A good point made by Seth Greenberg about a team's season

[OskaloosaHawk]

Last week as I was watching #1 Kansas dismantle #25 Texas (Kansas was up by 24 at half and went on to win by 30 AT TEXAS), I heard Seth Greenberg make a great point about games like that and how to put them into perspective when figuring out the true overall ability of a team. Obviously, Texas was not as bad as the result that night and quite possibly Kansas not as good. But the point that Greenberg went on to make was that to figure out how good a team REALLY is, you've got to forget about their BEST five performances and their WORST five performances. The other 20 - 25 games is WHO YOU ARE. So, it got me to thinking that arguably 4 of our 5 worst games just so happened to come in a row late in the season (Penn St., Wisconsin, Ohio St. and Indiana). Even our early losses to Dayton, Notre Dame and ISU weren't terrible games. I'd guess our 5th bad game may have been only beating Drake by 6 on a neutral court.

As for our 5 best games, I'd say we were really clicking on all cylinders against Marquette, Wichita St., both Michigan St. games and at Purdue (especially in the second half).

The other 20 games we are 15 - 5 and played some pretty solid basketball. If those 20 games are who we are, I'm confident in our team moving forward. Curious to see what others think our best and worst 5 games of the season are.

 

[ChiHawk21]

Hard to disagree with the logic here. However the way opponents play you changes over the course of the season. Our challenge has primarily been because we have not been able to re-adjust to that style change from our opponents. Our season could almost be broken into two parts, with the second part still ongoing in the BTT. If we find a way to readjust against solid teams, then I would agree with this logic, and a high seed in the NCAA would be warranted.

 

[Pepperman]

I think that analysis would hold more water if the five worst games were sprinkled into the season as opposed to being jammed together for the most part...

But I can understand the logic behind it. As many people also say, you're never as good as you think you are nor are you as bad as you think you are. Similar thinking there.

 

[SDHawkDoc]

I agree with the principle.

My reasoning for the season goes something like this:
1. January play- they exceeded their abilities
2. February play- they fell below their abilities.
3. December play- close to their ability level.

A rough breakdown. But I think it fits. In an overall down year for the top tier of the NCAA, Iowa has a reasonable argument for a 20th or so ranking. They're not a top ten team. But there is much less separation between top 10 and teams 10-20 than in other years.

 

[whatsup13579er]

ESPN's BPI ranks each single-game BPI based on site, margin, pace, and opponent strength, on a 0-100 scale.

According to that metric, Iowa's best 5 wins are @ MSU 99.7, vs Wichita State 99.6, vs MSU 98.8, @ Marquette 98.6, and both Purdue games were 97.9.

5 Worst were @ PSU 49.5, vs Wisc 49.7, vs Drake 56.3, vs ND 62.2, vs Minn 64.4.

Iowa's BPI game average excluding the top 5 and bottom 5 is 84.82. The only game Iowa lost with a higher game rank than that was @ ISU which scored a 86.3.

What does all of this mean? I don't really know if it tells us anything that we don't already know. When Iowa is running on all cylinders they are very, very good and nearly impossible to beat. Even when they play really poorly, they are good enough to have a chance to win late in the game. If average Iowa shows up they will probably beat any team outside of the top 25.

 

[hooper56]

I feel like once Iowa gets out of the Brutal B1G we really have a chance to make a run. Uthoff is really hard to guard if you have not seen him before and Jok can light it up if you give him an inch. Mike looks like opie taylor but can drive the lane and dunk on you if you let him. I kind of feel like we are sneaky good.

 

[DavenportHawk8]

I feel like once Iowa gets out of the Brutal B1G we really have a chance to make a run. Uthoff is really hard to guard if you have not seen him before and Jok can light it up if you give him an inch. Mike looks like opie taylor but can drive the lane and dunk on you if you let him. I kind of feel like we are sneaky good.

I agree, I just hope this team can get over the "big game" slump. It seems like every time we are in a big game, we lay a big turd in the post season. I am hoping this group of guys can make it happen.

I agree that we have some solid players and I think our bench will show up back up in the post-season, because we all know in order to go deep into March, your bench has to be a factor. Iowa has 4 quality player off the bench, they do not have to score ton of points, they just have to come in and hustle and play solid defense.

It will also depend on the match-ups. If Iowa is a 6 seed they will get a solid Mid-Major (A-10, MVC) or possible (bubble team) as the 11 seed. IF they are 4-5 seed then they get into to smaller conferences and smaller teams, but still could get a Power 5 bubble team. The match up will be interesting.

 

[Jumpshot00]

Iowa at there best means
1) Jok and Utoff are on offensively and can account for 40-50 points
2) Woody is dominating on board and defense AND takes 6-8 high % shots.
3) Clemmons shuts down an opposing player and doesn't commit silly turnovers
4) MG has his high assist to TO ration and either he or Clemmons or both of them combined hit 3 or 4 open jumpers and finish at the rim.
5) Somebody off the bench gives a spark offensively and approaches 10 points. Doesn't matter who....Uhl or Bear hit a couple of threes, Wager with some garbage buckets, or Williams finding room to operate.

As opposed to the last two year when Iowa made the NCAA, I think if this team plays at its best they will beat any team in front of them. We have seem them at their best in January when 4 or 5 of those things I listed were happening, and since then not all of the parts are at their best. The comeback verses Indiana and the win at Michigan may mean these parts are coming back together.

 

[SDHawkDoc]

They have more potential for offensive firepower than last year.
As noted above, it starts with Jok and Uthoff offensively. If between the two of them they can account for 50+ pts. it puts the Hawks in good position.
I like Iowa's chances better in an up tempo game. They don't fare as well when they're asked to put together too many half court offensive series.

 

[jamesvanderwulf]

I feel like once Iowa gets out of the Brutal B1G we really have a chance to make a run. Uthoff is really hard to guard if you have not seen him before and Jok can light it up if you give him an inch. Mike looks like opie taylor but can drive the lane and dunk on you if you let him. I kind of feel like we are sneaky good.

Not sure the Big 10 is all that brutal this year. The main thing is we did not get to play the four teams that finished in the bottom of the league but one time each this year.