HOLY S%$T!! Harris 47 Trump 44, Final Selzer IOWA POLL!
- Thread starter pjhawk
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Yep. But there are schools that are responsible for this mess too. They have not lived up to their end of the bargain in many cases.
Taxes in Iowa are hardly a concern. There are 3 reasons older Iowans leave the state and taxes aren’t in the list.
December…
January…
February
Are the reasons. Oldsters don’t wanna shovel snow, slip on the ice and wear an ortho boot or have a fractured hip surgically repaired.
That is why seniors go South.
Gus to be honest, I’d rather talk to my ex-wife’s attorney than with you. Sorry. I don’t understand the thought process of folks like you or RICO…
Remember to vote come Wednesday.
A couple of caveats about the Ann Selzer poll:
The sample size of 808 isn't very large.
The margin of error is +/- 3.4
Trump could still win the state and be within the margin of error.
The sample size of 808 isn't very large.
The margin of error is +/- 3.4
Trump could still win the state and be within the margin of error.
Those are my biggest takeaways from this poll. That said, if he only wins by that margin I think it will show how screwed he is in other states. He’s been bleeding support and the poll was conducted before his microphone BJ.
Sure but if Trump wins Iowa by 1-2, that’s a pretty ominous sign for him elsewhere.
FWIW, I think Selzer’s poll is an outlier and Trump will win Iowa by around 5 but that still shows bleeding support. One can hope.
I've always wondered how much polling affects people that haven't yet voted?
If your candidate is shown to be doing poorly, does it motivate you to go vote or does it make you feel like your vote won't make a difference???
I think this is where the "ground game" plays in.
If your candidate is shown to be doing poorly, does it motivate you to go vote or does it make you feel like your vote won't make a difference???
I think this is where the "ground game" plays in.
I'd have to say it's probably a wash. Either way, the Selzer poll is not one of those polls that is designed to undergird or reinforce campaign messaging.
You used to say that politics was factually a joke and that we humans waste entirely too much of our lives arguing about it?
What specifically changed your mind?
And no the answer isn't "not anything real specific".
Btw if you think a bunch of 40, 50, 60, 70, and 80 year-old stubborn, set-in-their-ways "okay pal" American males arguing on message boards about politics is being "grown up" and not the actions of glorified toddlers............well then you aren't done "growing up" either, and yes you need to learn that lesson before you can finish growing up.
Hope that helps, Bryce!
P.S. and don't worry about me. I won't make the same mistake you did and get to (whatever the f*** your age is) and change my thinking on politics, nor will I stop believing that the Presidency should be handled by the person most deserving of and most capable of doing the job right by the American people, and not just of the candidates available to us as provided by the good ole boys and girls clubs of Republicans and Democrats
At its very core you’re basically saying that unless you get the very best candidates, you’re not going to participate.
That’s fine, but that take your ball and go home mentality I think is childish.
We’re never going to get the best possible applicants for the position.
I heard about this poll but it's sort of a I will believe it when I see it. If Iowa goes blue on election day I'll believe it. I don't til then.
Guys, the GOP is definitely not flooding the zone with polls.
I just heard that Bohannon is up nearly 20 points. I don’t live in Iowa but if that’s correct it might mean the house goes to the Democrats, does this feel correct?
That was reported this morning on one of the news shows.
3M has done basically nothing, like most Republicans, to help everyday Iowans. She just pushes their fears and grievances.
It's hilarious that the size of his rallies is so important to his ego that he'll lie about it. A real life Cartman.
I saw that; was that a local cameraman? I didn’t see a news logo on it. But wow; kudos to him for that.
If that’s accurate…Iowa as a whole might be in play after all.
Guy proven to spread Russian disinformation. Ignored
MK posts Russian dis-info constantly.
He's either an actual Russian troll, or an uneducated dupe.
Demanding better of American politicians and of the voting public to not allow poor candidates like Trump and Harris the opportunity to be in these positions in the first place is "taking my ball and going home"?
Oh.........and why is that?
You seem smart. 🤡
On August 18, 2019, publisher Regan Arts announced that Halperin had signed a new book deal. The book, entitled How to Beat Trump: America's Top Political Strategists on What It Will Take, was published in early-November 2019. Contributors to the book include David Axelrod, Donna Brazile, and James Carville.
Endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris for President of the United States — National Security Leaders for America
Kamala Harris will make an excellent Commander-in-Chief, while Mr. Trump has proven he is not up to the job. Effective leadership requires in-depth knowledge, careful deliberation, understanding of your adversaries, and empathy for those you lead. Our endorsement is an act of patriotism and an endor
www.nsl4a.org
Wow, I am trying to be magnanimous and you cut me off at the knees. I also don't think I deserve it as I would say Im likely one of the most reasonable cons on this site along with a few others.
But you'll get your sought after likes from the rest of the leftys on this site so I guess you accomplished what you hoped for.
You better believe I am voting but Ill do it Tuesday like the rest of my team. And my wife who had no intention of voting Trump until a week or two ago when I posted she mentioned she would.
I also take back my well wishes on your post surgical recovery for being such an ass hat.
New Iowa Poll shows Democrats leading in two congressional races
A new poll released Sunday showed Democratic candidates Christina Bohannan and Lanon Baccam leading their Republican opponents Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn.
kcci.com
First results I’ve seen for congressional races. Baccam and Bohannon both leading here.
This one doesnt. What do you think about it?
Donald Trump Takes Shock Lead Over Kamala Harris in New Hampshire Poll
Link:I can't believe this one hasnt shown up on here so far. Well maybe I can...
Even if Trump wins Iowa, which is likely, if it’s super close, perhaps Iowa can shun the Mississippi North label, yes?
Well, for one, this is an Iowa board, so I’d expect a surprising Iowa poll to garner more attention than a NH poll. For another, while NH has often gone blue for president, it’s been by thin margins.
You could tell me NH went Trump on Tuesday and I’d be far less surprised that I would be if Iowa went for Harris.
No idea how accurate that poll is, but if KH comes even close to winning Iowa (say, within 2 points), there's no way she'll lose any major swing state and the election is hers. If she actually wins Iowa, I will have a new respect for the people of the state, who have worked hard building a reputation as total MAGA hillbillies.
Yeah, I agree with that. The fact is, people in general, tend to believe the things that support the things they already believe and discount the things they don't believe. So, I'd guess that's another reason this hasn't gotten the attention of the HBOTDNCC.
It’s certainly very encouraging, as well as with the congressional polls I included earlier.
I think most of us have expressed skepticism about Harris actually winning Iowa…but we largely didn’t expect it to be close at all. If it is, I think that bodes well for Harris in Wisconsin/Michigan for example, who have similar demographics to some extent - less so for Michigan obviously.
What margin do you consider super close? Serious question. Because I'd like to get a few people on record to what they think will be the real Iowa result and what would surprise them and what wouldn't.
I've already said 2% Trump margin. But I think I'd like to amend that and say Trump by 5% based on recent moves. Thats my final answer.
Trump-Vance 52.8/47.8 Harris-Walz.
I mean, your margin makes sense to me. If women vote as predicted, it will probably be a little closer.
No idea. I just can’t believe Iowa is as trashy as some like to claim. It’s been over 15 years since I lived in Iowa, but I can’t believe the state has changed that much.
Mississippi is a real shithole. I would like to believe Iowa is a much better place than that.
Trump isn't the reason we've become Mississippi North.
It's our Governor and AG.
When Dim Kim's liver finally fails and Brenna Bird loses the civil suit for the gambling investigation fiasco and the State pays that multi million dollar damage judgment, then we can discard the Mississippi North moniker.
I mean, Trump won in ‘20 by about 8%, so close to me is in the 52/48 range.
Selzer had Trump by 7 in ‘20 for what it’s worth.
Demanding better of American politicians and of the voting public to not allow poor candidates like Trump and Harris the opportunity to be in these positions in the first place is "taking my ball and going home"?
Oh.........and why is that?
What does "Demanding better" look like? Is it like Michael Scott walking in and screaming "I DECLARE BANKRUPTCY!"
Why don't we get better candidates? Well I think a lot of it has to do with how the process of running is funded. That's not anything I have any control over.
I'm guessing you're going to say you're writing somebody in or something like that, and you consider that participating.
That's kind of like going to a block party where there is a big competition. You can either play spikeball or bags. You have decided both those options are beneath you, so you go into your neighbors basement and play Call of Duty by yourself. Yeah, you're physically at the block party, but you aren't actually participating in it, and your general superiority complex is kind of off putting to your neighbors.
