Caliendo is probably the only real shot and that truly depends on what PSU hammer ends up at 165(if Teemer ends up being the guy at 157) As much as I would like that and even as good as this team looks, Teemer is probably the only other one with a decent shot and that also really hinges fully on whether or not 1 of the PSU hammers ends up at 157.
Ayala is probably the closest after that, but I don't see him being strong enough quite yet to pull it off at 133 and if 125 is that hard of a cut, I think Figs probably distances himself a bit next season.
Looking at it more, Parco actually could sneak into the best spot of the group, depending on his draw. I would still favor Henson over him and Van Ness could be a very tough obstacle, but 149 looks pretty open.
Still, if I had to pick best possible finishes(within reason) I would go:
125: Ayala-2nd with a less than 5% chance of winning it all. I like him a ton, but do not like the rumors about 125 being very tough to hold.
133: Peterson/Schriever-R12
141: Block-I have zero data to even guess at this one.
149: Parco-2nd Maybe a 2% chance at winning it all and probably much more likely 3rd-5th.
157: Teemer-1st(depending on who PSU puts here). I would go 10-20% chance at 1st with a solid 50-75% chance at top 3. If Haines stays at 157 or Mesenbrink ends up here, his chance go down to less than 1% to win it all.
165: Caliendo-1st Depending on who PSU puts here, I could legitimately put him as one of the top 5 favorites at any weight. I think he showed himself to be that good last year. With Carr, O'Toole and Mesenbrink out of the weight I think he is a significant favorite. If Haines ends up here, I think they would be 1A and 1B. If somehow Mesenbrink stays, his chances go down to single digits....
174: I could see any of the Brands/Arnold/Kennedy combo getting the right draw into the Finals, but I think O'Toole runs away with this weight. Brands probably has the best chance to make the Finals of the 3 with Arnold a close 2nd. Still, I would probably go with 3rd as the high end here so far.
184: I really hope it is Brands here. The other 2 could possibly sneak onto the podium, but I think Brands is the only one with enough size and firepower to handle this weight, unless Arnold has secretly been bulking up since he wrestled Plott. If Brands, I would say 2nd. If not low AA is about the high end.
197: Glazier showed a ton of heart, but also some significant limitations. With the right draw he could AA, but I still think he is most likely an R12 type guy.
285: Kueter is most likely battling Feldman and Schultz for mid-tier AA. I still think he is going to be a bit undersized for Kerkvliet and Hendrickson and still a bit raw for Bastida. I will say 4th for now.