New R v D Generic Poll out--BIG shift

binsfeldcyhawk2

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Huge shift in the generic polling.....bigger than I had thought.

Thanks Clarence?


In April, an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll found Republicans leading Democrats on the generic congressional ballot, 47 percent to 44 percent. In a new poll from the same outlet — conducted after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. WadeDemocrats now lead Republicans, 48 percent to 41 percent.
 

Colonoscopy

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Huge shift in the generic polling.....bigger than I had thought.

Thanks Clarence?


In April, an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll found Republicans leading Democrats on the generic congressional ballot, 47 percent to 44 percent. In a new poll from the same outlet — conducted after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. WadeDemocrats now lead Republicans, 48 percent to 41 percent.

Gallup polling on abortion saw a big bump on abortion after ruling as well.

May be transitory. I don't know how big events like Roe v Wade usually work polling wise.
 

kc78

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Huge shift in the generic polling.....bigger than I had thought.

Thanks Clarence?


In April, an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll found Republicans leading Democrats on the generic congressional ballot, 47 percent to 44 percent. In a new poll from the same outlet — conducted after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. WadeDemocrats now lead Republicans, 48 percent to 41 percent.
There are a ton of moderate Republicans who support abortion rights. They may oppose later term abortions. But a majority of this country, including both Republicans and Democrats support a woman's right to end a pregnancy, at least in the first trimester. It's only the Evangelical and Catholic fundamentalist sect who actively want it all overturned (For the most part). Seeing the Supreme Court become so aggressively activist is leaving even many Republicans I know furious.

There are several women in my neighborhood who have always been Republican who are absolutely furious and have vowed to take back what's been taken. I think the Republicans may have misplayed their hand.
 

binsfeldcyhawk2

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Gallup polling on abortion saw a big bump on abortion after ruling as well.

May be transitory. I don't know how big events like Roe v Wade usually work polling wise.
I'd think it'd tighten up after the dust settles but this is a huge issue for a good proportion of the folks that made up that shift. I highly doubt the R's can make up the lost ground. We'll see....
 

kc78

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Dobbs may have thrown the Dems a lifeline in November from complete annihilation but it still won’t be pretty.

The problem with Democrats is they don’t know how to win elections and/or capitalize on an opportunity. Their messaging is usually piss poor.
That is true. Democrats, when taken holistically and ignoring the fringes on the far left have much better ideas for the country, but they have shown a complete inability to actually put any of them into practice because they wilt at the first sign of resistance. They got so scared after Obamacare that they're afraid to do anything they actually believe in anymore because Republicans will call them names.

They just need to go hire a strong PR company to help them control their branding and messaging and then get somebody not named Pelosi in charge to get everyone all on the same page.
 

binsfeldcyhawk2

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There are a ton of moderate Republicans who support abortion rights. They may oppose later term abortions. But a majority of this country, including both Republicans and Democrats support a woman's right to end a pregnancy, at least in the first trimester. It's only the Evangelical and Catholic fundamentalist sect who actively want it all overturned (For the most part). Seeing the Supreme Court become so aggressively activist is leaving even many Republicans I know furious.

There are several women in my neighborhood who have always been Republican who are absolutely furious and have vowed to take back what's been taken. I think the Republicans may have misplayed their hand.
I'm pretty sure the R's would have preferred this decision came next year :(

Horrible timing politically.
 
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There are a ton of moderate Republicans who support abortion rights. They may oppose later term abortions. But a majority of this country, including both Republicans and Democrats support a woman's right to end a pregnancy, at least in the first trimester. It's only the Evangelical and Catholic fundamentalist sect who actively want it all overturned (For the most part). Seeing the Supreme Court become so aggressively activist is leaving even many Republicans I know furious.

There are several women in my neighborhood who have always been Republican who are absolutely furious and have vowed to take back what's been taken. I think the Republicans may have misplayed their hand.
Well said.
 

binsfeldcyhawk2

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You over estimate an average Americans attention span.
True....but this is a solid wedge issue that ain't going away by November.

No incentive, at all, for Schumer or the D's to try and bring up a baseline abortion bill now. Not after looking at this polling....it'd just let the R's off the hook politically.
 

globalhawk

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Huge shift in the generic polling.....bigger than I had thought.

Thanks Clarence?


In April, an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll found Republicans leading Democrats on the generic congressional ballot, 47 percent to 44 percent. In a new poll from the same outlet — conducted after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. WadeDemocrats now lead Republicans, 48 percent to 41 percent.
I am honestly surprised.
 

onlyTheObvious

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That is true. Democrats, when taken holistically and ignoring the fringes on the far left have much better ideas for the country, but they have shown a complete inability to actually put any of them into practice because they wilt at the first sign of resistance. They got so scared after Obamacare that they're afraid to do anything they actually believe in anymore because Republicans will call them names.

They just need to go hire a strong PR company to help them control their branding and messaging and then get somebody not named Pelosi in charge to get everyone all on the same page.
PR is the last thing they need. Just adds gas to the fire when they do nothing.

tax the rich. Did they?

Cheaper healthcare not a cost shift. Did they?

Do something. Let results do the talking. Make sure what you say is possible. If not, scale back the rhetoric to something that is possible.

hype isn’t winning a party anything that controlled two branches of government for two years.
 
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Colonoscopy

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It’s just my experience but have quite a few conservative female friends that are pissed.
Makes enough sense if public support for first trimester abortion (where almost all occur) was in the 60%+ range.

Going to be a chunk of conservatives who support it. And if it's a big issue to them... whoops.
 

StonesCat

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This was an issue that more mainstream Republicans loved to campaign on, because they honestly never thought it would come to pass. It got the base riled up. They never actually thought they'd be playing defense over abortion, which is why you're just hearing from the nuttier elements of the party about it now.
 

Herky T Hawk

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The biggest problem with the Dems is that they can't take advantage of a situation, like others have already said.

How many things are sitting in the Senate waiting to be voted on, but the Dems are afraid to bring it up because it will get filibustered? They don't understand that they are missing a prime opportunity. Get it on the record that the Repubs blocked the bill. Then use that record against them in the elections. Sitting around saying "we've tried nothing and we're all out of ideas" is not helping the Dems this November, or really in any election.

But importantly when forcing the issue with Repubs, don't get rid of the filibuster. That will come back to bite them in the rear in the future. Much like Harry Reid using the nuclear option for judicial appointees opened the door where McConnell could do the same for Supreme Court nominees leading to the situation where Trump could get through three "radical" justices with simple majority votes. It was idiotic to do it both times and now we're in a situation where judicial appointees don't have to be "moderate" enough to win votes from both sides of the aisle.
 
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FlickShagwell

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It’s just my experience but have quite a few conservative female friends that are pissed.
Glad they seem to be coming around; better late than never. But really? The ladies who vote for admitted face-eating leopards are suddenly upset that the face-eating leopards ate their faces? Republicans putting ideologues on the Supreme Court who’d legislate from the bench should surprise no one. They’ve never kept it a secret that’s what they wanted to do.
 

Huey Grey

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Dems are also more likely to vote now. Who knows what staying power this will have? But it seems like the Rs are hellbent on shitting the midterms down their legs. Massive inflation with a recession should be a slam dunk for the minority party.
 

tumorboy

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I'd think it'd tighten up after the dust settles but this is a huge issue for a good proportion of the folks that made up that shift. I highly doubt the R's can make up the lost ground. We'll see....
It's the turnout in the suburbs that Biden won last time. If that repeats but goes down ballot this time it's going to be about even again.
 
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SolarHawk

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I had a feeling the polls would reflect just how monumentally stupid this was of the court, and it looks like it has. The republicans have fvcked themselves hard with this one. A lot of women were able to look past "grab em by the p#ssy", but when it comes to their reproductive rights it seems that the line has been crossed.
 

Hoosierhawkeye

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If the Dems are right about how many people support Roe they should run on that issue in November.

This is a big ruling and a big change. Now abortion is on the ballot especially in races for state government. If the people are really that upset then the Dems can snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
 

tumorboy

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I had a feeling the polls would reflect just how monumentally stupid this was of the court, and it looks like it has. The republicans have fvcked themselves hard with this one. A lot of women were able to look past "grab em by the p#ssy", but when it comes to their reproductive rights it seems that the line has been crossed.
A ton of women have had relationships end with men because they were late with a period. That feeling of being alone and having no control can be eye opening.
 

kc78

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PR is the last thing they need. Just adds gas to the fire when they do nothing.

tax the rich. Did they?

Cheaper healthcare not a cost shift. Did they?

Do something. Let results do the talking. Make sure what you say is possible. If not, scale back the rhetoric to something that is possible.

hype isn’t winning a party anything that controlled two branches of government for two years.
That's why the second part of my statement was so necessary. Brand a consistent message (What they have now is a mess when it comes to messaging. What do D's truly believe? Who knows, it's all over the map). Then get someone with some actual ability to move the needle running the House and Senate. Pelosi and Schumer aren't it anymore.
 
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Hoosierhawkeye

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Dems should have Clarence Thomas's feelings about gay marriage, etc on a loop this November.

Meh not a good idea to run against Clarence Thomas. But you can run against the Republican running against you who will usually be pro-life.
 

tumorboy

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Meh not a good idea to run against Clarence Thomas. But you can run against the Republican running against you who will usually be pro-life.
Yes if the laws he proposed allows no restrictions or has a bounties on a person. Or how far further he/she wants to go . Some birth controls are considered abortion. I've seen it argued the pill is a form of it. If they say it will never happen. Well point to the Court's current makeup.
 
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