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HOLY S%$T!! Harris 47 Trump 44, Final Selzer IOWA POLL!

torbee said:
Miller-Meeks' target audience reminds me of an old Dead Milkmen song called "Stuart"

You know what, Stuart, I LIKE YOU. You're not like the other
People, here, in the trailer park.

Oh, don't go get me wrong. They're fine people, they're
Good Americans. But they're content to sit back, maybe
Watch a little Mork and Mindy on channel 57, maybe kick
Back a cool, Coors 16-ouncer. They're good, fine people,
Stuart. But they don't know ... what the queers are doing
To the soil!

You know that Jonny Wurster kid, the kid that delivers papers
In the neighborhood. He's a foreign kid. Some of the neighbors
Say he smokes crack, but I don't believe it.

Anyway, for his tenth birthday, all he wanted was a Burrow Owl.
Kept bugging his old man. "Dad, get me a burrow owl. I'll never
Ask for anything else as long as I live." So the guy
Breaks down and buys him a burrow owl.

Anyway, 10:30, the other night, I go out in my yard, and there's
The Wurster kid, looking up in the tree. I say, "What are
You looking for?" He says "I'm looking for my burrow owl."
I say, "Jumping Jesus on a Pogo Stick. Everybody knows
The burrow owl lives. In a hole. In the ground. Why the hell do you
Think they call it a burrow owl, anyway?" Now Stuart, do you
Think a kid like that is going to know what the queers are
Doing to the soil?

I first became aware of this about ten years ago, the summer
My oldest boy, Bill Jr. died. You know that carnival comes into
Town every year? Well this year they came through with a ride
Called The Mixer. The man said, "Keep your head, and arms, inside
The Mixer at all times." But Bill Jr, he was a DAAAREDEVIL, just
Like his old man. He was leaning out saying "Hey everybody,
Look at me! Look at me!" Pow! He was decapitated! They found
His head over by the snow cone concession.

A few days after that, I open up the mail. And there's a pamphlet
In there. From Pueblo, Colorado, and it's addressed to Bill, Jr.
And it's entitled, "Do you know what the queers are doing to our
Soil?"

Now, Stuart, if you look at the soil around any large US city,
There's a big undeground homosexual population. Des Moines, Iowa,
For an example. Look at the soil around Des Moines, Stuart.

You can't build on it; you can't grow anything in it. The government
Says it's due to poor farming. But I know what's really going on,
Stuart. I know it's the queers. They're in it with the aliens.
They're building landing strips for gay Martians, I swear to
God.

You know what, Stuart, I like you. You're not like the other
People, here in this trailer park.
Click to expand...
I haven't thought of that song in a looong time! I can literally hear him talking as I'm reading this. Thanks for that!
 
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torbee said:
🤞🤞🤞
Click to expand...
Trump's closing argument as been truly embarassing and next-level erratic compared to 2016 and 2020. I just saw him this morning after he voted telling reporters he has "no regrets" about his campaign and that 2024 is clearly the best of his three campaigns — that's so stupid that I don't know how to respond. He also said his supporters "believe in no violence," which is LOLOLOLOLOL.
 
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joelbc1 said:
I have paid “the State” every cent I owed..not taxing 401/403 $$ is just a poor idea…in my opinion. The agreement made when this money was deferred was taxes would be paid upon its distribution… an agreement folks knowingly accepted when they started these accounts…
It is nothing more than a giant pander to retirees and to basic human greed. Again, my opinion.
Click to expand...
Or, a way to try to retain more retirees in the state. 👍
 
joelbc1 said:
Taxes in Iowa are hardly a concern. There are 3 reasons older Iowans leave the state and taxes aren’t in the list.
December…
January…
February
Are the reasons. Oldsters don’t wanna shovel snow, slip on the ice and wear an ortho boot or have a fractured hip surgically repaired.
That is why seniors go South.
Gus to be honest, I’d rather talk to my ex-wife’s attorney than with you. Sorry. I don’t understand the thought process of folks like you or RICO…
Remember to vote come Wednesday.
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Agreed that weather is a big reason that Iowan’s migrate south. However, you would be naive to think that taxes don’t also play a part too. I know numerous people where taxes & state estate tax laws are a prime factor in where they retire.
 
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LunchBox50 said:
Trump's closing argument as been truly embarassing and next-level erratic compared to 2016 and 2020. I just saw him this morning after he voted telling reporters he has "no regrets" about his campaign and that 2024 is clearly the best of his three campaigns — that's so stupid that I don't know how to respond. He also said his supporters "believe in no violence," which is LOLOLOLOLOL.
Click to expand...
Even if Trump wins, this closing two week stretch has to be one of the worst I’ve ever seen. If Harris wins, I think you could argue this was as big a factor as the Comey letter was in ‘16.
 
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Your mother and her friends rely on the President of the United States for their health?
 
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torbee said:
Fun chat with J Ann Selzer today. She is an impressive, smart person. No b.s.

Some interesting nuggets I gleaned:

  • People poo-poo the "small" sample size of 800, but the 800 number is only after significant winnowing of well more than 1,000 to determine which are the likeliest voters (i.e. those who have already voted or have a long track record of showing up at the polls). Each individual is interviewed pretty extensively. This is the same methodology she has used for more than a decade.

  • Of self-described Republicans interviewed, just over 5% said they were going to vote for Harris this time. Of self-described Democrats interviewed, slighty less than 1% said they are voting for Trump this time. So GOP has around 5% more "defectors" than the Democrats.

  • While this poll garnered a "shockwave" of attention due to its proximity to Election Day and it showing a shift in a red state toward Harris, the more remarkable poll movement - in Selzer's mind - was the shift from June to September. In her June poll, when Trump was facing Joe Biden, Trump led him by 18%. The September poll showed nearly that entire lead wiped out, with Trump only leading by 4% over Harris. That 14% shift was twice as big as the September-October shift of Trump +4% to Harris +3%. And it shouldn't be viewed as that much of a surprise, more a continuation of an already existing trend.

  • She is increasingly comfortable being an outlier because she believes strongly in her data and unlike other pollsters, she doesn't tweak or weight outcomes based on past mistakes. "Not to be cocky, but I don't make many" she said, which was pretty funny coming from a very sedate, serious person. She noted the one time she was really worried was back in 2008 when she was working for the Indianapolic Star. GWB had carried Indiana by 19 points in the previous election and her last poll in 2008 showed Obama winning by 1%. She was worried she had screwed up - but Obama ended up winning by .9%. She also got a ton of criticism in the 08 Iowa caucuses too when her data showed that 60% of likely caucus goers that year had never participated before - historically that number had NEVER been over 20% so most "experts" thought her prediction was bunk - but it turned out that new participants made up right around 60% that year as predicted. "I have belief in my method so I don't feel the pressure to weigh or change data. The less you do that, I think, the more accurate you are."

  • One reason she believes polling is less trustworthy now than 10, 15, 20 years ago is that back when she started, there were only maybe 100 or so professional polling firms. Now, because the cost and technology barriers to do polling have decreaded (because of robocalls, texting, social media, etc.) there are more than 400. She believes that has created a lot more noise in the space and more bad data.

  • People over 65, particularly women, are driving the shift away from Trump, she said. In the interviews, she got the sense that many in that cohort vividly remember the tumult of the Civil Rights/Vietnam/Roe V. Wade/Assassinations and general chaos of the 1960s and they see Trump as being an agent of chaos and they, frankly, are just tired of the drama.

  • In order, the Top 2 issues for those saying they are voting Harris are 1. Protecting the future of democracy and 2. Access to abortion. In order, the top 2 issues for those saying they are voting for Trump are 1. Inflation and 2. Immigration.

  • When asked if she thinks that Iowa and this poll are a "canary in the coal mine" - that is, showing a shift happening in other Midwest and red states - she said "I don't know, I don't have the data." However she said there is a distinct possibility that other pollsters who do weight data based on past results to try to avoid future mistakes are missing the shift. "I've sat in this chair numerous times when people have said I'm crazy, and then it turns out I was right. I think it's often a false premise that pollsters think if they correct past mistakes, it will be a perfect poll now. It's a moving target."
Click to expand...
I heard her say about 90% of the above on a recent TV interview. Having said that, I hope her poll results are wildly wrong. 😉
 
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