Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
500 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024
WSR-88D radar images from Tampa and Key West show that Milton is a
sheared hurricane, with the heaviest precipitation to the north of
the center, and the eye open on the south side. This structure was
confirmed by a recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission,
where the eyewall was reported open to the southwest. The plane
reported that the pressure has risen during the past few hours, with
the latest center drop supporting a minimum pressure of 948 mb.
Based on this pressure, and the reduction of measured flight-level
winds, the intensity is estimated to be 105 kt. The highest
Doppler velocities from the Tampa radar have been between 100 and
105 kt.
Milton's recent motion has been northeastward (035 degrees) at
about 15 kt. Track model guidance continues to insist that the
hurricane will slow down a bit and turn more to the right very
soon, taking the center near or just south of Tampa Bay later this
evening. Milton's center is then expected to cross central Florida
and turn east-northeastward as it emerges over the western Atlantic.
Milton is likely to be right near the threshold of a major
hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida this
evening. Milton has grown in size today, particularly in the extent
of 34- and 50-kt winds to the northwest of the center, and the
northern eyewall appears most severe at the moment due to
southwesterly shear. As a result, significant wind impacts are
likely to occur north of the center, as well as to the south,
regardless of the exact intensity at landfall. There will likely be
a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall
location, however, the risk of devastating storm surge still
exists across much of the west-central and southwest coast of
Florida given the size of the storm.
Earlier scatterometer data suggested that Milton is already
beginning to interact with a frontal boundary, and global model
guidance suggests that the cyclone will become extratropical in
about 36 hours over the western Atlantic. This is reflected in the
new NHC forecast.
Key Messages:
1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest
inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the
west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. Near the coast the
surge will be accompanied by damaging waves. Water levels will rise
rapidly as the eye approaches, and strong onshore winds on the
backside of the hurricane will also cause a rapid rise in water as
the center makes landfall.
2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area.
Life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are
expected to spread inland across the peninsula and to portions of
the Florida east coast within the Hurricane Warning area tonight and
early Thursday. Residents should be prepared to take shelter in an
interior room, away from windows, as the core of the hurricane moves
across the central Florida Peninsula.
3. The risk of strong tornadoes will continue into the evening
hours across the southern and central portions of the Florida
Peninsula. Be prepared to take immediate shelter in an interior
room if a Tornado Warning is issued for your area.
4. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban
flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in
areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the
overall flood threat.