Hard to say what the Rockies are thinking specifically, but here’s the framework for what his deal will wind up being:
#38 overall slot value: $2,452,200
This is the technical slot value for Brody. As noted, guys get over and underslot based on a variety of factors. Using the Cubs as an example, in 2022, the Cubs took Cade Horton from Oklahoma coming off big arm injuries and were able to get him somewhat under slot because of the injury questions and then they took HS pitcher Jackson Ferris in the 2nd round and went over slot to entice him to sign vs. going to college. For Brecht, specifically, he carries some leverage because he could technically go back to college, though that’s exceedingly unlikely. The Rockies would probably have to low-ball/insult him to do that and they won’t. They might be able to get away with going a little underslot, but likely wouldn’t need to go over for Brody, so I think he‘ll wind up with something +/- 5% of the slot value.
The way these contracts work is that the draft slot value becomes the player’s first-year pay. So let’s assume a round number and Brody signs for $2.5M. He’ll get paid $2.5M this year, fully guaranteed. Once that money is paid out, he’d be on minor league contracts under team control until a point where he’d be added to a team’s 40-man roster, at which point he’ll convert to MLB minimum salary and proceed from there if he sticks and lasts in the bigs.
Worth nothing that each team has a bonus pool available to them and the smaller market teams get more money to start. Rockies have the 2nd largest available pool for getting their picks signed at $17,243,400. The Rockies took Charlie Condon, the powerful OF from Georgia #3 overall and his slot value will be a tick of $9M. I would expect he’ll get full slot. The Rockies 2nd round pick slots at $200k less than Brody, so if those 3 guys all get slot, the Rockies will use almost $12M of their $17.2M available, which isn’t surprising. Some teams do try to hold back several million for Day 3. You can get some really interesting prospects who are all set to go to college, but if you throw a significant overslot at them you can sometimes get them to choose going pro. It’s a fascinating game to watch.
