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Hurricane season has arrived....

Track nudged a bit south, especially the north side of the cone.

152937_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

No bueno. Stay north you bastard.
 
No bueno. Stay north you bastard.
Ok, I'm going to ask a question as a guy who lives 2k miles away.

I want you all to be safe. From a safety of human lives perspective is it better for this thing to head south and try to hit the land between Tampa and Miami or hit Tampa head on and hope it dies before Orlando?


-flatlander
 
Ok, I'm going to ask a question as a guy who lives 3k miles away.

I want you all to be safe. From a safety of human lives perspective is it better for this thing to head south and try to hit the land between Tampa and Miami or hit Tampa head on and hope it dies before Orlando?


-flatlander

My mother is in Ft Myers, so I would prefer the hurricane go elsewhere.
 
Ok, I'm going to ask a question as a guy who lives 3k miles away.

I want you all to be safe. From a safety of human lives perspective is it better for this thing to head south and try to hit the land between Tampa and Miami or hit Tampa head on and hope it dies before Orlando?


-flatlander

SOUTH! Much more sparsely populated south of Tampa and on the other side, south of Orlando.
 
Ok, I'm going to ask a question as a guy who lives 2k miles away.

I want you all to be safe. From a safety of human lives perspective is it better for this thing to head south and try to hit the land between Tampa and Miami or hit Tampa head on and hope it dies before Orlando?


-flatlander

A direct hit on Tampa Bay or even a little bit north would be much more catastrophic in terms of lives and property.
 
In the 1970s "disaster" film genre, Earthquake! featured a minor character who was a drunk. During the big quake scene, he's sitting at the bar as if nothing is happening while everyone else is falling on the floor, getting hit by debris, etc.

I have a friend whose grandfather put his wife in a lifeboat and then went to the bar with the rest of the guys as the Andrea Doria sank until they were eventually rescued
 
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From a property damage standpoint - and for risk to human life - the best case is certainly the path of Idalia and Helene, hitting the "Big Bend" area 100 miles north of Tampa. Multiple reasons...far less population, lots of woods and marshland. Oh, and most places there are already trashed from Helene - they got flooded and have not had time to even begin to think about rebuilding, so insurance only has to pay out once
 
From a property damage standpoint - and for risk to human life - the best case is certainly the path of Idalia and Helene, hitting the "Big Bend" area 100 miles north of Tampa. Multiple reasons...far less population, lots of woods and marshland. Oh, and most places there are already trashed from Helene - they got flooded and have not had time to even begin to think about rebuilding, so insurance only has to pay out once

Yeah, but that's not happening with this one. But it would certainly be better if it barrels across Fort Pierce instead of Titusville.
 
Yeah...you might want to check the thread.


So sad, huh?

They DID get the necessities, of course. Wine...

...and smokes.

🤣
THIS is what you call whining?

I need to introduce you to Mrs. Ed.
Ok, I'm going to ask a question as a guy who lives 2k miles away.

I want you all to be safe. From a safety of human lives perspective is it better for this thing to head south and try to hit the land between Tampa and Miami or hit Tampa head on and hope it dies before Orlando?


-flatlander
Neither is better. If it goes south, it'll undo all the work done the last two years after Ian wiped out Ft. Myers/Cape Coral. It goes straight and it devastates Tampa. It would be best if it would go farther north and hit Gainesville. The "human life" there isn't worth saving.
 


UPDATE: New evening consensus model is in. For our Southwest Florida community, still recovering from Ian 2 years ago, this is crushing. Models have adjusted south again. Magenta is the most recent, Red is 12 hours ago, Orange is 24 hours ago. Small adjustments, both north or south possible, but the trend has not been our friend. Prepare for life-threatening storm surge in Southwest Florida Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. #Milton
 
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