DPL 10:30 pm Friday update
Friday Night Tropical Thoughts:
1. Ok, here is how I see this playing out. The area we talked extensively about last night (TD #11 in the Pacific) has indeed crossed Mexico as we suggested and is getting better organized in the Western Gulf.
2. This will be a 1-2 punch..so to speak. The blob of moisture ahead of this developing system will spread rain into our area on Sunday and Monday. Totals will be heaviest to the South. 3-5" of rain is possible, especially South of I-4. Scattered rains elsewhere. It will NOT be a total washout in many spots. The second punch will be what likely will become Milton and it should make landfall on the Florida West coast on Wednesday.
3. Strength. Anywhere from a depression to a Category 1 hurricane. Models had Helene nearly perfect. This one is far more difficult. So many factors will come into play as it develops and accelerates toward Florida. Again, the one thing we are rather sure about is this will come to Florida on Wednesday. What exactly IT is, is still unclear.
4. Models have been anywhere from Tampa to the Keys. They will probably continue to flip-flop back and forth for another 36 hours. So, the message tonight is to prepare as if this is coming our way. It absolutely could be.
5. Heavy rainfall and surge are absolutely possible, if not likely, along the path. This arrives late Tuesday and lasts until late on Wednesday. Obviously, the exact path is critical in who sees the worst of it. Landfall and just to the South will see the highest storm surge.
6. We'll know more tomorrow. I suspect we will have a PTC (Potential Tropical Cycone) issued on Sunday. That will be the 1st time the NHC will issue a track..if indeed this develops as expected.
7. Parents of kids at Florida State University, Florida A&M University, University of Florida, University of South Florida, The University of Tampa, University of Central Florida, Florida Gulf Coast University and University of Miami can follow along here to get updates on how the potential storm will impact these schools.
8. One last time, I repeat, models have (and will continue) to shift wildly over the next 24 hours. In just the past 12 hours, the GFS has gone from Tampa, to Key West. This is normal...and it also illustrates how we just don't know exact track yet. The "I knew it was gonna do this" comments are a bunch of "hogwash" as my Uncle Milton used to say. Yes, I DID have an Uncle Milton. He was a great guy. I refuse to believe he'd make a ruckus for us after the week we've had. Updates 24/7 as always.
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Denis Phillips. 1,217,111 likes · 131,867 talking about this. Suspender/"Dad Shoe" wearing Chief Meteorologist. Little to no sleep required during hurricane season
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