Very solid prediction...as a PSU fan, I’m in total agreement but hoping for better.
Hawks-Penn St
- Thread starter Slambamham
- Start date
Ha, no worries. I knew how excited you'd be when @Jackhawk87 cued up your entrance music.
p.s. Extra nice touch including a couple
of non-rostered guys in your list of PSU studs.
More like this:
Apologies in advance, as I am going to be about as troll-ish as i ever have:
I don't think ignoring injuries is fair- those guys are still taking up their 1/4 scholarships or whatever top 10 guys get at PSU
. And with so many injuries, Carl must be working the Nits too hard, almost like a machine or robot. Not enough f*n? Or have the dodgeball games been getting out of hand?
If this is his strategy to win, he better hope he's up 12 or more going in to the last 2 matches cuz we know what's happening at 25 and RBY would certainly be a in line for a Decaturing if it falls on AD to bring home the win....get the arm sling ready for the trip back to PA, gonna be a long sore trip.
And that is why on paper Iowa is actually favored to win the dual. With actual starter Berge who is out injured it is 21.5 PSU and 21.2 Iowa or basically dead even. Next year PSU throws in Howard, Bartlett, Starocci, Beard and Kerk and they blow everyone out of the water on ranking again.
I think it's obvious to most that Spencer's objective is to limit wear and tear to stay fresh and healthy for his big grind at NCAA and olympic trials. There is no reason for him to cut guys for that extra point. The Olympics are his priority he is being a team player by wrestling so many college matches this year. Thats my opinion and I'm sticking with it.
People have been clamoring for Carl as coy if his team wins it all. He should win it all with his roster. Rossels post was closer to reality than anything you post.Said no one ever.
PSU
125 Teske #34 (transferred out) Meredith NR?
133 RBY #12
142 Lee #4
149 Verkleeren #20
157 Berge #6 (inj?) Pipher NR?
165 Joseph #5 (backup Manville #5)
174 Hall #1
184 Brooks #2
197 Rasheed #43 (backup Beard #11, transfer ncaa runnerup Conel injured)
Hwt Nevills #22 (ncaa champ Cassar injured)
Iowa
125 Lee #2
133 DeSanto #17
141 Murin #44
149 Lugo #64
157 Young #25
165 Marinelli #3
174 Kemerer #8
184 Assad #29, Wilcke #86, Brands #93
197 Warner #7
Hwt Cassioppi #13
Despite losing Cassar, PSU is loaded with elite guys.
Recruit-wise, this is the best lineup that Iowa has had in a long time. While PSU's is one of the weaker lineups in recent years, it's still more highly ranked than everyone else's.
It's pretty clear that when Cael has to insert a Meredith or Pipher, PSU struggles just like every other d1 team. It's when Cael gets a Mark Hall #1p4p, 2x Jr World champion that his "development" skills really shine.
I think Tom and Terry get as much out of guys outside the top 20 (e.g. Murin, Lugo, Young, Assad) as anyone in the country. Give them a guy like Spencer Lee, and the sky is the limit.
P.S. Apologies in advance to Slush and Flying Kitty... I know they're kind of sensitive about this kind of info being publicized.
Thanks. So by the HS rankings (assuming no Berge),
We should win 125, 157, 165, 197, and 285
We should lose 133, 141, 149, 174 and 184.
Seems like a pretty even match up (except it looks like our 133, 149, and 184 lbers may have developed a bit more than theirs).
Said no one ever.
FLO guys reportedly said Cael should be coach of the year if PSU wins it all.
On the "Iowa has no chance" thread, a couple of posters said it.
And some guy named "slushhead" hinted at it as well:
<<
Unless a team coasts wire-to-wire without challenge, doesn't COTY usually go to the coach of the championship team?
I figure the award will go that way this year.
107 slushhead, Friday at 4:52 PM>>
You used "average." It distorts the reality, by pushing PSU's number way up because of throwing in a guy ranked 100. A more meaningful measurement is "median."
Here's a popular analogy. 100 folks drinking in a bar all work for $25 per hour. So the average income for those people is $25 per hour, and the median income is the same $25 per hour.
Bill Gates walks into that bar. He made $1billion dollars that year. So now the average income of the bar patrons just shot up to way over $1million. One could falsely conclude that the bar is filled with millionaires. The median (more meaningful) stays at $25 per hour.
PSU has recruits with a median ranking significantly better than Iowa (despite this being Iowa's best in years).
The median recruit ranking would be 15 for Iowa and 16 for PSU.
Again, based on your numbers and who is anticipated to be on the mat.
Mean is a poor descriptor of a database as it allows too much influence to outlier events ( single extremes).
Median is a better metric since it is less influenced by above.
Median is PSU 5 Iowa 13
Most important to remember is that ...."their are lies, dam lies and there there are statistics'-- Mark Twain
If there are 10 values, the median is the mean of the 5th and 6th ranked values.
PSU - 1, 2, 4, 5, 12, 20, 22, 43, NR, NR
Iowa - 2, 3, 7, 8, 13, 17, 25, 29, 44, 64
So what penn st had better numbers for multiple years. Don’t cry now.
Lots of penn st fans on here now that it’s Iowa week. Trying to justify the ass whooping that’s coming.
“Not trying to start a whole thing here” I’m going to guess that maybe you weren’t being honest with us. I’m not sure if I were you I would try to argue that penn state’s recruiting isn’t the best (by far) in wrestling.
When Carl has the best talent by far he wins, when the talent is close and the playing field is a bit more level is when we get to judge who does a better job coaching / development. First test is Friday night and the final is in March.
I’m pretty sure all hawk fans give Carl the king of recruiting / scholarship management title. Thankfully Tom decided to study that binder and make some changes - I fault him for thinking all coaches are ethical like he is.
Just thinking. (Being silly)
But Joseph has the first seed right now. If he gets beat Friday, most likely moves to second.
would be amusing if Friday we hear VJ has the flu or a sprained bicept or something. Say why you will but if the dual is not looking good to Carl...it would not surprise me.
But Joseph has the first seed right now. If he gets beat Friday, most likely moves to second.
would be amusing if Friday we hear VJ has the flu or a sprained bicept or something. Say why you will but if the dual is not looking good to Carl...it would not surprise me.
Good maybe he can actually try to earn his ranking instead of being given it.
Jumping around is great, that doesn’t hurt. However, if it’s a labrum the pain and almost complete muscle deadness happens at shoulder height and above. I’ve had four torn labrums, I have one right now, and could barely put my arm over my head or pull an arm out on a trap arm. No strength at all. I just hope it’s not that and heals up and can shed the contraption.
Basically said Warner ducked Moore. But yet Marinelli wrestles wick a ton of time but when Wisconsin wrestled penn st cenzo never showed. Same thing!!
why? I have no issue saying it.
Warner was out..fine. I have not seen brands duck. seen others do it. Not to the extent I think we talk about but I have seen it.
Hard to read from the high horse I guess but I did say silly.
Said no one ever.
Ah, so the Brooks-Assad thing at which I rolled my eyes was just an analogy for something the Blo Rasslin crew said about the PSU-Iowa team race and COY. Seems like a stretch, but whatevs.
For someone "not trying to start something here," methinks you are being a bit obtuse.
I don't know if Berge wrestles Friday - I included him since he's listed as possible. I don't actually know if someone else will get sick or be out either. Here is how the teams line up recruit level wise:
Iowa PSU
2 1
3 2
7 4
8 5
13 6
17 12
25 20
29 22
44 43
64 NR
Looking at them side by side, any claim that PSU is at a disadvantage, due to recruits not being so highly ranked this year, is laughable.
By taking those numbers and assigning NR as 100, and using "average," instead of median, it falsely makes it look like PSU is at a disadvantage recruit wise... kinda weak logic.
Obviously matchups matter, and I wouldn't use this list to predict who wins. But it does show that despite losing Cassar, PSU has so much firepower and top level recruits, they still surpass probably every other d1 team in top recruits.
PSU
125 Teske #34 (transferred out) Meredith NR?
133 RBY #12
142 Lee #4
149 Verkleeren #20
157 Berge #6 (inj?) Pipher NR?
165 Joseph #5 (backup Manville #5)
174 Hall #1
184 Brooks #2
197 Rasheed #43 (backup Beard #11, transfer ncaa runnerup Conel injured)
Hwt Nevills #22 (ncaa champ Cassar injured)
Iowa
125 Lee #2
133 DeSanto #17
141 Murin #44
149 Lugo #64
157 Young #25
165 Marinelli #3
174 Kemerer #8
184 Assad #29, Wilcke #86, Brands #93
197 Warner #7
Hwt Cassioppi #13
Despite losing Cassar, PSU is loaded with elite guys.
Recruit-wise, this is the best lineup that Iowa has had in a long time. While PSU's is one of the weaker lineups in recent years, it's still more highly ranked than everyone else's.
It's pretty clear that when Cael has to insert a Meredith or Pipher, PSU struggles just like every other d1 team. It's when Cael gets a Mark Hall #1p4p, 2x Jr World champion that his "development" skills really shine.
I think Tom and Terry get as much out of guys outside the top 20 (e.g. Murin, Lugo, Young, Assad) as anyone in the country. Give them a guy like Spencer Lee, and the sky is the limit.
P.S. Apologies in advance to Slush and Flying Kitty... I know they're kind of sensitive about this kind of info being publicized.
Who was number one over Lee his senior year?!
I would have to agree with Cael being coach of the year. He has to be a professor in wrestling and in math. He has 9.9 scholarships for 40 guys, all on half rides, on the wrestling team. Must have two degrees?? And he doesn't know anything about the PSWC...
Actually, what I recall seeing was that it could be Joe Lee at 149, but thought I saw where he is/was already a 165 guy? Again, I just recall bits and pieces, so don't want to sound like I have any real knowledge. That's why I enjoy catching up on here...and occasionally rolling over to BWI to see if there are any news worthy pieces being posted over there. I just can't believe for one second the team PSU has put on the mat lately is the team that will be at the NCAAs. Gotta think there will be at least a couple additions. I know there's always next year, but with three likely finalists and potential champions, I can't picture this being a throw-away year for Cael and company. Just my thoughts...
While I would really want to see the Kem-Hall match since I'm going to be there live (thank you, Lord), IMO there is nothing to be gained by Kem wrestling him at this point. I like the "manage the pitch count" phrase and philosophy that someone brought up on here. Kem healthy at NCAAs is the important thing. And to your point, I wouldn't mind seeing Nelson go if for no other reason than to see what he can do with someone his own size, even if it is Hall. Kem is my obvious choice but I'm good either way...
(not picking on you Nash, this is a general statement to all)
Not a fan. If healthy, test your mettle and get out there win or lose. Dont care who it is or what team you're on.
In Kem's case even if he lost to Hall he's probably the 2 seed, so who cares. You know how you get the 1 seed, by wrestling and beating whoever they put in front of you, regardless of pedigree or current ranking. Don't do it today, you'll likely get another crack at it in the not too distant future. The supposed 1 seed at the beginning of the year is plenty of times not the same as the 1 seed when it matters most, at NCAA'S.
I wonder how many times Tom and Terry Brands got "benched" while starters at Iowa with seeding implications on the line? How about Cael? My guess is never. Can't imagine it would have went over too well with the Twins.
DI wrestling is hard, but it's not harder now than it was 40 years ago. It's always been hard, but people weren't advocates for watching bonafide studs sit for any reason. Boggles the mind.
Nah...we will need all our studs...this will be a dogfight to the end. They will be looking for cradles and falls all night. We better be ready for it....
That's correct. Here is FLO's 2017 Big Board ranking:
1 Fix
2 S Lee
3 Yianni
4 Arujau
5 Labriola
6 Berge
7 Warner
8 Deprez
9 N Lee
10 Singletary
There are three ways in which the pound for pound rankings fail as measures of which team has the better wrestlers at any given weight class. 1) They don't account for how much better one class may be than another (say 2017 versus 2018), 2) They don't account for development over the course of a career, and 3) they don't account for injuries over a career.
So, yeah, it's fun to look at recruiting rankings and say "PSU should win handily because their average or mean rankings are superior to everyone else's." DeSanto vs. RBY is a perfect case in point: 1) 2017 vs. 2018 recruiting years so not directly comparable, and 2) DeSanto's college development vs. RBY's.
HS PFP rankings overall are a crapshoot. How to define whether the 125 guy is better than a 149 guy in a given year? Plus, how does that translate to the overall competition at 125 over a 4/5 year period at that weight? What if #8 PFP guy at 125 in 2018 is highest ranked 125 lber that year and is going going up against #5 from 2019, #14 from 2017 and #8 from 2016 (and those are the top rankings for that weight over those years) VERSUS #1 PFP at 145 in 2018 going up against #1 in 2019, #3 in 2017, and #4 in 2016 while a #23 from 2017 is the returning NCAA champ and was rated #23 PFP at 141 rather than 149?
PFP rankings are way overrated. Yeah, there are some guys like Hall at 174 and Lee at 125 where you just know they're going to be HOF caliber college wrestlers. But there are a bunch of DeSanto's who emerge every year at different weights at different schools who defy the PFP rankings. Obviously, you want highly ranked guys at your college programs, but there are so many variables like culture fit, coaching quality and acceptance of coaching, in-room competition, competitive fire, work-time put into developing, genetic weight/frame related development (Kemerer starting at 157 and now at 174), injuries, mistakes in judging talent, and so on.
So, yeah, it's fun to look at recruiting rankings and say "PSU should win handily because their average or mean rankings are superior to everyone else's." DeSanto vs. RBY is a perfect case in point: 1) 2017 vs. 2018 recruiting years so not directly comparable, and 2) DeSanto's college development vs. RBY's.
HS PFP rankings overall are a crapshoot. How to define whether the 125 guy is better than a 149 guy in a given year? Plus, how does that translate to the overall competition at 125 over a 4/5 year period at that weight? What if #8 PFP guy at 125 in 2018 is highest ranked 125 lber that year and is going going up against #5 from 2019, #14 from 2017 and #8 from 2016 (and those are the top rankings for that weight over those years) VERSUS #1 PFP at 145 in 2018 going up against #1 in 2019, #3 in 2017, and #4 in 2016 while a #23 from 2017 is the returning NCAA champ and was rated #23 PFP at 141 rather than 149?
PFP rankings are way overrated. Yeah, there are some guys like Hall at 174 and Lee at 125 where you just know they're going to be HOF caliber college wrestlers. But there are a bunch of DeSanto's who emerge every year at different weights at different schools who defy the PFP rankings. Obviously, you want highly ranked guys at your college programs, but there are so many variables like culture fit, coaching quality and acceptance of coaching, in-room competition, competitive fire, work-time put into developing, genetic weight/frame related development (Kemerer starting at 157 and now at 174), injuries, mistakes in judging talent, and so on.
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