Hawks-Penn St

[Neo_Hawk]

That’s a very good take. I would move 197 and heavy to a lean Iowa but I can see both sides. I will be very surprised is Cass loses though.

I would be surprised too, but haven't seen a big sample of Nevils and that fosu match was an odd one for Cass.

Not sure what to expect out of 97, on either side. Both talented. Could easily be an Iowa lean.

I expect the final score to be similar to the fosu meet. Neb won 2, fosu won 3, I can see psu winning up to 3 and possibly 4.

Our problems is that, other than 25, the guys with the biggest talent advantage (49 and 57) either don't bonus or win by 7 and not 8 because they didn't starting thinking bonus until it was too late. Young can bonus in this meet, but he has to have that mentality from the jump.

 

[just_somebody]

Over/under on starters who don't go for each team? I'd figure Murin is doubtful, so i'd set it on 1.5 for Iowa. Inclined to go .5 for PSU, but could see Rasheed not going.


Not sure who on either team benefits from not giving an opponent another match to learn things:

Lee is a buzzsaw and it doesn't really matter what you put in front of him.

Almost the same for ADS, but the one-arm bandit (RBY) might try some things. If ADS doesn't go, it definitely wouldn't be his choice.

If Murin is 100% healthy might as well send him out there to feel Lee out, but if he's not 100% no reason to risk it.

Lugo's problem is finishing against longer guys; he's got more to gain by facing everyone (and really like his chances going forward against Sasso).

KY is KY

VJ and the Bull have enough of a history. As others said, VJ is due for one eventually, and I guess if it has to happen, I'd rather it be at Carver than Bigs or Nats).

If Kem was the favorite, I could see holding back and waiting for the big ten tourney, but Hall is currently atop the mountain, so let Kem try some things and see where he's at.

Assad is young enough to let it fly.

Warner's biggest weak point currently seems to reside in the 6 inches between his ears, and he had a night off last weekend. I don't think two weeks off would be good for him.

Cass doesn't fear anyone, but also wouldn't be completely blindsided if Costello gets a meet at home, especially if the Hawks somehow have things wrapped up (assuming the meet starts at 125).

 

[Lsanders20]

I will take Abe and the Bull all day here in Carver.

 

[VansontheMoon44]

I don’t see anyway that Spencer doesn’t start out with a pin. I think he will do everything he can to get the crowd amped and send the message early.

I mean he tried to pin the backup from Ohio st. Last week, but didn’t get it done. I’m going with 5 as well...

 

[MARION_HAWK]

Hawks by a million.

 

[VansontheMoon44]

Except for that giant shoulder brace he's been wearing all year. No way he could really be hurt.

Lol I was sitting next to someone Friday night who was a clear Murin truther. It was hilarious. Thinks he’s gonna take the 41 spot from Eierman next year. I love Mac but Eierman is Eierman and if he wants 41 he gets 41. Whenever he wants it. I think we see Happel here this Friday too, because HE IS INJURED! (May not be serious, but he gets more resting time). Look for Happel to not get majored. +3 for the Ninny’s.

 

[A Fist Full of Hawkeyes]

I mean he tried to pin the backup from Ohio st. Last week, but didn’t get it done. I’m going with 5 as well...

He didn't try to pin until he was already up significantly.
If Spencer were to go for the pinning combo earlier in a match I guarantee he'd get it.

 

[Grip220]

If Rivera is the ref I’m going to puke!
Hawks win
125,133,149,157,165,174,184,197,285
Hawks 29-4

 

[hoythawk]

He didn't try to pin until he was already up significantly.
If Spencer were to go for the pinning combo earlier in a match I guarantee he'd get it.

Spencer went hard for the pin on his very first turn. The kid did a great job getting out of it. Gibbons thought it was a done deal.

 

[A Fist Full of Hawkeyes]

Spencer went hard for the pin on his very first turn. The kid did a great job getting out of it. Gibbons thought it was a done deal.

He did go hard, but my point is he then went into 3 consecutive arm bar tilts to tech him, including the final series when he was already up 14-0.

I have no objection with him teching the shit out of everyone, but if he wants the pin he has a higher chance of pulling it off earlier in the match than later. 8-0 and the kid rolls out at least he has another chance, at 14-0 the match is over either way.

But yes, I tip my hat to Hunter Lucas for continuing to fight.

 

[86__90]

Would Ped St elect you draw the starting weight instead of starting at 125?

Sanderson usually goes chalk. So @125 they start.

If you want a percentage, I think there is 75% plus chance they start @125.

 

[HoundedHawk]

This thread is disappointing. C'mon guys! Where's the homeristic optimism?

29-3. Hawks lose 141. Sweep the rest.

Where did it go? It's called: The Last Decade.

But a new decade is upon us. I'm hoping to get back there.

 

[Jrjt0518]

He had. That's not being disputed here.

The fact that he has to wear that contraption means he has some sort of shoulder injury, the extent of which most of us have no clue how serious.

Understand that. He looked good jumping around at the dual against Ohio st

 

[255]

I would think they would want to start at Abe v Brooks. End the night number 1 be number 2.
With the crowd and TV...not a bad bet.

 

[MARION_HAWK]

Sanderson usually goes chalk. So @125 they start.

If you want a percentage, I think there is 83% plus chance they start @125.

FIFY

 

[dbogie55]

He did go hard, but my point is he then went into 3 consecutive arm bar tilts to tech him, including the final series when he was already up 14-0.

I have no objection with him teching the shit out of everyone, but if he wants the pin he has a higher chance of pulling it off earlier in the match than later. 8-0 and the kid rolls out at least he has another chance, at 14-0 the match is over either way.

But yes, I tip my hat to Hunter Lucas for continuing to fight.

I agree with this. If Spencer allows the escape then takes him down again he can possibly get the pin. Giving up a couple escape points to try for the pin is worth it in my opinion. Worst case is the tech fall.

 

[24 so far]

I would think they would want to start at Abe v Brooks. End the night number 1 be number 2.
With the crowd and TV...not a bad bet.

My guess is that every dual meet I've witnessed in my lifetime that started somewhere other than 118/125 was not due to Iowa. Don't see that changing here either.

I'm sure Tom would love a full house and as many eyes around the country as possible relative to the "good of the sport", but I think he cares far more about Iowa winning, and a coin flip to start at weight X would not even be a consideration. IMO.(not to say Iowa can't win regardless of where it starts, clearly they can and have)

If Cael doesn't want to start at 125 and wins the flip and wants to get started out on the right foot, it would almost certainly have to be 141. It's the only "lock" they have on paper, with Hall probably next in line from their viewpoint.

Bottom line for me, is if Iowa doesn't "bring it", at all 10 weights they could get beat. If we "bring it", no worries.

 

[dhm47]

If Rivera is the ref I’m going to puke!
Hawks win
125,133,149,157,165,174,184,197,285
Hawks 29-4

Whoa, slow down Big Boy, you might be over your skis

 

[Grip220]

Whoa, slow down Big Boy, you might be over your skis

I don’t ski I FLY! Let’s Go HAWKS

 

[Hawky42]

I think we win 8 matces too 2.

 

[255]

My guess is that every dual meet I've witnessed in my lifetime that started somewhere other than 118/125 was not due to Iowa. Don't see that changing here either.

I'm sure Tom would love a full house and as many eyes around the country as possible relative to the "good of the sport", but I think he cares far more about Iowa winning, and a coin flip to start at weight X would not even be a consideration. IMO.(not to say Iowa can't win regardless of where it starts, clearly they can and have)

If Cael doesn't want to start at 125 and wins the flip and wants to get started out on the right foot, it would almost certainly have to be 141. It's the only "lock" they have on paper, with Hall probably next in line from their viewpoint.

Bottom line for me, is if Iowa doesn't "bring it", at all 10 weights they could get beat. If we "bring it", no worries.

I agree. Tom does not play the game. Start anywhere and wrestle anyone. He is old school.
I dont think Cael wants to start at 184. I think BTN will try.

Am like Tom and apparently you. Start at the beginning and let it roll.

 

[rossel 33]

Brooks
#2 p4p
World Jr FS silver medalist

Assad
#29 p4p
World Cadet FS medalist

On paper, there's just no way Brooks has a chance. If he were to pull off an upset, it would prove Cael should be coach of the year.

 

[slushhead]

On paper, there's just no way Brooks has a chance. If he were to pull off an upset, it would prove Cael should be coach of the year.

Said no one ever.

 

[sdvike]

If Rivera is the ref I’m going to puke!
Hawks win
125,133,149,157,165,174,184,197,285
Hawks 29-4

Was thinking the same thing Grip. Im sitting there enjoying myself and then out comes Rivera and I begin throwing up my Carver cone.

 

[Nashville_Hawkeye]

The first match he threw Joseph to his back. While it will be a close one in all likelihood, Marinelli did beat him twice and they weren't on fluke moves.

No I agree...they definitely weren't fluke moves. But if you look at one of them, it was Joseph who initiated the move and then Alex out leveraged him and put him on his back. It kind of reminded me of the move Kaleb Young did last year when it looked like he was dead, but then he somehow got the upper hand and put the guy to his back. Can't remember the match, but it was something to behold.

 

[Nashville_Hawkeye]

You weren't impressed with Alex's win over Joseph at BIGs last year? Seriously?

Yes, that's the one I was very impressed with...amazing move with the bear hug in the 2nd period. However, it was the other match that I wasn't overly impressed with. Either way, this should be a battle and I'm going with Alex in CHA. And thankfully I will be in attendance thanks to the great guys on this site, who were kind enough to offer up a ticket. Hopefully I will be able to meet one or more of the guys on this forum during the dual.

 

[sdvike]

Here we go, huge week for the Hawks!!

125- WTF 5-0
133- WD, wild one 8-0
141- LMD 8-4
149- WD 11-4
157- WD 14-4
165- WD, close great match 17-4
174- LD, Dislike Hall, but he's good 17-7
184- LD, close match 17-10
197- WD, if Warner back, 20-10
HWT- WD, hope its a fall, 23-10

Would love to see upset at 174 and a big win at 184 and could get major at 149, 157.
Go Hawks!!

Agree with everything except I believe Ironman will pull out the win in Carver which makes it 26-7. A lot of tight matches, both teams are going to want to be wrestling their best.

 

[el dub]

Sanderson usually goes chalk. So @125 they start.

If you want a percentage, I think there is 75% plus chance they start @125.

75%? What’s the matter with you? You messing with us?

 

[Jackhawk87]

Brooks
#2 p4p
World Jr FS silver medalist

Assad
#29 p4p
World Cadet FS medalist

On paper, there's just no way Brooks has a chance. If he were to pull off an upset, it would prove Cael should be coach of the year.

Anybody have a full lineup HS PFP rankings Iowa vs. PSU?

 

[Nashville_Hawkeye]

Here we go, huge week for the Hawks!!

125- WTF 5-0
133- WD, wild one 8-0
141- LMD 8-4
149- WD 11-4
157- WD 14-4
165- WD, close great match 17-4
174- LD, Dislike Hall, but he's good 17-7
184- LD, close match 17-10
197- WD, if Warner back, 20-10
HWT- WD, hope its a fall, 23-10

Would love to see upset at 174 and a big win at 184 and could get major at 149, 157.
Go Hawks!!

125: Lee TF...Iowa 5-0
133: ADS MD...Iowa 9-0 -- I think ADS keeps on the pedal against RBY.
141: Lee MD regardless of who we send out...Iowa 9-4.
149: Lugo MD...Iowa 13-4. Like ADS last week, Lugo is going to be out to prove something this week.
157: Young DEC...Iowa 16-4.
165: Marinelli DEC...Iowa 19-4. What a battle we'll see.
174: Kem DEC...Iowa 22-4. I know Hall is wrestling great, but Kem is about as funky as one could be and Hall will have a very difficult time getting a TD. Therefore, I see Kem winning 5-3 or 3-1.
184: Assad DEC...Iowa 25-4. I know Brooks will be hungry after that subpar performance against Venz, but I'm going with Assad.
197: Warner DEC...Iowa 28-4. If Wilcke, it's a tossup. Rasheed is eventually going to turn the corner, and if Warner wrestles like he did against Shultz, he'll lose.
HWT: Big Tony DEC...Iowa 31-4 and CHA is rocking. I think this will be a tight match as I believe Seth is much better than the rankings indicate. His size and speed will be a good test for Cass, but I can't imagine Cass losing this one.

I don't think we're that much better than PSU (winning 9 of 10), but I do think some of their guys, who I predict will do well in a couple moths, just aren't there yet (Nevills, Brooks, Rasheed, and Joe Lee and Brady Berge, if either of them wrestle this year). And like we did with Assad, I do think Cael is going to pull the shirt for Joe Lee because of how things are currently going at a couple weights. Finally, I'm not necessarily predicting the Bull and Kem will take gold at NCAAs (though I think they have the goods), but I do think the CHA crowd will give them the extra push they'll need to win the two 1 vs 2 matches. And thankfully, I'll be part of the crowd. Go Hawks!

 

[Nashville_Hawkeye]

This thread is disappointing. C'mon guys! Where's the homeristic optimism?

29-3. Hawks lose 141. Sweep the rest.

That's how I see it as well. I think the monster crowd will give us the edge in the 1 vs. 2 matches as well as a couple of the other close ones. However, I don't think a crowd of any size could prevent Lee from taking it to our 141 pounder. I'm excited about watching the dual live!!

 

[HoundedHawk]

125: Lee TF...Iowa 5-0
133: ADS MD...Iowa 9-0 -- I think ADS keeps on the pedal against RBY.
141: Lee MD regardless of who we send out...Iowa 9-4.
149: Lugo MD...Iowa 13-4. Like ADS last week, Lugo is going to be out to prove something this week.
157: Young DEC...Iowa 16-4.
165: Marinelli DEC...Iowa 19-4. What a battle we'll see.
174: Kem DEC...Iowa 22-4. I know Hall is wrestling great, but Kem is about as funky as one could be and Hall will have a very difficult time getting a TD. Therefore, I see Kem winning 5-3 or 3-1.
184: Assad DEC...Iowa 25-4. I know Brooks will be hungry after that subpar performance against Venz, but I'm going with Assad.
197: Warner DEC...Iowa 28-4. If Wilcke, it's a tossup. Rasheed is eventually going to turn the corner, and if Warner wrestles like he did against Shultz, he'll lose.
HWT: Big Tony DEC...Iowa 31-4 and CHA is rocking. I think this will be a tight match as I believe Seth is much better than the rankings indicate. His size and speed will be a good test for Cass, but I can't imagine Cass losing this one.

I don't think we're that much better than PSU (winning 9 of 10), but I do think some of their guys, who I predict will do well in a couple moths, just aren't there yet (Nevills, Brooks, Rasheed, and Joe Lee and Brady Berge, if either of them wrestle this year). And like we did with Assad, I do think Cael is going to pull the shirt for Joe Lee because of how things are currently going at a couple weights. Finally, I'm not necessarily predicting the Bull and Kem will take gold at NCAAs (though I think they have the goods), but I do think the CHA crowd will give them the extra push they'll need to win the two 1 vs 2 matches. And thankfully, I'll be part of the crowd. Go Hawks!

Joe Lee? What weight would he wrestle? He's wrestled 165.

 

[PD4thespawn]

No I agree...they definitely weren't fluke moves. But if you look at one of them, it was Joseph who initiated the move and then Alex out leveraged him and put him on his back. It kind of reminded me of the move Kaleb Young did last year when it looked like he was dead, but then he somehow got the upper hand and put the guy to his back. Can't remember the match, but it was something to behold.

this match should be just as good. their both clearly 1 and 2

 

[Nashville_Hawkeye]

Joe Lee? What weight would he wrestle? He's wrestled 165.

It's really hard to say. Saw a few posts on BWI and if I'm not mistaken there were discussions about Berge and Lee covering down on 149 and 157, in essence, if I'm not mistaken leaving Piper as the odd many out. I'm not certain how many different possibilities are out there but I do recall discussions talking to the possibility of pulling Lee's shirt. Just like our discussions about Assad, I don't believe it was the popular thing to do, but if Cael thinks he might be able to win it all, I'm thinking he would do whatever he could to make it happen. I'm sure if you cruised over to BWI, there's a thread or two that talks to the topic.

 

[Inspiteofourselves]

Over/under on starters who don't go for each team? I'd figure Murin is doubtful, so i'd set it on 1.5 for Iowa. Inclined to go .5 for PSU, but could see Rasheed not going.


Not sure who on either team benefits from not giving an opponent another match to learn things:

Lee is a buzzsaw and it doesn't really matter what you put in front of him.

Almost the same for ADS, but the one-arm bandit (RBY) might try some things. If ADS doesn't go, it definitely wouldn't be his choice.

If Murin is 100% healthy might as well send him out there to feel Lee out, but if he's not 100% no reason to risk it.

Lugo's problem is finishing against longer guys; he's got more to gain by facing everyone (and really like his chances going forward against Sasso).

KY is KY

VJ and the Bull have enough of a history. As others said, VJ is due for one eventually, and I guess if it has to happen, I'd rather it be at Carver than Bigs or Nats).

If Kem was the favorite, I could see holding back and waiting for the big ten tourney, but Hall is currently atop the mountain, so let Kem try some things and see where he's at.

Assad is young enough to let it fly.

Warner's biggest weak point currently seems to reside in the 6 inches between his ears, and he had a night off last weekend. I don't think two weeks off would be good for him.

Cass doesn't fear anyone, but also wouldn't be completely blindsided if Costello gets a meet at home, especially if the Hawks somehow have things wrapped up (assuming the meet starts at 125).

Anyone know what Nelson has weighed in the last couple duals. I assume with Assad at 84 and Wilcke backing him up that Nelson would be descending to 174. I actually wouldn’t be surprised at all if Nelson went Friday. Especially if we have a comfortable lead.

 

[Is_there_vodka_in_heaven]

Said no one ever.

Said all the guys at Flo. They forgot that PSU still has the overall best recruits out of any program.

If Cael manages to win with the absymal team he's fielding this year, he's a lock for coach of the year.

 

[rossel 33]

Anybody have a full lineup HS PFP rankings Iowa vs. PSU?

PSU
125 Teske #34 (transferred out) Meredith NR?
133 RBY #12
142 Lee #4
149 Verkleeren #20
157 Berge #6 (inj?) Pipher NR?
165 Joseph #5 (backup Manville #5)
174 Hall #1
184 Brooks #2
197 Rasheed #43 (backup Beard #11, transfer ncaa runnerup Conel injured)
Hwt Nevills #22 (ncaa champ Cassar injured)

Iowa
125 Lee #2
133 DeSanto #17
141 Murin #44
149 Lugo #64
157 Young #25
165 Marinelli #3
174 Kemerer #8
184 Assad #29, Wilcke #86, Brands #93
197 Warner #7
Hwt Cassioppi #13

Despite losing Cassar, PSU is loaded with elite guys.

Recruit-wise, this is the best lineup that Iowa has had in a long time. While PSU's is one of the weaker lineups in recent years, it's still more highly ranked than everyone else's.

It's pretty clear that when Cael has to insert a Meredith or Pipher, PSU struggles just like every other d1 team. It's when Cael gets a Mark Hall #1p4p, 2x Jr World champion that his "development" skills really shine.

I think Tom and Terry get as much out of guys outside the top 20 (e.g. Murin, Lugo, Young, Assad) as anyone in the country. Give them a guy like Spencer Lee, and the sky is the limit.

P.S. Apologies in advance to Slush and Flying Kitty... I know they're kind of sensitive about this kind of info being publicized.

 

[slushhead]

P.S. Apologies in advance to Slush and Flying Kitty... I know they're kind of sensitive about this kind of info being publicized.

Ha, no worries. I knew how excited you'd be when @Jackhawk87 cued up your entrance music.

p.s. Extra nice touch including a couple
of non-rostered guys in your list of PSU studs.

 

[ss7]

PSU
125 Teske #34 (transferred out) Meredith NR?
133 RBY #12
142 Lee #4
149 Verkleeren #20
157 Berge #6 (inj?) Pipher NR?
165 Joseph #5 (backup Manville #5)
174 Hall #1
184 Brooks #2
197 Rasheed #43 (backup Beard #11, transfer ncaa runnerup Conel injured)
Hwt Nevills #22 (ncaa champ Cassar injured)

Iowa
125 Lee #2
133 DeSanto #17
141 Murin #44
149 Lugo #64
157 Young #25
165 Marinelli #3
174 Kemerer #8
184 Assad #29, Wilcke #86, Brands #93
197 Warner #7
Hwt Cassioppi #13

Despite losing Cassar, PSU is loaded with elite guys.

Recruit-wise, this is the best lineup that Iowa has had in a long time. While PSU's is one of the weaker lineups in recent years, it's still more highly ranked than everyone else's.

It's pretty clear that when Cael has to insert a Meredith or Pipher, PSU struggles just like every other d1 team. It's when Cael gets a Mark Hall #1p4p, 2x Jr World champion that his "development" skills really shine.

I think Tom and Terry get as much out of guys outside the top 20 (e.g. Murin, Lugo, Young, Assad) as anyone in the country. Give them a guy like Spencer Lee, and the sky is the limit.

P.S. Apologies in advance to Slush and Flying Kitty... I know they're kind of sensitive about this kind of info being publicized.

Not trying to start a whole thing here, but going by your own numbers (of who will actually be wrestling)...

Iowa's average recruit ranking is better than PSU's (21.2 to 30.9)*

Iowa has just as many top 10 p4p recruits as PSU

In a direct comparison, Iowa has the higher ranked recruit at half the weights

Based on your numbers, it seems like Iowa has the more highly ranked team.

*NR=100, which is probably a little generous to Meredith (but maybe not Pipher)

 

[24 so far]

PSU
125 Teske #34 (transferred out) Meredith NR?
133 RBY #12
142 Lee #4
149 Verkleeren #20
157 Berge #6 (inj?) Pipher NR?
165 Joseph #5 (backup Manville #5)
174 Hall #1
184 Brooks #2
197 Rasheed #43 (backup Beard #11, transfer ncaa runnerup Conel injured)
Hwt Nevills #22 (ncaa champ Cassar injured)

Iowa
125 Lee #2
133 DeSanto #17
141 Murin #44
149 Lugo #64
157 Young #25
165 Marinelli #3
174 Kemerer #8
184 Assad #29, Wilcke #86, Brands #93
197 Warner #7
Hwt Cassioppi #13

Despite losing Cassar, PSU is loaded with elite guys.

Recruit-wise, this is the best lineup that Iowa has had in a long time. While PSU's is one of the weaker lineups in recent years, it's still more highly ranked than everyone else's.

It's pretty clear that when Cael has to insert a Meredith or Pipher, PSU struggles just like every other d1 team. It's when Cael gets a Mark Hall #1p4p, 2x Jr World champion that his "development" skills really shine.

I think Tom and Terry get as much out of guys outside the top 20 (e.g. Murin, Lugo, Young, Assad) as anyone in the country. Give them a guy like Spencer Lee, and the sky is the limit.

P.S. Apologies in advance to Slush and Flying Kitty... I know they're kind of sensitive about this kind of info being publicized.

At least we're in the ballpark for the first time in a decade, which is why we're in a position to take them out. We know it, they know it, now let's execute it in March and finish it.