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Hurricane season has arrived....

I don't think I have ever seen as much flat out lying as I am seeing from Trumpers on social media about the federal government's response for Helene. How do people just go around spreading lies and misinformation all day and then live with themselves?
As Vance said - it doesnt' matter if it's true so long as it promotes their view.
 
FYI, I understand there are no rental cars available presently at RSW, not sure about Punta Gorda airport but I suppose it is the same.
 
DPL 5 pm Friday update




Quick Tropical Thoughts:

1. Complete update at 7:30 on DPL

2. Area we talked about yesterday in the Pacific has indeed crossed over and shows signs of development. Both the Euro and GFS develop this into a tropical storm by early next week. Expect LOTS of model flip flopping on this one. So many variables will come into play. This is not Helene...however a named storm could still bring impacts to our area.

3. Time frame is next Wednesday or Thursday. At this point, models are showing anything from a disorganized system to a hurricane. Not much help, I get it. I think we'll know tomorrow or Sunday.

4. It's the LAST thing we want to hear. It's important to remember, expect a lot of flip flopping with these models. At this point, I suspect a named storm will impact Florida next Wednesday. And unfortunately, yes, it has the potential to be a hurricane. It ALSO has the potential to be much weaker. I will NOT focus on a worst case scenario because a few models show it. Let's deal with FACTS, not hype. We've got a few days to figure this one out and give you reasonable expectations of how this could impact you.

5. Keep it right here for updates 24/7. When we see models showing a solutuon 2 or 3 straight runs, then we can realistically talk about potential impacts. Until then, anything is still possible, including little to no impact. Hang in there. Whatever comes our way, we'll get through this together.


 
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DPL Friday night webcast

Path is shifting between Tampa and Key West. We should know the track on Sunday or Monday

Landfall likely on Wednesday

High end tropical storm or category 1 hurricane

This will go across the state, west to east

 
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The ECMWF model has it making landfall around Sarasota as a tropical storm and actually strengthening into a hurricane as it leaves Daytona.
 
DPL 10:30 pm Friday update



Friday Night Tropical Thoughts:

1. Ok, here is how I see this playing out. The area we talked extensively about last night (TD #11 in the Pacific) has indeed crossed Mexico as we suggested and is getting better organized in the Western Gulf.

2. This will be a 1-2 punch..so to speak. The blob of moisture ahead of this developing system will spread rain into our area on Sunday and Monday. Totals will be heaviest to the South. 3-5" of rain is possible, especially South of I-4. Scattered rains elsewhere. It will NOT be a total washout in many spots. The second punch will be what likely will become Milton and it should make landfall on the Florida West coast on Wednesday.

3. Strength. Anywhere from a depression to a Category 1 hurricane. Models had Helene nearly perfect. This one is far more difficult. So many factors will come into play as it develops and accelerates toward Florida. Again, the one thing we are rather sure about is this will come to Florida on Wednesday. What exactly IT is, is still unclear.

4. Models have been anywhere from Tampa to the Keys. They will probably continue to flip-flop back and forth for another 36 hours. So, the message tonight is to prepare as if this is coming our way. It absolutely could be.

5. Heavy rainfall and surge are absolutely possible, if not likely, along the path. This arrives late Tuesday and lasts until late on Wednesday. Obviously, the exact path is critical in who sees the worst of it. Landfall and just to the South will see the highest storm surge.

6. We'll know more tomorrow. I suspect we will have a PTC (Potential Tropical Cycone) issued on Sunday. That will be the 1st time the NHC will issue a track..if indeed this develops as expected.

7. Parents of kids at Florida State University, Florida A&M University, University of Florida, University of South Florida, The University of Tampa, University of Central Florida, Florida Gulf Coast University and University of Miami can follow along here to get updates on how the potential storm will impact these schools.

8. One last time, I repeat, models have (and will continue) to shift wildly over the next 24 hours. In just the past 12 hours, the GFS has gone from Tampa, to Key West. This is normal...and it also illustrates how we just don't know exact track yet. The "I knew it was gonna do this" comments are a bunch of "hogwash" as my Uncle Milton used to say. Yes, I DID have an Uncle Milton. He was a great guy. I refuse to believe he'd make a ruckus for us after the week we've had. Updates 24/7 as always.

If viewing this on your phone, go directly to DPL’s FB page to view the post as FB and HORT-Rivals are not cooperating

 
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Fox 35 Orlando meteorologist Noah Bergen - Friday 11 pm



MILTON: Is on the way. Got to be honest, this thing already in the Gulf is quite a bit ahead of schedule. And I do NOT like seeing that. I am being honest. Already firing tremendous and intense thunderstorms in the SW Gulf.

That circled area is our feature that will develop into Milton and track NE. Don't think the models are fully grasping yet how far "ahead" of expectation this blob of thunderstorms is. I will go out on this limb and say that if the storms continue like they are now all day Saturday, a strong hurricane could be on our hands. I think that could/would happen in that scenario.

We need to watch this VERY close. People in Tampa Bay/west coast are still picking up from Helene. Any surge event could be extreme impact. Still a long way to go, but there is no use in hiding the fact this thing could take off faster if convection continues like it is and a center forms sooner. But again, if.

Simple thinking and analysis would lead me to believe if this mass of storms continues through Saturday -- a much stronger and further north scenario would ensue. If the storms diminish Saturday in that circled area, weaker and further south. Stronger storm (hurricane) sooner "feels" more of the jet stream wind aloft (duh, because it's taller) and would get 'pulled' north more and faster. Hence the track directly over Tampa/Orlando as opposed to Ft. Myers.

 
Noah Bergen 11:30 pm Friday



MILTON: Let's watch this one over the weekend closely. This *could* be a very impactful storm. Couple of thoughts...

RAIN: there will be two waves. Monday and Tuesday ahead of Milton -- lots of slow moving downpours and storms that could saturate the ground. Some flooding could occur in spots. Then the rain with Milton that could be significant along and north of the center track. Double digit rain totals are possible with significant flood risk.

INTENSITY: I know this will sound like a wildly big spread, but as low as a Tropical Storm, as high as a mid-range hurricane are possible. Very tricky to determine as no low level center has formed just yet.

TRACK: Has flip flopped all over. Some suggestions to Ft. Myers, others Tampa to Orlando, others Sarasota to Melbourne. Still a wide range of outcomes which will obviously dictate where the worst rain is.

Personally, I drew two scenarios for you. Scenario A is like the EURO model shows. A stronger storm going further north because of feeling the jet stream steering aloft. Would mean more major rain and flood risk to the I-4 corridor (Tampa to Orlando to Daytona) Tuesday night through Thursday AM/midday.

Scenario B is the storm says just as a Tropical Storm, and kinda scoots more due east across south central FL. Keeping the big rains south of Orlando and Tampa.

Still, even in the 'weaker' scenario, rain could be significant along the center. Just it would be even more significant is the overall system was stronger.

Long way to go still in the forecasting. We should have a forecast cone from the NHC I would guess on Sunday. If you live in a flood prone area, this weekend you should think about this closely.

Let's take it one step at a time, we will get ya through it. Could be really significant impact, or just a moderate impact. Lot of scenarios on the table as outlined here but the scenario A has certainly trended stronger.
 
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CBS Ft Myers meteorologist



Best way to think about it is that Florida will see a one-two punch. The first one will bring us rain Sunday into Monday with an area of low pressure along a stalled out front. Then the 2nd, main punch from tropical storm or hurricane approaches on Tuesday into Wednesday.
@WINKNews
 


With #92L continuing to hold convection over the SW Gulf, TC genesis is looking more likely. Still a wide range of track and intensity possibilities (GFS is overdone I hope, but we'll see), but it would be a good idea to start thinking about your hurricane plan for next week along the West Coast of Florida. Heavy rain looks to spread across much of the state regardless of development, and even out ahead of the TC.
 
This season trying to break Florida! I know of two people in Tampa Bay Area that were flooded and debating now moving….
 
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With #92L continuing to hold convection over the SW Gulf, TC genesis is looking more likely. Still a wide range of track and intensity possibilities (GFS is overdone I hope, but we'll see), but it would be a good idea to start thinking about your hurricane plan for next week along the West Coast of Florida. Heavy rain looks to spread across much of the state regardless of development, and even out ahead of the TC.
The GFS is more aggressive in the strength forecast as it was for Helene. Someone better get busy getting the Tampa shield up.
 
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