New R v D Generic Poll out--BIG shift

Jerome Silberman

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No one is voting for Clarence Thomas because he's not running for elected office. The election in November will be about who is going to be making laws on abortion (The state offices) and who will be confirming future SCOTUS justices (Senate)

Again if this is really as big of a winner as the Dems think it is with the population they should run on this issue heavily and they would win big.

The GOP went over their skis on this one with the extremity of the tools they used, and lies that were told, to achieve their goals. I see no issues with poi ting out the dangers of pointing out the ramifications of allowing ideologues to lifetime appointments of immense power.
 
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torbee

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Keep telling yourself that. LOL

Still 4 months from the election. The average American will shop for groceries 30+ times and pump gas in their car at least 20 times between now and then. That constant and reinfocing pain is going to TRUMP abortion frenzy at the ballot box.

The great liberal American vacation this summer is taking a road trip to a state that allows abortion (if yours doesn't) and thank Joe/Kamala/Nancy/Chuck S. for the high prices every time you eat, get gas or pay a motel bill on your trip.
Look at this jackass cheering for a recession and economic pain for his fellow Americans so his side can "win" despite championing demonstrably unpopular legislation.

What a country.
 

tumorboy

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This shifted the 2022 midterms to the left, in my opinion.

But they gotta be willing to play a little dirty, and least get a few things done in the next few months.
I think it will be right down the middle. Dems have to run 3 pts ahead just to break even with gerrymandering
 
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Hawk_82

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Both The dems and repubs are just playing games to see how they can 1. Win votes for the next election and 2. Bring in the most money from donors.

This is why Americans are effed. No one actually cares about the people who are affected by these policies.

As a moderate, this makes me not want to vote at all because i already dont believe anything either party says. It is distrust in the system that got Trump elected in the first place. 😳
 

Hoosierhawkeye

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The GOP went over their skis on this one with the extremity of the tools they used, and lies that were told, to achieve their goals. I see no issues with poi ting out the dangers of pointing out the ramifications of allowing ideologues to lifetime appointments of immense power.

I agree but Thomas isn't going anywhere. The message should be more of "Don't like this ruling? Don't want to see rulings like this in the future. Vote blue for a better SCOTUS." Or something like that.

Just my 2 cents from someone who's happy to see Roe go but realizes that getting rid of it might be unpopular.

But if it is unpopular the Dems need to turn this into an immediate ballot box win in November. Because we don't make laws or interpret them based on angry tweets and facebook posts.
 

Jerome Silberman

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I agree but Thomas isn't going anywhere. The message should be more of "Don't like this ruling? Don't want to see rulings like this in the future. Vote blue for a better SCOTUS." Or something like that.

Just my 2 cents from someone who's happy to see Roe go but realizes that getting rid of it might be unpopular.

But if it is unpopular the Dems need to turn this into an immediate ballot box win in November. Because we don't make laws or interpret them based on angry tweets and facebook posts.
I'd like to believe that, but the last few years make me skeptical.
 

joelbc1

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you can’t always get what you want!
The Dems should be flooding the airwaves between now and November with abortion issues, contraception, gay marriage, and a radical right wing Supreme Court.
I think this “contraception via mail” will be the next brave new venture tried by the many GOP controlled legislatures and eventually this too will end up in the Federal Court’s.
The GOP is in a unique position right now knowing any bag of shit they throw in front of the SC will probably be given a favorable review....but how far dare they push the envelope? “Contraception by mail” is certainly something the state’s feels need to control....how will they frame their test case? And IF they push....at what point does the American public feel they have crossed a bridge too far and push back?
 
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lucas80

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Huge shift in the generic polling.....bigger than I had thought.

Thanks Clarence?


In April, an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll found Republicans leading Democrats on the generic congressional ballot, 47 percent to 44 percent. In a new poll from the same outlet — conducted after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. WadeDemocrats now lead Republicans, 48 percent to 41 percent.
I think it might be too early to tell. It does take some time for the reality of the decision to be digested.
I will say that the dog finally caught the car, and a lot of GOP candidates are going to have to hot foot it around their answers. Now, lots of districts are not in doubt, but especially in senate races and governors races there will be the chance for Dems to exploit the decision.
And, it isn't just going to end here, as I have said. The reality is there will be a push by the zealots to ban contraception. There will be a push to make same sex marriage illegal. This decision was not popular, and what comes next will be even more unpopular.
 
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torbee

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As always, great perspective from The Atlantic:

The culture war raged most hotly from the ’70s to the next century’s ’20s. It polarized American society, dividing men from women, rural from urban, religious from secular, Anglo-Americans from more recent immigrant groups. At length, but only after a titanic constitutional struggle, the rural and religious side of the culture imposed its will on the urban and secular side. A decisive victory had been won, or so it seemed.

The culture war I’m talking about is the culture war over alcohol prohibition. From the end of Reconstruction to the First World War, probably more state and local elections turned on that one issue than on any other. The long struggle seemingly culminated in 1919, with the ratification of the Eighteenth Amendment and enactment by Congress of the National Prohibition Act, or the Volstead Act (as it became known). The amendment and the act together outlawed the manufacture and sale of alcoholic beverages in the United States and all its subject territories. Many urban and secular Americans experienced those events with the same feeling of doom as pro-choice Americans may feel today after the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade.

Only, it turns out that the Volstead Act was not the end of the story. As Prohibition became a nationwide reality, Americans rapidly changed their mind about the idea. Support for Prohibition declined, then collapsed. Not only was the Volstead Act repealed, in 1933, but the Constitution was further amended so that nobody could ever try such a thing ever again.

That’s where the story usually ends. But now let’s add one more chapter, the one most relevant to our present situation. When Prohibition did finally end, so too did the culture war over alcohol. Emotions that had burned fiercely for more than half a century sputtered out after 1933. Before and during Prohibition, alcohol had seemed a moral issue of absolute right and wrong. Between heaven and hell (as the prohibitionists told it), between liberty and tyranny (as the repealers regarded it), how could there be compromise?

 

torbee

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If you didn't read the entire Atlantic piece, this is the key takeaway and I'm praying it proves true again:

Prohibition and Dobbs were and are projects that seek to impose the values of a cohesive and well-organized cultural minority upon a diverse and less-organized cultural majority. Those projects can work for a time, but only for a time. In a country with a representative voting system—even a system as distorted in favor of the rural and conservative as the American system was in the 1920s and is again today—the cultural majority is bound to prevail sooner or later.

Pro-life politics in the United States used to be mostly posturing and positioning, the taking of extreme rhetorical positions at no real-world cost. Republicans in red states could enact bills that burdened women who sought abortions, knowing that many voters shrugged off these statutes and counted on the courts to protect women’s rights. Now the highest court has abdicated its protective role, and those voters will have to either submit to their legislature’s burdens or replace the legislators.


That will likely mean that every legislative race in every currently red state will become a referendum on how strictly to police the women of that state. If a Republican president is elected in 2024 and signs a national abortion restriction in 2025, then every House and Senate race will likewise become a referendum on policing women. I don’t imagine that will be a very comfortable situation for the pro-policing side. Republican politicians who indulged their pro-life allies as a low-cost way to mobilize voters who did not share the party’s economic agenda are about to discover that the costs have jumped, and that many of the voters who do share the party’s economic agenda care more about their intimate autonomy.

giphy.gif
 
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tumorboy

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If you didn't read the entire Atlantic piece, this is the key takeaway and I'm praying it proves true again:

Prohibition and Dobbs were and are projects that seek to impose the values of a cohesive and well-organized cultural minority upon a diverse and less-organized cultural majority. Those projects can work for a time, but only for a time. In a country with a representative voting system—even a system as distorted in favor of the rural and conservative as the American system was in the 1920s and is again today—the cultural majority is bound to prevail sooner or later.

giphy.gif
Look at weed for instance. Never thought I'd see the day. When openly buying and really having no fear of arrest would merely require an hour car drive.
 

TheCainer

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This was just monumentally stupid. If it ain’t broke…

ETA: I’m not strictly talking about from a political/midterms standpoint. This was just…frustrating. Unnecessary. Who is it truly helping? Ideologues and evangelicals, so they can have a “win”.
They own the Libs now.
 

blhawk

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PR is the last thing they need. Just adds gas to the fire when they do nothing.

tax the rich. Did they?

Cheaper healthcare not a cost shift. Did they?

Do something. Let results do the talking. Make sure what you say is possible. If not, scale back the rhetoric to something that is possible.

hype isn’t winning a party anything that controlled two branches of government for two years.
With fake Dems Manchin and Sinema they didn't really control shite
 

BeepBeepInMyJeep

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With a bear market and $5-6 gas and double digit inflation, the Republicans should be up by 15. This election should be a 2 foot putt.
 

fredjr82

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but the Dems have shown a complete inability to actually put any of them into practice because they wilt at the first sign of resistance.

And unfortunately, resistance is all the Cons have given in the last 15 years (outside of Trump). Anything to beat the Dems.
 

Hoosierhawkeye

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If the Dems really think this is that unpopular they should make this the issue of the campaign. It's a huge change and the winners get to write abortion laws.

If they lose then it's clear that the American people are at least comfortable with pro-life laws.
 

binsfeldcyhawk2

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If they lose then it's clear that the American people are at least comfortable with pro-life laws.
I think the polling shows the American public is comfortable with limitations on abortion...not abolition. That's the needle that needs to be threaded and I don't think either party does a good job of that....

I think the Dem position 25 years ago was correct safe, legal, rare....D's forgot the rare part....at least in the political rhetoric.
 

Hoosierhawkeye

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I think the polling shows the American public is comfortable with limitations on abortion...not abolition. That's the needle that needs to be threaded and I don't think either party does a good job of that....

I think the Dem position 25 years ago was correct safe, legal, rare....D's forgot the rare part....at least in the political rhetoric.

I would agree with it in terms of polling but polling doesn't write our laws or control who does. Elections do.

So if the Dems want to win they could come out, try to seem like the moderate ones and make abortion the issue of the campaign.

But I'm guessing a big part of the problem is that they won't try to seem like the moderate ones. Very few Dems are going to come out and say something like "I only want to protect abortion in the first trimester." No they are going to go all in on protecting abortion up to the point of birth and will attempt to defend that. And then they will lose to the guy who says he's going to outlaw all abortion except to save the mother's life.

One thing that I won't understand with the Dems is given the big opening the right has left for them on multiple fronts why they feel the need to go hard left on social issues.
 
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binsfeldcyhawk2

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I would agree with it in terms of polling but polling doesn't write our laws or control who does. Elections do.

So if the Dems want to win they could come out, try to seem like the moderate ones and make abortion the issue of the campaign.

But I'm guessing a big part of the problem is that they won't try to seem like the moderate ones. Very few Dems are going to come out and say something like "I only want to protect abortion in the first trimester." No they are going to go all in on protecting abortion up to the point of birth and will attempt to defend that. And then they will lose to the guy who says he's going to outlaw all abortion except to save the mother's life.

One thing that I won't understand with the Dems is given the big opening the right has left for them on multiple fronts why they feel the need to go hard left on social issues.
The problem for the R's is they can't thread the limitation v abolition needle. They've been preaching abolition to appease the base with Roe protecting them from the political consequences of that position. Now that's gone....

These trigger laws the state legislatures put in place when Roe was the law of the land are coming home to roost. Their abolition position is now untenable politically IMO. Publicly a lot of these R's are probably cheering the Supreme Court decision but privately....a lot of them are probably like "oh shit".
 
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torbee

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The problem for the R's is they can't thread the limitation v abolition needle. They've been preaching abolition to appease the base with Roe protecting them from the political consequences of that position. Now that's gone....

These trigger laws the state legislatures put in place when Roe was the law of the land are coming home to roost. Their abolition position is now untenable politically IMO. Publicly a lot of these R's are probably cheering the Supreme Court decision but privately....a lot of them are probably like "oh shit".
Proverbial case of the dog chasing the car finally clamping on to the bumper, hopefully we see the rights-taking GOP get run over.
 
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binsfeldcyhawk2

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Proverbial case of the dog chasing the car finally clamping on to the bumper, hopefully we see the rights-taking GOP get run over.
Yep...while Roe was in place abolition was a safe political stance for R's. Appease the base but suffer no consequences because Roe was in place.

Now? Pretty difficult to extricate themselves from that position. Just talking purple state R's here.

Elections are determined by percentage points in this country....purple state R's have an anchor around their necks.
 

Hoosierhawkeye

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The problem for the R's is they can't thread the limitation v abolition needle. They've been preaching abolition to appease the base with Roe protecting them from the political consequences of that position. Now that's gone....

These trigger laws the state legislatures put in place when Roe was the law of the land are coming home to roost. Their abolition position is now untenable politically IMO. Publicly a lot of these R's are probably cheering the Supreme Court decision but privately....a lot of them are probably like "oh shit".

Meh I don't think this moves the electoral needle much. While I thought I might be wrong when you posted this poll when someone pointed out that this poll typically over-represented the D vote vs other polls and the previous month had been a rare exception to that rule I am more convinced this won't move the needle. I mean the draft decision came out months ago and didn't move the needle. This is only confirmation of what we've known for months.

Also I think the Dems have the same problem . . . they have been preaching abortion on demand up until birth to appease the base. Now that abortion could be a top issue going into the election for the first time in a while, I don't think the D's are really all that prepared to win on the issue.

Even though I'm more towards the abolition side I admit that you are probably right that the majority are on the on demand in the first trimester only side. But neither side IMO is going to run on that. Quite frankly they can't. Gerrymandered districts and primaries pretty much force politicians to stake out one extreme or the other.
 

IaHawk44

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Vote red end up dead. Ask Ashli Babbitt, Rosanne Boyland and those who listened to Trump when he purposely downplayed Covid 19.
 

binsfeldcyhawk2

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Meh I don't think this moves the electoral needle much. While I thought I might be wrong when you posted this poll when someone pointed out that this poll typically over-represented the D vote vs other polls and the previous month had been a rare exception to that rule I am more convinced this won't move the needle. I mean the draft decision came out months ago and didn't move the needle. This is only confirmation of what we've known for months.

Also I think the Dems have the same problem . . . they have been preaching abortion on demand up until birth to appease the base. Now that abortion could be a top issue going into the election for the first time in a while, I don't think the D's are really all that prepared to win on the issue.

Even though I'm more towards the abolition side I admit that you are probably right that the majority are on the on demand in the first trimester only side. But neither side IMO is going to run on that. Quite frankly they can't. Gerrymandered districts and primaries pretty much force politicians to stake out one extreme or the other.
That's fair...

I just think this issue is a game changer for ? 2-4% of the population? That's enough to change elections with how evenly divided we are as a nation.
 

Hoosierhawkeye

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That's fair...

I just think this issue is a game changer for ? 2-4% of the population? That's enough to change elections with how evenly divided we are as a nation.

Meh I don't think this changes the votes of even 2% of the population.

I know a lot of people angry about this but I don't know any who's actually going to change their vote.

For example my brother is pro-choice. . . Will this change his vote? Nope guns come first to him. One of my cousin's kids is mad about this too but they are still all in for the R's.

And the leftists where just going to vote D anyway.

And heck I'm happy about this decision but it's not making me want to vote for Republicans.

Now I do think if the D's could stake out moderate positions on social issues (not just on abortion) they could potentially snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. But they won't do that. They are going to do what they always do. . . play to their tribe. So they will do things like complain about the protestors at an event that featured trans strippers performing in front of elementary aged children.
 
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kc78

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I'm not so sure....

I think some of these "trigger laws" in the states were put in place to appease the base but they always had Roe to keep them from happening. Well.....now they got what they "wanted" and will lose "moderate" support as a result. As almost all polling shows...a total ban ain't popular and isn't a winner politically. They made their bad and will have to lay in it...

Limitations? Sure....15 week ban...sure, they can win with that. Total ban is a loser however....
I agree. Most abortions by and far take place before 13 weeks. As long as you allow for later term when life is in danger, and maybe something for a minor who's health is in danger and was too afraid to say anything then I think by and large most people would be ok. But the desire to fully ban it is not a winning political play for anything more than the reddest of areas.
 

binsfeldcyhawk2

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Meh I don't think this changes the votes of even 2% of the population.

I know a lot of people angry about this but I don't know any who's actually going to change their vote.

For example my brother is pro-choice. . . Will this change his vote? Nope guns come first to him. One of my cousin's kids is mad about this too but they are still all in for the R's.

And the leftists where just going to vote D anyway.

And heck I'm happy about this decision but it's not making me want to vote for Republicans.

Now I do think if the D's could stake out moderate positions on social issues (not just on abortion) they could potentially snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. But they won't do that. They are going to do what they always do. . . play to their tribe. So they will do things like complain about the protestors at an event that featured trans strippers performing in front of elementary aged children.
Fair....I just think not matter how you shake it out it's a net - for the R's....what that percentage is is up for debate.
 

binsfeldcyhawk2

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I agree. Most abortions by and far take place before 13 weeks. As long as you allow for later term when life is in danger, and maybe something for a minor who's health is in danger and was too afraid to say anything then I think by and large most people would be ok. But the desire to fully ban it is not a winning political play for anything more than the reddest of areas.
I agree.... just think there's a weakness to be exploited for the D's in the "restriction" realm but the R's are ill placed to exploit it because of their abolition stance.

The abolition stance was propped up by Roe (never gonna happen) and now that Roe is gone they're stuck with it.
 

phantom_204

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Dobbs may have thrown the Dems a lifeline in November from complete annihilation but it still won’t be pretty.

The problem with Democrats is they don’t know how to win elections and/or capitalize on an opportunity. Their messaging is usually piss poor.
I've always thought the biggest issue the Dems have is they always seem to lose the messaging battle. While Friday's ruling was monumental, we knew it was coming. The scariest thing about Friday was Thomas's signal that the court wants to push even farther right. I'm sure some will disagree, but yesterday's ruling didn't do anything to alleviate fears of that push to the right.
 

sober_teacher

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I agree.... just think there's a weakness to be exploited for the D's in the "restriction" realm but the R's are ill placed to exploit it because of their abolition stance.

The abolition stance was propped up by Roe (never gonna happen) and now that Roe is gone they're stuck with it.

If nothing else it blunts the GOP momentum. They’re still likely to win the House imo, but I think the Senate could move into tossup territory or lean Dem.

I’ve always thought a split decision to be the most likely scenario geopolitical map favors the Dems with fewer of their seats being defended.
 

binsfeldcyhawk2

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If nothing else it blunts the GOP momentum. They’re still likely to win the House imo, but I think the Senate could move into tossup territory or lean Dem.

I’ve always thought a split decision to be the most likely scenario geopolitical map favors the Dems with fewer of their seats being defended.
Agree...but I think the house is a toss up. Right now....economy continues to tank it's probably R.