*****Official Cubs 2022 thread*****
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Their biggest issue was pitching. Miley, Hendricks, and Stroman are a much improved 1,2,3 on paper— in no particular order over 2021. I think you’ll see Alzolay and Steele get a chance to start— though Alzolay did look good out of the pen. Hitting wasn’t great, but got better in the second half of the year. You also add Madrigal and get Hoerner back to fill the 4 and 6 spots. Plus they may add another bat or two in the OF, but I think they’ll roll with Bote/Wisdom at 5 and maybe Schwindel at 3 if they think 2021 wasn’t a fluke.
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Paying him like he is a 3 to 4 WAR pitcher. Not seeing any meat on the bone for the Cubs. Not particularly durable either. But if he was he'd be a 125 M plus commitment.
You are a miserable f***, but, you are our miserable f***, I guess.
Hoyer’s a fvcking dick head.
How many superstars has he gotten with all the cash he saved?
How are all these game-changing acquisitions he’s made so far going to make the Cubs World Series contenders in 2022?
It's early in the process. But I will agree it is better than I thought they'd do.
I am betting that Jordan Hicks will be in the majors next season. This is also the make or break year for Marquez. In order to maximize him I think he will be in the pen.
Brennan Davis is an impact player in the making. High A and AA are flooded with high ceiling prospects after the trade deadline massacre, and the Darvish trade. DGORDO is correct, 2023 is going to be a competitive year, and like signing Jon Lester a year before they expected to be good, it was important to lock down a starter.
I don’t think they’re done this offseason, either. With Stroman, the Cubs payroll sits at a whopping $93M. I don’t know that they go huge on someone like Correa or KB, but I could absolutely see them sign multiple guys for $10-20M for 3-5 years.
The Cubs sit today with a passable (not great) rotation, some good top-of-the-order bats who can get on base. Some potential power guys if what we saw in 2021 is who they are. There are still guys out on the FA market who could make a solid difference for the Cubs and as has been indicated in this thread, the Cubs have a lot of high-upside guys coming up in the mid-range of the minor league system that could be trade bait if there are trade Partners available.
The Cubs sit today with a passable (not great) rotation, some good top-of-the-order bats who can get on base. Some potential power guys if what we saw in 2021 is who they are. There are still guys out on the FA market who could make a solid difference for the Cubs and as has been indicated in this thread, the Cubs have a lot of high-upside guys coming up in the mid-range of the minor league system that could be trade bait if there are trade Partners available.
There seems to be some decent rumoring that the Cubs were well along in talks with Correa. The decent thing about him (And, why I wouldn't have minded keeping Javy), is that he projects well to move to another position if needed. Not optimal given the money he will require, but at least he wouldn't age poorly and weigh you down.
From what I’ve heard, they weren’t that far along with Correa. The Cubs aren’t done and look for post-lockout moves that get the Cubs closer to having a chance at the last wild card spot as opposed to signing a guy like Correa or anyone else that would receive a long, pricy contract.
Maybe they get Correa and maybe they don’t, but if it’s a long contract, I don’t really see the obstacle to signing it now. The Cubs aren’t 5 years away. Correa is 27 and I would expect him to be a productive player into his 30s. If the Cubs expect to compete in 2023-25, there’s no reason not to sign him now. Because he’s position flexible, he’s not going to be a major obstacle blocking one of their high-ceiling SS prospects if it comes to that.
The kind of deal the Cubs were absolutely not going to sign was an aging vet (Scherzer, for instance), who probably only has 2-3 significant years left and wants to win immediately. Correa’s shelf life absolutely plays into the Cubs plans.
I like Correa and would love to see him on the Cubs. That said, I think he ends up with the Yankees and the only way the Cubs get him is if other options aren’t there for Correa and he is open to a shorter deal with opt-outs. We’ll see.
Why would the Cubs push for opt outs? The Hayward deal will end in two years, and the payroll has more than enough flexibility to add Correa for the long term. The Cubs literally have no big, long term deals to contend with except Heyward's. Even Hendrick's is manageable.
I was just thinking of contracts that are cinder blocks chained around the team's neck. For a starting pitcher Stroman's deal is pretty good. Beyond a motivational speech in 2016 Heyward's has been a disaster
Oh, I get that. I was just pointing out the reality that after having it be such a huge thing hanging for so long that we’re now getting to a point where other contracts are bigger/longer. Hopefully the Cubs add a couple more after the lockout.
That’s just silly. Nobody wants a Heyward deal, specifically, but if you’re closing yourself off to all large contracts, then there is a class of player that you will just never, ever sign. You won’t lock up your own up-and-coming stars and you will never grab the biggest FAs on the market. As a major market team, that would be an absolute failure for the Cubs.
That doesn’t mean that you toss huge money out to fading players, but let’s look at what Jason Heyward was at the time the Cubs signed him:
- 26 years old
- Coming off a steady uptick in offensive production, including an increase in power and driving the ball
- 3 Gold Gloves
- A guy with a great reputation for leadership
They key is, Jason Heyward can’t lead to knee jerk reactions where the Cubs simply decide they’re not playing in that space. They have the flexibility to handle a bad contract. Hell, at some point, you’re going to sign a great player to big money and it’s absolutely the right decision until they have some fluke injury. It happens. I could argue that what *really* set the Cubs back was the year they felt forced to bring Hamels back for $20M and the first year of Darvish’s contract when hey basically got nothing out of him. That’s really the key - the Cubs can swallow a bad contract - they just can’t swallow 2-4 all at once.
Heyward can’t be the reason the Cubs never sign another elite player coming into his prime to a long-term deal.
Hey, it’s not like he didn’t contribute anything.We will always have the Game 7 Rain Delay speech!
Good post and I agree. The problem is the Ricketts want to pretend like they aren't a major market team... except when it comes to how much money they can get from their fans where clearly they think they are in a league of their own. True fans should stay away until they demonstrate they are serious about winning again and not just buying up Wrigleyville
How have they not acted like a large market team since the rebuild? Let’s be honest, trading Darvish was 100% the correct move as was trading Bryant, Baez, and Rizzo. Sometimes even large market teams need a small reset.
That’s somehow become a fan narrative, but it’s simply not true in reality. From the time the Ricketts took over, the payroll declined at first (getting rid of a lot of the bad contracts carried over from the Trib area) and then started ramping up. by the time they were competitive, the Cubs spent at/over the tax thresholds most years:
2015: Spent $133M, Tax at $189M (70% of tax threshold)
2016: Spent $184M, Tax at $189M (97% of tax threshold)
2017: Spent $172M, Tax at $195M (88% of tax threshold)
2018: Spent $194M, Tax at $197M (98% of tax threshold)
2019: Spent $221M, Tax at $206M (107% of tax threshold)
2020: Spent $86M in Covid shortened season, I think pro-rating the tax threshold was around 85%, which puts them at 101% of tax threshold (they were projected as over prior to the season)
2021: Spent $144M, Tax at $210M (69% of tax threshold)
I really don’t expect the Cubs to come in much less than 80% of the tax threshold or whatever other sort of line the new CBA draws. This year, the tax threshold was projected to hold at $210M and the Cubs are currently committed to $99M. That’s using $8M and $7.5M arb projections for Happ and Contreras and it’s obviously pending locking in a lot of their cost-controlled players for smaller amounts. If the Cubs filled out the rest of their roster with league minimum guys or guys making slightly more, they probably add another $20M and go into 2022 with a payroll of roughly $120M. I absolutely do not expect that.
80% of the $210M luxury tax threshold would be $168M. Looking at the 40-man, the Cubs have 10 guys making up that $99M commitment. Let’s say they fill 15 roster spots (minor league shuttle relievers, bench guys, young starters) at $575k each, that’s just under $9M. That leaves 15 roster spots. Let’s say another 10 are filled with guys making more than league minimum, averaging $1.5M, that’s $15M and now the Cubs are at $122M. That still leaves 5 roster spots and $46M to only be at 80% of the tax threshold.
That certainly gives them the space to go get KB or Correa for even $30M per year and still room to sign 4 more guys at an average of $3-4M each. Or, you get one of those big guys plus Castellanos or Schwarber (especially if there’s a DH) and go cheap on the remaining spots. The Cubs absolutely have runway to spend — and if they’re going to compete in 2023, the building needs to start now.
All,
Those of you who have been in these threads probably know that since early 2018, I was extremely critical of Theo Epstein and Jason McLeod, predicting that the team would be in shambles by 2021 due to their ineptitude in drafting and player development (particularly around pitching).
I wanted to make a point to come in here and praise the work that Jed Hoyer has done at the helm of the Cubs.
Here is what Jed inherited:
1. A position player core that had peaked out
2. A bottom 5 farm system (possibly the worst in the game)
3. The Jason Heyward contract
4. A roster that appeared to have .500 talent
5. Ownership that had suffered greater pandemic-related financial losses due to their investment in ballpark-area real estate.
Here is what Jed has done since:
1. Traded Yu Darvish at the very top of his market. Yu was spectacular from mid-2019 through the end of 2020. He is also in his mid-30's, with a history of being unable to string 2-3 good seasons in a row. Jed found a team that was all-in (Padres) and traded Yu (and his contract) for some young, high upside prospects. Yu was decent (not great) for the Padres, and the early reports on the young prospects are great.
2. Acquired spare parts to put together a team that could potentially catch lightning in a bottle and compete in a division that doesn't have a World Series type of team. The team played very well through Fathers Day, and then regressed towards the mean, but he gave his core guys (Bryant, Rizzo, Baez) one more chance to make a run.
3. When it became clear that this team would not compete, Jed showed that he does not have a sentimental bone in his body, and did the following:
5. Analysts raved about the returns that Hoyer was able to get for his franchise icons, who were largely rentals to the teams that acquired them.
6. HIred Carter Hawkins to be his GM. Hawkins has worked for years at Vanderbilt and then with Cleveland -- the two best pitcher development organizations in the US. A welcome change from the Jason McLeod clown show.
7. Signed Marcus Stroman to a deal that has very little downside.
Another thing that Hoyer emphasized is that each of the franchise icons who were traded away (Baez, Bryant, Rizzo) were at one point offered an extension from the Cubs, and he expressed confidence that following free agency, all would see that the Cubs offer would stack up very favorably with what the player would eventually get from another team. Here is what we have seen so far:
Those of you who have been in these threads probably know that since early 2018, I was extremely critical of Theo Epstein and Jason McLeod, predicting that the team would be in shambles by 2021 due to their ineptitude in drafting and player development (particularly around pitching).
I wanted to make a point to come in here and praise the work that Jed Hoyer has done at the helm of the Cubs.
Here is what Jed inherited:
1. A position player core that had peaked out
2. A bottom 5 farm system (possibly the worst in the game)
3. The Jason Heyward contract
4. A roster that appeared to have .500 talent
5. Ownership that had suffered greater pandemic-related financial losses due to their investment in ballpark-area real estate.
Here is what Jed has done since:
1. Traded Yu Darvish at the very top of his market. Yu was spectacular from mid-2019 through the end of 2020. He is also in his mid-30's, with a history of being unable to string 2-3 good seasons in a row. Jed found a team that was all-in (Padres) and traded Yu (and his contract) for some young, high upside prospects. Yu was decent (not great) for the Padres, and the early reports on the young prospects are great.
2. Acquired spare parts to put together a team that could potentially catch lightning in a bottle and compete in a division that doesn't have a World Series type of team. The team played very well through Fathers Day, and then regressed towards the mean, but he gave his core guys (Bryant, Rizzo, Baez) one more chance to make a run.
3. When it became clear that this team would not compete, Jed showed that he does not have a sentimental bone in his body, and did the following:
- Traded the spare parts (Joc Pedersen, Jake Marisnick, Andrew Chafin) for lottery tickets.
- Traded Kris Bryant and received Caleb Killian, who has drawn rave reviews in the Arizona Fall League. Most believe he can be at worst a #3 starter in MLB, which instantly makes him the Cubs best pitching prospect. The Giants have no interest in re-signing Bryant.
- Traded 2+ months of Javy Baez to the Mets for their 2020 first round prospect.
- Traded the Captain (Anthony Rizzo) for some nice prospects from the Yankees.
- Traded Craig Kimbrel at the absolute top of his market (will never get higher) for Nick Madrigal, who possesses a skillset that the Cubs have lacked. Kimbrel pitched terribly for the White Sox.
5. Analysts raved about the returns that Hoyer was able to get for his franchise icons, who were largely rentals to the teams that acquired them.
6. HIred Carter Hawkins to be his GM. Hawkins has worked for years at Vanderbilt and then with Cleveland -- the two best pitcher development organizations in the US. A welcome change from the Jason McLeod clown show.
7. Signed Marcus Stroman to a deal that has very little downside.
Another thing that Hoyer emphasized is that each of the franchise icons who were traded away (Baez, Bryant, Rizzo) were at one point offered an extension from the Cubs, and he expressed confidence that following free agency, all would see that the Cubs offer would stack up very favorably with what the player would eventually get from another team. Here is what we have seen so far:
- Javy Baez signed a 6-year, $140M deal with Detroit. He reportedly turned down a $180M extension from the Cubs prior to the pandemic in 2020. This contract will likely be ugly by year 3 as Javy's game is unlikely to age well.
- Anthony Rizzo was reportedly offered a 5-year, $70M extension by the Cubs, which he declined. From what I have read, he is unlikely to receive a better deal than this -- perhaps he will get higher AAV, but not out to 5 years. His back is a concern as he is now 32 years old.
- It's unclear what Kris Bryant was offered by the Cubs (and when), but the $300M megadeal that he and Boras likely thought he would get 3-4 years ago will not be happening.
Time will tell how Jed Hoyer does, but I would give him an F thus far. I expect the Cubs to compete every single goddamn year!
I still disagree with you that the Cubs’ outcome to 2021 was inevitable, but no doubt management played it badly and did end up in that same spot. I do also agree with your read on the moves. When it’s all said and done, the Darvish trade will either be seen as a massive Cub victory or largely irrelevant. I think Darvish will have good streaks for the remainder of his contract, but will likely struggle to remain healthy.
The trades of the key core was shocking in the sense that it happened in the span of about 48 hours, but the Cubs do appear to have gotten a good haul and I like a lot of the things the Cubs have been doing in the pitching development area and getting Hawkins should further help.
My expectation (and I’ll preface this by saying that it’s contingent on having a labor deal and then what’s in it) is that the Cubs will spend at a moderate to above-average level as a team. The Cubs are certainly not “all-in” for 2022, but if there’s a realistic deal to be had even on a guy like Correa, they should do it. The Cubs are certainly in position to expect to contend in 2023, so it’s not like they’d be wasting the bulk of his prime. That said, I don’t necessarily expect a Correa-type signing, but I could certainly still see them go get some more 1-4 year high AAV deals to get some potential lightning in a bottle or guys they could flip if the season doesn’t pan out. The Brewers will start as the division favorites, most likely, but there’s still not a team in this division that is a WS slam dunk - it’s winnable without being a 100-win team.
For a franchise to compete every single year, they need to do the following (in no certain order):
- Drafting and player development
- Running a top-half of MLB payroll
- Getting your young talent to sign team-friendly extensions (more of a luxury)
There are only three franchises (I believe) that have not had a sub-.500 season since 2013:
- Dodgers: the gold standard. They started spending big around 2012 and 2013, and then built a player development machine that is the envy of MLB. They put the Cubs to shame in this department, which is why they were able to keep the party going year after year.
- Cardinals: phenomenal at player development. What's interesting though is that since 2015, they have had a number of good teams, but no great teams that looked like legitimate World Series contenders. I think they are about to hit a crossroads around 2023 as their roster is very old, and their farm system (particularly pitching) is weaker than its been in sometimes.
- Yankees: they are the Yankees, but they are also a well-run organization.
Because Epstein and McLeod were so lousy at their jobs (post 2016), the day of reckoning was going to come at some point. Hoyer decided to make it happen as soon as possible.
Hoyer was Cubs Executive VP and general manager from October 2011 to November 2020. According to the Cubs organization chart Hoyer and McCleod were on the same line, both reporting directly to Epstein. Jesse Rogers (ESPN) in an article immediately following Hoyer's promotion said "decision-making was nearly equal between Epstein and Hoyer..."
It's not exactly as if Hoyer was selling popcorn in the stands and had no influence in the product from top to bottom. Giving Hoyer a 100% pass is foolish. If the Cubs are not competing for the National League Central this year, then it's all on Hoyer.
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I was talking recently and currently, since the Darvish trade. No doubt they went all in to win the WS and they definitely tried through 18 but since it has been pretty clear the have been focused on undoing Theo's mistakes and developing more revenue streams in and around Wrigley.... Not going all in to win like others teams have. Teams with more affordable tickets than the Cubs which includes everyone. They could have thrown more money at their problems like other franchises. they chose not to
Big market teams (that care about winning consistently) don't gut themselves like the cubs just did and they don't cry poor to the media like the Ricketts have. Hopefully they get the message that they already put the fan base through a long, miserable rebuild and fans just won't be nearly as patient. They did need to restock the farm, Theo screwed us there. I just hope it's a more balanced approach but they start spending again too soon. I like what they have done with Miley and Stroman, we shall see what happens before season starts
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I think it’s less that they sat on their hands (they did not - they spent $20M on Cole Hamels in 2019 in hopes of fixing a broken rotation, for instance) it’s that, to quote @Hime_Peterson above, Theo never addressed his “winner’s trap” - it’s less that they ignored holes and more that they thought the holes would fill themselves, as they had young players they believed in.
Let’s look at the 2018-2019 Cubs position by position (non-pitchers):
C: Contreras
1B: Rizzo
2B: Zobrist (end of career), Murphy, Bote, etc.
SS: Baez
3B: Bryant
LF: Variety, but largely Schwarber
CF: A lot of Almora
RF: Heyward plus some others
Look at that lineup, there’s room for improvement, but outside of maybe 2B or CF, there really wasn’t any position to go big without breaking up the young guys that came up together. Theo was never willing to cut bait on Almora or Schwarber until it was too late - and all these guys were getting significantly more expensive as a package each year.
The Cubs simply weren’t producing holes to be filled. Rizzo, Baez, KB, Schwarber and Almora were all locked up for the same amount of time. As previously laid out, to compete consistently, you have to constantly extend your winning window by re-mixing your core and Theo never did that, leaving everything to Hoyer, who is largely trying to do it all at once.
In an ideal world, the Cubs would have more aggressively gone at these guys for extensions. Not to extend them all, but to identify 1-3 to lock in and build around and then explore possibilities of trading others for missing pieces. Be willing to sign a guy over Almora or trade Schwarber to the AL. I think Hoyer has a lot at his disposal to build a winner and I hope as he does, he keeps a more locked-on view of the long game and doesn’t fall too in love with the guys he has such that he’s blinded to their weaknesses or that he’s handcuffed himself.
On a separate note, after years on the list, I got the call for season tickets. Unfortunately, will not take advantage of this opportunity.
I got the call in 2020 and took the plunge. The first year was obviously a washout, but with full refund. I improved my seats last year and went to a few games and sold all but 3-4 games and was close enough to break even that I’m staying in. The Cubs (and Hawks) have always been my first love, win or lose, so the tickets mean more to me than current ownership, the team on the field this year, etc. I may not always feel this way, but that’s how I feel right now. It’s something I want to share with my kids and, hopefully someday, my grandkids.
Thanks for the feedback. I am afraid of not being able to resell and then with the lockout, who knows what will happen. If I knew I could break even, I would do it in a heartbeat.
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