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Hurricane season has arrived....

1 pm spaghetti models.


HWFI model guy be like:

giphy.webp
 
That's a real slow mover on that forecast cone. 48 hours to cross from the Gulf to the Atlantic? And then not moving north very much for additional 24 hours? That means LOTS of rain over north Florida and south Georgia.

See today’s update from Dr Cowan. There are several variables around the FL/GA line. It could stall, could slowly move out into the Atlantic or it could loop back to the west

The BAU for this storm is waiting a long time to figure out what will happen
 


Aircraft reconnaissance data from
@NOAA_HurrHunter
within Tropical Storm #Debby shows a still weak circulation west of the Florida Keys with no well-defined, compact ring of maximum winds yet. Intensification will be slow as opposed to rapid until this changes. However, at least 36 hours before landfall in northern Florida could be enough time for Debby to become a hurricane, and residents should prepare accordingly.
 


TS #Debby remains very lopsided this morning, with most of the rain on the East side. Some shear and dry air to the west is preventing it from becoming fully symmetric. Probably won't see significant intensification unless it wraps around and forms a symmetric eyewall, but strong winds will spread along the west coast of Florida through the morning.
 
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Latest update has it increased to 60 mph. This better not make CAT 1 soon because it will mean it will be 2-3 at landfall as it is over bath water the next 24 hours. It is still lopsided so hopefully it will be slow
 
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Latest update has it increased to 60 mph. This better not make CAT 1 soon because it will mean it will be 2-3 at landfall as it is over bath water the next 24 hours. It is still lopsided so hopefully it will be slow

When do you think they announce state offices closed in Leon county…

giphy.webp
 
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Tots and Pears. Just don't be stupid and drive through water. Deaths from this storm will likely come from drowning.


Funny, I am supposed to drive across that path tomorrow. Guess I will have to delay driving to the in-laws. Aww man.....

In theory, it is threading the needle between where I am now and where we are going (Orlando).
 
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Flying out of Ft Myers tomorrow evening with connection in ATL. Should be able to take off but not sure what winds will be looking like in ATL.
 
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Counties that have announced office closures for Monday, August 5, 2024:
  • Columbia
  • Dixie
  • Franklin
  • Gadsden (Schools)
  • Hamilton
  • Jefferson (Schools)
  • Leon
  • Madison
  • Wakulla
 
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Recon data from #Debby showing max surface winds around 60 mph and the initial development of a more compact inner core wind field. The core remains asymmetric and a little dry air is mixing in, but Debby looks on its way to becoming a hurricane before landfall in a little under 24 hours.Heavy rains are drenching the western Florida Peninsula, with flash flood warnings popping up in spots. These bands are also generating occasionally severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes. Be careful today!
 
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