate. I agree with the other poster who said it would be nice to see Carly Mohns pick up a few minutes now too.

 

[oakhawk]

Mak will need to start hitting threes again. she was shooting well, but has been cold lately. I would rather have Christina than Alexa out there. Chase in a high/low would also be good. And Kathleen will have to be less adventurous on defense. Can't have her in foul trouble.

 

[Row55]

I know knee problems are issues across pretty much all womens sports, but Iowa WBB in the Bluder years seems to have been exceptionally hard hit. I was hoping that just maybe things would even out and we'd have no knee problems for a while. Coach Jensen is quoted in the Gazette as hoping Davis will be ready for the start of the B10 next season, but that seems optimistic to me. On the upside, we have enough depth on the roster to avoid having to hold mid-season walk-on tryouts.

About Mohns, had she not already used a redshirt I'd think she'd be a good bet to transfer, given the staff's apparent commitment to the 4-guard lineup. However if she transfers now, she'd only have one season left to play (unless she goes DII or NAIA). Guess we'll see. If I were Ollinger, I'd be wondering about playing time also.

 

[BGHAWK]

I would be thrilled to have Tania back to start the B1G season next year but doesn't it take closer to a year for most athletes? If she's 100% then great.

Has Tania had surgery yet?

 

[brfhilltop]

I think Cera will get the start against Mich. St. just for her defense. Iowa is really going to need to guard 3 point line.

 

[LinusPF]

I'd like to see Buttenham get the most of Tania's minutes. She can bring the ball up the court, can shoot the three and is willing to take a mid-range jumper, rebound and get a steal here and there. She turns the ball over more too much, but I'm afraid all our options do. Where we'll miss Tania most is her chemistry with Megan. I'm afraid that's irreplaceable this late in the season.

 

[UpstreamHawkeye]

I'd like to see Buttenham get the most of Tania's minutes. She can bring the ball up the court, can shoot the three and is willing to take a mid-range jumper, rebound and get a steal here and there. She turns the ball over more too much, but I'm afraid all our options do. Where we'll miss Tania most is her chemistry with Megan. I'm afraid that's irreplaceable this late in the season.

Buttenham commits a lot of unforced turnovers. I can't imagine how it will go if someone is actually putting pressure on her. I'm afraid she is not a good option for playing the guard position.

 

[Row55]

Am a bit disappointed that turnovers continue to be an issue. In B10 play, we're at -1.6 which puts us in 10th place (I thought it would be worse than that). Also, we're in 13th place for 3-point shooting at .287, though thanks to Gustafson we're 3rd for overall FG%. Otherwise we're in the middle of the pack for most stats (which you'd expect for a 5-5 record).