I think it is the other way around. How is ISU going to put up points against Iowa?
IOWA@isu predictions
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I think it is the other way around. How is ISU going to put up points against Iowa?
If you check recent history - the difference in the games between Iowa and ISU almost always comes down to the match-up between Iowa's D and ISU's O. This is because Iowa's O is almost always universally mediocre - particularly early in the season.
When Iowa features an elite D ... then it's a simple fact that ISU has a tough time rallying if they have such difficulty scoring.
The last few times when the Iowa D truly looked like what we expect of an Iowa D ... 2013 and 2010 ... the Hawks won.
As far as I'm concerned, as I've written in another thread - I still view this game as a "push." However, IF Iowa wins ... then I'd infer that it would be because this year marks another one of those high-water mark years in terms of the Iowa D. If you look at personnel, Iowa's starting group on the DL and the secondary look pretty solid. Will the Iowa LBs demonstrate elevated play? Will they play with consistency? Will the LB-play be good enough to raise the D back into being an "elite" unit?
To answer the aforementioned questions - I think that LB play will be good, potentially quite good. The current group of starting LBs offers an improvement over last years group on many fronts:
1. Improved foot-speed
2. Improved experience
3. Unified message (only Coach Reid) - less room for confusion
4. Greater emphasis on "playing fast"
5. More leadership - both from young guys and seniors - starters and non-starters (even as a non-starter, Travis Perry is helping out younger guys)
However, how about any depth issues that the Hawks might have in the secondary? We all know that the Cyclones has a darn fine group of WRs. If Iowa uses more extra-DB packages (nickel and dime), will the extra DBs execute at a high level? I always had been under the impression that Fleming was the #3 CB ... however, as we all observed against Illinois State, it was very disturbing watching him get beaten so easily.
Thus, while I'm quite confident in Iowa's starters in the secondary - I do have concerns about how well the secondary can/will hold up against ISU's passing game. I can only hope that the Iowa DL completely harasses Richardson. However, on paper, the 2014 Iowa DL should have been every bit as good as the 2015 DL ... and yet they weren't very impressive against the ISU OL.
So what should we expect?
When Iowa features an elite D ... then it's a simple fact that ISU has a tough time rallying if they have such difficulty scoring.
The last few times when the Iowa D truly looked like what we expect of an Iowa D ... 2013 and 2010 ... the Hawks won.
As far as I'm concerned, as I've written in another thread - I still view this game as a "push." However, IF Iowa wins ... then I'd infer that it would be because this year marks another one of those high-water mark years in terms of the Iowa D. If you look at personnel, Iowa's starting group on the DL and the secondary look pretty solid. Will the Iowa LBs demonstrate elevated play? Will they play with consistency? Will the LB-play be good enough to raise the D back into being an "elite" unit?
To answer the aforementioned questions - I think that LB play will be good, potentially quite good. The current group of starting LBs offers an improvement over last years group on many fronts:
1. Improved foot-speed
2. Improved experience
3. Unified message (only Coach Reid) - less room for confusion
4. Greater emphasis on "playing fast"
5. More leadership - both from young guys and seniors - starters and non-starters (even as a non-starter, Travis Perry is helping out younger guys)
However, how about any depth issues that the Hawks might have in the secondary? We all know that the Cyclones has a darn fine group of WRs. If Iowa uses more extra-DB packages (nickel and dime), will the extra DBs execute at a high level? I always had been under the impression that Fleming was the #3 CB ... however, as we all observed against Illinois State, it was very disturbing watching him get beaten so easily.
Thus, while I'm quite confident in Iowa's starters in the secondary - I do have concerns about how well the secondary can/will hold up against ISU's passing game. I can only hope that the Iowa DL completely harasses Richardson. However, on paper, the 2014 Iowa DL should have been every bit as good as the 2015 DL ... and yet they weren't very impressive against the ISU OL.
So what should we expect?
This time every year, I'm always surprised by the confidence of some Iowa fans. This series hasn't been kind to the Hawks over the past couple of decades. A number of times, ISU has looked horrendous in game 1 and beaten a favored Iowa team. Prior to those games, Iowa fans cited ISU's deficiencies as reason for an Iowa romp. Admittedly, the Hawks have blown them out a few times, but not very darn many, and ISU has blown us out, too (will never forget sitting among ISU fans as they blew out #9 Iowa about a decade ago). Most have been close, and ISU has been right there with us in W's and L's.
I'll take an easy Iowa win any day, but if history is any guide, we should all be expecting a close one and understanding that there's a good chance ISU comes out with the win.
I'll take an easy Iowa win any day, but if history is any guide, we should all be expecting a close one and understanding that there's a good chance ISU comes out with the win.
That blow out in 2005 was more of an aberration than anything. ISU may still win, but that game is closer if Tate doesn't get a concussion tackling an ISU defender....
I'd like to treat this game, each year, like how I felt before the 2009 game. Terrified after our performance against UNI and then absolutely stunned by how we owned the Cyclones in Ames.
Something else to add that I mentioned in another thread. The losing team has performed worse on 3rd down in all but 2 of the last 11 meetings (2006......and last year
).The common factor between those two games? Anemic passing offenses.
Bad assumption. illinois state and UNI split last year.
- UNI beat illinois state at home 42-28 and then illinois state beat UNI at home 41-21
- UNI lost 11 regular starters. seven on offense and four on defense
- illinois state lost 14 regular starters. Seven on offense and seven on defense
- UNI replaced four regular starters on the OL
- illinois state replaced three regular starters on the OL
- UNI had three preseason all americans(and MVC all conference) in the defensive backfield, and three MVC all conference players.on the DL and LB
- illinois state had three MVC all conference players total
I always laugh when people make this claim. Your QB got knocked out tackling a defender after he threw an INT. That pretty much sums it up. your starting QB threw a pick six to make the game 16-0
Pretty sure the back-up QB threw the pick 6, right? Manson threw the pick 6, as I recall, and he was the back-up, unless I'm mistaken. Not that it really makes any difference -- Iowa got their butts kicked that day.
You are correct. It was Manson.
http://espn.go.com/ncf/recap?id=252530066
Tate, the Big Ten's preseason offensive player of the year, was hurt tackling Steve Paris after throwing an interception with Iowa trailing 9-0. He first was examined on the sideline before walking to the locker room and watching the second half in sweat clothes.
Jason Manson, a junior who has played little in his career, replaced Tate. On his third play, he fired a pass to Hinkel that Iowa State's Adam Carper tipped. The ball went right to Hicks playing deep and he ran untouched down the left sideline, giving the Cyclones a 16-0 lead.
UNI looked like hot garbage against Iowa State except for their secondary. I think it is fair to say that Illinois State will be the better team. UNI's offense looks like it will struggle big time this year and their special teams were very bad as well.
But just say you assume that the teams were equal. Iowa still looked better.
But I don't think it matters how each team did the first week because this series has been so unpredictable. Iowa should win but that doesn't mean much. I do think that Iowa is looking for revenge this year and think they will pull out a close win where they score late to win the game.
But just say you assume that the teams were equal. Iowa still looked better.
But I don't think it matters how each team did the first week because this series has been so unpredictable. Iowa should win but that doesn't mean much. I do think that Iowa is looking for revenge this year and think they will pull out a close win where they score late to win the game.
explain.
UNI returns 6 all conference and three preseason All americans on defense and is hands down better than an offense that returns four starters.
UNI's offense and Illinois states defense both suck
You must be looking in a different place than I am because I only see one preseason all american on defense for UNI and that is Kilfoy. Illinois State has two preseason all Americans in Corwin and Meehan (watch list player for FCS defensive player of the year) on defense and two on offense in Coprich and Roberson.
Illinois State has two first team all conference defenders in Corwin and Meehan and probably the two best offensive players in the conference. One of the all conference selections for UNI is the place kicker. hardly relevant.
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I'm going to make a somewhat bold prediction...
Our defensive line is far superior to their offensive line. Jaleel Johnson was the unsung hero from last week. He was shoving his blocker in the face of the QB on a lot of plays causing Roberson to scramble from the get go. Drew Ott is well.. Drew Ott. The entire defensive line was wreaking havoc last week. It just didn't show up on the stat line for players like Bazata, Meyers and Johnson.
It's going to be hard for Richardson to throw an accurate pass with defenders in his face. If Iowa contained Roberson they way they did, it will be the same for Richardson. Roberson is better on his feet than Richardson.
Watching Mabin's interview and seeing him roll his eyes when they mentioned the greatness of Lazard made me happy. I don't think our secondary has the same opinion about Lazard as the media does. I took the eye rolling as he knew it would come up and he may be tired of hearing about him. He, as well as others, may be confident that the secondary can stop the ISU's wide receivers. I think the Iowa secondary wants to make a statement this weekend.
These two things being considered. This will free up the LB's to fly to the ball. This team has a different attitude this year than in past years. I see a lot of what we saw last week happening this week on defense. Iowa dominated Illinois State. ISU didn't pull away from UNI until late in the game.
Every scoring drive ISU had in that game began in UNI territory. ISU started with great field position a lot of the game and only scored 31 points. Any time ISU started on their side of the field, it was a punt. ISU only gained 8 more yards of total offense than UNI.
As for the offense, we will move the ball just like we did against Illinois State. Our pass blocking seems to be a strength for the offensive line. Although we showed a couple new wrinkles in the offense, our play calling was vanilla. So I will call what we saw last week vanilla with some chocolate sprinkles.
Whether ISU wants to believe it or not, CJ is a threat to throw down field. ISU won't be able to stack the box in the same way they did with JR. CJ will make ISU pay if the attempt to stack the box and stop the run. I expect GD to keep the ISU defense off balance the entire game. Because ISU won't be able to stack the box, this will open things up for the run game.
This is where throwing some chocolate sprinkles in the game plan last week will work to Iowa's advantage. ISU now has to take time to prepare for those things and they can't focus on Iowa's normally vanilla attack. It will make things easier on the offense as a whole even if we went straight vanilla with our play calling against ISU.
ISU's defense wasn't anything special against UNI. They didn't dominate the way Iowa did. Ill St gained 166 yards of their 231 in the last 3 possessions of the game; which happened in the 4th quarter against Iowa's 2nd and 3rd stringers. The Iowa defense held the most prolific offense in FCS last year to 66 yards through 3 quarters.
This leads me to my prediction...
38-13 Iowa.
Our defensive line is far superior to their offensive line. Jaleel Johnson was the unsung hero from last week. He was shoving his blocker in the face of the QB on a lot of plays causing Roberson to scramble from the get go. Drew Ott is well.. Drew Ott. The entire defensive line was wreaking havoc last week. It just didn't show up on the stat line for players like Bazata, Meyers and Johnson.
It's going to be hard for Richardson to throw an accurate pass with defenders in his face. If Iowa contained Roberson they way they did, it will be the same for Richardson. Roberson is better on his feet than Richardson.
Watching Mabin's interview and seeing him roll his eyes when they mentioned the greatness of Lazard made me happy. I don't think our secondary has the same opinion about Lazard as the media does. I took the eye rolling as he knew it would come up and he may be tired of hearing about him. He, as well as others, may be confident that the secondary can stop the ISU's wide receivers. I think the Iowa secondary wants to make a statement this weekend.
These two things being considered. This will free up the LB's to fly to the ball. This team has a different attitude this year than in past years. I see a lot of what we saw last week happening this week on defense. Iowa dominated Illinois State. ISU didn't pull away from UNI until late in the game.
Every scoring drive ISU had in that game began in UNI territory. ISU started with great field position a lot of the game and only scored 31 points. Any time ISU started on their side of the field, it was a punt. ISU only gained 8 more yards of total offense than UNI.
As for the offense, we will move the ball just like we did against Illinois State. Our pass blocking seems to be a strength for the offensive line. Although we showed a couple new wrinkles in the offense, our play calling was vanilla. So I will call what we saw last week vanilla with some chocolate sprinkles.
Whether ISU wants to believe it or not, CJ is a threat to throw down field. ISU won't be able to stack the box in the same way they did with JR. CJ will make ISU pay if the attempt to stack the box and stop the run. I expect GD to keep the ISU defense off balance the entire game. Because ISU won't be able to stack the box, this will open things up for the run game.
This is where throwing some chocolate sprinkles in the game plan last week will work to Iowa's advantage. ISU now has to take time to prepare for those things and they can't focus on Iowa's normally vanilla attack. It will make things easier on the offense as a whole even if we went straight vanilla with our play calling against ISU.
ISU's defense wasn't anything special against UNI. They didn't dominate the way Iowa did. Ill St gained 166 yards of their 231 in the last 3 possessions of the game; which happened in the 4th quarter against Iowa's 2nd and 3rd stringers. The Iowa defense held the most prolific offense in FCS last year to 66 yards through 3 quarters.
This leads me to my prediction...
38-13 Iowa.
These debates are futile and irrelevant.
Game Results:
2014: ISU 20 Iowa 17
2013: Iowa 27 ISU 21
2012: ISU 9 Iowa 6
2011: ISU 44 Iowa 41
2010: Iowa 35 ISU 7
2009: Iowa 35 ISU 3
2008: Iowa 18 ISU 5
2007: ISU 15 Iowa 13
2006: Iowa 27 ISU 17
2005: ISU 23 Iowa 3
2004: Iowa 17 ISU 10
2003: Iowa 40 ISU 21
(I know ISU won 5 in a row from 1998-2002 and Iowa won 15 in a row from 1983-1997)
For the most part, in the recent history of the rivalry, Iowa wins comfortably or loses close in the final stanza. Even the 2013game was a dominant Iowa victory, despite the score tightening at the end.
Prediction:
Iowa 27
Iowa State 17
If it's a nail-biter, expect Iowa to leave Ames with another 3 point loss.
So Iowa is good at everything and ISU is bad at everything and even the things that looked good for ISU on Saturday aren't actually good. Lazard is overrated. Furthermore Iowa saved most of its playbook while ISU showed its entire hand. Thanks for the heads up. Doesn't seem like a game worth watching. I probably won't waste my time. Haha!
A few problems with your logic:
- Illinois State had 3 new starters on the OL
- Illinois State had to replace their top 3 receiving targets from the prior year (2 WRs and 1 TE)
Thus, while the Illinois State O was definitely prolific last year - they also had a lot of important "moving parts" that they had to replace. Going against an Iowa D that was embarrassed by their final games of the season ... it wasn't going to be a favorable situation for the Illinois State O.
Iowa State returns A LOT of guys with experience on the OL. Maybe not every guy is a returning regular starter - but nearly every guy has quality experience. Furthermore, Iowa State's WRs really are quite good. The "only" major hole in the Cyclone O is their running game. However, they likely weren't going to be terribly successful at running the ball against us anyhow. As it is, they're going to use the mobility of their QB as a means of frustrating the D. They may not rack up a lot of yards on the ground against the Hawk D, but it probably will help them to move the chains.
Thus, while Illinois State may have returned a little bit more fire-power in terms of their running game - Iowa State has the potential to flash more firepower against Iowa's D. Also, as other posters have already noted - the ISU OL is much further ahead development-wise than the Illinois State OL. While I am very bullish on Iowa's DL, I don't think that Ott and Johnson will be able to be the "bulls in the china shop" that we'd hope they'd be.
I'm also curious with regard to how well the Iowa O will be able to move the ball against the Cyclone D. The good news is that the very presence of Beathard at QB will force the Cyclone D to be weary of Iowa's vertical routes. The Cyclones will invariably TRY to bring down the safeties in order to get extra hats in the box - but I honestly believe that Beathard is capable of making them pay. The bigger question will be whether Iowa has WRs who can make the ISU secondary pay for playing too much man and/or press-coverage.
I remember back in 2008 - knowledgeable ISU fans were far more nervous about Stanzi being the QB than Christensen. That was because Stanzi was willing to use his feet to pick up yards AND he was willing to give his WRs a chance to make plays. Those attributes made him a much bigger danger to their D. Similarly, I feel that Beathard will similarly concern those same ISU fans. Oddly enough, Stanzi started that game back in '08 - and the ISU D totally held him in check. Christensen ended up being the "hero" of that game, helping lead Iowa to victory.
What did I say that was wrong? I didn't say Lazard was overrated. You just did. He hasn't proven anything yet, and he's still a sophomore. He was impressive on punt returns vs UNI, but that doesn't mean he will have the same success against Iowa.
ISU couldn't score when the offense started on the ISU side of the field. Fact.
ISU only mustered 310 yards of total offense to UNI's 302 yards of total offense. Fact.
UNI out rushed ISU. Fact.
ISU didn't show any ability to sustain long drives against UNI. What makes you think they can against Iowa's defense?
That ISU Oline also allowed 4 sacks and forcing a fumble on a run by Richardson resulting in a 1 yard loss. Thank God it was recovered by ISU, right?
Lets not act like experience on the Oline is exclusive to ISU. While Ill St did lose three starters on the Oline their replacements got significant playing time the year prior.
Ill St's Oline averaged 6-5 299 lbs, and the three new starters played an average of 11 games per last year. So the new players on the Oline had quite a bit of experience from the previous year.
ISU's Oline averages 6-6 305 lbs. That's not a huge difference from Ill St's Oline.
I always laugh when Cyclone fans reply saying it wouldn't have made a difference. That was right at the end of the 2nd qtr and it was Manson that threw the pick, on a deflected ball no less. In fact, it was that very first series after Tate went out with his concussion.
But as a Cyclone fan, of course you're going to defiantly say that the game still would've been 23-3 had Tate played the whole way. I just always get to laugh at that. So thank you, I guess.
isu is just awesome they out gained UNI by 8 yards. Maybe isu can rely on poor punting by every opponent so they can start on the opponents side of the 50 multiple times each game.
That is an obvious winning formula in my book. Maybe Pollard should put up a billboard.
ISU does have a veteran line returning, but from what I saw on Saturday night, it was mediocre at best, especially since their O-line is far superior than UNI's D-Line. If ISU wants to be competitive in the game Saturday their O-line will need to step up. But if they play like they did Saturday, Richardson will be on his back more than a high school scout team running back.
Hence why I picked Iowa to win 35-17.
Hence why I picked Iowa to win 35-17.
You are a sharp one there Fido. How about 12 UNI punts and 193 return yards by ISU. I will leave you to figure the implications of those numbers. Hint: shorter fields would indicate less yardage to travel.
Yep a sustainable strategy for isu to win games is to rely on 193 yards of returns each and every week. No one will ever look at tape will they?
Again relying on 193 in return yards is easily repeatable and so isu should go undefeated.
Clone fan logic can never be laughed at. Just ask them.
Fido, short fields resulted in a 31-7 fairly easy win with 10-14 points left on the field. If it was expected for ISU to have a plus margin of 24 points each week, then field position would be crucial and expected. But no-one is expecting that so we will just take wins. If I need to slow it down for you......... Just bark again
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