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*****Official Cubs 2024 thread*****

Big week. Prospects being added to the 40-man. Award announcements. Non-tender deadline. Will be some movement on the roster. What are ya'll thinking?

I think Hodge and Horn get added to the 40-man, although I wouldn't be surprised if neither were. I think Steele will finish 4th in Cy Young voting. I think Heuer gets non-tendered (then signed to a minor league deal), and 2-3 others are at-risk for it.

40-man is currently at 37, and I expect that it will probably be right around there going into the winter meetings.

Something to keep me busy this week leading up to the Illinois game.
Watch Michael Arias, too. Has a great pitch mix and a really good change to play off high 90s stuff. A bad team could probably just grab him and put him in the bullpen for 2024.
 
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Watch Michael Arias, too. Has a great pitch mix and a really good change to play off high 90s stuff. A bad team could probably just grab him and put him in the bullpen for 2024.
Good call, my friend. I thought he was too far away from Majors, and wasn't at risk after a really lousy stretch at South Bend, but he's on the 40-man now.

 
Good call, my friend. I thought he was too far away from Majors, and wasn't at risk after a really lousy stretch at South Bend, but he's on the 40-man now.

I interviewed Greg Huss from Northside Bound/Cubs on Deck podcast tonight for my next episode and we spent some time talking about those guys. Seems the consensus on Arias was that is upside was too high to risk and that in spite of the struggles, he’s a guy a bad team may well have just gone for and kept on their active roster all year. I love his velo + elite change combo and the funky arm slot that really plays his fastball up.

It’s kind of wild - with those additions, plus Luis Vazquez earlier, the Cubs now have 14 guys on the 40-man with less than half a season of MLB experience and about half those guys have none. I expect they’ll cut down to 37 or 38 soon (non-tender decision deadline is Friday) so that they can keep space open as they watch for waiver claims.
 
Clearly the Cubs felt like they had too many high upside arms to protect. I’ll be pissed if they lose Pablo Alliendo to some bottom feeder that can take a shot at him as a 3rd catcher and hide him for a year.
 
Clearly the Cubs felt like they had too many high upside arms to protect. I’ll be pissed if they lose Pablo Alliendo to some bottom feeder that can take a shot at him as a 3rd catcher and hide him for a year.
I do like the the fact that it’s harder to hide guys than it used to be given the pitcher roster limits and the requirement for the drafted player to be active (not on IL) for at least 90 days. That said, certainly a bad team that loves him could grab him and bury him on on their bench while they lose 100+ games.
 
Clearly the Cubs felt like they had too many high upside arms to protect. I’ll be pissed if they lose Pablo Alliendo to some bottom feeder that can take a shot at him as a 3rd catcher and hide him for a year.
I do like the the fact that it’s harder to hide guys than it used to be given the pitcher roster limits and the requirement for the drafted player to be active (not on IL) for at least 90 days. That said, certainly a bad team that loves him could grab him and bury him on on their bench while they lose 100+ games.
My guess is that the Cubs took a chance leaving him unprotected due to the fact that they have former top prospect Amaya just reaching the majors and 20 yo Moises Ballesteros currently at the same level of the organization. Add to that the possibility of them having to add a catcher from AAA to the 40-man (preferably with Major League experience) should they have an injury to Gomes or Amaya.

Can't keep everyone in the organization forever; that's why they have the R5D. Who are others that the club might be at risk of losing? Riley Thompson? Kohl Franklin? Chris Clarke (selected last year but returned)? Don't think the Cubs have taken anyone in the R5D for a few years now; seems like they rarely make an acquisition. I guess we'll wait and see.
 
My guess is that the Cubs took a chance leaving him unprotected due to the fact that they have former top prospect Amaya just reaching the majors and 20 yo Moises Ballesteros currently at the same level of the organization. Add to that the possibility of them having to add a catcher from AAA to the 40-man (preferably with Major League experience) should they have an injury to Gomes or Amaya.

Can't keep everyone in the organization forever; that's why they have the R5D. Who are others that the club might be at risk of losing? Riley Thompson? Kohl Franklin? Chris Clarke (selected last year but returned)? Don't think the Cubs have taken anyone in the R5D for a few years now; seems like they rarely make an acquisition. I guess we'll wait and see.
They are getting to the point of having to make tough choices, which is nice. They will have a journeyman catcher or two at Iowa in 2024. Alliendo is a superior receiver. If he develops a little more with the bat he'll have a solid career as a 1A or back up catcher. I love Ballesteros, but I am not sure he'll stick at catcher. He's kind of short to play 1st consistently. He isn't nimble enough for 3B, but, that bat...
 
My guess is that the Cubs took a chance leaving him unprotected due to the fact that they have former top prospect Amaya just reaching the majors and 20 yo Moises Ballesteros currently at the same level of the organization. Add to that the possibility of them having to add a catcher from AAA to the 40-man (preferably with Major League experience) should they have an injury to Gomes or Amaya.

Can't keep everyone in the organization forever; that's why they have the R5D. Who are others that the club might be at risk of losing? Riley Thompson? Kohl Franklin? Chris Clarke (selected last year but returned)? Don't think the Cubs have taken anyone in the R5D for a few years now; seems like they rarely make an acquisition. I guess we'll wait and see.
I would think Kohl Franklin would be the most likely loss (and possibly Aliendo). Kohl probably has good enough stuff to hide in a bad bullpen for a year. Pretty sure Clarke isn’t eligible for the Rule 5 again, but I could be wrong.

Here’s a piece from 2020 that gives the Cubs history (to that point) in the Rule 5. There is also a minor league Rule 5 with different rules - Cubs are a little more active there, but also most guys don’t pan out. https://www.mlb.com/news/cubs-all-time-rule-5-draft-picks

Bryce Windham has also shown really good ability to catch at AAA. He’s not going to hit much at all, but he can come up and plug a gap if one of the catchers gets hurt. That’s some Aliendo insurance. Still, most guys claimed wind up being offered back to their old team, so we’ll see how it all goes.
 
I just want to know when we are at a 550 million per year payroll. That should get us just about everyone.
 
Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus have dropped their top 10 prospect lists. Only 11 players between the two lists, so there appears to be a lot of consensus.

I miss getting into those list....I am still waiting for Felix Pie 😞

Damn we had some good ones that injuries did their thing with....Patterson...Prior.
 
Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus have dropped their top 10 prospect lists. Only 11 players between the two lists, so there appears to be a lot of consensus.
What’s sneaky about this compared to times in the past is that it’s not position vacant or position heavy.

There are 11 players that comprise the two top 10 lists (and I’d guess that most lists to come will feature 8-10 of the same guys). Guys listed as SS can realistically play any IF position, so the these 11 guys are:

4 Starting Pitchers (2 RHP, 2 LHP)
3 Outfielders (2 capable of CF)
3 Infielders (1-2 capable of SS)
1 Catcher

That’s incredible balance. Those guys will not all play in Chicago together. Some won’t pan out, but more importantly, some will be traded. They can deal some of these guys without wiping out depth anywhere. The Cubs next 10-15 guys are also pretty strong, so there will be plenty of chances to backfill anyone who is traded.
 
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The consensus of the Chicago writers is that the Cubs are moving on from Bellinger. Boras is going to stretch out the bidding longer than the Cubs want to deal with.
 
People forget that Boras works for Bellinger. That said, he’s certainly going to wait until after Ohtani goes. There will be teams in on Ohtani who may pivot to Belli when they don’t get him. That said, I don’t think the Cubs are going to sign him either.
 
Pretty sure Clarke isn’t eligible for the Rule 5 again, but I could be wrong.
He is on the list provided by thecubreporter.com. I'm certainly not an expert. That site also lists Bote and Wieck as R5D eligible, but since all 3 are Article XX-D players, I think that means that they can elect free agency at any time now, so although they may be technically eligible for the R5D, it would be a waste of pick??

I find the R5D interesting, but a majority of players end up being returned to their original club. It is a good story when a player picked in the R5D ends up being an impact player for the drafting club.
 
Andy Green will not be retained by the Cubs. Counsel's bench coach with the Brewers has been denied permission to follow Counsel to the Cubs. It will be interesting to see if anyone is retained, and who fills out the staff.
 
Is there an upside to this?
Yes, we don't overpay for one year of production.

I've read this story many times. Guys with great talent underperform, get stuck on a one year prove it deal, have a great year, sign huge real, then go back to underperforming.

It would be great to get Belli back on a reasonable deal, but don't let Boras hold the Cubs hostage here. I guarantee whoever signs Belli will overpay for what he will produce in the future.
 
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He is on the list provided by thecubreporter.com. I'm certainly not an expert. That site also lists Bote and Wieck as R5D eligible, but since all 3 are Article XX-D players, I think that means that they can elect free agency at any time now, so although they may be technically eligible for the R5D, it would be a waste of pick??

I find the R5D interesting, but a majority of players end up being returned to their original club. It is a good story when a player picked in the R5D ends up being an impact player for the drafting club.
I could be wrong on Clarke, but I thought it was a one-time barrier, but Rule 5 is something I know probably just well enough to screw everything up. Also interesting on Bote & Wieck, given that they’ve actually played in the bigs before. Bote is probably going to play another year in Iowa unless the Cubs just let him go. He could declare free agency, but he’s set to make $5.5M this year from the Cubs and then has a team option for 2025 with a $1M buyout. If he opts for free agency, he’s giving up that money and he won’t get that anywhere else. If a team picks him in the R5, if he’s truly eligible, they’re also picking up that contract.

Wieck would be a really unlikely R5 draft because he’s missed 2+ years with injury and the major component of keeping the player is that, if healthy, the player must be kept on the active roster all year and in the event of injury, the player must be active for at least 90 days, which can sometimes stretch into the next season. Obviously most of the focus will be on the Aliendo types or bullpen arms that a lesser team might be able to just stash on their bench/back end of the pen for a year.
 
Andy Green will not be retained by the Cubs. Counsel's bench coach with the Brewers has been denied permission to follow Counsel to the Cubs. It will be interesting to see if anyone is retained, and who fills out the staff.
I’ve heard that the rest of the Brewers staff is going to stay and work for Murphy in Milwaukee. Not sure if that‘s 100% by choice or perhaps by Milwaukee denying permission to some to talk to the Cubs.

Similar, but slightly different, than Breslow going to Boston with an agreement that he won’t hire anyone currently employed by the Cubs for one year. Since Boston got permission to talk, I’m sure that was hammered out as part of the agreement to let Breslow interview.
 
Yes, we don't overpay for one year of production.

I've read this story many times. Guys with great talent underperform, get stuck on a one year prove it deal, have a great year, sign huge real, then go back to underperforming.

It would be great to get Belli back on a reasonable deal, but don't let Boras hold the Cubs hostage here. I guarantee whoever signs Belli will overpay for what he will produce in the future.
Some of it depends on how long Boras/Bellinger hold. None of the big position players are signing before Shohei does, just as it’s unlikely many of the top starting pitchers sign before Yamamoto, who is expected to set the market. Lower tier guys may start to go at some point where there’s a clear fit or a guy has a clear preference and that team is interested, but those top guys are going to hold until the dominoes start falling. Today’s non-tender deadline might also flip a surprise guy or two into the FA pool, so things will start getting more clear very soon, especially if Shohei signs before Winter Meetings.
 
Heuer, Roberts and Hughes non-tendered.

All others tendered, including Wisdom, who is already signed for $2.725M.
 
Heuer, Roberts and Hughes non-tendered.

All others tendered, including Wisdom, who is already signed for $2.725M.
The Wisdom deal is fascinating. I thought he was a potential non-tender candidate and then not only wasn’t he non-tendered, he signed for $500K more than Spotrac had him projected for.
 
Brewers were never going to pay $11 million for someone who isn't gonna pitch in 2024. I'm guessing Burnes & possibly Williams get dealt before the season. Division should be wide open for the Cubs
With so many teams looking for pitching, they would be able to get a lot back for Burnes and/or Williams. What a world we live in where Woodruff will probably get a raise and not pitch next season.
 
With so many teams looking for pitching, they would be able to get a lot back for Burnes and/or Williams. What a world we live in where Woodruff will probably get a raise and not pitch next season.
It depends on how a deal is structured. 2-3 years with team options and I can see a lot of teams taking a flier on him being back to form in 2025. The AAV would not be crazy.
 
It depends on how a deal is structured. 2-3 years with team options and I can see a lot of teams taking a flier on him being back to form in 2025. The AAV would not be crazy.
Agree - lots of contract options on both the player and team side. 2-4 year deal with incentives and club options with maybe an opt-out stuck in there after year 2 (or 3 if it’s a 4-year deal). Very interesting guy to pursue, but so much of this stuff will fall into place after Ohtani signs wherever he signs.
 
Yamamoto has been posted. Teams now have 45 days to cut a deal with him. It was speculated on BN that they delayed the posting to create more space between Ohtani's signing, and when Yamamoto would have to sign, creating an urge for teams that missed on Ohtani to throw money at Yamamoto.
I'm not as confident on Yamamoto. I'd love him, but I think the Cubs are sneaky in on one of the second tier Japanese pitchers. like Imanaga or Matsui. And, Imanaga is 1A in my mind. He isn't Yamamoto, but he and Matsui both project really well to MLB.
 
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Yamamoto has been posted. Teams now have 45 days to cut a deal with him. It was speculated on BN that they delayed the posting to create more space between Ohtani's signing, and when Yamamoto would have to sign, creating an urge for teams that missed on Ohtani to throw money at Yamamoto.
I'm not as confident on Yamamoto. I'd love him, but I think the Cubs are sneaky in on one of the second tier Japanese pitchers. like Imanaga or Matsui. And, Imanaga is 1A in my mind. He isn't Yamamoto, but he and Matsui both project really well to MLB.
I’m signing Jordan Montgomery over any of the Japanese garbage.
 
Could be a nice piece of depth, and low cost. As mentioned he's been in Japan for four years, so he's got a track record, but he was there for a reason. If he still has velocity and figured out a few things he could be useful. The contract will tell us a lot.
 
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