If it were just guys saying Iowa is no longer the favorite, it wouldn’t be an issue. But, some of you guys are posting like they have no chance. That simply isn’t close to true. Even with Lee out, they have a legit chance to have 10 AA’s. You simply can’t count out a team like that.
Now, I wouldn’t predict 10, but there have been very few team throughout history this deep. As long as DeSanto isn’t out too, like Willie has been saying, this team is right in it:
125: most teams lose a guy like Lee and their chances are gone. Not Iowa. Ayala is proving he is able to compete with the 5-12 guys and could score 10-15 crucial points. But, for this exercise I will go 2-15 points in range.
133: DeSanto is a 15-25 pt guy if healthy. I just don’t see him losing to anyone other than Fix or RBY and I wouldn’t completely count him out from beating one of them if everything goes right. 15-25 points
141: Eierman is still undefeated. Go doom and gloom all you want but he still found ways to win those close matches that most wouldn’t have. He is another 15-25 pt guy.
149: Murin can reach the podium. He is still limited against fast guys that can wrestle from space. But, he still looks hungry and determined. He could be a guy that bolsters their chances by AAing for the 1st time. 2-12 points
157: Too many count him out every year and he keeps proving you wrong by AAing. 2-14 points
165: Alex has his chance to be the captain everyone knows he is and put the team on his shoulders. With Lee out, he is the true deciding factor. He can score 20+ points more than he did last year. If that happens Iowa wins it guaranteed. Still, as deep as the weight is I would give him a very wide range, but still AA status. 10-23 points
174: Even with the shoulder, who do you really see beating him? Maybe Starocci, Lewis or Hidlay, but after them I just don’t see it. So 15-24 points.
184: Abe is your icing on the cake guy. If he does end up on the podium, I would be willing to bet Iowa wins it all. As long as the lineup stays as is. For now I would say 2-14 points range.
197: Warner is really good. Don’t get caught up in how (un)entertaining his wrestling is and just trust that he will AA yet again. 9-19 points.
285: I admit, so far, the body transformation hasn’t appeared to result in better wrestling from Cass. But, we haven’t seen him against a true AA candidate yet. Til then, I would lower his bottom range a bit, but I still can’t pick him to finish off the stand. 8-20 points.
So, if basically everything went wrong I have Iowa scoring 80 points and 6 AAs. That is too good of a team to count out. If you did a realistic low end with PSU, their total would be less simply by dropping the returning champs to 3rd or 4th place finishes. Which wouldn’t be unrealistic. Let alone having a guy like Hildebrandt miss the podium and 149-165 scoring less than 5 points total.
To me, the championship is going to really be decided by what Alex and Abe do for Iowa vs. what Dean and Kerkvliet do for PSU. They are the ones that can score quite a few more points than what their respective weights scored for their teams last season.