New R v D Generic Poll out--BIG shift

sober_teacher

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Agree...but I think the house is a toss up. Right now....economy continues to tank it's probably R.

Agreed, for Dems to keep the House they need good economic news otherwise I don’t fancy their chances - if only due to history of midterms. Would be surprised if it’s a huge pickup by GOP tho.

A small part of me wants to see that just to see McCarthy have to ride herd on his caucus.
 
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tumorboy

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Agreed, for Dems to keep the House they need good economic news otherwise I don’t fancy their chances - if only due to history of midterms. Would be surprised if it’s a huge pickup by GOP tho.

A small part of me wants to see that just to see McCarthy have to ride herd on his caucus.
Not sure McCarthy will be the choice. Starting to lean towards Jim Jordan.
 

binsfeldcyhawk2

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Agreed, for Dems to keep the House they need good economic news otherwise I don’t fancy their chances - if only due to history of midterms. Would be surprised if it’s a huge pickup by GOP tho.

A small part of me wants to see that just to see McCarthy have to ride herd on his caucus.
I’m the rare split government fan so I wouldn’t mind this scenario….
 

alaskanseminole

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I'd expect that to shrink if the economy keeps hurting but I think the "Red wave" ain't happening.
What needs to happen is the States need to support abortion rights under the compromising terms of rape, incest, and baby/mother's health and limit to under 12 weeks. If the red & blue states would do that AND put forth legislation for social programs that support single moms and holds absent father's accountable, we could have a lot of win because if I'm understanding RvW it should have never been a ruling from a constitutional perspective.
 

binsfeldcyhawk2

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What needs to happen is the States need to support abortion rights under the compromising terms of rape, incest, and baby/mother's health and limit to under 12 weeks. If the red & blue states would do that AND put forth legislation for social programs that support single moms and holds absent father's accountable, we could have a lot of win because if I'm understanding RvW it should have never been a ruling from a constitutional perspective.
Reasonable….ain’t gonna happen though.

Hard core base would see that as a betrayal IMO.

Politically that’s what R’s need to do but they can’t.
 
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Hoosierhawkeye

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Fair....I just think not matter how you shake it out it's a net - for the R's....what that percentage is is up for debate.

I think the percentage is so small at this point that it doesn't move the needle.

You ran into anyone who has expressed regrets about voting for Trump just because of this?

No no if everything that has happened between 2016 and now doesn't change your mind you arn't going to change your mind due to this.
 

binsfeldcyhawk2

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I think the percentage is so small at this point that it doesn't move the needle.

You ran into anyone who has expressed regrets about voting for Trump just because of this?

No no if everything that has happened between 2016 and now doesn't change your mind you arn't going to change your mind due to this.
Maybe…we’ll see
 

phantom_204

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You ran into anyone who has expressed regrets about voting for Trump just because of this?

No no if everything that has happened between 2016 and now doesn't change your mind you arn't going to change your mind due to this.
Yes, I actually have ... especially if you combine the Dobbs ruling (and Thomas's signal he'd like to see other cases reviewed) combined with the January 6. It's not going to make the hardcore Trump supporter change, but for the people that thought abortion, gay rights, etc were settled issues (especially women), it's not surprising some would regret the vote. Especially when Trump was bragging that the Dobbs ruling happened because of justices he appointed.
 
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Hoosierhawkeye

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Yes, I actually have ... especially if you combine the Dobbs ruling (and Thomas's signal he'd like to see other cases reviewed) combined with the January 6. It's not going to make the hardcore Trump supporter change, but for the people that thought abortion, gay rights, etc were settled issues (especially women), it's not surprising some would regret the vote. Especially when Trump was bragging that the Dobbs ruling happened because of justices he appointed.

I havn't run into anyone like that.

I think most everyone knew that this was the intent of the GOP to some extent. I'm just more or less surprised that the justices had the courage to pull the trigger instead of do what Roberts wanted which was basically to allow states to reduce the timeline.
 

sober_teacher

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Jim Jordan would be a catastrophe for the R’s….so he’ll probably be speaker
The trouble for the GOP is they dont really have a congressman that I think really fits the bill to be a good speaker. Ryan got the job last time because the freedom caucus crew wouldnt go for McCarthy after Boehner stepped down, so he’s spent the last four years trying to cozy up to them for their support. And personally, I always had the sense that Ryan was an excellent conservative policy wonk and never enjoyed being the Speaker. To be fair, after Pelosi and McConnell retire or die, I have no idea who the new generation of congressional leaders are that would be nearly as skilled as either of those two are.

we’re seeing now I think that republicans now realize that politically, choosing to not cooperate with the 1/6 committee, especially the originally proposed one that would have had equal participation from both sides, was a mistake. Especially after basically excommunicating Kinzinger and Cheney, they’ve had no one in the room to give them info about what’s going on, so they’re reacting to everything on the fly.
 

INXS83

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Just an opinion...you could be right. These elections are won by just a few percentage points though. At the very least it tightens things up from what was looking like a sure fire ass whoopin for the Dems...

Guarantee you R leadership is worried....no matter what they say publicly.
At the end of the day 'it's the economy, stupid" rules. Abortion rights (or lack thereof) outrage won't help you put gas in the car, food on the table and clothes on you or your kids backs. The people (D's) who liberalized our abortion laws are the same effers who now have overspent, kept us locked down too long and have extreme prejudice against fossil fuels, ramping up inflation.

Think of the senior voters. Is some blue-haired old gal with a dried up uterus going to lobby a protest vote to the overturning of Roe v. Wade or cast her vote because her social security check isn't nearly paying the bills anymore?
 

binsfeldcyhawk2

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At the end of the day 'it's the economy, stupid" rules. Abortion rights (or lack thereof) outrage won't help you put gas in the car, food on the table and clothes on you or your kids backs. The people (D's) who liberalized our abortion laws are the same effers who now have overspent, kept us locked down too long and have extreme prejudice against fossil fuels, ramping up inflation.

Think of the senior voters. Is some blue-haired old gal with a dried up uterus going to lobby a protest vote to the overturning of Roe v. Wade or cast her vote because her social security check isn't nearly paying the bills anymore?
I get that but the abortion issue only has to sway a small percentage to make a big difference. Toss up/purple elections are usually decided by a percentage pt or two...

A the end of the day I think this is a net - for the R's but to what degree is definitely up for debate....we'll see.
 

phantom_204

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I havn't run into anyone like that.

I think most everyone knew that this was the intent of the GOP to some extent. I'm just more or less surprised that the justices had the courage to pull the trigger instead of do what Roberts wanted which was basically to allow states to reduce the timeline.
These are people that voted for Trump instead of Hillary and justified the vote as they weren't voting against gay rights, abortion, or the negative stuff because that wasn't going to happen anyway. Now, because the vote for Trump stacked SCOTUS (which I think people underestimated) there is some buyer's remorse.
 

BioHawk

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It's still early for these polls to mean much about November, but it clearly indicates there has been a shift in the electorate.
 

KFsdisciple

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It’s just my experience but have quite a few conservative female friends that are pissed.
If they’re upset the SCOTUS returned abortion rights to the states, they’re not conservative. They might be republicans but they aren’t conservatives.
 

sober_teacher

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I wouldn't be surprised if the D's gain in the Senate...R's screwed the pooch with the candidates in the toss up races...Herschel Walker? Dr Oz? GTFO

You would think but both are considered toss ups right now. Although Fetterman appears to be more likely to win than Warnock.

At the very least republicans are going to have to work ALOT harder in those races than expected, especially in Georgia, which probably represents their best opportunity to pick up a seat. Could open the door to gains elsewhere if they have to spend even more than expected in those seats.
 
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binsfeldcyhawk2

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A new poll of the 56 most competitive battleground House districts found that Republicans hold a four-point advantage — 46% to 42% — on the generic congressional ballot.

Why it matters: Despite several recent polls showing incremental gains by Democrats, the reality is that the political environment remains favorable for Republicans.

Driving the news: The survey, conducted by Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio and Biden pollster John Anzalone for the AARP, indicates former President Trump is on average significantly more popular than President Biden in these swing districts.

  • Biden's job approval sits at just 37%, with 61% disapproving of his performance.
  • 50% of voters approve of Trump — higher than in other recent polls — while 49% disapprove.
The poll also found a gaping disconnect between the priorities of Democratic and Republican voters.

  • Half of Republicans polled rated economic issues as their top priority in this year's midterms, with immigration a distant second at 16%.
  • For Democrats, just 26% rated economic issues as most important, with abortion (20%) and voting rights (13%) ranking close behind.
  • Respondents rated Republicans as the party best equipped to deal with economic concerns, crime and immigration, while Democrats held the advantage on abortion, health care and Social Security.
Between the lines: This is the latest in a string of surveys showing Democrats losing ground with nonwhite voters, particularly Hispanics and Asian Americans.

  • The poll found Democrats only hold a three-point lead on the congressional ballot among Asian Americans over 50, and a five-point lead among Hispanics over 50.
Yes, but: In races in which Republicans nominate weak or extreme candidates, individual Democrats will have an opportunity to run ahead of their party.




 

Hoosierhawkeye

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A new poll of the 56 most competitive battleground House districts found that Republicans hold a four-point advantage — 46% to 42% — on the generic congressional ballot.

Why it matters: Despite several recent polls showing incremental gains by Democrats, the reality is that the political environment remains favorable for Republicans.

Driving the news: The survey, conducted by Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio and Biden pollster John Anzalone for the AARP, indicates former President Trump is on average significantly more popular than President Biden in these swing districts.

  • Biden's job approval sits at just 37%, with 61% disapproving of his performance.
  • 50% of voters approve of Trump — higher than in other recent polls — while 49% disapprove.
The poll also found a gaping disconnect between the priorities of Democratic and Republican voters.

  • Half of Republicans polled rated economic issues as their top priority in this year's midterms, with immigration a distant second at 16%.
  • For Democrats, just 26% rated economic issues as most important, with abortion (20%) and voting rights (13%) ranking close behind.
  • Respondents rated Republicans as the party best equipped to deal with economic concerns, crime and immigration, while Democrats held the advantage on abortion, health care and Social Security.
Between the lines: This is the latest in a string of surveys showing Democrats losing ground with nonwhite voters, particularly Hispanics and Asian Americans.

  • The poll found Democrats only hold a three-point lead on the congressional ballot among Asian Americans over 50, and a five-point lead among Hispanics over 50.
Yes, but: In races in which Republicans nominate weak or extreme candidates, individual Democrats will have an opportunity to run ahead of their party.





A 4 point advantage is a lot smaller than I expected. What is more shocking and sad IMO is how popular Trump is to them.
 

B1GDeal

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None of this means crap until we turn the calendar to Oct 1st. It will be around then we will get a much better idea of where things stand. Until then it's all just guessing games and opinions that change with the news cycle. What will be the October bomb each side drops and how will voters react?
 

INXS83

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A new poll of the 56 most competitive battleground House districts found that Republicans hold a four-point advantage — 46% to 42% — on the generic congressional ballot.

Why it matters: Despite several recent polls showing incremental gains by Democrats, the reality is that the political environment remains favorable for Republicans.

Driving the news: The survey, conducted by Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio and Biden pollster John Anzalone for the AARP, indicates former President Trump is on average significantly more popular than President Biden in these swing districts.

  • Biden's job approval sits at just 37%, with 61% disapproving of his performance.
  • 50% of voters approve of Trump — higher than in other recent polls — while 49% disapprove.
The poll also found a gaping disconnect between the priorities of Democratic and Republican voters.

  • Half of Republicans polled rated economic issues as their top priority in this year's midterms, with immigration a distant second at 16%.
  • For Democrats, just 26% rated economic issues as most important, with abortion (20%) and voting rights (13%) ranking close behind.
  • Respondents rated Republicans as the party best equipped to deal with economic concerns, crime and immigration, while Democrats held the advantage on abortion, health care and Social Security.
Between the lines: This is the latest in a string of surveys showing Democrats losing ground with nonwhite voters, particularly Hispanics and Asian Americans.

  • The poll found Democrats only hold a three-point lead on the congressional ballot among Asian Americans over 50, and a five-point lead among Hispanics over 50.
Yes, but: In races in which Republicans nominate weak or extreme candidates, individual Democrats will have an opportunity to run ahead of their party.




Did you see the new Iowa Poll as reported in the DMR on Thursday? Reynolds +17 and Grassley +9 over Franken.
 
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sober_teacher

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None of this means crap until we turn the calendar to Oct 1st. It will be around then we will get a much better idea of where things stand. Until then it's all just guessing games and opinions that change with the news cycle. What will be the October bomb each side drops and how will voters react?

Another thing to consider is obviously where the economy is - gas prices have fallen steadily for the past month, could it get to $3 or even lower by November?
 
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