4 years of Harris/Biden haven't worked out well for America and the American people.
Time to put Trump back in the White House!!!
HOLY S%$T!! Harris 47 Trump 44, Final Selzer IOWA POLL!
- Thread starter pjhawk
- Start date
Time to put Trump back in the White House!!!
Primaries tend to be controlled by the extreme voters,... not the average.
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FWIW I'm on a Zoom call with the pollster at noon today as part of the Iowa Writer's Collaborative.
If I hear anything new/interesting I'll post in this thread later this afternoon.
If I hear anything new/interesting I'll post in this thread later this afternoon.
W orthless degrees…..NO placement services as promised….Go b ack and study the history Rico…There were TWO Congressmen who pointed out the “sins” of “on-line” colleges (where this problem primarily exists) and the were Congresswoman Maxine Waters of California and Senator Tom Harkin of Iowa. Do some research of your own….I cant do your thinking for you. There were lots of promises made by these “colleges” that were never kept….They preyed upon the most desperate….they took their $$ and ran…..
True……however, Selzer’s “sample size” has always been 808…for all her polls. And….Selzer understands her results are within “the margin of error”….
Did you watch her on “Morning Joe” this AM? She is very good at what she does….and she knows she is pretty good at it too.
LOL - People graduate from U of I with worthless degrees in some fields of study. It is definitely not the schools fault if a student decides to pursue a worthless field of study. Regarding placement, employers have the last say in who they hire.
Obviously he is counting all 5 of my votes…..
Current Iowas Repubbers covet MIssissippi….MIssissippi and Arkansas….watch out! IOWAY is on the way!
Her polling has been consistent. Trump was up 18 over Biden and Harris cut that to 4 by the last poll. There was no reason to believe that was the end of it. If her 14-point surge in support was still growing, the 4-point margin now is certainly plausible.
Anyone originally from this State that hasn't been back for say, a decade, wouldn't recognize what we've become.
From a dirty environment to abandoned farmsteads to dilapidated small towns to a shortage of good healthcare and on and on.
And I won't even address politics.
Perhaps we could just call Mississippi by another name...Iowa South?
Nah, it's more like:
Sheesh, you are really desperate to try to land one of these zinger analogies, aren't you, lol. But then again......
Because, unlike you, I can actually accurately illustrate what your youth was like:
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Fun chat with J Ann Selzer today. She is an impressive, smart person. No b.s.
Some interesting nuggets I gleaned:
Some interesting nuggets I gleaned:
- People poo-poo the "small" sample size of 800, but the 800 number is only after significant winnowing of well more than 1,000 to determine which are the likeliest voters (i.e. those who have already voted or have a long track record of showing up at the polls). Each individual is interviewed pretty extensively. This is the same methodology she has used for more than a decade.
- Of self-described Republicans interviewed, just over 5% said they were going to vote for Harris this time. Of self-described Democrats interviewed, slighty less than 1% said they are voting for Trump this time. So GOP has around 5% more "defectors" than the Democrats.
- While this poll garnered a "shockwave" of attention due to its proximity to Election Day and it showing a shift in a red state toward Harris, the more remarkable poll movement - in Selzer's mind - was the shift from June to September. In her June poll, when Trump was facing Joe Biden, Trump led him by 18%. The September poll showed nearly that entire lead wiped out, with Trump only leading by 4% over Harris. That 14% shift was twice as big as the September-October shift of Trump +4% to Harris +3%. And it shouldn't be viewed as that much of a surprise, more a continuation of an already existing trend.
- She is increasingly comfortable being an outlier because she believes strongly in her data and unlike other pollsters, she doesn't tweak or weight outcomes based on past mistakes. "Not to be cocky, but I don't make many" she said, which was pretty funny coming from a very sedate, serious person. She noted the one time she was really worried was back in 2008 when she was working for the Indianapolic Star. GWB had carried Indiana by 19 points in the previous election and her last poll in 2008 showed Obama winning by 1%. She was worried she had screwed up - but Obama ended up winning by .9%. She also got a ton of criticism in the 08 Iowa caucuses too when her data showed that 60% of likely caucus goers that year had never participated before - historically that number had NEVER been over 20% so most "experts" thought her prediction was bunk - but it turned out that new participants made up right around 60% that year as predicted. "I have belief in my method so I don't feel the pressure to weigh or change data. The less you do that, I think, the more accurate you are."
- One reason she believes polling is less trustworthy now than 10, 15, 20 years ago is that back when she started, there were only maybe 100 or so professional polling firms. Now, because the cost and technology barriers to do polling have decreaded (because of robocalls, texting, social media, etc.) there are more than 400. She believes that has created a lot more noise in the space and more bad data.
- People over 65, particularly women, are driving the shift away from Trump, she said. In the interviews, she got the sense that many in that cohort vividly remember the tumult of the Civil Rights/Vietnam/Roe V. Wade/Assassinations and general chaos of the 1960s and they see Trump as being an agent of chaos and they, frankly, are just tired of the drama.
- In order, the Top 2 issues for those saying they are voting Harris are 1. Protecting the future of democracy and 2. Access to abortion. In order, the top 2 issues for those saying they are voting for Trump are 1. Inflation and 2. Immigration.
- When asked if she thinks that Iowa and this poll are a "canary in the coal mine" - that is, showing a shift happening in other Midwest and red states - she said "I don't know, I don't have the data." However she said there is a distinct possibility that other pollsters who do weight data based on past results to try to avoid future mistakes are missing the shift. "I've sat in this chair numerous times when people have said I'm crazy, and then it turns out I was right. I think it's often a false premise that pollsters think if they correct past mistakes, it will be a perfect poll now. It's a moving target."
It's telling, and apropos, that you identify with Dwight Schrute.
Nah, it's more like:
Sheesh, you are really desperate to try to land one of these zinger analogies, aren't you, lol. But then again......
Because, unlike you, I can actually accurately illustrate what your youth was like:
Can't make this stuff up.
Her whole campaign the last month has been trans bigotry. If she does lose I'll be fascinated to see the gender / age numbers, and any polling about how her refusal to live in the district hurt her. Probably not much, but it is a curiosity. If she loses it's going to because of reproductive health, and her unwavering support of Trump
That's not quite fair to Miller-Meeks. She does have one other issue: "Brown people bad!"
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Miller-Meeks' target audience reminds me of an old Dead Milkmen song called "Stuart"
You know what, Stuart, I LIKE YOU. You're not like the other
People, here, in the trailer park.
Oh, don't go get me wrong. They're fine people, they're
Good Americans. But they're content to sit back, maybe
Watch a little Mork and Mindy on channel 57, maybe kick
Back a cool, Coors 16-ouncer. They're good, fine people,
Stuart. But they don't know ... what the queers are doing
To the soil!
You know that Jonny Wurster kid, the kid that delivers papers
In the neighborhood. He's a foreign kid. Some of the neighbors
Say he smokes crack, but I don't believe it.
Anyway, for his tenth birthday, all he wanted was a Burrow Owl.
Kept bugging his old man. "Dad, get me a burrow owl. I'll never
Ask for anything else as long as I live." So the guy
Breaks down and buys him a burrow owl.
Anyway, 10:30, the other night, I go out in my yard, and there's
The Wurster kid, looking up in the tree. I say, "What are
You looking for?" He says "I'm looking for my burrow owl."
I say, "Jumping Jesus on a Pogo Stick. Everybody knows
The burrow owl lives. In a hole. In the ground. Why the hell do you
Think they call it a burrow owl, anyway?" Now Stuart, do you
Think a kid like that is going to know what the queers are
Doing to the soil?
I first became aware of this about ten years ago, the summer
My oldest boy, Bill Jr. died. You know that carnival comes into
Town every year? Well this year they came through with a ride
Called The Mixer. The man said, "Keep your head, and arms, inside
The Mixer at all times." But Bill Jr, he was a DAAAREDEVIL, just
Like his old man. He was leaning out saying "Hey everybody,
Look at me! Look at me!" Pow! He was decapitated! They found
His head over by the snow cone concession.
A few days after that, I open up the mail. And there's a pamphlet
In there. From Pueblo, Colorado, and it's addressed to Bill, Jr.
And it's entitled, "Do you know what the queers are doing to our
Soil?"
Now, Stuart, if you look at the soil around any large US city,
There's a big undeground homosexual population. Des Moines, Iowa,
For an example. Look at the soil around Des Moines, Stuart.
You can't build on it; you can't grow anything in it. The government
Says it's due to poor farming. But I know what's really going on,
Stuart. I know it's the queers. They're in it with the aliens.
They're building landing strips for gay Martians, I swear to
God.
You know what, Stuart, I like you. You're not like the other
People, here in this trailer park.
No source.
New reporting that hard conversations are ongoing inside Harris campaign headquarters at this time.
Kamala Harris and Tim Walz met with campaign manager Julie Chavez, Jen O’Malley Dillon, and campaign co-chair Gretchen Whitmer this morning to review early voting data.
The meeting was described as somber. Harris was told to prepare herself mentally for a devastating loss on Tuesday.
The joy is gone.
New reporting that hard conversations are ongoing inside Harris campaign headquarters at this time.
Kamala Harris and Tim Walz met with campaign manager Julie Chavez, Jen O’Malley Dillon, and campaign co-chair Gretchen Whitmer this morning to review early voting data.
The meeting was described as somber. Harris was told to prepare herself mentally for a devastating loss on Tuesday.
The joy is gone.
I hope you find some chump to take that bet Gus....
The final sales pitch for the Trump campaign continues to be strong: Make the orange paint even darker, and talk about kitchen table issues.
She's an old hag
What is your source or just a figment of your imagination?
Ill make a bet that if Harris wins you are gone for a month. If Trump wins I will leave for a month. We will see how confident you are. This bet is for Phenomenally Frantastic only.
- Sep 13, 2002
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In case you'd like to hear the Selzer call yourself:
okobojiwriters.substack.com
J. Ann Selzer has political junkies FREAKING OUT
...the Iowa Poll released Saturday at 6:00 p.m. has folks reeling.
okobojiwriters.substack.com
Phenom will probably be gone anyways if Harris wins, he'll probably join up with the Proud Boys or other similar faction, trying to stop the steal.
