I certainly appreciate good statistical arguments, but I think this one lacks a key piece of context. For most of women's basketball history, the sport has lacked parity. There have been a few elite teams every year, and the gap between the haves and the have nots has been pretty huge. You aren't going to find a ton of outlier profiles when the dominant teams are usually the only ones that make Final Fours.
This year, there just aren't many elite teams. South Carolina is elite, but they're arguably the only one. Stanford just lost to unranked USC. UConn can't stay healthy, and we played toe to toe with them on a neutral court when they were nearly as healthy as they're going to be this season.
Ohio State is another good example. The Buckeyes are #2 in the nation right now without their best player and with largely the same roster as last year. Iowa won't be favorites against Ohio State on Monday, but no one would be shocked if Iowa beats them.
I certainly don't think Iowa is likely to make the Final Four this year. This team has glaring flaws. But I don't think Iowa making a Final Four would be a complete shock either. Not in a year with so few truly elite teams.