I'd like to add at least one individual title to my list of expectations. It's time to get over the hump there. Spencer Lee being the only NCAA champion since 2017 is not good enough.
Caliendo is probably the only real shot and that truly depends on what PSU hammer ends up at 165(if Teemer ends up being the guy at 157) As much as I would like that and even as good as this team looks, Teemer is probably the only other one with a decent shot and that also really hinges fully on whether or not 1 of the PSU hammers ends up at 157.
Ayala is probably the closest after that, but I don't see him being strong enough quite yet to pull it off at 133 and if 125 is that hard of a cut, I think Figs probably distances himself a bit next season.
Looking at it more, Parco actually could sneak into the best spot of the group, depending on his draw. I would still favor Henson over him and Van Ness could be a very tough obstacle, but 149 looks pretty open.
Still, if I had to pick best possible finishes(within reason) I would go:
125: Ayala-2nd with a less than 5% chance of winning it all. I like him a ton, but do not like the rumors about 125 being very tough to hold.
133: Peterson/Schriever-R12
141: Block-I have zero data to even guess at this one.
149: Parco-2nd Maybe a 2% chance at winning it all and probably much more likely 3rd-5th.
157: Teemer-1st(depending on who PSU puts here). I would go 10-20% chance at 1st with a solid 50-75% chance at top 3. If Haines stays at 157 or Mesenbrink ends up here, his chance go down to less than 1% to win it all.
165: Caliendo-1st Depending on who PSU puts here, I could legitimately put him as one of the top 5 favorites at any weight. I think he showed himself to be that good last year. With Carr, O'Toole and Mesenbrink out of the weight I think he is a significant favorite. If Haines ends up here, I think they would be 1A and 1B. If somehow Mesenbrink stays, his chances go down to single digits....
174: I could see any of the Brands/Arnold/Kennedy combo getting the right draw into the Finals, but I think O'Toole runs away with this weight. Brands probably has the best chance to make the Finals of the 3 with Arnold a close 2nd. Still, I would probably go with 3rd as the high end here so far.
184: I really hope it is Brands here. The other 2 could possibly sneak onto the podium, but I think Brands is the only one with enough size and firepower to handle this weight, unless Arnold has secretly been bulking up since he wrestled Plott. If Brands, I would say 2nd. If not low AA is about the high end.
197: Glazier showed a ton of heart, but also some significant limitations. With the right draw he could AA, but I still think he is most likely an R12 type guy.
285: Kueter is most likely battling Feldman and Schultz for mid-tier AA. I still think he is going to be a bit undersized for Kerkvliet and Hendrickson and still a bit raw for Bastida. I will say 4th for now.
