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Hurricane season has arrived....

I don’t know what the rationale for weakening, I’m sure it’s science related. But the way these things intensify so rapidly and the warm water, I am not optimistic it’ll weaken before land.
 
I don’t know what the rationale for weakening, I’m sure it’s science related. But the way these things intensify so rapidly and the warm water, I am not optimistic it’ll weaken before land.
Ian did that. Was a 5 offshore but a 4 when it made landfall.
 
I don’t know what the rationale for weakening, I’m sure it’s science related. But the way these things intensify so rapidly and the warm water, I am not optimistic it’ll weaken before land.

The wind sheer out of the west will topple the cloud tops out of alignment, hindering rotation.

This also means the storm will barrel across Florida like a runaway freight train.
 
During Hurricane Charley, Orlando experienced sustained winds of about 85 mph and gusts of up to 106 mph at Orlando International Airport. Charley was a Category 4 hurricane when it made landfall near Cayo Costa, west of Fort Myers

Charley was a more powerful storm. It also had a ridiculously fast forward velocity of over 50 mph, which allowed strong winds to push unusually far inland. The conditions during Charley are probably close to a worst case scenario for Orlando.
 
Charley was a more powerful storm. It also had a ridiculously fast forward velocity of over 50 mph, which allowed strong winds to push unusually far inland. The conditions during Charley are probably close to a worst case scenario for Orlando.

I think this one is going to be worse than Charley, unfortunately.
 
I don’t know what the rationale for weakening, I’m sure it’s science related. But the way these things intensify so rapidly and the warm water, I am not optimistic it’ll weaken before land.
There is some dry air to the north that may intrude on him. Sadly it doesn’t appear to be enough. Hurricane Opal in 95 weakened from a borderline 5 to a 3 before making landfall in the Florida panhandle all thanks to dry air intrusion.
 
Mrs. Ed and I had to cut short a kayaking trip down the Rainbow River and the Withlacoochee River this weekend and head back to Cape Coral to make preparations. What's normally a 3 hour drive took 5 hours due to the traffic and heavy rainstorms. And I got lucky and was able to top off my gas tank at a station with only short lines, and even then 3 pumps at the 7-11 ran out. Nowhere at this point has any gas, and the line going NORTH on I-75 was bumper to bumper and 15 miles long when we went by. My retirement years are becoming more work and trouble than they're worth.
 
Mrs. Ed and I had to cut short a kayaking trip down the Rainbow River and the Withlacoochee River this weekend and head back to Cape Coral to make preparations. What's normally a 3 hour drive took 5 hours due to the traffic and heavy rainstorms. And I got lucky and was able to top off my gas tank at a station with only short lines, and even then 3 pumps at the 7-11 ran out. Nowhere at this point has any gas, and the line going NORTH on I-75 was bumper to bumper and 15 miles long when we went by. My retirement years are becoming more work and trouble than they're worth.

Filled up the Tradmobile and some cans for the generator today.

Yes, there were lines.
 
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Spare me. You make fun of hurricanes unless they’re coming over your house. And this one might. I look forward to your drama.
Nobody is making fun of hurricanes, but development is simply occurring in areas that are too susceptible to weather events.
 
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I'm just curious.

I know most Republicans don't believe in climate change or science, for that matter.
That’s an over-generalization of Republicans. I think many, many Republicans believe climate change is real, but the U.S. realistically cannot shoulder the main financial burden of trying to combat it. China, and other “dirty” countries aren’t helping as much as they should.
 
We do have estimates of strength based on recorded barometric pressure and accounts of damage. Florida has been overbuilt a long time. There is a reason all of our home owners insurance doubled the last 3 years and will double now again in the next 3. This is simply not normal and was predicted. Just like the floods in North Carolina mountains nobody had flood insurance for. Just like the derechos in Iowa. Just like the Midwest like tornadoes in Tallahassee this spring. Just like the dozens killed in a fire in Hawaii….and on and on. Climate change is showing up in the form of much more extreme weather.


I think you’re missing the original point, that is, the increased # of people living in areas susceptible to bad has brought this to the forefront, as much, or more, than weather extremes.
 
That’s an over-generalization of Republicans. I think many, many Republicans believe climate change is real, but the U.S. realistically cannot shoulder the main financial burden of trying to combat it. China, and other “dirty” countries aren’t helping as much as they should.
So is it your answer to wait until these "dirty countries" take the lead?

BTW - China has embraced alternative energy. They lead the world in the installation of wind and solar.
 
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So is it your answer to wait until these "dirty countries" take the lead?

BTW - China has embraced alternative energy. They lead the world in the installation of wind and solar.
It’s a difficult question and I don’t have a good answer. Neither, you or I, are in a position of power to make such a call. I’m just someone on a message board stating my opinion, which is, many more countries than just the U.S., need to get involved financially to work toward solving this issue. From a shorter-term existential threat perspective, I’m more concerned about a rouge country, like Iran, obtaining/using a nuclear weapon, or the ever expanding national debt creating a financial meltdown.
 
It’s a difficult question and I don’t have a good answer. Neither, you or I, are in a position of power to make such a call. I’m just someone on a message board stating my opinion, which is, many more countries than just the U.S., need to get involved financially to work toward solving this issue. From a shorter-term existential threat perspective, I’m more concerned about a rouge country, like Iran, obtaining/using a nuclear weapon, or the ever expanding national debt creating a financial meltdown.
It's not difficult at all if you believe we are a country leading the free world.
 
After listening to Denis Phillips tonight, the path staying over Bradenton, pretty much exactly in the middle of all the models is not a surprise.

He says the NHC is conservative about changing a path, because they don’t want it jumping around and making people lose their minds more than they already are. They will make small changes or none until they know for sure. That will happen when most of the models converge on one path.
 
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