Hurricane season has arrived....
- Thread starter The Tradition
- Start date
If you are ever driving in the Boston area, make sure to hit malfunction junction in Chelmsford. The first time I drove through it was at night. I had no idea where I was going and it felt like I was driving through a parking lot. You won't get the full experience now because since the 20+ years ago when I drove it they have improved the intersection with more traffic lights and such. csb.
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Yes it was, but really I think the fact that NOLA is below sea level and was “protected” poorly by inadequate Corp of Engineers levees contributed to the enormous disaster overall.
Florida is going to break their 24hr tornado record. They are everywhere right now.
It's somewhat unusual to have so many tornados this size long running and visible associated with a tropical cyclone.
Just my own observation.
It's somewhat unusual to have so many tornados this size long running and visible associated with a tropical cyclone.
Just my own observation.
When we consider tornado risk we should not just consider the likelihood of a tornado striking a particular State. We should also consider the risks of death, injury and the costs of tornadoes for locations based on the size of the State.
The Disaster Center bases it's risk assessment by dividing the square mileage of each state against the frequency of death, injury, number of tornadoes, and cost of damages for each state. We then rank each State by these individual categories. We then add the total of each State's indiviual rankings and divided by the number of factors (four). The data used covers the period of 1950 -1995
The period of the data is somewhat limited, but the results are interesting. The fact's presented here challenge some present day assumptions about where tornado risk is greatest.
According to these metrics, Florida (#11) has a higher tornado risk than Iowa (#14).
https://www.disastercenter.com/tornado/rank.htm
Hurricane Hunters should draw a Pentagram if they want to increase their social media profile.
Thinking of all of you in Florida, this will be an all timer.
Our friends had 3 Gulf Front houses on the north end of Anna Maria and we rented out the oldest one because we loved its Old Florida charm- up on stilts built in the 40’s with a tin roof and tongue in groove Dade County Pine walls with a big old sleeping porch and jalousie windows all around. Shaded by big Australian Pines and walking distance to the Sandbar Restaurant (owned at one time by Lawton Chiles kids) but I bet it will be washed away. Just glad I have pictures. 😞
LOL...that in no way addresses your problem. Your SIL is IN the region that's short on fuel. And shifting that limited supply from here to there doesn't increase the availability in the region...which was your point:
No...they couldn't and they wouldn't.
It's been a few years since I've been down to the island. We went there for a day every year the first few years of me (and later we with the girlfriend and kids) started making a winter trip to my parents. Been to the Sandbar at least a few times. Found our first ever starfish on Manatee Beach. Gonna look a lot different next time we make it down there... Relieved our timeshare in Treasure Island and my mom's house in Sun City aren't going to take the direct hit that was predicted but it's not gonna be good for Anna Maria and Holmes beach....
You're conflating two events.
I pointed out a time that lower supplies in the SE led to shortages because the government threatened price increases, so supplies ran out at the coerced price. If they hadn't, suppliers could have charged more to bring in supplies from unaffected areas. The net result would be spreading the pain of higher prices across more people, and avoiding actual shortages.
For the current situation in Tampa, higher prices will economize current utilization, and higher prices will encourage supply after the event passes to get prices back well below what gasoline is actually worth to us.
History is unmistakably clear. If you want shortages, restrict price movement in response to supply and demand and you'll get your wish.
Real-time Wobble-Tracker looks like Milton is trying to hit a hole-in-one at Tampa....
Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
500 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024
WSR-88D radar images from Tampa and Key West show that Milton is a
sheared hurricane, with the heaviest precipitation to the north of
the center, and the eye open on the south side. This structure was
confirmed by a recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission,
where the eyewall was reported open to the southwest. The plane
reported that the pressure has risen during the past few hours, with
the latest center drop supporting a minimum pressure of 948 mb.
Based on this pressure, and the reduction of measured flight-level
winds, the intensity is estimated to be 105 kt. The highest
Doppler velocities from the Tampa radar have been between 100 and
105 kt.
Milton's recent motion has been northeastward (035 degrees) at
about 15 kt. Track model guidance continues to insist that the
hurricane will slow down a bit and turn more to the right very
soon, taking the center near or just south of Tampa Bay later this
evening. Milton's center is then expected to cross central Florida
and turn east-northeastward as it emerges over the western Atlantic.
Milton is likely to be right near the threshold of a major
hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida this
evening. Milton has grown in size today, particularly in the extent
of 34- and 50-kt winds to the northwest of the center, and the
northern eyewall appears most severe at the moment due to
southwesterly shear. As a result, significant wind impacts are
likely to occur north of the center, as well as to the south,
regardless of the exact intensity at landfall. There will likely be
a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall
location, however, the risk of devastating storm surge still
exists across much of the west-central and southwest coast of
Florida given the size of the storm.
Earlier scatterometer data suggested that Milton is already
beginning to interact with a frontal boundary, and global model
guidance suggests that the cyclone will become extratropical in
about 36 hours over the western Atlantic. This is reflected in the
new NHC forecast.
Key Messages:
1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest
inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the
west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. Near the coast the
surge will be accompanied by damaging waves. Water levels will rise
rapidly as the eye approaches, and strong onshore winds on the
backside of the hurricane will also cause a rapid rise in water as
the center makes landfall.
2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area.
Life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are
expected to spread inland across the peninsula and to portions of
the Florida east coast within the Hurricane Warning area tonight and
early Thursday. Residents should be prepared to take shelter in an
interior room, away from windows, as the core of the hurricane moves
across the central Florida Peninsula.
3. The risk of strong tornadoes will continue into the evening
hours across the southern and central portions of the Florida
Peninsula. Be prepared to take immediate shelter in an interior
room if a Tornado Warning is issued for your area.
4. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban
flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in
areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the
overall flood threat.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
500 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024
WSR-88D radar images from Tampa and Key West show that Milton is a
sheared hurricane, with the heaviest precipitation to the north of
the center, and the eye open on the south side. This structure was
confirmed by a recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission,
where the eyewall was reported open to the southwest. The plane
reported that the pressure has risen during the past few hours, with
the latest center drop supporting a minimum pressure of 948 mb.
Based on this pressure, and the reduction of measured flight-level
winds, the intensity is estimated to be 105 kt. The highest
Doppler velocities from the Tampa radar have been between 100 and
105 kt.
Milton's recent motion has been northeastward (035 degrees) at
about 15 kt. Track model guidance continues to insist that the
hurricane will slow down a bit and turn more to the right very
soon, taking the center near or just south of Tampa Bay later this
evening. Milton's center is then expected to cross central Florida
and turn east-northeastward as it emerges over the western Atlantic.
Milton is likely to be right near the threshold of a major
hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida this
evening. Milton has grown in size today, particularly in the extent
of 34- and 50-kt winds to the northwest of the center, and the
northern eyewall appears most severe at the moment due to
southwesterly shear. As a result, significant wind impacts are
likely to occur north of the center, as well as to the south,
regardless of the exact intensity at landfall. There will likely be
a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall
location, however, the risk of devastating storm surge still
exists across much of the west-central and southwest coast of
Florida given the size of the storm.
Earlier scatterometer data suggested that Milton is already
beginning to interact with a frontal boundary, and global model
guidance suggests that the cyclone will become extratropical in
about 36 hours over the western Atlantic. This is reflected in the
new NHC forecast.
Key Messages:
1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest
inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the
west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. Near the coast the
surge will be accompanied by damaging waves. Water levels will rise
rapidly as the eye approaches, and strong onshore winds on the
backside of the hurricane will also cause a rapid rise in water as
the center makes landfall.
2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area.
Life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are
expected to spread inland across the peninsula and to portions of
the Florida east coast within the Hurricane Warning area tonight and
early Thursday. Residents should be prepared to take shelter in an
interior room, away from windows, as the core of the hurricane moves
across the central Florida Peninsula.
3. The risk of strong tornadoes will continue into the evening
hours across the southern and central portions of the Florida
Peninsula. Be prepared to take immediate shelter in an interior
room if a Tornado Warning is issued for your area.
4. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban
flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in
areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the
overall flood threat.
I’m conflating nothing. I responded to your original post about shortages in the SE and YOU brought your SIL into it. As I stated, that does not one thing to address the problems with your original “plan”. You really think there would be a continuous flow of tanker trucks into the SE because stations there jacked their prices to double or triple the national avg? That’s what it would take to have even a small effect. And what would happen to the stations in the unaffected regions losing their deliveries? There’s not some unlimited supply of tankers waiting to be pressed into service.
And - as was pointed out earlier - companies are not going to be sending trucks into a hurricane area as everyone else is being told to evacuate but let’s suppose they did. One truck could supply a day’s worth of fuel to a small station…two or three trucks for the larger ones. Awesome. What happens tomorrow? And what are the people in the panhandle going to say when their fuel is being diverted to Tampa to gouge the people there?
Your plan is dumb. And unworkable. In any aspect. The stations in the affected area have the gas in their tanks. They can sell it at market rates or they can gouge a few hundred people before they run out. That’s it.
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