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March 17 ESPN Bracketology: #10 IOWA Beats #2 Tennessee to Advance to Sweet 16

I do not believe that the Big10 will get 10 teams in , just as I do not believe the Big 12 will get 8 teams in . Those are numbers that would be records probably for both conferences. Heck, 8 of 10 from the Big 12 is 80% and I really doubt that ANY league has had that high a percent get in. I am thinking the Big 10 will be somewhere are around 7-8 and the Big 12 will be 6-7.

The Big 12 has an infinitely better chance at getting 8 than the B1G does at getting 10. That said, the B1G is trending more towards 8 while the 7 seems to be a lock for the Big 12, maybe 8, as long as Texas/TCU/Oklahoma don’t pull an Indiana.
 
Here’s where I think many people on the matrix are missing it and the number one bracketologist out there is nailing it (Iowa as a 4 seed). Iowa’s SOS is tripping people up mostly due to a bad NCONSOS. The committee however will look at that and say yeah that’s bad however they won every single game and most by a convincing amount. I don’t think the actual non con rank there will hurt us the way it is now for people who have Iowa as a 6,7,8. ZERO quad 2,3,4 losses, average NET loss under 15, and 8 quad 1 and 2 wins.. Our company for those three factors? Virginia and Michigan State

Here is the disconnect : Virginia and MSU are currently #1 and #6 on the Net Ranking, while Iowa is #27. Although Net Ranking is not the only factor for your seed, I am guessing it wont' be far off, and this is the book of record for the NCAA selection committee. Personally I thought it sucked earlier, but as time goes on, it seems to be getting more accurate. For example, Nebraska is falling like a rock on Net Ranking, which they should. At one time they were top 15.
 
Here is the disconnect : Virginia and MSU are currently #1 and #6 on the Net Ranking, while Iowa is #27. Although Net Ranking is not the only factor for your seed, I am guessing it wont' be far off, and this is the book of record for the NCAA selection committee. Personally I thought it sucked earlier, but as time goes on, it seems to be getting more accurate. For example, Nebraska is falling like a rock on Net Ranking, which they should. At one time they were top 15.
That post was also before two recent losses
 
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Feb 1 BRACKETOLOGY

Lunardi is still projecting 10 B1G teams


Iowa is STILL a 6 seed but NOW in the Midwest (Des Moines!!!), will beat #11 St Johns in the 1st round and then beat #3 Kansas in the 2nd round. Iowa then will face/beat #2 North Carolina and #1 seed Tennessee to advance to the Final 4 in Minneapolis!!!
We're getting close to home!!
 
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Here is the disconnect : Virginia and MSU are currently #1 and #6 on the Net Ranking, while Iowa is #27. Although Net Ranking is not the only factor for your seed, I am guessing it wont' be far off, and this is the book of record for the NCAA selection committee. Personally I thought it sucked earlier, but as time goes on, it seems to be getting more accurate. For example, Nebraska is falling like a rock on Net Ranking, which they should. At one time they were top 15.
I thought Iowa or ISU had to be at least a 4 seed to make it to Des Moines for the 1st 2 rounds

Is that wrong? Or does Lunardi not know this?
 
Feb 5 BRACKETOLOGY

Lunardi is NOW projecting 9 (instead of 10) B1G teams. Nebbie is OUT!


Iowa is STILL a 6 seed but NOW in the South (Tulsa), will beat #11 Wofford in the 1st round and then beat #3 Marquette in the 2nd round. Iowa then will face/beat #2 Michigan and #1 seed Virginia to advance to the Final 4 in Minneapolis!!!



The 9 B1G teams:
--NOTE: Nebbie is not part of EITHER the First Four Out OR the Next Four Out


Midwest (Tennessee is 1 Seed)
5 Wisconsin
11 Indiana (last four bye)

West (Gonzaga is 1 Seed)
6 Maryland
2 Michigan State

East (Duke is 1 Seed)

9 Ohio State (last four bye)
3 Purdue

South (Virginia is 1 seed)
9 Minnesota
6 Iowa
2 Michigan

LINK to ESPN Bracketology: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
 
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Here's how Iowa can earn its way to Des Moines:

https://www.hawkcentral.com/story/s...ournament-in-des-moines-heres-how/2807834002/


Feb 8 BRACKETOLOGY

Lunardi is NOW projecting 8 (instead of 10) B1G teams. Debbie AND IU (first 4 out) are OUT!

Iowa is STILL a 6 seed but NOW in the Midwest (Jacksonville), will beat #11 Florida in the 1st round and then beat #3 Louisville in the 2nd round. Iowa then will face/beat #2 Michigan and #1 seed Tennessee to advance to the Final 4 in Minneapolis!!!



The 8 B1G teams:

Midwest (Tennessee is #1 Seed)
5 Wisconsin (in Hartford)
6 Iowa (in Jacksonville)
2 Michigan (in Columbus)


West (Gonzaga is #1 Seed)
6 Maryland


East (Duke is #1 Seed)
9 Ohio State (Last 4 bye)
2 Michigan State


South (Virginia is #1 Seed)
3 Purdue
10 Minnesota (Last 4 bye)


LINK to ESPN Bracketology: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology


Feb 5 BRACKETOLOGY

Lunardi is NOW projecting 9 (instead of 10) B1G teams. Nebbie is OUT!


Iowa is STILL a 6 seed but NOW in the South (Tulsa), will beat #11 Wofford in the 1st round and then beat #3 Marquette in the 2nd round. Iowa then will face/beat #2 Michigan and #1 seed Virginia to advance to the Final 4 in Minneapolis!!!


LINK to ESPN Bracketology: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology


Feb 1 BRACKETOLOGY

Lunardi is still projecting 10 B1G teams


Iowa is STILL a 6 seed but NOW in the Midwest (Des Moines), will beat #11 St Johns in the 1st round and then beat #3 Kansas in the 2nd round. Iowa then will face/beat #2 North Carolina and #1 seed Tennessee to advance to the Final 4!!!

 
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If you want to make this thread better you’ll use Bracket Guy Dave’s Bracketology and seed lists. He’s the number one Bracketologist over the last five years. Lunardi on the other hands ranks 68th.. Hard to take any of his projections serious
 
If you want to make this thread better you’ll use Bracket Guy Dave’s Bracketology and seed lists. He’s the number one Bracketologist over the last five years. Lunardi on the other hands ranks 68th.. Hard to take any of his projections serious
Not disagreeing but where do you find him ranked first? I can’t find him on Bracket Matrix. FWIW, the top 2 guys there have us a 5.
 
I thought Iowa or ISU had to be at least a 4 seed to make it to Des Moines for the 1st 2 rounds

Is that wrong? Or does Lunardi not know this?
We could randomly get assigned to Des Moines against a higher seed. I was mocking Kansas as a 3 getting sent there and Iowa as the 6, for example...
 
Not disagreeing but where do you find him ranked first? I can’t find him on Bracket Matrix. FWIW, the top 2 guys there have us a 5.
If you click rankings he’s the second one there behind Delphi. Delphi only updates once every few days though. He is “Bracketville”
But his twitter is BracketGuyDave
 
If you click rankings he’s the second one there behind Delphi. Delphi only updates once every few days though. He is “Bracketville”
But his twitter is BracketGuyDave
Got it. We were talking about the same thing. Yeah Lunardi sucks and Palm is even worse. He’s damn near the bottom.
 
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JOE BOOZELL | NCAA.COM | FEBRUARY 9, 2019
NCAA bracketology: Let's break down the Top 16 for the men's tournament

Here is a full look at the top 16 teams if the season ended today, according to the Division I Men's Basketball Committee.

CURRENT SEED
1 Duke
1 Tennessee
1 Virginia
1 Gonzaga
------------------------------
2 Kentucky
2 Michigan
2 North Carolina
2 Michigan State
------------------------------
3 Purdue
3 Kansas
3 Houston
3 Marquette
------------------------------
4 Iowa State
4 Nevada
4 Louisville
4 Wisconsin


The 1-seeds were predictable, and it's hard to argue with any of them. Duke, Tennessee, Virginia and Gonzaga have a combined six losses between them and are the top four teams, in some order, in the NET rankings and the AP Poll.

ANDY KATZ PREDICTION: The complete March Madness field of 68 predicted after the Top 16 reveal

They've been the four most consistently dominant schools this year. And two of those losses came against other current 1-seeds; Virginia lost to Duke, while Duke fell to Gonzaga.

Duke, Tennessee, Virginia and Gonzaga all have outstanding resumes, and they look the part. All are legitimate national title contenders.

Move down to the 2-line, and you have more great teams, but they haven't been as consistently good as the 1s. Kentucky, for instance, has been playing like a 1 seed since about mid-December. But it struggled early on in a way that the top four teams haven't. The Wildcats are 12-1 since Dec. 15 with wins over North Carolina, Louisville, Auburn, Mississippi State, Kansas and Florida. That's incredible work, and nobody wants to play Kentucky right now. It could inch its way up to the 1-line by season's end. But for now, this is right.

The same goes for teams like Michigan and Michigan State. The Wolverines started off 17-0 but haven't looked as good in the last six games, falling to Wisconsin and Iowa. The Spartans, meanwhile, ripped off a 13-game win steak but are currently on a three-game skid. That includes a loss to Illinois, and Michigan State recently learned that Joshua Langford won't return this season.

Michigan State has done enough to justify a 2-seed at the moment, but the arrow is pointing down. Keep an eye on the Spartans the rest of the way. And North Carolina is sort of the anti-Michigan State: the Tar Heels were up and down until about a month ago, and they've won six straight games since. UNC has the talent to beat anyone.

Things get more interesting after the top two seed lines, and Kansas is an interesting inclusion as a three. The Jayhawks are ranked 18th in the NET and have really struggled lately. But their overall resume is still solid: Kansas banked wins over Michigan State, Marquette, Villanova and Tennessee early. Like Michigan State, we'll see if the Jayhawks can maintain this seeding. Because they've lost four of six and haven't looked right since Udoka Azubuike went down. Here's the committee's explanation on Kansas, which was close to nabbing a No. 2 seed:

“The final spot on the 2 line came down to Michigan State’s eight Quadrant 1 wins, five of which have come away from home,” said Muir. “While Kansas has a similar number of Quadrant 1 wins as the Spartans, we thought Kansas’s performance on the road, along with the unfortunate season-ending injury to Udoka Azubuike, kept the Jayhawks behind Purdue. At the same time, the abundance of quality wins kept Kansas in front of Houston."

NCAA.com college hoops home | NET rankings

It's also a bit surprising that Marquette is a 3-seed, but Villanova isn't in at all. The Wildcats rank higher than the Golden Eagles in the NET, and their records are identical. But Marquette notched nonconference wins over Wisconsin, Buffalo and Louisville, while Villanova really struggled before Big East play began.

Marquette and Villanova face each other on Saturday. Again, it's interesting to see how the committee views the top two squads in the Big East now, but there is a lot of basketball to be played before Selection Sunday. From the committee on Villanova:

"While a handful of teams were considered for the final spot, it eventually turned into a two-team race between Wisconsin and Villanova, and the Badgers ended up getting more votes based on having six Quadrant 1 wins, including four away from home.”

A note on the final seed line: Nevada as a four may seem low at first glance, and its 21-1 record is pristine. But it doesn't have the quality wins that the schools on the top three lines do. A four feels fine. Iowa State, Louisville and Wisconsin all deserve to be in that range, too.

Selection Sunday is just around the corner. March Madness can't come soon enough.



LINK to Full Article: https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketbal...tology-lets-break-down-top-16-mens-tournament
 
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Comparing the Selection Committee's Top 16 to the NET Top 16:

Rank..Select Comm.....NET
1......... Duke (E).............Virginia
2 .........Tenn(S)...............Gonzaga
3 .........Virginia (M)..........Duke
4 .........Gonzaga (W).......Tennessee
----------------------------------------------------
5 .........Kentucky(M).......Kentucky
6 .........Michigan(E)........Michigan
7 .........N Carolina(S)......Houston
8 .........Mich State(W).....North Carolina
----------------------------------------------------
9 .........Purdue(S)...........Michigan State
10 .........Kansas(W).......Virginia Tech
11 .........Houston(M).......Purdue
12 .........Marquette(E)....Wisconsin
----------------------------------------------------
13 .........Iowa State(E)....Iowa State
14 .........Nevada(S).........Louisville
15 .........Louisville(W)......Nevada
16 .........Wisconsin(M).....Texas Tech
 
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Comparing the Selection Committee's Top 16 to the NET Top 16:

Rank..Select Comm..NET
1......... Duke.............Virginia
2 .........Tenn..............Gonzaga
3 .........Virginia..........Duke
4 .........Gonzaga.......Tennessee
----------------------------------------------------
5 .........Kentucky.......Kentucky
6 .........Michigan.......Michigan
7 .........N Carolina.....Houston
8 .........Mich State.....North Carolina
----------------------------------------------------
9 .........Purdue...........Michigan State
10 .........Kansas........Virginia Tech
11 .........Houston.......Purdue
12 .........Marquette....Wisconsin
----------------------------------------------------
13 .........Iowa State....Iowa State
14 .........Nevada........Louisville
15 .........Louisville......Nevada
16 .........Wisconsin.....Texas Tech

initial observations:

Kansas is a 3 per Selection Committee but not a top 16 team per NET

Marquette is is a 3 per Selection Committee but not a top 16 team per NET

Conversely,

Texas Tech is #16 in NET but not a Top 16 team per the Selection Committee.

Virginia Tech is #10 in NET but not a Top 16 team per the Selection Committee.

Otherwise NET is close to what the Selection Committee is thinking
 
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With IA State losing at home to TCU, Iowa should pass them in the rankings, right?
Hard to say but it does give them 2 quad 2 losses to our 0. Their analytics are still much better than Iowa’s.
Andy Katz is implying that the Selection Committee views Iowa as somewhere between #17 and #20. This is why Katz has Iowa as a 5 seed.

Remember, the Selection Committee Chair was in attendance for the Iowa at IU game. Good timing & good luck for Iowa because I am guessing he might like this Iowa team and he might have conveyed to the committee that this Iowa team is not too bad.

Thoughts?
 
No NCAA tourney games in Eastern Iowa.

;)
it is interesting that the one guy said Iowa right now had a 20 percent chance of playing in Des Moines.

who knows? we keep winning, I guess it's possible!

and i do like that ISU lost today and we have the head to head over them so IF the Selection Committee were to choose between ISU & Iowa, I would hope they would make the right decision ;)
 
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Andy Katz is implying that the Selection Committee views Iowa as somewhere between #17 and #20. This is why Katz has Iowa as a 5 seed.

Remember, the Selection Committee Chair was in attendance for the Iowa at IU game. Good timing & good luck for Iowa because I am guessing he might like this Iowa team and he might have conveyed to the committee that this Iowa team is not too bad.

Thoughts?
The committee chair stated that Texas Tech was one of the teams in the mix for a 4 seed during the show. Katz has them as a 6. He does not speak for the committee. LSU, TTU, and Nova were the teams mentioned by the chair outside the 16.
 
just seems like a lot of moving parts before Selection Sunday

Did you see this article? They talk about not having Kansas playing in Kansas City & not having Louisville playing on their home court. How far does the Selection Committee go in order to not give teams an unfair home court advantage?

LINK: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/i...r-beater-reviews-tournament-no-final-decision

If I was a 3 seed that had to play Iowa in DSM I wouldn’t be too happy. But in my mind it would finally be payback for having to play WSU in Witchita as the higher seed in 81 or 82
 
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Here's how Iowa can earn its way to Des Moines:

https://www.hawkcentral.com/story/s...ournament-in-des-moines-heres-how/2807834002/


Feb 12 BRACKETOLOGY

Lunardi is STILL projecting 8 B1G teams. Debbie AND IU (first 4 out) are OUT!


Iowa is STILL a 6 seed but NOW in the West (Salt Lake City), will beat #11 UCF in the 1st round and then beat #3 Houston in the 2nd round. Iowa then will face/beat #2 Michigan and #1 seed Gonzaga to advance to the Final 4 in Minneapolis!!!



The 8 B1G teams:


Midwest (Virginia is #1 Seed)

04 Wisconsin
06 Maryland


West (Gonzaga is #1 Seed)

06 IOWA
02 Michigan

East (Duke is #1 Seed)

09 Ohio State
11 Minnesota (Last 4 Bye)
02 Michigan State

South (Tennessee is #1 Seed)

03 Purdue



LINK to ESPN Bracketology: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology



Feb 8 BRACKETOLOGY

Lunardi is NOW projecting 8 (instead of 10) B1G teams. Debbie AND IU (first 4 out) are OUT!

Iowa is STILL a 6 seed but NOW in the Midwest (Jacksonville), will beat #11 Florida in the 1st round and then beat #3 Louisville in the 2nd round. Iowa then will face/beat #2 Michigan and #1 seed Tennessee to advance to the Final 4 in Minneapolis!!!



The 8 B1G teams:

Midwest (Tennessee is #1 Seed)
5 Wisconsin (in Hartford)
6 Iowa (in Jacksonville)
2 Michigan (in Columbus)


West (Gonzaga is #1 Seed)
6 Maryland


East (Duke is #1 Seed)
9 Ohio State (Last 4 bye)
2 Michigan State


South (Virginia is #1 Seed)
3 Purdue
10 Minnesota (Last 4 bye)


LINK to ESPN Bracketology: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology


Feb 5 BRACKETOLOGY

Lunardi is NOW projecting 9 (instead of 10) B1G teams. Nebbie is OUT!


Iowa is STILL a 6 seed but NOW in the South (Tulsa), will beat #11 Wofford in the 1st round and then beat #3 Marquette in the 2nd round. Iowa then will face/beat #2 Michigan and #1 seed Virginia to advance to the Final 4 in Minneapolis!!!


LINK to ESPN Bracketology: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology


Feb 1 BRACKETOLOGY

Lunardi is still projecting 10 B1G teams


Iowa is STILL a 6 seed but NOW in the Midwest (Des Moines), will beat #11 St Johns in the 1st round and then beat #3 Kansas in the 2nd round. Iowa then will face/beat #2 North Carolina and #1 seed Tennessee to advance to the Final 4!!!
 
FWIW, the USA Today on Feb 11 also has Iowa as a 6 seed.

CLICK ON IMAGE FOR LARGER VIEW

aed36949-b11e-4278-bb54-4adda0683719-Bracket-2-12.jpg
 
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FWIW, the USA Today also has Iowa as a 6 seed.

CLICK ON IMAGE FOR LARGER VIEW

aed36949-b11e-4278-bb54-4adda0683719-Bracket-2-12.jpg
Was this today? LSU winning last night will push them into a top 4, they are undefeated on the road in the SEC. They are going to be a nasty match up for anyone with that size and that water bug point guard, who can drive on anyone. I think if they can avoid the Duke bracket they stand a very good shot at the final 4.

And as expected that loss by Michigan giving up 75 points last night dropped Iowa down 3 points in the NET.

Not only do teams need to worry about who wins and lose, but they also need to worry about both offensive and defensive efficiency.
 
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