ADVERTISEMENT

IOWA@isu predictions

Fido, short fields resulted in a 31-7 fairly easy win with 10-14 points left on the field. If it was expected for ISU to have a plus margin of 24 points each week, then field position would be crucial and expected. But no-one is expecting that so we will just take wins. If I need to slow it down for you......... Just bark again

Iowa played a team that was better than UNI and was up 31-0 before ISU scored on our reserves.

I can type this slower for you but we know you won't be able to comprehend it anyway.
 
You are a sharp one there Fido. How about 12 UNI punts and 193 return yards by ISU. I will leave you to figure the implications of those numbers. Hint: shorter fields would indicate less yardage to travel.

And yet when ISU started with the ball on their side of the field, they failed to put any points on the board.

Iowa scored on drives of:

13 plays, 81 yards - Touchdown
12 plays, 99 yards - Touchdown
5 plays (-15 yds for personal foul against Iowa), 45 yards - 40 yard Field Goal to end the half
13 plays, 57 yards - Touchdown
10 plays, 66 yards - Touchdown

Funny... Every Iowa scoring drive began on Iowa's side of the field.

The score of the ISU vs UNI game is not an indicator of how the game went. ISU struggled for the majority of the game. At the same time, the score of the Iowa vs Illinois State game is not an indicator of how the game went. Iowa dominated Illinois State by more than the score would indicate.
 
Bad assumption. illinois state and UNI split last year.

  • UNI beat illinois state at home 42-28 and then illinois state beat UNI at home 41-21
  • UNI lost 11 regular starters. seven on offense and four on defense
  • illinois state lost 14 regular starters. Seven on offense and seven on defense
  • UNI replaced four regular starters on the OL
  • illinois state replaced three regular starters on the OL
  • UNI had three preseason all americans(and MVC all conference) in the defensive backfield, and three MVC all conference players.on the DL and LB
  • illinois state had three MVC all conference players total
In short...Illinois state is nowhere near the same team they were last year and neither is UNI. UNI returns more starters and more all confernece/All American players. I don't htink either fanbase can really draw much from the first game
But not the starting QB and UNIs stunk.
 
And yet when ISU started with the ball on their side of the field, they failed to put any points on the board.

Iowa scored on drives of:

13 plays, 81 yards - Touchdown
12 plays, 99 yards - Touchdown
5 plays (-15 yds for personal foul against Iowa), 45 yards - 40 yard Field Goal to end the half
13 plays, 57 yards - Touchdown
10 plays, 66 yards - Touchdown

Funny... Every Iowa scoring drive began on Iowa's side of the field.

The score of the ISU vs UNI game is not an indicator of how the game went. ISU struggled for the majority of the game. At the same time, the score of the Iowa vs Illinois State game is not an indicator of how the game went. Iowa dominated Illinois State by more than the score would indicate.
Hawks had significant size and speed advantages in the trenches and skill positions over Ill St, which they will not have in Ames. The hawks didn't move up and down the field in losing at kinnick last year, so I would be very surprised if they were able to against a team that is more talented, experienced, and deeper than last year's ISU's team.
 
From your answer, I am guessing you didn't see the Iowa State game. If I hadn't seen both games and was judging off of the scores, my view on next weekend's game wouldn't have changed much either.

First, let's assume that UNI and Illinois State are both good BCS teams, however, Illinois State is the higher ranked team. Iowa dominated Illinois State on the field and on the scoreboard. ISU dominated Northern Iowa on the scoreboard, but the game on the field was a bit unusual.

The ISU-Northern Iowa score looked like it did because UNI continually shot itself in the foot in the battle for field position. Because of UNI's inability to cover punts and two costly turnovers, Iowa State started 6 drives in the 2nd and 3th quarters at its 49 or better. And, 3 of those drives started no farther away from the goal line than UNIs 26 yard line. And yet, the ISU offense (remember one score was a punt return) could put no more than 24 points on the board against UNI.

UNI played this game with a first-time starter who was replaced late in the 3rd quarter for being ineffective. UNI seemingly had 3 and out after 3 and out during the first three quarters, then their punter would come in and kick a low line drive punt to Allan Lazard who was able to repeatedly catch the ball with no UNI player within 15 yards of him (seriously, I am not exaggerating).

ISU returned 8 punts, averaging 24.1 yards per return. That is 8 punts with a net punting average on those 8 punts of under 20 yards. That is barely different than if UNI had thrown 8 interceptions. Add that to the two costly turnovers that UNI actually had, and it is like ISU was the beneficiary of 10 UNI turnovers, yet the ISU offense could only put 24 points on the board.

ISU's defense might be average. It is hard to tell because UNI's offense was so bad. On offense, ISU's receivers are above average, their quarterback is average, and their line is below average, and their running backs are awful. The place where a Big 5 school is suppose to impose its will against a BCS defense is with the line play and rushing attack. ISU only gained 77 yards rushing on 2.4 yards per carry. If you take away one long run, they gained 44 yards on 1.3 yard per carry against UNI.

ISU is not going to beat Iowa on the ground. They have a passing game that is probably above average, but Iowa's strength on defense is probably against the passing game. As long as Iowa either punts away from Allan Lazard or is decent in punt coverage, I feel much better about Iowa's chances against ISU than I did 48 hours ago. Much better.
Fabulous post and great info
 
Hawks had significant size and speed advantages in the trenches and skill positions over Ill St, which they will not have in Ames. The hawks didn't move up and down the field in losing at kinnick last year, so I would be very surprised if they were able to against a team that is more talented, experienced, and deeper than last year's ISU's team.

Iowa State had a significant size and speed advantage over UNI but struggled so they won't be able to go up and down the field against a more talented, faster, and deeper Iowa team.
 
Iowa State had a significant size and speed advantage over UNI but struggled so they won't be able to go up and down the field against a more talented, faster, and deeper Iowa team.

Don't go using facts that Pollard hasn't tweeted out. That always confuses clone fans.
 
And yet when ISU started with the ball on their side of the field, they failed to put any points on the board.

Iowa scored on drives of:

13 plays, 81 yards - Touchdown
12 plays, 99 yards - Touchdown
5 plays (-15 yds for personal foul against Iowa), 45 yards - 40 yard Field Goal to end the half
13 plays, 57 yards - Touchdown
10 plays, 66 yards - Touchdown

Funny... Every Iowa scoring drive began on Iowa's side of the field.

The score of the ISU vs UNI game is not an indicator of how the game went. ISU struggled for the majority of the game. At the same time, the score of the Iowa vs Illinois State game is not an indicator of how the game went. Iowa dominated Illinois State by more than the score would indicate.

Not fair Gary, you can't use facts and simple logic when dealing with clone fans. It is funny just how little they actually know about college football. Then again when it has been 100 plus years since they have had a conference champion in football the only really good teams they tend to see are representing other schools.

But clone fans are sure UNI is much bigger and faster than Illinois State because they say so.
 
Honest question for some of the ISU fans who spend a lot of time on this Hawkeye messageboard ... Why?

To each his own ... just don't understand what entices you ... And I am not just talking about during rivalry week ...
 
Hawks had significant size and speed advantages in the trenches and skill positions over Ill St, which they will not have in Ames. The hawks didn't move up and down the field in losing at kinnick last year, so I would be very surprised if they were able to against a team that is more talented, experienced, and deeper than last year's ISU's team.

OK. Whatever you say.
 
Honest question for some of the ISU fans who spend a lot of time on this Hawkeye messageboard ... Why?

To each his own ... just don't understand what entices you ... And I am not just talking about during rivalry week ...
Fair question...... There are a number of hawk fans on this site that make disparaging claims about ISU on a regular basis that are baseless and inflamatory in nature. I choose to call them out regularly. If these fans don't like to be called out on these claims, then don't make baseless claims or they can pay the subscription to the pay board.
 
Fair question...... There are a number of hawk fans on this site that make disparaging claims about ISU on a regular basis that are baseless and inflamatory in nature. I choose to call them out regularly. If these fans don't like to be called out on these claims, then don't make baseless claims or they can pay the subscription to the pay board.

I tell you what I have a deal for you. I will call out Hawk fans that make baseless claims about isu or disparging remarks on this site or other Hawk sites if you will do the same and police clone fans and their remarks towards Iowa on cyclone fanatic.

If clone fans are as innocent as you claim you should sign up for this in a heartbeat. If however clone fans behave as I have claimed they do, you won't have any time to read this web site because it will all be spent smacking around clone fans.

So do we have a deal? Please say yes, please say yes, PLEASE!!!!!!!
 
I tell you what I have a deal for you. I will call out Hawk fans that make baseless claims about isu or disparging remarks on this site or other Hawk sites if you will do the same and police clone fans and their remarks towards Iowa on cyclone fanatic.

If clone fans are as innocent as you claim you should sign up for this in a heartbeat. If however clone fans behave as I have claimed they do, you won't have any time to read this web site because it will all be spent smacking around clone fans.

So do we have a deal? Please say yes, please say yes, PLEASE!!!!!!!
I don't post on cyclonefanatic. I am on the pay board at Rivals. The interesting part is I have many friends that are Iowa alums and they talk smack but it is always good natured. Some of the hawk fans that I know that did not attend Iowa have a tendency to make the disparaging remarks that are baseless. I don't know if there is a correlation there or not but it is interesting.
 
I predict the Loyal Sons will be screaming their Clonehead brains out for their heavily laden jucotransfer defense. I predict ISU will attempt to disrupt Iowa's signal calling with piped-in noise well into the snap count, and then claim all schools do it. I predict they will feel so big time proud now that they have one endzone enclosed. I predict a lot of drunkeness. I predict Cloneheads go heavenly bonkers if their team ever takes the lead over our middle of the pack B10 team. I predict a full stadium for their Super Bowl with the aid of significant ticket specials and that the program will use photos of same for marketing. I predict JTS will not sell out again this year if they lose. I predict a great majority of the Clone demograhic will cheer wildly for Donald Trump. I predict very few Clone fans who project a Clone victory would be willing to bet their team straight up, even though the game is in LAmes. I predict the Hawkeyes win barring multiple unfortunate turnovers. I gave away my amazingly inexpensive tickets to save my ears and sanity from all the loud bravado lunacy, and will switch the TV channel to a different game when this one is over.
Iowa 28-17. Go Hawks. God Bless Hayden Fry
 
I don't post on cyclonefanatic. I am on the pay board at Rivals. The interesting part is I have many friends that are Iowa alums and they talk smack but it is always good natured. Some of the hawk fans that I know that did not attend Iowa have a tendency to make the disparaging remarks that are baseless. I don't know if there is a correlation there or not but it is interesting.

I could care less if you post there or not. Get a login and take the challenge. I mean if you are so offended by disparaging remarks and baseless claims then take up your cause by policing your own precious clone fans.

In the end you know I am right and won't go anywhere near my challenge. No clone fan will. If you did you would be spending all your time smacking around clone fans and on a clone fan web site no doubt. It would be fun to watch though.
 
Last edited:
All my logic has told me to expect a bomb of a season this year, and I would have welcomed if it that's what it took to send stale-bread Ferentz out to pasture. But I had a sneaking suspicion this team would surprise. We've been hearing rhetoric about a changed culture all off-season, but . . . all evidence shows it really has. It's dangerous to take too much from one game, since KF has several times done something contrary to his norm, then reverted to type the next game (by the way, if he does this on Saturday, we lose by double digits). So he could prove me a fool for this, but I'm buying in. Ferentz is a smart man; he knows he needs to follow through with these changes, and I'm going with my gut instinct of a surprisingly good season.

So, here's what I envision.

Iowa starts with the ball, like we always do, and grinds down the field steadily for a score. Iowa State comes out attacking us, trying to exploit a perceived strength in their receivers. But our secondary is strong, and they will make them pay with an interception-I pick Mabin but it could be any of them. Then we matriculate down the field for another score. Right off the bat, we're up 10-14 points and JTS falls into stunned silence. (as an aside, I had the chance to drive by it today, and I must admit it looks really nice)

Now, I don't think the margin between the teams is enough for this to be a blowout, so the lead doesn't extend beyond that. There's a lot of back and forth, but Iowa is good enough to keep the Cyclones at arm's length. Daniels and Canzeri each have 100+ combined yards again this week, and Iowa comes home with a 31-17 victory.
 
Here's the prediction certain to come true. Win or lose Iowa state fans will say the dumbest commentary of the football weekend, if not season..
 
Hawks had significant size and speed advantages in the trenches and skill positions over Ill St, which they will not have in Ames. The hawks didn't move up and down the field in losing at kinnick last year, so I would be very surprised if they were able to against a team that is more talented, experienced, and deeper than last year's ISU's team.
Good thing ISU's team got better while Iowa's remained exactly the same right?

We don't have a chance this Saturday. Really, it shouldn't even be close.
 
Id still consider that a chronic problem. This is generally accepted as what should be the easiest portion of the schedule. 5-6 years out of 25 is not good.
Going back to this, I wanted to say I am curious to see where Iowa stands among college football record-wise in the month of September.

See what our overall record is compared to others and how many times other teams have gone undefeated. That will take some work though, but I would like to see how many other teams have had more than 6 perfect September records in the last 25 years or so.
 
  • Like
Reactions: sford07
Lets just agree both teams played FCS competition the first week. Neither UNI or Ill State are that good and both teams will struggle in the FCS ranks this year. Ill state was highly ranked, but that was based off of last years results.

Going solely on Iowa and ISU. The advantage for each team are about equal. ISU has a good WR core and a good QB. Their OLine is suspect and their RB's are average. Iowa's defensive line is good, LB are suspect, and our DB's are good. So I would say if anything Iowa might have a slight advantage in this area to a draw. I think this will be a good match-up for both teams.

Offense Iowa has average line, WR, good QB and RB. ISU defense is about the same, so that is draw.

Special teams will be key in this game. Both teams have decent special teams and getting points is going to be key. Can't give up big returns and can't allow for any stupid TO's in the special teams game.

I think it will start off ugly as both teams are not good. Which ever team can control the ball and get first downs will win this game.

Iowa 34
ISU 21


I think the hawks make just enough plays and I think they will play with some added emotion after what happened last year and also earlier this week.
 
Going back to this, I wanted to say I am curious to see where Iowa stands among college football record-wise in the month of September.

See what our overall record is compared to others and how many times other teams have gone undefeated. That will take some work though, but I would like to see how many other teams have had more than 6 perfect September records in the last 25 years or so.

I can do that, as I'll have some down time at work today. Let me get back to you later.
 
Clones will obviously be playing pants-on-fire. If the Hawks match that, they stand a great chance. If this team is truly changed, it will show on the field tomorrow.

It's a must win for both teams. Buckle up.
 
It is up to Iowa's offense to produce. Even last year when Iowa's LBs were not very good they held Iowa state to about 80 yds rushing and just a little over 300 yards total offense. I don't see ISU scoring more than 20 points against Iowa so it is up to Iowa's offense to put points on the board. Last year Rudock was atrocious in the Iowa State game and so was the running game. I think the offense showed some promise in the first game and I think that is why Iowa comes out with the win. I think it will be close though something like 23-17 or 27-20
 
Going back to this, I wanted to say I am curious to see where Iowa stands among college football record-wise in the month of September.

See what our overall record is compared to others and how many times other teams have gone undefeated. That will take some work though, but I would like to see how many other teams have had more than 6 perfect September records in the last 25 years or so.

I'd be interested in that as well. Particularly in comparison to a team to which we compare ourselves to, like Wisconsin.
 
OK, gotta run so I can't give full results just now. I looked at current power 5 teams plus BYU and Notre Dame. I counted ties as a half win/half loss, so a month with all wins and one tie did NOT count as a perfect September. Here are the results just for Iowa:

September winning percentage is: 0.657
Rank: 30 / 66
High: Ohio State with 0.909
Low: Duke with 0.379

Number of perfect Septembers: 5
Rank: T32 / 66
High: Ohio State with 16
Low: UNC/Wake/Duke/'Cuse/Ole Miss/Illinois with 1
 
Clones will obviously be playing pants-on-fire. If the Hawks match that, they stand a great chance. If this team is truly changed, it will show on the field tomorrow.

It's a must win for both teams. Buckle up.

How is this a must win for both teams? It's not a must win for either team unless you think either team has a legitimate shot at a national title.
 
Alrighty, so here's some more detail. I won't write out two tables of 66 teams as that's just too much, so here are the teams with 10+ perfect Septembers, plus other teams of note, and their win pct.

1.....Ohio State.....16.....0.909
2.....Florida St.......15.....0.880
2.....Oklahoma.....15.....0.841
4.....Florida...........14.....0.879
4.....Kansas St......14.....0.851
4.....Nebraska.......14....0.883
7.....Alabama........12....0.790
8.....VA Tech..........10....0.766
8.....Wisconsin......10.....0.793
10...Michigan.........9.....0.787
10...Penn State......9.....0.738
22...Minnesota.......6....0.624
32....Iowa................5....0.657
32....N'western......5.....0.589
32....Notre Dame...5.....0.629
41....Iowa State......4.....0.566
41....Michigan St....4.....0.636
41....Purdue............4....0.599
48....Indiana............3....0.531
55....Maryland........2.....0.581
55....Rutgers...........2.....0.566
61....Illinois.............1......0.500
 
This is an excellent post. Well done sir. I pretty much had the same thoughts. It was more of UNI killing itself than ISU winning. Iowa should win the battle at the DL of scrimmage and ISU will have a long day with our running game. If we avoid special teams mistakes and turnovers I see a Hawk win in the 27-17 range

I don't like prognosticating based on week 1 games vs FCS opponents who both lost talent from their smaller-schollie rosters. I do expect both ISU and UNI to have respectable seasons in the Gateway (I'm not calling it the Missouri Valley, old habits and whatnot). I liked how the Hawks played last Saturday, but this is a different week against a big conference opponent and a rival (it sucks that Iowa State is a true rival, but it's a fact since the turn of the century).
 
Not that it matters too much, but I think Iowa has 6 in the last 25 years, if we're just counting games played in the month of September. There were a couple of quirky years in there such as 2001 (ISU game moved to November) and 2013 (NIU game was on August 30th). I know that's probably stat-spinning a bit, but hey the OP for this question just talked about September, so that's what he got. :p

Anyway, thanks for putting in the time! You had to figure most of the traditional power teams would have a ton of perfect starts. Some of that is scheduling of course, but more often than not, those teams are in the national title discussion each year.

And how big is the Iowa State game on our schedule as it pertains to starting strong? Of the 9 seasons the Cyclones defeated us in the Ferentz era, Iowa would've had just 3 more perfect months had they defeated Iowa State. As I mentioned 2001 is an outlier. The only seasons Iowa would've started the season undefeated with an extra win over Iowa State are 2002 (obvious), 2011 (would be 4-0 before loss at Penn State, 13-3), and 2014 (would be 6-0 going into the Maryland game).

In those remaining 5 seasons, Iowa lost at least one other September game (1999, 2000, 2005, 2007, 2012).

So really this just further reinforces the theory that the Iowa State game gauges how good an Iowa team will be. There's no telling how Iowa would've done against other competition had they beaten Iowa State in those seasons they lost, but these stats only support the line of Iowa typically being an 8+ win (good to great) team with a win, and a 7 or less win (average or worse) team with a loss to Iowa State.

We'll see what Iowa expects to be after tomorrow.
 
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT