Who's Getting the Fall COVID Vaccine?
- Thread starter What Would Jesus Do?
- Start date
Agreed. But here's a question I've never seen addressed. Maybe you know the answer.
Excluding the high risk groups, is there ever a point where the combined risk of vax and virus is higher than the risk posed by the virus alone?
Let me flesh that out, in case it wasn't as clear as it sounded in my head.
We now live in a nation where most people have had vaccines or virus or both. The omicron strains are so infectious that people are saying that even if you've dodged it so far, you're going to get it. And even if you've already had COVID, you're likely to get it again.
So we have a situation where the risks posed by the vaccine are not instead of the risks of the virus - as was largely the case early in the pandemic - but now must be added to the risks of the virus.
Let's make up some numbers....
Risk of harm from the vaccine = 1
Risk of harm from the virus if you have been vaccinated = 5
Risk of harm from the virus if you have not been vaccinated = 10
With those numbers, getting vaccinated is a no-brainer. If you get vaxxed AND catch COVID, you are still clearly better off that if you didn't get vaxxed and catch COVID.
I'm not claiming that those numbers accurately reflect reality early in the pandemic, but I thinks they're close enough for conversation.
What about now?
Risk of harm from the vaccine = 1
Risk of harm from the virus if you have been vaccinated = 2
Risk of harm from the virus if you have not been vaccinated = 3
Again, I'm not claiming accuracy, but I think that's more like today, and a fair comparison with the other number set.
With those numbers, if you get vaccinated AND you catch the virus, your total risk is just as great as if you don't get vaccinated and catch the virus. No longer the easy call. And whereas you might have gotten vaxxed early in the pandemic and dodged the virus, that's much less likely to happen now.
At some point the declining risk from the virus should change our thinking about the need to get vaxxed. Are we there yet? Hard to tell.
Probably Costco, actually. Went there on a busy afternoon to pick up a couple things for BBQ weekend.
Huh?
The point is, your immunity to new variants wanes over time.
Whether you had an infection, or a vaccine.
A recent vaccine, like a recent infection, is more protective. Getting vaccinated BEFORE you got exposed to the virus was protective of severe disease AND of Long Covid.
I was current on my vaccines, including bi-valent, but it was last October (I think) I had that shot; ergo, my immunity had waned and I was able to contract the virus. But I had a fairly mild case, with a fever for 2-3 days, and only had a day or two I lost my sense of taste. Absent those recent vaccine boosts, I'd have probably had a lot worse case. It felt like a moderate flu; a couple relatives who got Covid, before vaccines were out, got a lot sicker than I did, and both lost their sense of taste for many weeks. My vaccine boosts prevented that inconvenience for me.
I've stated it for you many times: annual, or bi-annual Covid vaccines are likely to be the norm, because this virus hides itself from your immune system, and your immune system isn't as primed against it when your last infection or vaccine was 8-12 months ago.
If newer variants become less lethal, then more people will skip vaccines; if we get another Delta, then people would be wise to get an updated vaccine. No one knows how this virus will mutate next, and vaccination policies will follow the observations and science.
"protection against severe disease remained high for all variants, with 90·2% (69·7–97·5) for ancestral, alpha, and delta variants, and 88·9% (84·7–90·9) for omicron BA.1 at 40 weeks."
"Protection from past infection against re-infection from pre-omicron variants was very high and remained high even after 40 weeks. Protection was substantially lower for the omicron BA.1 variant and declined more rapidly over time than protection against previous variants. Protection from severe disease was high for all variants. The immunity conferred by past infection should be weighed alongside protection from vaccination when assessing future disease burden from COVID-19, providing guidance on when individuals should be vaccinated, and designing policies that mandate vaccination for workers or restrict access, on the basis of immune status, to settings where the risk of transmission is high, such as travel and high-occupancy indoor settings."
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)02465-5/fulltext
Seems there are emerging studies about problems with the vaccines.
https://www.science.org/content/art...and-long-covid-illness-starts-gain-acceptance
COVID-19 vaccines have saved millions of lives, and the world is gearing up for a new round of boosters. But like all vaccines, those targeting the coronavirus can cause side effects in some people, including rare cases of abnormal blood clotting and heart inflammation. Another apparent complication, a debilitating suite of symptoms that resembles Long Covid, has been more elusive, its link to vaccination unclear and its diagnostic features ill-defined. But in recent months, what some call Long Vax has gained wider acceptance among doctors and scientists, and some are now working to better understand and treat its symptoms.
“You see one or two patients and you wonder if it’s a coincidence,” says Anne Louise Oaklander, a neurologist and researcher at Harvard Medical School. “But by the time you’ve seen 10, 20,” she continues, trailing off. “Where there’s smoke, there’s fire.”
Cases seem very rare—far less common than Long Covid after infection. Symptoms can include persistent headaches, severe fatigue, and abnormal heart rate and blood pressure. They appear hours, days, or weeks after vaccination and are difficult to study. But researchers and clinicians are increasingly finding some alignment with known medical conditions. One is small fiber neuropathy, a condition Oaklander studies, in which nerve damage can cause tingling or electric shock–like sensations, burning pain, and blood circulation problems. The second is a more nebulous syndrome, with symptoms sometimes triggered by small fiber neuropathy, called postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS). It can involve muscle weakness, swings in heart rate and blood pressure, fatigue, and brain fog.
https://www.science.org/content/art...and-long-covid-illness-starts-gain-acceptance
COVID-19 vaccines have saved millions of lives, and the world is gearing up for a new round of boosters. But like all vaccines, those targeting the coronavirus can cause side effects in some people, including rare cases of abnormal blood clotting and heart inflammation. Another apparent complication, a debilitating suite of symptoms that resembles Long Covid, has been more elusive, its link to vaccination unclear and its diagnostic features ill-defined. But in recent months, what some call Long Vax has gained wider acceptance among doctors and scientists, and some are now working to better understand and treat its symptoms.
“You see one or two patients and you wonder if it’s a coincidence,” says Anne Louise Oaklander, a neurologist and researcher at Harvard Medical School. “But by the time you’ve seen 10, 20,” she continues, trailing off. “Where there’s smoke, there’s fire.”
Cases seem very rare—far less common than Long Covid after infection. Symptoms can include persistent headaches, severe fatigue, and abnormal heart rate and blood pressure. They appear hours, days, or weeks after vaccination and are difficult to study. But researchers and clinicians are increasingly finding some alignment with known medical conditions. One is small fiber neuropathy, a condition Oaklander studies, in which nerve damage can cause tingling or electric shock–like sensations, burning pain, and blood circulation problems. The second is a more nebulous syndrome, with symptoms sometimes triggered by small fiber neuropathy, called postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS). It can involve muscle weakness, swings in heart rate and blood pressure, fatigue, and brain fog.
Yep.
And that's why people will probably need annual, or bi-annual boosters.
No matter how many times that gets repeated, or how many studies you read which are telling you immunity "rapidly declines over time" for some of the variants, it just don't seem to sink in.
Yep
And the vaccines are already established to reduce the risks for Long Covid.
Ergo, they are a better bet, and always have been.
Do you guys even READ what you post?
Except you said you’re not getting your booster, because you’re going to rely on the superior immunity granted by actually having Covid.
Which is the decision many wanted to make for themselves, but weren’t allowed to, and you’re now taking advantage of it for yourself.
No; I'm expecting that relying on the RECENT immunity granted by an infection won't require a fall vaccine.
And I also clarified for you that I'll ask my PCP what he recommends. In case that wasn't clear.
I get a fall flu shot every year, and anticipated Covid shots would likewise be annual, or bi-annual. And I got a bivalent Covid shot last year, so wasn't necessarily expecting to need another one this year (again, unless my physician recommends it)
It's unfortunate, that here in the Summer of 2023, you continue to track your activities to the point of being able to identify the location where you contracted covid...
Really? I simply made a guess, based on the most recent place I was at with large crowds.
Other than that, I have no idea.
No; I pointed out something you didn't bother to review.
And you look silly trying to defend it.
Medical "money" recommendation. Strange to think your body can't handle new strains of the same virus. How in the world have we survived as a human race! Once again what's the booster uptick Joe? Why wouldn't you get a booster every month Joe? You like dealing with negative efficacy Joe?
You. Are. An. IDIOT!
Happens ALL THE TIME with the flu.
In fact, there have been several severe flu pandemics (including 1918) that humans "did not handle too well".
Meanwhile....there are university consortiums creating very inexpensive Covid vaccines, including one effort to make one that will work against any current Covid variant.
LOL!!! Nice job answering any of the questions bonehead. You are an idiot.
You're welcome
Glad I could inform you on how past influenza variants killed so many people who's immune systems were not prepared for them.
LMAO, you have no idea what you're talking about as usual. I think you should get a booster a month, bonehead. They are so useful!
LOLWUT?
1918 flu killed 60M people.
You claiming their immune systems were "prepared" for "just another flu"?
Your "link" goes to some crackpot site that isn't doing any actual science; if they have any, link their peer-reviewed publications.
..." there is not a level of antibody that has been established to protect an individual."
Which is why vaccine boosts are still going to be recommended this fall. Definitely for older people. Most likely for all adults. Of course, if there isn't a new outbreak of Covid, they could certainly shift gears.
Not a crackpot site moron. Love how you never look at the data, just call out the site or the person. You're a buffoon. 1918 didn't have the level of treatment available we have today you idiot. Talk about a LOLWUT moment. You don't know how to think critically.
Again: your claim here is that 1918 flu was one "our immune systems were prepared for".
Which is idiotic.
Nor were our immune systems "ready" for Covid, which is why it killed so many people in the first months. NO ONE KNEW HOW TO TREAT IT.
Meanwhile....
Noting that ER visits do not necessarily correlate to hospitalizations...
But this spike also isn't happening in the dead of winter here...during peak respiratory-virus seasons...
Noting that ER visits do not necessarily correlate to hospitalizations...
But this spike also isn't happening in the dead of winter here...during peak respiratory-virus seasons...
I'm going to get the covid vaccine on September 15 then the flu shot in October.
I love vaccines!
They're a miracle.
I love vaccines!
They're a miracle.
Kids should get Covid when they are young, so they can develop natural immunity that will last their entire lives.
Right now through the fall is when the largest spike had come each of the last 3 years. You all should probably mask up since they work so well.
Right now through the fall is when the largest spike had come each of the last 3 years. You all should probably mask up since they work so well.
Vaccines are the result of science, and quite the opposite of miracles.
By definition science is not a miracle. A miracle is something that has no scientific explanation.
You can, of course, use the term miracle in its more figurative sense.
That's what I do sometimes.
I'll allow it.
FUNFACT: Kids will NOT get "immunity" to Covid that "lasts their entire lives".
Highly unlikely I'll get a fall covid vaccine, but will likely get my annual flu shot.
That said, a related question out of curiosity: in your area, what seems to be the current practice with respect to public masking? (Last week I was in NC and saw none, and this morning on my bus ride to work, I'd estimate 50% masking rate.)
That said, a related question out of curiosity: in your area, what seems to be the current practice with respect to public masking? (Last week I was in NC and saw none, and this morning on my bus ride to work, I'd estimate 50% masking rate.)
I rarely see masks around D.C.
I like them myself because I can remain anonymous. 👍
Ha!
Seriously though, really? Cause my bus ride was Arlington to DC this morning.
